Ukraine - Russian Roulette

Russia says Syria's Assad "still solid"

President Bashar al-Assad's government remains "solid" and is still backed by many Syrians who fear those who could take his place, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov said in remarks published yesterday.

Bogdanov, who is also the Kremlin's special envoy for Middle East affairs, told Le Figaro newspaper that Assad had promised Russia he would be ready to step aside if Syrians chose another leader in an election, although he could not say how "sincere" the Syrian leader was.

Moscow has strongly opposed any foreign intervention in Syria and has repeatedly called on the West and Arabs to press rebels to stop fighting.

"The regime is still solid. It is getting important support from the population," Bogdanov said after meeting Syrian dissidents in Paris.

"This support is not motivated by the Syrians' love of Bashar al-Assad, but more their fear of those who could succeed him," he said.

Bogdanov said Moscow had not lost "hope" of reaching a diplomatic solution if the U.N. Security Council could formally endorse an agreement brokered by former U.N. Syria envoy Kofi Annan which sees a transitional governing authority for Syria.

When the agreement Russia wants the Security Council to endorse was reached in late June, it left open the question of what part Assad might play in a Syrian political process.

Bogdanov said Assad had promised Moscow he would step aside if he lost in an election.

"Assad told us himself. But I don't know how sincere he is," Bogdanov said. "But he clearly told us that if the people didn't want him, and if they chose a different leader in an election, he would go."

Malaysia to extradite Iranian accused of plotting to attack Israeli targets abroad

Iranian man accused of plotting to bomb Israeli targets in Bangkok in February denies any involvement in terrorist organizations; court rules to extradite the man to Thailand.

Injured man lies on the ground after a bomb he was carrying exploded, in Bangkok February 14, 2012

A Malaysian court ruled Monday that an Iranian man accused of plotting to attack Israeli targets in Bangkok must be extradited to Thailand. Masoud Sedaghatzadeh said he planned to appeal the decision. He is not expected to be immediately deported.

Sedaghatzadeh was arrested at a Malaysian airport soon after an apparently accidental explosion rocked a Bangkok neighborhood on Feb. 14. Bombs were found at the house, where the explosion occurred, and Thai police say Sedaghatzadeh, and two other Iranian men now in Thai custody, had been seen leaving the house. Thai officials have said Israeli diplomats may have been the targets of the alleged plot.

A Kuala Lumpur district court on Monday ruled in favor of the Malaysian government's bid to deport Sedaghatzadeh to the Thai capital. Sedaghatzadeh has 15 days to file an appeal, said his lawyer, Nashir Hussin.

Malaysian prosecutors have said the Iranian was wanted by Thailand on suspicion of "taking part in making and possessing an explosive device" as well as causing an explosion that led to human injuries and property damage. He faces life in prison if convicted in Thailand.

Israel has blamed Iran for the explosions, which wounded five including one of the alleged bombers, as well as two incidents the day before: a bombing in India that wounded an Israeli diplomat's wife and driver, and an attempted bombing in the former Soviet republic of Georgia. Iran has denied involvement.

Supported by Putin Lavrov’s Russia- Syria unrest spreads, 63 killed

Syrians pray at a cemetery in Tal Refaat village near Aleppo during the burial of 70-year-old Amina Ahmed Kabso, who was killed in the latest spate of violence. AFP photo

Violence in Syria killed at least 63 people yesterday, nearly half of them troops who died in clashes with rebels, as the bloodshed reached new heights, said the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

At least 16 soldiers were killed in the northern Aleppo province, while one died in an attack on his vehicle in neighboring Idlib province and the rest died in fighting elsewhere in Idlib and in the provinces of Damascus and Deir Ez-zor in the east.

In Idlib province, 10 civilians died, including seven members of the same family killed in shelling in the town of Jericho, where clashes took place earlier. Thirteen people were killed in Deir Ez-zor, including three rebels shot by sniper fire, and a girl was killed by shelling elsewhere in the province.

“This is one of the bloodiest weeks in the conflict,” the Observatory’s Rami Abdel Rahman told Agence France-Presse. According to the Observatory’s figures, 94 people were killed in Syria on Monday, 62 on Tuesday, 88 on Wednesday, 168 on Thursday, 116 on Friday and 116 on Saturday.

Russia insists on helicopters

In Amman, Jordanian Information Minister Sameeh Maaytah said yesterday that three other Syrian pilots had defected last week, even before a pilot flew his warplane into neighboring Jordan. He said the other three crossed overland into Jordan. He was unsure if the four pilots knew each other or had coordinated their escape from Syria.

Meanwhile, a ship carrying Russian helicopters to Syria, which turned back after its insurance was cut, is expected to resume its journey accompanied by at least one other vessel, Interfax reported yesterday, citing a military source.

The report is likely to reignite international criticism of Russia’s arms deliveries to Syria which U.S. officials have called reprehensible and the Arab League has said should be stopped. “A military-diplomatic source in Moscow told Interfax that (the ship) will go from Murmansk to Syria. According to his information the ship should travel under escort,” the news agency reported, according to Reuters.

The ship Alaed, which entered the Russian port of Murmansk yesterday to change its flag to the Russian Standard, will not be accompanied by military vessels, the source said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The reason why Putin & Lavrov's Russia SUPPORTS the Syrian Regeime and it Slaughter of its Citizen's

Why Is Access To Syria's Port At Tartus So Important To Moscow?

More than its weapons sales to the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Russia's greatest strategic and geopolitical interest in Syria is the use of a deep-water port at Tartus. RFE/RL takes a closer look at this arrangement.

How long has Moscow been using Syria's port at Tartus as a strategic naval base in the Mediterranean?

The Soviet Navy began using Syria's deep-water port at Tartus for submarines and surface vessels under a 1971 agreement with Damascus. The Soviet Union was Syria's main arms supplier and Tartus was used to receive Soviet weapons bought by Damascus.

The Soviet Fifth Mediterranean Squadron also used the docks at the base to load its own fuel and supplies. The Soviet Navy had similar support points in Egypt, but the Soviets evacuated the Egyptian bases in the late 1970s, sending ships and equipment to Tartus instead.

That transformed Tartus into the Soviet 229th Naval and Estuary Vessel Support Division. In the mid 1980s, Tartus was upgraded to become the 720th Logistics Support Point for the Soviet Navy. The Russian Navy continued using Tartus after the Soviet broke up in 1991.

How has Russia managed to maintain a presence at Tartus after the collapse of the Soviet Union? By 1990, Syria had built up debts of $13.4 billion to Moscow largely due to weapons purchases by Damascus. In May 2005, Russian Finance Minister Aleksei Kudrin signed a deal with Syrian Finance Minister Muhammad al-Hussein that wrote off 73 percent of Syria's Soviet-era debt.

Russia ensured that it continued to have base rights at Tartus under the 1971 treaty as a result of the debt write-off deal, which cleared the way for Damascus to make fresh weapons purchases from Russia.

In terms of logistics, how does Russia's presence at Tartus bolster Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime? Tartus is the receiving point for Russian weapons shipments to Syria. The port is the country's transport hub for newly purchased arms as well as for weapons that must be returned to Russia for repair, such as attack helicopters. The port is linked inland to a well-developed network of roads and highways.

Syria's only railway passenger connection from Tartus is linked to the port of Latakia further north. However, the national railway operator, Chimins de Fer Syriens, also operates military transport routes from Tartus to major cities across Syria.

How does Tartus serve Russia's strategic and geopolitical interests? Even a semipermanent base at Tartus allows the Russian Navy to expand its presence in the eastern Mediterranean Sea. Russia's largest and most important military base in a foreign country is the Black Sea Fleet base in Sevastopol, Ukraine.

To deploy beyond the Black Sea, Russian warships based at Sevastopol must pass through the Bosporus Strait, which has been militarized by NATO-member Turkey.

Under the 1936 Montreux Convention, the Bosporus was deemed an international shipping lane with military restrictions. Under a 1982 amendment, Turkey now retains the right to close the Strait at its discretion in peacetime as well as during wartime.

As Russia's only Mediterranean base, that makes Tartus a vital strategic asset beyond the Bosporus. As a deep water port, it can dock nuclear submarines. Moscow is reportedly planning to expand the facilities so it can accommodate the Russian Navy's flagship -- the "Admiral Kuznetsov" aircraft carrier -- after 2012.

Tartus also strengthens Russia's great-power aspirations and increases its influence in regional diplomacy.

Could Russia's use of Tartus be affected by the ouster of Assad's regime? Analysts agree that Russian vetoes of UN Security Council resolutions against Assad's crackdown on dissent, as well as Russian weapons sales to the regime, make it likely that an opposition government replacing Assad would try to strip away Russia's rights to use Tartus.

Last autumn, as popular opposition to Assad's regime was growing, Russia took steps to expand basing rights for its warships in Venezuela. It also deployed a naval task force to Tartus, led by the "Admiral Kuznetsov" aircraft carrier, which is staying nearby for what Moscow describes as a long-term training mission in the Mediterranean and Atlantic.