Although the latest round of sanctions have cut
Iranian oil exports by over half (and oil income by two-thirds because of
higher expenses and deep discounts needed to attract buyers for illegal Iranian
oil), Iran announced that it would not stop enriching uranium for its
(officially non-existent) nuclear weapons program. Iran
has cash reserves but it cannot afford to let the general population suffer too
much. That suffering is already evident but it could take a year or more before
it became really painful. The government is basically a religious dictatorship
that seized control in the 1980s and has just barely coped with declining
popularity. Eventually the loss of oil income could screw things up enough to
trigger a popular rebellion. That could get very nasty, as the government has
an army of religious fanatics (the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps or IRGC).
This is more than just the "royal guard" of the Iranian dictatorship.
Originally founded to do the clerics dirty work, and keep an eye on the Iranian
armed forces, and population in general, the IRGC has grown to become a
state-within-a-state. The IRGC not only has 150,000 armed members but also
controls billions of dollars’ worth of businesses inside Iran
and runs numerous terrorist operations outside the country. The IRGC, or at
least large parts of it, can be depended on to follow orders and slaughter
rebellious civilians. The ruling clerics are determined to avoid losing power
like the East European communist dictatorships did in 1989. The clerics have
made sure most Iranians know this and what the price of rebellion would be.
Meanwhile, a growing number of reform-minded Iranians are
fleeing the country. The crackdown that began after huge protests against
rigged elections in 2009, continues. About 45,000 Iranians have officially
sought political asylum in West since 2009, and many more just fled and kept
quiet. This outflow of reform-minded Iranians pleases the government but it’s
not enough. There are still a lot of Iranians angry at the corrupt and cruel
religious dictatorship they have endured for over two decades.
One of the biggest economic obstacles created by the latest
sanctions is the inability of Iran
to use U.S. dollars. While Iran
has threatened to switch to euros or Chinese yuan, this has not been practical.
But Iran has
found an alternative currency of sorts: gold. Since the new sanctions kicked in
earlier this year, there has been a major shift in global gold sales and
shipments. Billions of dollars’ worth of gold is flowing into Iran,
especially from Turkey
(to pay for natural gas imports). While some nations have received temporary
exemptions from the sanctions to buy Iranian oil (until they could line up
other suppliers), there have not been any exemptions to dealing with Iran
in dollars. It’s more expensive for Iran
to take payment in gold (higher fees and transportation costs) but it is
working. Alas, the huge Iranian purchases will drive up the price, which will
then fall when Iran
again gains access to the international banking system. That access was
sharply curtained over the last year, as investigators identified major banks
that had been, for years, illegally handling transactions for Iran.
Several billions dollars in fines, and the addition of monitors within the
accused banks, put a big chill on any further illegal banking activity for Iran.
The government continues in its effort to cut the country
off from the Internet, by building an internal Internet just for those in Iran
who cannot be trusted with the World Wide Web. That means most Iranians are
finding it more and more difficult to reach the international Internet.
Recently Iran
introduced a heavily censored local version of YouTube. China
is helping Iran
to censor Iranian use of the Internet.
It’s not just political reformers who are angry. There’s
growing discontent among Azeris. A quarter of Iranians are Turks (Azeris) but
they are Shia and prominent in the religious leadership (that actually rules Iran).
While these Azeri clerics have been enthusiastic supporters (and leaders in)
the government, most Azeris are angry at the growing economic decline in the country.
At the moment Azeris are particularly upset at a lack of government aid after
major earthquakes in the northeast (where most Azeris live) last August. There
have been a growing number of anti-government demonstrations, and casualties
because of this, along with some dead and wounded. Only about half of Iranians
are ethnic (Indo-European) Iranians. The rest are various minorities who often
feel like subject peoples of an Iranian empire. For many ethnic Iranians, the
empire still exists and it’s a good thing to remind the non-Iranians from time
to time.
Relations with Turkey
continue to get worse. The NATO decision to send Patriot anti-aircraft
batteries Turkey
requested has made Iranian leaders very angry. They won’t actually do anything,
although military leaders have announced that the presence of the Patriots
could cause World War 3. This does not make Turks feel any better about their
neighbor. Historically, the two regional superpowers have been evenly matched
over the past thousand years, with the Turks having a military edge but not a
decisive one. Neither empire was able to conquer the other, but the Turks did
drive Iran out
of Baghdad, a 500 year old defeat
that still rankles in Iran.
The fact that many Iranians still believe central and southern Iraq
should be part of Iran
makes many Iraqis nervous.
Iran
gets mixed reviews among Palestinians. More radical Palestinians praise Iran
for supplying Hamas with the rockets used in Gaza
to fire into Israel.
Arab states that provide economic aid to Hamas refuse to supply weapons but Iran
does. Iran also
tries to convert the largely Sunni Palestinians to Shia Islam and encourages
Hamas to impose strict life-style rules on Gazans. Unfortunately for Iran,
Sunni Islamic conservatism includes regarding Shia as heretics. To maintain
relations with Hamas, Iran
has had to back off on trying to convert Palestinians to the Shia form of Islam
that dominates Iran.
At the same time, Hamas quietly discourages Sunni Islamic radicals from coming
down too hard on Gaza Shia. Hamas also remains quiet on what is happening to
Palestinians in Syria.
There, a half million Palestinians are split over support for the Iran
backed Assad dictatorship. For decades the Assads had provided sanctuary for
Palestinian refugees and terrorists. But many of these Palestinians backed the
rebels and this caused a civil war within the Palestinian community. Iran
has said little about this, even when Syria
sent aircraft to bomb Palestinian refugee camps. All this merely illustrates
that Shia Iran supports Sunni Palestinians only if they will be allies in the
Iranian campaign to destroy Israel.
Iran
has been hit by another computer virus that destroys data and entire hard
drives. A similar attack in April did a lot of damage. Although aimed at government
computers, a lot of home PCs were hit as well. These two attacks are thought to
be from small groups of Israeli hackers, acting alone to strike back at Iran
(which is constantly calling for the destruction of Israel
and the killing of all Jews).
December 16, 2012:
The government officially called for a cease fire and peace talks in Syria.
Unofficially the government now believes the Assads and their Shia government
in largely Sunni Syria is doomed. Iran
is now seeking ways to limit the damage (to its reputation in the Arab world,
especially regarding its Shia militia client Hezbollah in Lebanon).
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad cancelled a visit to Turkey (at the invitation of
the Turkish government) because yesterday a senior Iranian general threatened
Turkey with war because Turkey had requested and received NATO Patriot
anti-aircraft batteries to make sure Syrian warplanes don’t attack Turkish
targets. Iranians consider a better armed Turkey
as a threat and a provocation.
December 13, 2012:
The U.S. imposed sanctions on seven Iranian companies and five individuals
believed involved in Iran’s
nuclear weapons program. This puts the companies and individuals under
additional restrictions and scrutiny.
December 8, 2012:
After a battle with drug smugglers in the southeast, police seized 11 tons of
Afghan opium being brought in via Pakistan.
Drug addiction is a growing social and economic problem in Iran
and nearly all the drugs come from Afghanistan.
Two Iranian navy ships (a corvette and a supply ship) visited
Sudan, the
second such visit in five weeks. The growing frequency of these visits is
believed to assist Iranian smuggling efforts.
December 7, 2012:
The government complained to Azerbaijan
about the Azeris using their newly purchased Israeli Hermes 450 UAV to patrol
along the Iranian border.
The Azeris told the Iranians to back off because the UAVs
were not straying into Iran.
