Colombia: Venezuela Lurches Towards Collapse

In Venezuela the government use of force and media shutdowns have not halted the growing anti-government demonstrations. So far at least 15 (all demonstrators) have been killed and over 150 (mostly demonstrators) wounded. The government has arrested nearly 600 people. There are growing desertions from the security forces, because the demonstrations are caused by problems (inflation, unemployment, crime, shortages) that everyone can see but the government downplays and continues, as it has for years, to insist that solutions are just around the corner. The government refuses to respond to protestor demands that the government do something effective to address all these self-inflicted problems. Despite government efforts to play down a lot of these problems the growing shortages of staple goods (food products and even things like toilet paper) and the soaring crime rate are things people are forced to deal with every day. Most Venezuelans know that, government propaganda to the contrary, Venezuela has the highest murder rate in the world. Over 25,000 Venezuelans were murdered last year and there is growing popular anger against a government that will not or cannot act to make things better. The government is afraid of a revolution and may have made that more possible by forming a large armed militia to help deal with unrest. But many members of these militias, as well as soldiers and policemen, are also hurting from the crime and growing economic problems. At the moment, the situation for the Venezuelan government does not look promising.

 

 

In Cuba peace talks between FARC and Colombia resumed. The focus is now how to deal with the drug trade. FARC wants legalized production of coca leaf (for cocaine), opium poppies (for heroin) and marijuana as a way to deal with the drug problem.

 

 

Many in the government are sympathetic to this but realize that the U.S. and European countries that are on the receiving end of these powerful narcotics are not. FARC is desperate to maintain its income. Once the peace deal is done the government expects FARC to exit all its criminal activities (drugs, extortion, theft and kidnapping.) That will mean FARC will lose most of its personnel, as many members are mainly in it for the money.  But if some of FARC’s drug operations are legalized, the leftist group will be much better off.

 

 

FARC is eager to achieve a final peace deal sooner rather than later. That’s because the security forces continue to do major damage to FARC and the drugs gangs the leftist rebels work with. To make matters worse American efforts to cripple drug gang and FARC access to the international banking system continue to increase their effectiveness. FARC is not in imminent danger of falling apart, but the trends continue to work against long-term survival of the rebel group.

 

 

February 25, 2014: The U.S. expelled three Venezuelan diplomats in response to the February 17^th Venezuelan expulsion of three American diplomats. The Venezuelan government blames the United States, and other foreign agitators, for causing the growing anti-government demonstrations.

 

 

February 24, 2014:  Venezuela has shut down Internet access in an effort to halt the spread news of the growing anti-government demonstrations. The government has taken control of most electronic media, or shut down what it could not control. That left the Internet as the main source of information the government did not approve of. In addition to the Internet the government also shut down the few remaining independent media outlets that were reporting on the demonstrations along with foreign outlets that were allowed to broadcast in Venezuela.

 

 

February 21, 2014: The Venezuelan government expelled four CNN journalists and accused the American cable network of spreading lies about the escalating unrest in Venezuela. In effect, the government is telling foreign media to either adopt a pro-government line or face expulsion. For the last few weeks the best sources of what is happening in Venezuela is coming from news organizations outside the country.

In the east (near the Venezuelan border and the Atlantic coast) two bomb attacks on a new Colombian pipeline failed to do any damage.

 

 

February 19, 2014: In neighboring Venezuela the spreading anti-government demonstrations led the government to try violent suppression. Pro-government militias attacked the peaceful demonstrators and the security forces sought to arrest protest leaders. This left at least four demonstrators dead and many more wounded. This did not discourage the demonstrators and they kept assembling for daily protests and more and more towns and cities had demonstrations as well.

 

 

February 18, 2014: The commander of the Colombian military was fired because the hel was overheard in a phone conversation complaining about investigations and prosecutions of military personnel for corruption and abuse of power (especially the use of death squads). His phone was tapped because of a corruption investigation. There were also recent revelations of corruption in the military and of military personnel illegally eavesdropping on FARC negotiators to the peace talks. While the dismissed general was not personally accused of any wrongdoing, his management style and attitudes were deemed ineffective and unacceptable. Four other senior generals were also dismissed on suspicion of being involved in the corruption (kickbacks on contracts) or eavesdropping on the FARC peace negotiators. The elected politicians, particularly the president, are under pressure to continue and increase efforts to deal with corruption. This included unauthorized spying efforts by government intelligence agencies.

 

 

February 17, 2014: In the north (Antioquia province) FARC gunmen attacked a group of police engaged in destroying coca (the source of cocaine) plants. The ambush left five policemen dead and three wounded.

 

 

February 15, 2014: In Venezuela the government has been limiting the ability of people to use the Internet. The government is trying to prevent images of the demonstrations from spreading. The official government line is that the demonstrations are a minor nuisance and not worthy of any media attention. A popular TV news channel from Colombia was also blocked.

 

 

February 12, 2014: In Venezuela large demonstrations began in the capital, to protest the growing inflation, unemployment and shortages of staple goods. Opposition politicians called for similar demonstrations all over the country. A growing number of Venezuelans are fed up with the inept government response to all the economic problems (caused by 15 years of efforts to create a state controlled economy).

 

 

February 6, 2014: Colombia has agreed to cooperate with Venezuela to curb smuggling operations along their mutual border. This is more symbolic than real because the border is vast, largely in thinly populated forest areas and the smugglers have been at it for generations and are quick to adapt. Venezuela has long resisted calls for joint efforts but now, with the growing shortages inside Venezuela the smugglers are seen as a political threat because the smugglers are providing what the government cannot and getting rich at it.

 

 

February 1, 2014: In the southwest (Narino), navy security personnel seized twenty hand grenades destined for use in FARC terror attacks. A local government policy of paying cash rewards (up to $5,000) for information on FARC activities apparently played a role in this particular operation.

Venezuela main purchaser of weapons in 2012, but Brazil has largest defence budget

The defence industry is booming in Latin America amid economic growth and greater concerns regarding national security, said the renowned security and defence consultancy firm IHS Jane's. Imports of weapons soared 16% in the subcontinent in 2008-2012, climbing from 3.42 billion to 3.96 billion dollars annually, the firm said in a report called “The Balance of Trade.”

 A display of Venezuelan military power

The report said Venezuela imported some 1.2bn in 2012, surpassing Brazil, the country with the largest defence budget in the region. The document highlighted that the trend may continue even after the demise of former President Hugo Chávez.

IHS Jane's analyst Ben Moores said that Venezuela was halfway in its rearmament program and that it would be very costly to drop it.

The US remains the top defence supplier in the region, with 758.52 million dollars in 2012. But Russia, particularly thanks to sales to Venezuela, stood behind the US with 730.8 million.

In May, the Russian government weapons exporting firm Rosoboronex stated that Venezuela's arms contracts amounted to 11 billion dollars, thus turning Russia into the second largest seller of arms to the region.

Brazil has the largest defence budget with 30.6bn dollars in 2012, which is three times more than Colombia’s 12.9bn and more than five fold Mexico’s 5.8bn and Venezuela’s 5.5bn.
 

Venezuelan army enters crime fight; revolution orders toilet paper

Venezuela’s army has been deployed to fight organised crime, which new president Nicolas Maduro has called the greatest threat to the country. Three thousand soldiers of the national armed forces are spread around the capital Caracas as part of a plan launched earlier this week, called ‘Safe Homeland’.

In one neighbourhood with a high crime rate, a programme commander described the mission now entrusted to men trained for war: “The Venezuelan Bolivarian national police and military police will work body and soul to protect the people and guarantee their safety, as they deserve.”

Opposition critics say promoting social order is a matter for civilian institutions to work on. The government said this is a short-term measure to guarantee the conditions for peace and justice. According to the UN, Venezuela has the world’s fifth-highest homicide rate.

In 2012, the government says the country had more than 16,000 murders. One non-official source says there were far more: well over 21,000.

In a recent survey, the Gallup institute said it found that public fear had remained remarkably high over the past six years, suggesting that the Chavez government, before Maduro, left important aspects of governance unaddressed.

Gallup and other observers also cite Chavez’s stance toward businesses as threatening. The state’s role in the economy, such as through nationalisation and controlling prices, has contributed to acute shortages of basic consumer goods.

One Caracas shopper said: “I have spent two weeks looking for toilet paper. The army guys on the street told me there was some here, so here I am, queuing up.” 

Maduro is blaming what he calls anti-government forces for intentionally destabilising supply. 

Economists say government controls on foreign currency don’t help, and that goods go where people can afford them. Here’s another government bid to cover itself.

Minister for Commerce Alejandro Fleming says: “The revolution will import 50 million rolls of toilet paper in the coming days. We’ll be getting the first shipment this Friday of 20 million rolls, to cover the demand for one week, or even more than a week.”

Companies don’t have free access to foreign currencies, which they need to pay to import consumables, raw materials, equipment and parts. There was a clampdown when Chavez began expropriating land and assets ten years ago and people tried to get their capital out. Now many less well-off Venezuelans are hitting the wall.

Maduro declares electricity ‘emergency’ and calls the Army in support

 President Nicolas Maduro's government declared a 90-day “emergency” in Venezuela's electricity sector this week to speed up infrastructure work and equipment imports needed to prevent politically-contentious power cuts

Officials have blamed periodic blackouts on sabotage and excessive consumption, while critics say the sector is suffering from poor management and inefficiency following the late popular leader Hugo Chavez's nationalization of the sector.

Maduro, who won a vote to succeed his former mentor Chavez this month, has promised a government of “efficiency” to tackle day-to-day problems like power outages plaguing the 29 Venezuelans, especially in the provinces.

A decree in the official Gazette ordered state power company Corpolec to adopt “all technical and economic” measures necessary to maintain electricity services, and authorized the army to guard key installations against “vandalism and attacks.”

Power rationing has returned to some states, reviving memories of a prolonged crisis in the sector in 2010 that weighed on Chavez's popularity at the time.

Saying Venezuela now had the highest per capita consumption in Latin America Maduro has announced a new national “Electricity Mission” to stabilize the sector.

“If we don't balance this investment in generation with more rational use of energy, it's difficult to keep a system like this stable,” said his newly appointed Electricity Minister Jesse Chacon, explaining the measures and calling for a nationwide electricity-saving drive.
 

Chavez in critical condition with three months to live, says Venezuelan doctor

Venezuelan doctor Jose Rafael Marquina, who is based in the US and is known for his accurate prognoses on President Hugo Chavez’s health, told a local Florida radio that the Venezuelan leader Chavez has “between two and three months to live”

Dr Jose Rafael Marquina says he strongly suggested having treatment in the US and not in Cuba because they lack experience in his kind of cancer

“The disease has entered an aggressive stage. He has metastases in the lumbar area, compressing nerves around the lumbar area of his backbone, which may lead to paralysis,” said Marquina, who claims to have access to first-hand sources and information about the president’s health.

“I feel I must say the truth. It was anticipated that Chavez condition would rapidly deteriorate in December. It is very sad news”, added Marquina.

The scientist revealed that during the electoral campaign Chavez was already in a very delicate condition but supported the pain with drugs stronger than morphine. He added that he repeatedly suggested to Chavez to travel to the US since in Cuba ‘they have no experience in these cases”.

Peruvian oncologist and long established in the US, Elmer Huerta coincided with the diagnosis of his peer Marquina saying the cancer was in a ‘terminal phase’ and surgery was only ‘palliative’. He added that as the disease advances the patient could suffer dementia in the coming weeks.

“The fact he is on mechanical respiration and with a sceptic shock gives an idea of how serious the patient’s situation is”, added Huerta.

Currently he is being treated with several antibiotics “but we must wait 72 hours to see if the patient reacts to treatment. This same infectious process leads to a sceptic shock with a 60% mortality rate”, indicated Dr. Marquina.

Chavez announced on national television late Saturday that he was flying to Cuba for new cancer surgery, and named Vice-President and Foreign Minister Nicolas Maduro as his possible successor.

Chavez, 58, who has ruled Venezuela for 14 years, underwent three operations for cancer and four courses of chemotherapy in Cuba and Venezuela within a year.

He said that recent tests had revealed malignant cells. Chavez, who was re-elected for another six-year presidential term in October, said the pain he felt were due to strain during the election campaign and radiation therapy treatment, adding that surgery was vital, and an illness like this always carried risk.

Meanwhile in Venezuela there are hopes Chavez can return for his third mandate January 10 taking office ceremony in Caracas and then return immediately to Cuba, which would ensure Nicolas Maduro as his successor and thus avoid calling new elections.

Venezuelans to vote in Chavez's toughest election yet

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez (C) holds Simon Bolivar's sword as he attends a press conference in Caracas, Venezuela, 06 October 2012

Venezuelans vote Sunday in the toughest election President Hugo Chavez has faced in almost 14 years in power after fresh-faced rival Henrique Capriles electrified the country's opposition.

Chavez, 58, retains a loyal following among the country's poor, who have propelled him to easy victories in past elections, but 40-year-old Capriles has narrowed the gap in opinion polls after an energetic door-to-door national campaign.

Weakened by a bout with cancer, the president stepped up his campaign this week, even dancing in the rain at a Caracas rally Thursday as he pleaded for another six-year term to seal his oil-funded socialist revolution.

Chavez, a fierce US critic, is a highly polarizing figure who survived a coup in 2002 and became popular with the long-neglected poor for using the country's vast oil wealth to fund health and education programs.

Mentored by Cuba's Fidel Castro, Chavez has become the leading voice of Latin America's left, railing against the US "empire" while befriending Iran and Syria. He also has used petro-dollars and cut-rate oil deals to build a network of diplomatic allies around the region.

Facing his biggest election challenge, Chavez has admitted making mistakes, vowing to "become a better president" if re-elected.

The business-friendly, center-left Capriles has hammered Chavez over the country's regular power outages, food shortages and runaway murder rate, which has risen to 50 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants.

The telegenic former Miranda state governor has vowed to unite the country, accusing Chavez of being "sick with power" and dividing the nation.

Capriles, who describes himself as David fighting Goliath, was picked by the opposition in an unprecedented primary election in February.

Chavez held a 10-point lead in the latest opinion poll, but Capriles has attracted huge crowds at rallies while other surveys have put them in a statistical dead heat.

Around 19 million voters are called to the polls. Some 140,000 troops have been deployed to prevent violence while alcohol sales are banned until Monday.

Election experts say the electronic voting system is fraud-proof, though Chavez charges that the "far right" plans to not recognize his victory if he wins.

While the opposition is better organized than in the past, Chavez counts on a well-oiled campaign operation, with supporters waking up voters with bugles.

Polls open at 6:00 am (1030 GMT) and close at 6:00 pm (2230 GMT), but people will be allowed to vote as long as there are lines.

Capriles pledges support for peace talks in Colombia and distance from Iran

Venezuelan opposition leader Henrique Capriles pledged to help Colombia in its peace talks with rebels and distance himself from Iran should he defeat President Hugo Chávez in an increasingly tight race ahead of Sunday's election.

The opposition candidate also wants to talk with Raul Castro over the presence of 40.000 Cuban workers in Venezuela

The government of neighbouring Colombia is due to start talks with FARC guerrillas this month in Oslo to try to end five decades of conflict. Chavez’s government, accused by Bogotá of backing the rebels in the past, supports the talks.

That has led to speculation that an opposition victory in Venezuela on Oct. 7 could damage prospects for peace in Colombia. But Capriles denied that was the case.

“A government led by us would accelerate the Colombia peace process. A progressive government in Venezuela will stop being a refuge for rebels, for armed groups,” he told a news conference in Caracas on Monday.

“We have a government that is an accomplice of the Colombian guerrillas. That will change.”

Capriles, who has mounted the strongest electoral challenge Chávez has faced during his 14 years in power, recently met Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos in Bogotá.

The opposition candidate also said that if he won he would demand the freedom of some 30 Venezuelans kidnapped in Colombia, and end any direct contacts with the rebels so as to not confuse the negotiations.

Among the half-a-dozen or so major local pollsters, most put Chávez ahead. But Capriles has been creeping up thanks to an energetic campaign, and two surveys give him a slight edge.

The 40-year-old governor, who would be Venezuela's youngest president, also said he would steer foreign relations away from Chávez's alliances with nations such as Iran and Belarus that the West views with suspicion.

“What do we have in common with Iran apart from producing oil? Or Belarus?” Capriles asked. ”Isn't its president a dictator? You tell me! We honoured (late Libyan leader Muammar) Gaddafi twice. Are those the relations Venezuelans want? No!“

Capriles said he would also try to sit down with Cuban President Raúl Castro to review the presence of more than 40,000 Cuban workers who are in Venezuela in exchange for oil supplies.

”And I've told the Russian ambassador here that we are going to stop buying weapons from Russia,” he added, referring to Chávez's multibillion-dollar arms purchases from Moscow.

President Franco claims Venezuela regime supports terrorist group in Paraguay

Paraguayan president Federico Franco accused the Venezuelan regime of Hugo Chavez of ‘direct and malicious’ involvement in his country’s affairs in support of a ‘terrorist and criminal’ gang, the Popular Army of Paraguay, EPP, which has committed kidnappings, assaults and killings.

Franco made the statements during an interview with journalist Patricia Janiot from CNN in Spanish. He added that he has documents and other evidence to support his accusation of Venezuela interference in support of EPP.

According to the Paraguayan president the Chavez regime organized and developed training programs for members of EPP that have been involved in kidnapping for ransom, killings of police forces, assaults, arson and other criminal actions in Paraguay.

Franco said that some EPP terrorist group members were invited to Venezuela with scholarships for alleged agriculture training programs but once there “were not precisely involved in learning to till the land but rather in the use of weapons and guerrilla tactics”.

“We have evidence and documents to support what I am saying now” added Franco.

Asked what his administration was doing to confront the EPP, Franco said that it is based on two stages: immediate action and the long term.

“The first is to establish industries and agricultural activities to the north of the country with an effective participation of the State, the other, long term to combat the subversives”.

The interview took place at the Time-Warner studios in New York.

President Franco also had a brief encounter with British PM David Cameron in the UN grounds out of the two leaders’ agenda.

The Paraguayan president also met with Bill Clinton at the Clinton Global Initiative foundation Monday night.