The "Arab Spring" has devolved into
the “Arab Fall” as the “successful” uprisings against dictators and
monarchs (Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, Libya) turned out to have superficial
impact on the corrupt and mismanaged societies that were seeking some
fundamental reform and improvement. Other candidates for Arab Spring
failed or never got going (Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Algeria,
Morocco, Lebanon). Syria is not over but the rebels are winning. In
Egypt, the disgruntled population is moving towards a revival of the
uprising because the new bosses are too similar to the old ones.
Libya was won by armed civilians assisted by NATO smart bombs and
warships. The Syrian rebels want this kind of help but the West is
reluctant to do this again. Arab gratitude is brittle and can quickly
turn to treachery or hate. The uprisings were mostly about corruption
and the resulting massive poverty. For that reason, the Saudi Arabian
monarchy was able to buy its way out of an uprising. Yemen mutated into
low level civil war that was soon over, while Syria grew slowly into a
countrywide guerilla war. Egypt and Tunisia were over quickly, but
subsequent elections put Islamic conservatives in power and left most of
the corruption alone. In Egypt the military was able to maintain its
corrupt grip on the economy. It's unclear how this will turn out because
the Islamic and secular rebel groups are spending most of their time
going after each other. Indeed, the biggest problem was that these
dictatorships were not just the single dictator but that segment of the
population that kept the dictator in power, were well rewarded for that
and were not eager to flee or give up their wealth. The dictator's
supporters are striving to retain or regain their power. The Old Order
has substantial economic and political resources and is willing to use
them to retain power and wealth.
Most current wars are basically uprisings against police states or
feudal societies, which are seen as out-of-step with the modern world.
Many are led by radicals preaching failed dogmas (Islamic conservatism,
Maoism, and other forms of radical socialism), that still resonate among
people who don't know about the dismal track records of these creeds.
Iran has replaced some of the lost Soviet terrorist support effort. That
keeps Hezbollah, Hamas (until recently), and a few smaller groups
going, and that's it. Terrorists in general miss the Soviets, who really
knew how to treat bad boys right.
The War on Terror has morphed into the War Against Islamic
Radicalism. This religious radicalism has always been around, for Islam
was born as an aggressive movement that used violence and terror to
expand. Past periods of conquest are regarded fondly by Moslems, who are
still taught by many of their religious leaders and teachers that
non-Moslems ("infidels") are inferior. The current enthusiasm for
violence in the name of God has been building through most of the 20th
century. Historically, Islamic radicalism has flared up into mass
bloodshed periodically, usually in response to corrupt governments, as a
vain attempt to impose a religious solution on some social or political
problem.
The current violence is international because of the
availability of planet wide mass media (which needs a constant supply of
headlines) and the fact that the Islamic world is awash in tyranny and
economic backwardness. This is why the Arab Spring uprisings, and their
desire to establish democracies, may do some permanent damage to the
Islamic terrorism tradition. There are already more condemnations of
Islamic radicals by Islamic clerics and media in Moslem nations. These
changes have not come as quickly as many hoped, but at least they
finally arrived. This came as a surprise to many Moslems. That’s because
the past has had a huge influence on Islamic societies. For many,
resistance to change is considered a religious obligation. Many Moslems
consider democracy a poisonous Western invention. There is still a lot
of affection for the clerical dictatorship of legend, a just and
efficient government run by virtuous religious leaders. The legends are
false and there are centuries of failed religious dictatorships to prove
it. But this legend has become a core belief for many Moslems and will
be shaken by reality or the historical record.
Islamic radicalism itself is incapable of mustering much military
power, and the movement largely relies on terrorism to gain attention.
Most of the victims are fellow Moslems, which is why the radicals
eventually become so unpopular among their own people that they run out
of popular support and fade away. This is what is happening now. The
American invasion of Iraq was a clever exploitation of this, forcing the
Islamic radicals to fight in Iraq, where they killed many Moslems,
especially women and children, thus causing the Islamic radicals to lose
their popularity among Moslems. The sharp decline in the Islamic nation
opinion polls was startling.
Normally, the West does not get involved in these Islamic religious
wars, unless attacked in a major way. Moreover, modern sensibilities
have made retaliation difficult. For example, fighting back is
considered, by Moslems, as culturally insensitive ("war on Islam"), and
some of the Western media have picked up on this bizarre interpretation
of reality. It gets worse. Historians point out, for example, that the
medieval Crusades were a series of wars fought in response to Islamic
violence against Christians, not the opening act of aggression against
Islam that continues to the present. Thus, the current war on terror is,
indeed, in the tradition of the Crusades. And there are many other
"Crusades" brewing around the world, in the many places where aggressive
Islamic militants are making unprovoked war on their Christian and
non-Moslem neighbors. Political Correctness among academics and
journalists causes pundits to try and turn this reality inside out. But a
close look at the violence in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East shows a
definite pattern of Islamic radicals persecuting those who do not agree
with them, not the other way around.
While Islamic terrorism grabs most of the headlines, it is not the
cause of many casualties, at least not compared to more traditional
wars. The vast majority of the military related violence and deaths in
the world comes from many little wars that get little media attention
outside their region. Actually some of them are not so little. While
causalities from international terrorism are relatively few, the dead
and wounded from all the other wars actually comprise about 95 percent
of all the casualties.
The Islamic terrorism looms larger because the
terrorists threaten attacks everywhere and at any time, putting a much
larger population in harm's way, and the more numerous potential victims
are unhappy with that prospect. In the West, and most Moslem nations,
Islamic terrorism remains more of a threat than reality. In fact,
casualties from terrorist attacks have been declining. Most of the
victims are in Iraq and Afghanistan, where they have been operating for
decades. Before 2003, many of the current Sunni terrorists were on
Saddam’s payroll, carrying out “legal” terrorism.
There are a lot of people dying from armed and organized (sort of)
violence word-wide. But most of this violence involved one, or both
sides, operating as armed civilians. One of the bloodiest of these
irregular conflicts is the one going on in Mexico, where drug gangs
battle over who shall control the lucrative drug smuggling routes into
the United States. Most of the killings are done by drug gang gunmen in
civilian clothes. The death toll is over 80,000 since 2007. That's right
up there with the wars that get a lot more media coverage (Afghanistan,
Pakistan, Syria, Sudan, Somalia). That's no accident, as the Mexican
drug war includes a lot of violence against the media, mainly local
print and electronic outlets. The drug gangs don't want any unfavorable
coverage and are willing to kill those who dare to say unkind things.
This is common in many of the wars where one, or both sides are
basically outlaws and able to do as they please.
Despite the growing military power of China, and the saber rattling
from Russia, the major military powers continue the Great Nuclear Truce
(GNT) that began in the 1950s, when Russia got nuclear weapons and
suddenly realized they could not afford to use them (without risking
more destruction than past foes like the Nazis or Mongols inflicted). As
more major powers got nukes, the "we can't afford to use them, but
they're nice to have" attitude, and the unprecedented truce, persisted.
There have been wars but not between the big players (who have the
largest and most destructive conventional forces). Thus a record was
broken in 1986, as there had never before (since the modern state system
developed in the 16th century) been so long a period without a war
between a major powers (the kind that could afford, these days, to get
nukes). Since the Cold War ended in 1991, there have been fewer wars (in
the traditional sense) and more low level conflicts (rebellions, civil
wars).
Most people are unaware of this situation because the mass media
never made a lot of the GNT, it was something that was just there and
not worth reporting. Besides, "nukes (bombs, power plants, medicine) are
evil" sells if you are in the news business. Calling any incident, with
a lot of gunfire and a few dead bodies, a "war" has also been
misleading. The fact is, worldwide violence has been declining since the
end of the Cold War and the elimination of Russian subsidies and
encouragement for pro-communist (or simply pro-Russia) rebels and
terrorists. The media also has a hard time keeping score. For years Iraq
was portrayed as a disaster until, suddenly, the enemy was crushed and
the war was won. Even that was not considered exciting enough to warrant
much attention, and that story is still poorly covered. Same pattern is
playing out in Afghanistan, where the defeats of the Taliban, and
triumph of the drug gangs, go unreported or distorted. However, if you
step back and take a look at all the wars going on, a more accurate
picture emerges.
Current wars are listed in alphabetical orders. Text underneath
briefly describes current status. Click on country name for more
details.
AFGHANISTAN
The government continues trying to negotiate a deal with
pro-Taliban Pushtun tribes and clans in the south. The Taliban
leadership (most of them live in the Pakistan sanctuary of Quetta)
oppose this sort of thing, as they have done for years. But more clans
and tribe leaders make deals and this further splinters the Taliban and
lessen the risk of another civil war between Pushtuns (and among Pushtun
factions) and the other ethnic groups (who are 60 percent of the
population but much less violent than the Pushtuns). Most NATO troops in
Afghanistan will be gone by 2014. The drug gangs and their Taliban
allies are depending on this departure for long-term survival. But that
could create a heroin producing, Islamic terrorist and gangster
sanctuary in Central Asia. If you want to know how that works out, look
at Chechnya in the late 1990s and Somalia during the last decade. No one
has come up with any cheap, fast, or easy solution for that. Meanwhile,
Afghanistan's core problem is that there is no Afghanistan, merely a
collection of tribes more concerned about tribal, than national,
prosperity and power. Ten percent of the population, mostly living in
the cities and often working with the foreigners, believes in
Afghanistan the country. But beyond the city limits, it's a very
different Afghanistan that is currently motivated by growing prosperity
brought on by a decade of relative peace. By Afghan standards, an
unprecedented amount of cash has come into the country since September
11, 2001. Between economic growth, the growing heroin sales, and foreign
aid, plus lower losses from violence, it's been something of a Golden
Age. But Afghanistan has a long history of civil war and endemic tribal
violence. For example, it's often forgotten that the 1990s civil war was
still active on September 11, 2001.
The Taliban (or, more accurately,
Pushtun nationalists from the southwest) have been trying to make a
comeback ever since. Meanwhile most Afghans are more interested in
grabbing a chunk of the new economic opportunities. Despite a decline in
civilian deaths (and the fact that most of them are caused by the
Taliban), the Afghan government plays up every civilian death caused by
foreign troops as a bargaining chip in the effort to cripple NATO
anti-corruption efforts. There hasn't been a real "Taliban Spring
Offensive" for the last seven years and that’s partly because of cash
flow problems.
The key Taliban financial resource, heroin in Helmand and
Kandahar provinces, has been under heavy attack for over four years
now. The poppy (the source of opium and heroin) crop has been hammered
by drought and disease, growing competition from Burmese heroin and drug
gang income has suffered. The Taliban expected drug gang profits, al
Qaeda assistance, and Pakistani reinforcements to help them out. But al
Qaeda is a very junior, and unpopular, partner, and the death of Osama
bin Laden in 2011 was a big blow to morale. Pakistani Taliban are mostly
sending refugees, not reinforcements. In the last half of 2011, the
Taliban were much reduced, and for the year their attacks were down and
casualties are up. Losses for foreign troops were also way down from the
peak year of 2010 (711 dead). Foreign troop deaths began to rapidly
decline in the second half of 2011, with casualties among Afghan police
and soldiers rising as Afghans took control of security in more of the
country. The higher foreign troop casualties in 2010 were because there
were more foreign troops in action during that year, and those troops
were much more aggressive.
The Taliban roadside bomb weapon has lost its
punch because of more MRAPs and specialized intel and engineer troops
moved in from Iraq. Thus the proportion of foreign troop deaths from
roadside bombs declined from a peak of 61 percent in 2009, to under 40
percent last year. This has not helped civilians, who suffer far more
deaths from Taliban action. In fact, independent minded tribes,
warlords, corruption and drug gangs remain a greater threat to peace,
prosperity, and true national unity than the Taliban (on both sides of
the Pakistan border). Newly wealthy civilians are buying rifles and
pistols for self-defense. Moreover, the "Taliban" are not an
organization but a Pushtun movement that is active on both sides of the
border and supported by less than ten percent of the 40 million Pushtun
in the region. Five years ago the Pakistani government finally agreed to
take on the pro-Taliban tribes and various Islamic terrorist
organizations. That has put pressure on Taliban on both sides of the
border. There are fewer safe havens for the Taliban. Violence inside
Afghanistan is growing, largely because of the drug gangs and their
support for tribes (especially pro-Taliban ones) that oppose the corrupt
(in part because of drug gang bribes) national government.
The foreign
nations, fighting their war on terror in Afghanistan, have finally
realized that there has never been an Afghan national government that
was not corrupt, and changing that is going to be more difficult than
fighting the Taliban. NATO is now fully aware of the trans-national
nature of the Pushtun tribes and the Taliban movement. The "war in
Afghanistan" is more of a "Pushtun Tribal Rebellion," and is being
handled as such. Most NATO nations with troops in Afghanistan are
willing to just walk away and deal with the fallout later. Afghanistan
has become politically unpopular and the easiest way out (for Western
politicians) is to get out and let their successors deal with the
fallout.
ALGERIA
The Arab Spring made only a slight impact here. Many locals are
still traumatized by the 1990s war against Islamic terrorists, which is
still not completely over. But the anger is growing because of decades
of inept dictatorship. There are few Islamic radicals left in Algeria.
Over the last decade most of them were killed, captured, or ran off to
Europe or south into the desert and across the southern borders into
Black Africa. Many of those showed up in Mali over the last year, where a
lot of them were killed by the French counter-offensive earlier this
year. That operation also did a lot of damage to the al Qaeda smuggling
gangs that have been moving South American cocaine north for several
years. The few remaining Islamic terrorists in Algeria have few hiding
places left. Despite the large amount of uninhabited mountains and
forests along the eastern coast, the police and army have been operating
there for so long that it's difficult to stay hidden. Too many
civilians are hostile to Islamic radicalism and will phone in a tip.
Algeria has become a very dangerous place for Islamic terrorists.
There
was a slight increase in terror attacks, as Islamic radicals tried to
capitalize on the Arab Spring unrest in neighboring Tunisia and Libya.
But in both those countries, the popular uprising was against the local
dictators and for democracy, not Islamic radicalism. Islamic political
parties were popular, but not Islamic radicals. The uprisings in Tunisia
and Libya weakened the local security forces, and made it easier for
Islamic radicals to move around and recruit. Algeria increased its
border security and has had to deal with more Islamic terrorist just
across the border in Tunisia and Libya. The major problem remains, an
Algerian government that is basically a corrupt military dictatorship
that uses the national oil wealth to buy enough votes to get elected
again and again. So more Algerians are fleeing, or vacillating between
despair and a desire to fight. The corrupt government insures that there
are always more desperate young men willing to give Islamic terrorism a
try, but not enough to overthrow the government or even keep Arab
Spring demonstrations going. Many expect another, and larger, Arab
Spring in Algeria eventually, but so far the geriatric government is
making concessions and trying to reform itself. This is delaying another
revolution.
BALKANS
Corruption, crime, and the pursuit of past glories continue to be
the main cause of violence here. An Islamic government in Turkey is
looking east and south, like the late Ottoman Turk Empire. But to the
east and south there is only trouble, while Turkey's growing economy
looks west, where the major trading partners are. Meanwhile, there is
growing popular unrest in Turkey over the Islamic government’s arrogant
and intolerant attitudes towards dissent and criticism. A major outbreak
of public protest has forced the government to reconsider its policies.
Greece's economic meltdown meant big cuts in the Greek military budget,
ending the decades-long arms race with Turkey. Cyprus also suffered an
economic meltdown, complicated by the fact that Cyprus had become an
offshore banking haven for Russian criminals and corrupt officials.
Russia continues to throw its weight around (or at least try to), if
only because Russia has spent centuries meddling in the Balkans and just
can’t stop. Despite that, the West Europeans got their way, and Kosovo
became independent. Serbia disagrees with that, and Big Brother Russia
offers all manner of support and threats. But no one is willing to
resume the war, yet. No one is willing to renounce war as an option,
either. Bosnia continues to attract Islamic terrorists, despite the
local government becoming increasingly hostile to these foreign
troublemakers and alien Islamic conservatism. Moldova continues to
muddle and Bulgaria and Romania continue to fight corruption and lose.
The EU is pulling its peacekeepers out of the Balkans, leaving the
gangsters, Islamic radicals, and corrupt officials more freedom of
action.
CENTRAL ASIA
The Arab Spring tried to spread to this area but didn't take hold.
Local dictators continue to brew rebellion by suppressing democrats,
Islamic radicals, and anyone else who objects to strongman rule. Not
much violence most of the time, just a lot of potential and a growing
number of local Islamic militants who seem determined to use violence to
change things. The dictators in the "Stans" (the former provinces of
the Soviet Union that became five independent nations, Uzbekistan,
Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan) have been
rebuilding the Soviet era secret police. The new dictators have noted
that the Soviets never had any problems with Islamic terrorism, or any
other kind of terrorism, and are going old school on this new problem.
Nevertheless, popular uprisings have succeeded here. The continuing
unrest in Kyrgyzstan demonstrates that there are limits to what a
dictatorship can do. That’s one reason Kyrgyzstan is seeking closer
economic and political ties with Russia, just in case the local
situation gets out of control. Russia stands ready to provide similar
help to the other Stans, which are all being pulled back into the
Russian economic and political orbit.
CHAD
Chad and Sudan halted their support for each other's rebels four
years ago and formally made peace. Now the biggest problem along the
border is the bandits, who prey on the refugees and the foreign aid
workers. The peacekeepers have left, and the foreign aid groups
threatened to follow if Chad security forces were unable, or unwilling,
to deal with the banditry in and around the refugee camps. Chadian
soldiers and police did keep the bandits in check, and the aid groups (a
major source of economic activity in eastern Chad) remained. This
success led Chad to send several thousand troops to Mali to assist the
French in clearing out an infestation of Islamic terrorists. This might
be considered payback for assistance France has given Chad in the past.
Meanwhile the unrest along the Sudan border is caused by refugees from
tribal battles in Sudan, who bring their feuds with them. Prospects for
peace are not good in Sudan, so the Sudanese refugees remain a problem.
Chad is now quieter but not peaceful. Same with its neighbor, the CAR
(Central African Republic), which suffers from the same plague of
multiculturalism induced rebellions. The civil war in CAR flared up in
the past year and escalated in 2013, to an overthrow of the CAR
government. That change of government has settled down things in CAR,
but the situation still remains volatile in Sudan. For both Chad and
CAR, corruption, poverty, disorder, and starvation are larger problems
than armed violence.
CHINA
China is edging towards war with its neighbors. North Korea is now
on this list because the North Koreans have openly defied China, which
is not happy with having an unstable nuclear power as a neighbor. North
Korea is getting threats, some of them public, from China. Meanwhile, in
the South China Sea China has embraced the idea that this entire area
is not international waters nor the property of the nearest country but
part of China. This violates international agreements on such matters,
but China disagrees and is becoming more aggressive in enforcing these
claims. China is using the “death by a thousand cuts” approach,
constantly pushing other nations away from disputed rocks and reefs and
threatening worse if anyone tries drilling for oil or gas in these
offshore waters.
China is applying the same tactics on India along their
4,000 kilometer land border. Meanwhile, there are growing problems at
home, where growing success in using the Internet for espionage did not
translate in the ability to establish a lot of control over Internet use
within China. The government has been unable to create a new domestic
information monopoly (as existed in the pre-cell phone/Internet days).
Bad news gets out and causes growing unrest or corruption and abusive
government. There are thousands of large protest riots each year, and
some towns are openly rebelling. It's all because of an un-elected
government run by communists who no longer believe in communism. The
growing corruption taints everything. For example, military reforms are
crippled by corruption and energetic government efforts to clean it up
constantly fail. In late 2012, the government launched another major
anti-corruption drive but, as in the past, most of those prosecuted are
low level operators while the biggest (and most senior) offenders
continue doing the most damage with the least risk. China continues its
long-range plan to be a military superpower. World class weapons are
planned for the future, some 10-20 years from now, but every year China
offers more advanced weapons to the world market. Chinese military
technology is suspect, as much of it is based on Russian stuff, and
during the Cold War Russian weapons always seemed to be what the losers
used. A lot of this new tech is aimed at India. The rivalry between
China and India becomes more obvious and dangerous. China is mainly
concerned about its trade routes through the Indian Ocean. The
confrontation with Taiwan continues to subside, replaced by kind words
and gracious lies, along with increases in trade and commerce. Taiwan
buys more arms and China speeds up modernization of its armed forces,
with an emphasis on protecting its sea trade routes and overseas
economic interests. Thus the world is seeing more Chinese in
peacekeeping missions as well as growing Chinese threats to peace.
COLOMBIA
Peace talks with the major leftist rebel group FARC are proceeding
slowly. After nearly half a century of violence, leftist rebels are
rapidly losing support, recruits, and territory. The drug gangs and
leftist rebels have merged in many parts of the country, and the war is
increasingly about money, not ideology. The leftist rebels are
definitely fading but all that drug money can keep them in the game for
quite a while. Many of the leftists are disillusioned and it is becoming
harder to recruit new gunmen. In Venezuela the country moves closer to
civil war. Radical populist president Hugo Chavez died in March, after
he had trashed the Venezuelan economy and democracy. His handpicked
replacement had to rig the election to become the new president. That
just caused more popular discontent in Venezuela, which is threatening
to turn that country into another 20th century Colombia. The old Chavez
dream of Venezuela becoming a socialist dictatorship supported by oil
revenue is rapidly fading, along with cash reserves and the national
credit rating. While Venezuela is headed for civil war Colombia
continues to prosper and reduce drug gang and leftist rebel violence.
CONGO
The UN, having tried everything else, finally authorized a special
brigade of peacekeepers who have a license to kill and kill as often as
needed to eliminate the last few rogue militias operating in the east.
This may solve the peacekeeping problems out there but not the fact that
Congo has returned to being a one party dictatorship based on
corruption and exploiting ethnic divisions. Multiple tribal and
political militias, plus an increasing number of bandits, continue to
roam the eastern border area, perpetuating the bloodiest (and least
reported) war of the last decade (several million dead, depending on who
is counting). There are fewer places where the bad guys can roam
freely. Attempts to absorb rebels into the army have not worked well.
The last major problem is a Tutsi militia, which will not disarm until
the government destroys Hutu militias, organized by Hutu mass murderers
who fled neighboring Rwanda in the 1990s. The Congolese government finds
it cannot (and to a certain extent, will not) cope with this. The
reason is money, the millions of dollars available each year to whoever
has gunmen controlling the mines that extract valuable ores and allow
the stuff out of the country. UN peacekeepers are criticized for not
fighting more, but that’s not their job. The Congolese army is not up to
it yet either, and late last year one of the more troublesome militias
(a Rwanda supported Tutsi outfit) rebelled and rolled over army and
peacekeeper troops. The rebels did not seek to overthrow the national
government but remain in control of much of the eastern border area.
This is where the new UN combat brigade is operating. Meanwhile, the
inept and corrupt government creates more anger than contentment,
setting the stage for another civil war. The population is not eager for
more violence, not after two decades of mayhem.
ETHIOPIA
Peacekeeping has proved to be a useful endeavor for Ethiopia. A few
thousand troops helped crush the al Shabaab Islamic militia in Somalia.
Ethiopia is accustomed to dealing with the Somalis, something the rest
of the world should study more closely. Internally, rebellious Moslem
groups are a constant threat, especially with more active support from
Eritrea. Another force of peacekeepers helped keep the peace in South
Sudan, which was rewarded with a transit deal for Ethiopian oil and
other goods. Egypt made some nasty, but toothless, threats over Nile
River water (and Ethiopian hydroelectric dams). The border dispute with
Eritrea festers, and rebellion by ethnic Somalis in Ogaden province
persists. There's oil in Ogaden and that has caused the Ethiopians to be
brutal to the rebels.
INDIA-PAKISTAN
This year, for the first time in Pakistani history, an elected
civilian government succeeded an earlier elected civilian government.
Before that there was always a military dictatorship in between. But now
the military has lost a lot of prestige and popular support. This trend
began in May 2nd, 2011, when a U.S. raid into Pakistan killed Osama bin
Laden. That caused an unexpected popular backlash against the Pakistani
military. Not just for sheltering bin Laden (which the generals always
denied) but for being unable to spot the "invading Americans", or stop
local Islamic radicals from carrying out "revenge attacks" that left
hundreds dead. This led to a continuing series of confrontation between
the Pakistani military and the civilian government and growing hostility
towards military economic and political power. The generals had created
a confrontation with the United States as a way to get their own
civilian leaders to back off on plans to trim the independence (and
wealth) the Pakistani military has long enjoyed. This did not work, nor
did an effort to increase hostility with India. This is the result of
growing Indian anger at Pakistani support of Islamic terrorism and
realization that China is the main enemy now, with Pakistan fading fast.
After the Mumbai terrorist attacks in late 2008, India pressured
Pakistan to quit playing media games and get serious about anti-Indian
Islamic terrorists (created and sustained by the Pakistani military)
based in Pakistan. This caused a struggle within the Pakistani
government, over how to deal with Islamic radicalism and their own armed
forces. Pakistan quietly backed off on any efforts to suppress its
anti-India Islamic terror groups (who are popular with nationalistic
Pakistanis). Meanwhile, India has to deal with religious (Islamic)
separatists in Kashmir, plus tribal rebels in the northeast, and Maoist
(communist) ones in between. In 2010, India launched a large offensive
against the Maoists, a war they expect to take several years to finish
and, not surprisingly, is proceeding slowly. Pakistan has Islamic
radicals in the north and rebellious Pushtun and Baluchi tribes along
the Afghan border. The Taliban had become stronger in Pakistan, where it
originated, than in Afghanistan. The elected (2008) Pakistani
government tried to make peace with the Taliban and when that failed,
invaded the Taliban heartland. The previous military government had
always avoided open war with the Islamic radicals. But this time the
Taliban were beat up pretty bad, and the number of Taliban sponsored
terrorist attacks increased in response. The military refused to clear
the Islamic radicals out of their two last refuges in North Waziristan
and Quetta (Baluchistan). Meanwhile the economy is a mess and the
favorite national pastime is blaming foreigners for all these problems.
By way of comparison, Moslem Bangladesh, which broke away from being
part of Pakistan in the early 1970s, has no such Islamic radical problem
(leftist rebels are the major troublemakers). India and Pakistan both
have nukes, making escalation a potential catastrophe. As a result,
recent peace talks have lowered the possibility of war, but both sides
continue an arms race. Pakistan has always been a mess and does not
appear to be getting better. For a while there was an effort to be less
hospitable to Islamic radicals. But those Islamic terrorists who
concentrated on attacking India were too popular to suppress. The
military saw their control of these terrorists as a potential tool to
keep the civilian government in line. It was a military government that,
in the 1970s, introduced Islamic radicalism as a political tool for
controlling the country and for making war against India. Many of the
Islamic terrorists eventually turned on the military and were a
dangerous failure as a tool for foreign policy. The military continues
to support Islamic terrorists, especially those going after India, by
providing secure bases in Pakistan and active support in getting into
India. There are still many Pakistanis, including government officials,
who back Islamic radicalism, but continued attacks on Pakistani
civilians have made it more popular to criticize Islamic radicals for
the many problems they cause. Pakistan still has a way to go in dealing
with that demon.
The U.S. has threatened to invade if Pakistan based
Islamic terrorists launch a successful terror attack in the United
States. Evidence is piling up that Pakistani based groups have
supported, and still support, efforts to carry out attacks in the U.S.
America has told Pakistan that this would have consequences, but the
Pakistanis fear a larger civil war of their own if they go after the
radicals, mainly because about a third of Pakistanis still back Islamic
radicalism. The moderates are a majority, but the minority is more
willing to die for their beliefs. That, however, is beginning to slowly
change, aided by recent Taliban attacks on women doing “un-Islamic”
things (like backing education for girls or vaccinating children against
polio). There are also a lot of Pakistanis who are more comfortable
with the “there is a Western conspiracy to destroy Islam and we must
fight it” view of the world. Pakistan needs help, but mostly from
Pakistanis, as the ills that torment Pakistan can only be resolved from
within.
INDONESIA
Mostly at peace but separatism, pirates, Islamic terrorists, and
government corruption create a volatile situation that could get hot
real fast. Islamic terrorists have been greatly diminished, as Islamic
moderates flex their traditional popularity. But Islamic radicals are
allowed to continue harassing non-Moslems and Moslems who are not Moslem
enough. This is causing growing friction. Aceh still has a few diehard
separatist rebels. There is growing separatist unrest in Papua. Newly
independent East Timor has taken the leap and replaced peacekeepers with
local police but is still stuck in a cycle of perpetual poverty.
IRAN
Last year brought many new economic sanctions that cut oil income
sharply and resulted in more inflation and unemployment. The government
says it will take care of all this, in time. Meanwhile the radical,
Israel hating, and anti-corruption president Ahmadinejad openly took on
the senior clerics (who hold the ultimate power) and failed. The recent
presidential elections saw him replaced by one of the eight candidates
the senior clerics allowed to run for election. None of them was
anything like Ahmadinejad, who was popular because of his
anti-corruption efforts. This was a major problem because the major
crooks are senior clerics or their kin. The clerics fought back and
Ahmadinejad had no chance of reelection. Meanwhile, popular unrest has
been greatly reduced by intense government suppression. The basic
problem, for all the things that bother Iranians, is that an Islamic
conservative minority has veto power over any attempts at reform from
within. Any other reformers are considered enemies of the state. Most
Iranians just want a better life. The supply of peaceful solutions is
drying up. After that comes another revolution. There are some more
complications. Half the population consists of ethnic minorities (mainly
Turks and Arabs), and some of these groups (Arabs, Kurds, and Baluchis)
are getting more restive and violent (for different reasons).
Meanwhile, the Islamic conservatives are determined to support terrorism
overseas and build nuclear weapons at home, rather than concentrating
on improving the economy and living standards. All this is made more
complicated by a year of more damaging economic sanctions which have cut
oil income in half. The economy is a mess, Syria and Lebanon are in
danger of being lost as allies, and unrest and terrorist violence are
becoming more common in Iran. The government still seeks foreign
adventures to distract an unhappy population but too many Iranians see
through that and it just increases the popular anger with the
government. The inept management of the economy is creating more
unemployed young men desperate for a solution. The religious
dictatorship is backed by religious fanatics that are willing to kill to
stay in power, and guys like this are very difficult to remove. These
are also the kind of men who would follow orders and take on the world
(over access to the Persian Gulf). The nuclear weapon program moves
forward and is very popular with nearly all Iranians (who feel they are a
great and powerful people who need nukes to prove it once more).
IRAQ
All American troops are gone for over a year and Islamic terrorists
are now a local police problem. Terrorist violence continues because of
diehard Sunni Arabs who refuse to accept Shia domination and growing
support from Sunni Arabs elsewhere in the region who fear growing
Iranian efforts to spread Shia Islam via Iraq. More areas of the country
are now at peace (as some have been since 2003) but the 2007 Sunni Arab
peace deals with the majority Kurds and Shia Arabs are unraveling.
Some
Sunni Arabs, who had fled the country, are returning but nearly half
the Sunni Arabs are still gone (either outside the country or hiding
inside Iraq). The uprising in Syria is led by the Sunni Arab majority
there (against the ruling Shia Arab minority). Iraqi Sunni Arabs are
enthusiastically aiding the Syrian rebels and the Iraqi government is
officially neutral (but actually doing much of what Iran asks to support
the Syrian government). The Iraqi Shia militias, who were earlier
defeated by Iraqi police and troops seven years ago are now being
allowed to help suppress the Sunni Arab terrorists. This is what the
Sunni Arabs fear most, because the Shia militias use death squads to
murder Sunni Arabs, often indiscriminately. Corruption and inept
government are major problems with potential Iranian meddling (or even
invasion) a permanent threat. For example, the Iranians have had their
way and Iraq has quietly allowed Iran to ship weapons via Iraq to Syria.
Yet the government backed off on attempts to discourage Iraqi Sunni
Arabs from supporting their Sunni brethren in Syria. There are growing
tensions between the Kurds in the north (over northern oil fields) and
the Arab majority. That could trigger a civil war. Because the Kurds are
better prepared for war, and the oil money is very important to
preserving their autonomy, the Kurds might win. Plus, the Kurds don't
trust the Arabs. To make matters worse for the Iraqi government, Turkey
backs the Kurds.
ISRAEL
Hamas is under intense pressure to halt rocket attacks from Gaza.
That’s because they signed a truce with Israel over this matter and
Hamas must get smaller Islamic terror groups in Gaza to go along,
otherwise Israel will resume air, and possibly ground, attacks aimed at
destroying most of the Hamas rocket stockpile. Hamas remains dedicated
to destroying Israel and that rocket stockpile (built by smuggling
Iranian rockets in for years) is the only thing that gives Hamas any
credibility as a threat to Israel. Hamas needs all the respect it can
get in the Arab world because it is losing popular support in Gaza
(where its 1.6 million Palestinian subjects are angry at not being able
to vote Hamas out of power and being forced to submit to more and more
Islamic lifestyle rules). Fatah still rules in the West Bank and is
still corrupt, inept, and unpopular. Neither Palestinian faction is
interested in real peace talks with Israel. That's because Palestinian
leaders continue to preach endless war against Israel and the
destruction of the Jewish state. Any peace deal is seen as a stepping
stone towards that ultimate goal. Some Palestinians keep trying to make
any kind of peace, in order to reverse the economic disaster they
brought on themselves as a result of their 14 year old terror campaign
against Israel. Polls show that Palestinians are tired of terrorism,
even though they still support it (in order to destroy Israel, which
remains an article of faith in the Palestinian community).
The
Palestinian economy in Gaza has collapsed, as a major component, foreign
charity, was reduced because the people elected the Hamas (Islamic
terrorists) party to power in 2007. Hamas is trying to convince
foreigners that it has changed (it hasn't) in order to get more cash to
keep their religious dictatorship going. Iran recently cut aid (over a
million dollars a month) because Hamas came out against the Shia Assad
government of Syria (under attack by rebels from the Sunni Arab
majority). Palestinians are mainly Sunni and not known for religious
fervor, so Hamas felt it had to renounce support for the Iran-backed
government of Syria in order to placate its Gaza subjects. The
antagonism between radical Hamas and corrupt Palestinian old guard
(Fatah) has split Palestinians. But that’s not the biggest problem. Long
time Arab allies are giving up on the Palestinians, who seem to have
abandoned any meaningful attempt to unite and make some kind of peace
with Israel. Iran backed Islamic radicals (Hezbollah) and Hamas are
still allies, and most Lebanese back the destruction of Israel.
Hezbollah violence threatens to drag Lebanon into another civil war or
another war with Israel. Hezbollah followed Iranian orders and sent
several thousand fighters into Syria. The Arab Spring in Syria has
removed Syria as a threat to Israel for the moment and made Hezbollah
vulnerable. Egypt has adopted a new constitution which threatens to turn
into a religious dictatorship. Many Egyptians oppose that and are
increasingly violent about it. Meanwhile, the Israeli economy booms,
partly because of a very effective counter-terrorism campaign. This
annoys Arabs most of all and a growing number of Arab countries are
increasing their unofficial ties with Israel. Much of this has to do
with cooperating against mutual enemy Iran, but it’s also a growing
consensus that Israel is not going away and much effort is being wasted
in trying to make that happen.
KOREA
China has finally turned on its wayward client North Korea. China
does not want an irrational nuclear power on its border and is cutting
off various forms of aid in an effort to get North Korea to reform its
economy and get rid of its nukes. China is also furious about public
defiance from North Korea and is also going public with its criticism
and threats. The death of Kim Jong Il in 2011 made Chinese style
economic reforms more acceptable, but not in a big way. Continued famine
in the north prompted China to send more and more troops to the border
to keep hungry North Koreans out. China also pressured the north to
implement Chinese style economic reforms. The North Korean government
has been split into reform and conservative factions, making change
difficult to achieve. China has made it clear that North Korea is a
Chinese responsibility and if the North Korean government collapses
China, not South Korea, will pick up the pieces. South Korea does not
agree with that, and this could be a big problem in the future.
The
death of northern ruler Kim Jong Il changed nothing, yet. Growing
unrest, corruption, and privation continue to weaken the iron control
that has long kept the north peaceful and the Kim family in control.
North Korea continues to destroy its economy, in order to maintain armed
forces capable of invading South Korea and maintaining its own
population in bondage. North Korean military power declines, as lack of
money for maintenance or training causes growing rot. Torpedoing of a
South Korean warship and firing artillery at a South Korea island in
2010 are seen as a signs of factions maneuvering for control, as once
Kim died, several key people associated with those attacks disappeared
from power. There have since been a lot more changes in the military
high command. South Koreans are growing tired of the madness that still
reigns in the north and have, for the first time in over half a century,
promised retaliation if the north fires again. This could lead to war,
especially since North Korea sees this threat as, well, a threat.
Meanwhile, it's become clear that political collapse in the north is now
a matter of when, not if. Growing popular unrest in the north is more
evident with each passing month. North Korean leader Kim Jong Il
selected his youngest son, Kim Jong Un, to succeed him. Some factions
were not enthusiastic about this but China endorsed the heir, and that
seems to have been decisive and the reason why Kim Jong Un is getting
away with removing so many dissident leaders from power. It’s unclear if
Kim Jong Un is willing or able to trade the nukes for a better economic
and political future.
KURDISH WAR
Earlier this year the Turks and Kurdish rebels worked out another
peace deal. It’s unclear if this one will work, but so far there is no
major opposition. That could change, and it will take up to a year to
see if this peace deal is the real deal. Last year Iraqi Kurds agreed to
crack down on the PKK separatists, the Turks have been fighting for
over a decade. But the crackdown never did as much damage as the Turks
want. The PKK has a lot of quiet support among Kurds. As a result, Kurds
continued their 5,000 year long struggle to form their own country.
Iran has also cracked down on its Kurds, in cooperation with Turkey.
There are different Kurdish rebel organizations in Turkey (PKK), Iran
(PJAK), and Syria (PYD), and PKK is not the absolute leader in the field
of Kurdish separatism. Meanwhile, Iraqi Kurds believe they will get
control of some Iraqi oil fields, providing cash for all manner of
opportunities. But that is opposed by Iraqi Arabs and other minorities,
although it is now encouraged by Turkey. Turkish success in dealing with
the autonomous Kurds of northern Iraq helped build support in Turkey
for Turkish Kurds to have autonomy and freedom to be Kurds (and not
"mountain Turks"). Iraqi Kurds have Turkey guaranteeing their autonomy
in Iraq (and ability to control local oil fields) in return for keeping a
lid on the PKK and helping broker a wider peace deal. That works for
the Turks but has the Arab dominated government in Iraq threatening yet
another war with its own Kurds. That has already happened in neighboring
Syria, where the Kurdish minority have chased government soldiers and
Sunni Arab rebels out of their territory and are threatening to secede
(and probably merge with the northern Iraq Kurds) if not given more
autonomy in the post Assad government.
MALI
France took swift action in January and led an operation to clear
Islamic terrorists out of northern Mali. Aided by Chad and a growing
number of other African peacekeeping contingents, this operation is
expected to continue for years. It all began early in 2012, when Tuareg
tribal rebels (with the help of al Qaeda affiliated Islamic terrorists)
in northern Mali chased out government forces and declared a separate
Tuareg state. The army mutinied down south but backed off when
neighboring nations threatened to intervene. The thinly populated
northern two-thirds of the country has a population of less than two
million, out of 15 million for all of Mali. The north was very poor in
the best of times and over a year of violence there has halted tourism
(a major source of income, especially in the three major cities) and the
movement of many goods. Al Qaeda, better financed and more fanatic,
soon took over from the tribal rebels. The Tuareg rebels had objected to
the imposition of Islamic law, but the Islamic radical gunmen drove the
Tuareg fighters out of the cities and large towns. There were only
about 2,000 Islamic terrorists up north, which was, a year ago, declared
a sanctuary and base for Islamic radicals. The few thousand Tuareg
rebels began negotiating with the Mali government about cooperation. The
UN approved an invasion of the north by a force of about 7,000 troops,
with half from Mali and half from neighboring countries. France agreed
to lead a NATO effort to train, equip, supply, and support the invaders.
The invasion was supposed to take place in late 2013, but France
concluded that even this might be too ambitious for an African force and
decided to act largely alone in January. This was triggered in part by
al Qaeda efforts to invade southern Mali while setting up training camps
in the north. The bold French move paid off, although Mali still has
internal problems (corruption and an independent minded military) and an
unhappy Tuareg majority in the north.
MEXICO
Violence with drug cartels refuses to be put down. A newly elected
PRI (the party that controlled the government for most of the 20th
century until finally eased out by reformers in 2000) president promised
changes but has found that determination is more needed than change.
Nearly all the cartel violence (which accounts for three percent of all
crime) occurs in 3.2 percent of the 2,500 municipalities. But the often
spectacular Cartel War violence gets the headlines, making it appear
that the entire country is aflame. Because so much of the violence is on
the U.S. border, it seems, to Americans, that Mexico is a war zone. The
passing of one-party rule, the growth of drug gangs, and increasing
corruption in the security forces has triggered unprecedented levels of
violence and unrest in the areas involved. The government has gone to
war with the drug gangs, and the outcome is still in doubt. Presidential
elections returned PRI to power last year, and now there is fear that
the decades old PRI deal with the drug gangs (keep quiet and the police
won't bother you) will be quietly reinstated.
MYANMAR (Burma)
The new government is actually trying to not be a tool of the
former military junta. Reforms are slowly being made. Elections in
November, 2010 replaced the military dictatorship with many of the same
people, out of uniform and trying to hide the fact that they rigged the
vote. The rural tribes in the north revolted (again) but most were
persuaded to make peace deals in the past year. Decades of low level
fighting against ethnic separatists in the north has resulted, during
the last decade, in major victories for the government. There is not a
lot of fighting but major movements by Burmese troops into separatist
areas that were long outside the control of the government. Temporary
peace deals were made but the tribal rebels are producing major
quantities of methamphetamine, and increasing amounts of heroin, to
support continued fighting. China is not happy with many of these drugs
(particularly heroin and meth) coming into China. That is difficult to
change because the tribes are poor and the drug money is very
attractive. China is also concerned with the popular opposition to major
Chinese economic projects (dams and pipeline) in the north but the
fundamentals remain the same. Tribal separatists continue to flee into
Thailand. The half century old military elite remains entrenched in
power, even as it makes moves to change its status as an international
pariah. Economic and political progress is slow.
NIGERIA
A group of Taliban wannabes (Boko Haram) in the north were
subjected to a major counteroffensive in the last two months. Suddenly
the Boko Haram were on the defensive. Having been chased out of its
urban and suburban bases in the three northeast states they were most
active in, several hundred surviving Boko Haram members have set up
operations in the mountain forests along the Cameroon border. The
terrorists got in touch with Boko Haram groups known to exist across the
border in Cameroon. The army is now visiting the area and seeking the
new Boko Haram camps. There are still some armed Boko Haram members in
the cities, especially Maiduguri. There they are sheltered by civilians
and are difficult to root out. By itself Boko Haram is too small to have
much impact on a national scale. But the attacks against Christians in
the north have triggered revenge attacks against Moslems in the north
and, more ominously, in the south. Efforts to suppress Boko Haram made
some progress, but the Islamic radical group was still operating and
this prompted the major operation in the northeast. Meanwhile, too many
tribes, not enough oil money, and too much corruption create growing
unrest. The government continues to placate the ethnic oil gangs and
rebels in the oil producing region (the Niger River Delta) with a 2009
amnesty deal. That worked because, while the gangs were getting
organized, and a lot more violent, the government was moving more police
and military forces into the region. Most gang members accepted the
amnesty, rather than take on the armed forces. The amnesty deal did not
hold, and there are still attacks on oil facilities. It was later
discovered that local politicians and business leaders had taken over
the oil theft business from the disarmed tribal rebels, and the thefts
are larger than ever. Meanwhile, the northern Moslems want more control
over the federal government (and the oil money). The situation is still
capable of sliding into regional civil wars, over money and political
power. Corruption and ethnic/tribal/religious rivalries threaten to
trigger, at worse, another civil war and, at least, more street violence
and public anger.
POTENTIAL HOT SPOTS
Various places where the local situation is warming up and might
turn into a war. The most recent one has been in CAR (Central African
Republic) where rebels united, after years of struggling independently
and managed to overthrow the corrupt government.
PHILIPPINES
The Islamic minority in the south agreed to a peace deal that gave
it more autonomy but not its own country and the expulsion of
non-Moslems. The government convinced the separatists to settle for
less. Working out the details is taking longer than the Islamic rebels
expected but everyone is still talking. Communist rebels fight on for
social justice and a dictatorship, but the government believes the
leftists are on the way out. The communists are taking a beating and
agreed to negotiate a peace deal. The Moslems have, as always, lots of
clan feuds and internal violence, which will survive the autonomy deal
with the government. One of these feuds spilled over into neighboring
Malaysia, where local security forces had to deal with several hundred
invading Filipino clan gunmen. Meanwhile, most Filipinos are more
concerned with endemic corruption and the resulting economic stagnation.
There is also the Chinese threat, with more Chinese warships showing up
in what had been, until recently, unquestionably Filipino coastal
waters.
RUSSIA
Rebuilding and reforming the decrepit Soviet era armed forces
continues. It has not been easy because the Soviet Union left a lot of
bad habits behind. The defense industries still suffer from second-rate
technology and management. The military is also torn by infighting among
traditionalists and reformers. This rebuilding must succeed because the
Cold War era weapons are wearing out fast. It's either new stuff or
being stuck with nothing that works anymore. The major problem the
reformers are facing is corruption and resistance to change. The war
against gangsters and Islamic radicals in the Caucasus (Chechnya and its
neighbors) has been sort of won, but the Islamic radicals continue to
operate in the Caucasus, preventing the government from proclaiming
peace. Corruption keeps rebellion alive down there. Russia has returned
to police state ways and the traditional threatening attitude towards
neighbors. Rather than being run by corrupt communist bureaucrats, the
country is now dominated by corrupt businessmen, gangsters, and
self-serving government officials. The semi-free economy is more
productive than the centrally controlled communist one but that just
provides more money to steal. A rebellion against the new dictatorship
is brewing, showing enough democratic impulses remain to shape
government and push reform. But for now, most Russians want economic and
personal security and are willing to tolerate a police state to get it.
RWANDA & BURUNDI
Wars between better organized and more aggressive Tutsis and more
numerous Hutu tribes have died down in both countries. It's been going
on for centuries, but the latest installment has finally, mostly, ended,
with the last Hutu group in Burundi giving up, then changing its
mind,but not making nearly as much trouble as in the past. Rwanda was
blamed for continuing violence in eastern Congo, as they attempt to
destroy Hutu terrorists based there. As long as there are armed Hutus
fighting, the 1990s wars will never be over.
SOMALIA
Al Shabaab, an Islamic radical group, has been crushed but not
completely destroyed. Al Shabaab has been driven out of most of the
territory it controlled for years. The economy is reviving but it is
still a dangerous place to be. Kenyan troops invaded from the south in
2011, and Ethiopian troops from the west. Al Shabaab has fragmented into
factions and most of the international (pro-al Qaeda) members are dead
or fled. The imposition of oppressive Taliban-like lifestyle rules
created local armed opposition that contributed to the collapse of
Islamic radical control. Between that and the peacekeepers and Western
trained troops of the transitional government, the Islamic radicals were
doomed. But al Shabaab is not gone and remnants will linger for a
while. The new Somali government, propped up by foreign aid (most of
which is stolen) was forced to elect a permanent government last year.
Somalia is still a failed state that defies every attempt at nation
building. But the situation is worse than it appears. Somalia was never a
country, but a collection of clans and tribes that fight each other
constantly over economic issues (land and water). The country remains an
economic and political mess, a black hole on the map. Not much hope in
sight, until the pirates (which have been around for a decade) became a
major problem. The major trading nations launched a counter-piracy
effort which, in the last year, reduced pirate success (captured ships)
considerably. In fact, no large ships have been captured in over a year.
The northern statelet of Puntland was persuaded (and subsidized) by
wealthy seafaring nations to attack the pirate bases. There are not many
pirate groups left, because of the lack of multi-million dollar
ransoms. The far south (where the second major port, Kismayo is), a
third statelet (after Puntland and Somaliland in the north), is trying
to form as Jubaland. The UN backed government in the center is trying to
prevent this, but the problem remains the independent minded clans.
There is not a lot of enthusiasm among local leaders for a national
government.
SUDAN
An unofficial state of war developed after the south became an
independent "South Sudan" in 2011. The northern government agreed to the
vote and the split but did not really back the idea and sent troops and
pro-government militias to seize disputed border areas. The border
fighting continues. Moslems in the north tried, for decades, to suppress
separatist tendencies among Christians in the south, and Moslem rebels
in the east (on the coast) and west (non-Arab Darfur). All this was
complicated by the development of oil fields in the south and Moslem
government attempts to drive Christians from those oil regions. The
central government tried to halt, or rig, the independence vote in the
south. Meanwhile, battles over land in the west continue to pit Arab
herders against black Sudanese farmers. Both sides are Moslem but the
government has long backed the Arabs. The government uses Arab
nationalism and economic ties with Russia and China to defy the world
and get away with driving non-Arab tribes from Darfur. Sudan is also an
ally of Iran and recipient of weapons and advice on how to best
terrorize a population into submission. The government believes time is
on its side and that the West will never try anything bold and effective
to halt the violence. So far, the government has been proven right but
keeps losing control of Sudan, bit by bit.
SYRIA
Going into its third year, this has become a proxy war between Iran
and the Sunni states (and their Western allies). The pro-Iran Syrian
government has the backing of Russia, China, North Korea, Cuba, and the
other usual suspects. The West does not want the expense and bother of
doing another Libya (air support and special operations troops on the
ground) but that is where this is headed. Syria was one of the many Arab
Spring uprisings but one that did not end quickly (as in Tunisia and
Egypt), evolve into a brief civil war (as in Libya and Yemen), or get
suppressed (Saudi Arabia and Bahrain). The Syrian protests just
continued and turned into armed rebellion in late 2011. Syria is, like
Iraq under Saddam, a Baath Party dictatorship. But there are two
differences. Unlike Iraq, where a Sunni minority dominated a Shia
majority, it's just the opposite in Syria. More importantly, Syria has
little oil wealth and the government depends on subsidies from Shia Iran
to survive. Despite growing international criticism (even from the Arab
League) the government refused to stop using violence and other police
state tactics to suppress the pro-democracy demonstrations. In over two
years of growing violence, nearly 100,000 people have died. The outcome
is no longer in doubt. The growing strength of the armed rebels has
doomed the stubborn dictatorship, despite reinforcements from Iran
(mainly in the form of several thousand Hezbollah gunmen from Lebanon).
THAILAND
Malay Moslems in the south (three percent of the population)
continue to cause problems. In the last year the government was able to
find someone down there to negotiate with and these talks are making
progress. Most Thais are ethnic Thais and Buddhist while the southerners
are Moslem and ethnic Malays. In the south Islamic radicalism arrived a
decade ago along with an armed effort to create a separate Islamic
state in the three southern provinces. Islamic terrorists grew more
powerful month by month for several years and refused to negotiate.
Security forces persisted and are making progress in identifying and
rounding up the terrorists. But there is no quick victory in sight. Up
north, a civil war over military control of the government has been
avoided, for the moment, as has war with Cambodia over border disputes.
Burma is causing more problems with its growing illegal production of
drugs (heroin, meth, and ecstasy).
UGANDA
Religion and tribalism created unrest (the LRA or Lord's Resistance
Army) in the north that just will not go away. LRA was driven out of
Uganda over six years ago but has since been marauding its way through
neighboring states. A final peace deal with LRA rebels proved impossible
to negotiate because no amnesty was possible. Meanwhile, Ugandan
peacekeepers in Somalia briefly brought Somali Islamic terrorists to
Uganda. This turned out to be more threat than reality and the biggest
problems in Uganda remain corruption and tribal feuds. Uganda is still
relatively stable (for the region and Africa) and has become a major
source of peacekeepers for less stable states in the area.
WAR ON TERROR
September 11, 2001, and the aftermath forced the Moslem world to
confront their self-inflicted problems. Al Qaeda is as self-destructive
as its many predecessors. Al Qaeda suicide bomb attacks killed
civilians, turning Moslems against al Qaeda in a big way. But the
terrorists justify such counterproductive attacks because their doctrine
holds that Moslems who don’t agree with them are not really Moslems.
You can imagine how well that goes over with the survivors and the many
potential victims. You can, but al Qaeda can’t, and that is what
guarantees their decline and eventual transformation into an obscure
cult (which is where groups like it begin). Since all this is religion
based, and Islam is a faith that calls for world conquest and violent
intolerance of other faiths, you have a large pool of ambitious and
murderous new recruits who have been staffing major outbreaks of this
terrorism for over a thousand years. Many Moslems insist they do not
support the "world conquest" crowd, but few are willing to confront the
maniacs head-on and denounce the killing on religious grounds. Islam has
some internal problems that Moslems will have to deal with before all
this unpleasantness goes away. Meanwhile, it is interesting to note that
the various Arab Spring movements were initially dominated by
pro-democracy groups. Islamic radicals were a minority, and one that was
often better organized, feared, and not trusted, either. Thus the
Islamic conservatives were better organized and have been winning the
elections and providing more sanctuary for Islamic terrorists (for a
while, anyway). Osama bin Laden was killed by American commandos in
2011, and there were some "revenge" attacks (mostly in Pakistan, where
bin Laden was hiding in plain sight). But it's not the terrorist
backlash that's important. International terrorism has created an
international backlash and a war unlike any other. These days, most
terrorist victories are in the media. On the ground, the terrorists are
losing everywhere. Their last refuges are chaotic, or cynical, places
like Iran, Syria, Lebanon, Somalia, Gaza, Mali, the Sahel, a few of the
Philippine islands, and especially tribal regions of Pakistan (where al
Qaeda is staging a well-publicized last stand). They were chased out of
Iraq (and replaced by terrorists who were diehard Sunni Arab
nationalists), Indonesia, and the Philippines. Iran continues to support
terrorism in the face of much local disapproval. Lebanon is in chaos
because of Iranian subsidized terrorists. Gaza went the same way.
Islamic radicals are a traditional reaction to tyranny in their region
and the inability of local despots to rule effectively. Economic and
diplomatic ties with the West are interpreted as support for
"un-Islamic" thought and behavior, leading to attacks on Western
targets. After 2001, this resulted in a devastating counterattack that
continues, despite frustration at the slowness of the Moslem world to
act.
YEMEN
It's still unclear where the al Qaeda survivors of last year’s
anti-terrorist offensive will flee to, as all of the usual refuges are
not so safe anymore. Mali attracted some Yemeni based terrorists for a
few months last year, until France led a surprise (and very fast moving)
offensive into northern Mali seven months ago. Some terrorists from
Mali have moved back to Yemen, where small groups of Islamic terrorists
are operating from remote rural bases. These remnants are broke,
disorganized, and desperate. Sounds like Yemen in general. The Arab
Spring hit Yemen hard and upset the "arrangement" that left one group of
tribal, criminal, and business leaders in charge for over three
decades. This uprising was finally resolved towards the end of 2011. A
successor coalition emerged and persuaded (with the promise of amnesty)
the old dictator Saleh to step down. Meanwhile, there are still many
Yemenis who have a grudge against the government. Most of this can be
traced back to the civil war that ended, sort of, in 1994. That war was
caused by the fact that, when the British left Yemen in 1967, their
former colony in Aden became one of two countries called Yemen. The two
Yemens finally united in 1990, but another civil war in 1994 was needed
to seal the deal. That fix didn't really take and the north and south
have always been pulling apart. This comes back to the fact that Yemen
has always been a region, not a country. Like most of the rest of the
Persian Gulf and Horn of Africa region, the normal form of government,
until the last century or so, was wealthier coastal city states,
nervously coexisting with interior tribes that got by on herding or
farming (or a little of both). This whole "nation" idea is still looked
on with some suspicion by many in the region. This is why the most
common forms of government are the more familiar ones of antiquity
(kingdom, emirate or modern variation in the form of a hereditary
dictatorship). For a long time the most active Yemeni rebels were the
Shia Islamic militants in the north. They want to restore local Shia
rule in the traditional tribal territories, led by the local imam
(religious leader). This arrangement, after surviving more than a
thousand years, was ended by the central government in 1962. Yemen also
became the new headquarters of "Al Qaeda in Arabia" (Saudi Arabia no
longer being safe for the terrorists) after 2007. Islamic terrorists
have been more active since the government began arresting key members
of al Qaeda in 2010. Other groups (mainly tribal leaders) in the south
wanted more say in the government and a larger share of the oil revenue
and foreign aid. In early 2012, the new ruling coalition massed its
military and tribal forces and decisively defeated al Qaeda in the
south. The tribes that had allied themselves with al Qaeda quickly made
temporary peace but the separatists are still active, as are the Shia
tribes in the north.
