Nigeria - The Power Of Plunder

Oil, or any natural resources bonanza, has proved to be a curse to less-developed nations. Nigeria is one of the worst examples. The temptation to steal that money is irresistible to many and the result is pockets of luxury surrounded by a sea of poverty. About half the population doesn’t even have electricity. Roads, schools, hospitals and all sorts of infrastructure are in short supply. Even the oil industry infrastructure is plundered, which is why Nigeria only produces about half as much oil (two million barrels a day) that it is capable of. Even that is enough to account for 95 percent of exports and 40 percent of the federal budget. 

 

In the last year the government tried, for the first time, to accurately count the losses in the oil industry. The conclusion was that the theft, from pipelines and government bank accounts, amounted to over $10 billion a year in the last decade. The annual GDP of Nigeria is $238 billion, for a population of 165 million ($1,440 per capita). Oil accounts for about 14 percent of GDP and unemployment is currently about 25 percent. The report revealed, in detail and for all to see, what a lot of Nigerians had known for a long time. The theft is so pervasive (40 percent of refined petroleum products are stolen) that the activity is hard to miss. Eliminating the stealing will be difficult, because most politicians and political parties are financed by stolen oil money. The well-funded thieves are organized and determined to hang on to their wealth. Judges and police can be bought and many oil thieves have already been prosecuted and escaped. But there is progress. The oil thieves are under attack, some do lose, but the war will go on for years and there will be a lot of defeats.

In the north there is more and more popular hostility to Boko Haram. The Islamic radicals, despite pledges to clean up corruption and a lot of other problems, are being seen as a cure worse than the disease. As a result police are getting more tips about where Boko Haram members and equipment are hidden.   

Investigations into how Boko Haram gets its weapons revealed that many of them come in via southern ports, taking advantage of corrupt customs officials. Smuggling is a big business and the bribed port officials usually don’t check to see that they are letting in illegally. 

In the north police have uncovered a criminal gang that was pretending to be Boko Haram and killing southerners who refused to pay a large amount of cash to get off the hit list. Most paid but enough did not to leave a suspicious pattern of murdered people.

Nigeria and Niger have agreed to conduct joint patrols and coordinate operations along their 1,400 kilometer border, the better to limit Boko Haram movements. 

October 21, 2012: In the northeast (Potiskum in Yobe State) the expected Boko Haram attacks took place, leaving over 30 dead and several government buildings burned down over the last two days. Thousands of people have begun leaving the city of Potiskum, which is 230 kilometers west of the Boko Haram stronghold of Maiduguri. 

October 19, 2012: In the north (Borno State) a Boko Haram leader (Shuaibu Mohammed Bama) was arrested in the home of a politician (senator Ahmed Zanna) who had been suspected of supporting Boko Haram. Politicians have long been known to make deals with criminal organizations, and Boko Haram is no exception. 

In the northeastern city of Maiduguri, troops battled Boko Haram attackers, leaving at least six dead (including a Chinese man shot down by Boko Haram). 

October 18, 2012: In the northeast (Yobe State) an army raid hit a new Boko Haram hideout as the group was preparing to launch new attacks.

 

EU bans import of Iranian gas to European countries – German FM

German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle said the EU is banning the import of Iranian natural gas into union nations. The announcement came as EU governments agreed to one of the toughest sets of sanctions yet on Iran's nuclear program.

The sanctions also include a ban on financial transactions between European and Iranian banks, with some exceptions for those involving humanitarian aid, food, and medicine purchases.

The decision was made during Monday’s meeting of EU foreign ministers in Luxembourg.

“The [EU] Council has agreed additional restrictive measures in the financial, trade, energy and transport sectors, as well as additional designations, notably of entities active in the oil and gas industry," a written statement issued by the European Union council said.

Further export restrictions were imposed on industrial software, graphite, and the metals which the EU believes could be used to develop ballistic missiles. The new restrictions also prohibit eurozone companies from providing shipbuilding technology and classification services to Iranian tankers and cargo vessels.

The sanctions aim to pressure Iran to cooperate in talks regarding its nuclear program. British Foreign Secretary William Hague said the new sanctions were a “sign of our resolve in the European Union that we will step up the pressure.”

Also on Monday, leading European satellite provider Eutelsat SA took 19 Iranian television and radio broadcasters off the air, in a move to abide by earlier EU sanctions. The decision prompted accusations of censorship and threats of lawsuits from Iranian state television.

“We terminated the contracts because it was the order of the European Commission. We have to follow it,” Karen Badalov, area manager of Eutelsat SA, told Press TV.

This is the second round of EU sanctions imposed on Iran in the past few months.

In July, the European Union banned the import of Iranian crude oil, as well as financial services relating to the sale, purchase and transport of Iranian oil.

The sanctions marked a major policy change for the EU, which was traditionally a major importer of Iranian oil.

The decision followed a set of sanctions issued by the US last June, when Washington banned the world's banks from making oil-related transactions with Iranian financial institutions. Previous US sanctions have banned almost all trade with Iran, with certain exceptions for activity ‘intended to benefit the Iranian people.’

Several other countries – including Switzerland, Japan, Australia and Canada – have also imposed sanctions on Iran in recent years, in response to what they describe as Tehran’s lack of cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA).

The US and its allies have long accused Iran of using its nuclear program as a cover to develop atomic weapons, though Tehran frequently vows its program is solely for civilian purposes.

Iraq intends to replace Exxon with Russian companies – reports

Iraq is reportedly considering replacing US oil major ExxonMobil with Russian companies in the West Qurna-1 project, as the authorities are angered by ExxonMobil’s deal signed with the Kurdistan regional government without Baghdad’s approval.

Baghdad is considering inviting Russia's LUKOIL and Gazprom Neft – both already operating a number of projects in the country, instead of Exxon Mobil to develop the West Qurna-1, Nefte Compass weekly reported on Thursday. With the step Baghdad would signal international companies operating in Kurdistan that it rejects any agreements with the semi-autonomous region’s government, sources in the industry told RT.

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has reportedly offered the deal to Russian President Vladimir Putin at the meeting Wednesday, the newspaper said. However, no such offers have been officially announced.

Russia's second-largest oil producer LUKOIL has refrained from comment. But Lukoil sources told RT that the company hasn’t received any official offers. Currently the oil major is developing the West Qurna-2 oil field in partnership with Iraqi state-run North Oil Company after Norway’s Statoil left the project. LUKOIL holds a dominant 75% share.

On Wednesday Gazprom Neft, the oil arm of Russia's top natural gas producer Gazprom, froze two contracts for oil development in the Kurdistan region, according to the Iraqi PM. In August the company signed two production sharing contracts with the Kurdistan Regional Government directly avoiding Iraqi Oil Ministry approval. The company declined to comment, though a source told Reuters that Gazprom Neft is still interested in Kurdistan’s oil.

The Russian oil major is already developing the 300 million barrel Badra deposit near the Iranian border. It holds a 30% stake in the project, along with South Korea's Kogas with 22.5%, Malaysia's Petronas with 15% and Iraq's state-owned Oil Exploration Company with 25% in the project. Production is due to start by 2013.

‘Suppliers of arms to opposition want to destroy the Syrian people’ – Iraqi PM

States that send arms to Syria face upheavals and unrest due to sectarian violence, their stability will be in jeopardy and the state of affairs will be no better than in Syria, warned Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki in an interview to SW.

"He who starts a fire will be destroyed by fire in the end,” Al-Maliki stated, predicting that sponsorship of the Syrian opposition will backfire on supporting states.

SW: What do Iraq and Russia have in common in terms of their approach to the Syrian crisis; and do you think the two countries can come up with a joint proposal on how to settle it?

Nouri Al-Maliki: Of course, the crisis is a matter of serious concern both for the countries in the region and for the world’s major powers. And it’s not only countries – this issue has been on the agenda of many international organizations. We have repeatedly said that we take the Syrian crisis as our own problem. It is a very important country, with its own political position. We did warn everyone earlier – and keep reminding – that the fire that started in Syria will spill over the borders to engulf other countries of the region and, in the end, it will have a global impact. The Middle East is one of the major energy producers of the world.

Just like Russia, we believe that the use of force cannot be a solution to the crisis. Many other countries now share this approach, even those that used to think that supplying arms to the opposition would be sufficient to generate regime change. They now recognize that it is impossible to settle the Syrian crisis through the use of force. This is also Russia’s position.

Russia, Iraq and many other countries are united in their conviction that force will not end the crisis in Syria – we need to look for a peaceful solution through political dialogue. It is our joint task – I mean Iraq, Russia and the whole international community – to help both sides find common ground, to agree on a mutually-acceptable form of government.

This new government must be based on the principles of freedom and democracy. The Syrians must have the right to vote, they must have a Constitution. These are the things that the Syrian people demanded when they started the revolution. But of course, not everybody in Syria agrees with these demands, some groups don’t think that reforms are needed. We’ve heard different statements and demands. Of course dialogue will continue, because we are very much concerned about what’s going on in Syria. We have been seriously affected by the situation in Syria. We have experienced some spillover effects of the Syrian crisis here in Iraq.

We will discuss this issue with our Russian counterparts; we will talk about possible ways to make existing initiatives effective, including the original peace plan put forward by the Arab League, as opposed to the flawed proposals made during the sessions of the ministerial committee and the Geneva agreements. According to them, there is no military solution to the conflict. The agreements call for an end to arms supplies both to the opposition and the regime. Unfortunately, a number of states ignore these initiatives and continue to send arms to Syria, which only makes the situation worse.

This is where Russia, Iraq, China, and many Muslim and Arab countries in the region agree. It is our duty to address this issue and try to find ways out of this turmoil which, we are afraid, might turn into a fully-fledged regional war.

SW: How would you assess the calls by some countries, especially Arab countries that have the support of the West, for military intervention in order to resolve the crisis in Syria?

NM: I’d give them a piece of brotherly advice: “Forget it! He who starts a fire will be destroyed by fire in the end.” Those who want Syria to follow this path have to understand that it will destroy the Syrian people. This is what’s happening in Syria right now. Cities lie in ruins, the war rages on and is likely to spill over involving new actors – international, regional, religious and political ones. If they care about themselves and their people, if they seek stability and security, if they care about Syria and its people, they have to stop sowing the seeds of discord by supplying arms. They also have to stop thinking it will be them who will shape Syria’s future.

I met with several representatives of the Syrian opposition and I felt they understand the threat that is coming from the Arab forces that provide them with weapons. These forces openly declare that they want to interfere in Syria’s affairs. But the Syrian nation is against it.

SW: Do you share the view that it’s foreign interference in Syria’s affairs that’s made the situation in the country so dangerous?

NM: Absolutely. And they will keep driving it to an even more dangerous degree until eventually it will backfire on the states that are now sponsoring the Syrian opposition. All these states will face upheavals and unrest due to sectarian violence, foreign interference, the spillover effect and expansion. They’re already feeling it. If these countries keep sending arms and using force for a regime change, their stability will be in jeopardy, and the situation inside these countries will be no better than in Syria.

SW: What do you think about the “national partnership government”? Is this the best form of governance to help to move Iraq forward or are there any negative aspects that make that government less effective? What do you think of “the majority government”, something many other countries rely on?

NM: A partnership government has exhausted both its capacity and agenda. It was necessary during previous stages, but not any longer. Right now everyone, even the people of Iraq, feel that the regime of national partnership keeps our hands tied, hinders our development, stands in the way of the breakthrough that Iraq could make in the development of infrastructure, the services sector and economic recovery.

We hear more and more voices now, in our society and in parliament, calling for a shift to a majority government, to make parliament united so that it can pass decisions and laws that would help to rule the state; because right now the government is paralyzed. It can’t do anything. The partnership originally built to pursue a major breakthrough has now degraded to a partnership that generates obstacles. Because of that we need a majority government, and I am working hard to make it a reality.

SW: Both the Iraqi government and its citizens still suffer from regular terror attacks. Who is behind this violence – international players interfering in your affairs or Al-Qaeda militants opposing the political process? Or are there any other reasons that the Iraqi people are not aware of? Why is it so hard to take out these armed groups that are still out there?

NM: Violence continues and it’s been down to all the factors you have mentioned. Foreign intervention is fully underway. What they want to do is to use these acts of violence to prepare for the next, post-Syrian stage. It’s the same states that are now interfering in Syria. They are sending arms and militants there, over and over again. Their goal is to change Syria, then Iraq, and ultimately the entire region. Also, Al-Qaeda is back, it came to life again – regrettably, as part of the Arab Spring. It flooded the streets in the capitals of Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen. Its slogans, groups and terrorist attacks are clear signs of its revival, and Iraq couldn’t escape that. And those states that are interfering won’t escape it either.

But the really embarrassing thing is that the national partnership government cannot be effective in the fight against terrorism. That’s the problem. When your partner supports both security measures and terrorist acts, you get problems. I wouldn’t like to go into detail now. I am only saying that this is one of the downsides to the national partnership. How can we expect security agencies to control the situation when the government’s own money, arms, transport, and the nature of the government are used to support those seeking to carry out terrorist attacks?

SW: Mr. Maliki, when Iraq was about to buy F-16 fighter jets, Iraqi Kurds, along with some neighboring states, including the Gulf countries voiced their concerns over the future deal. Are these concerns justified? And can they be allayed?

NM: They are totally unsubstantiated. These people might still have old stereotypes of Iraq that go back to the times of dictatorship that were characterized by reckless operations, wars and invasions. Some regimes, both big and small, still have expansionist ambitions. Sadly, they have learned no lessons from Saddam Hussein’s experience. He had it all: troops and offensive capabilities, but the end of his career was a disaster. These people still believe that just like in the past, Iraq is still capable of invading its neighbors, concocting conspiracies, attacking other countries like Iran, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia or slaughtering people in its southern or northern regions.

But today Iraq is a different country. It does not wage war on its own people. The Kurds who believe that Iraq is taking up arms to fight them are seriously deluded.

These talks are no more than political maneuvering used to make up for the mistakes and failures of the past. These countries are aware that present-day Iraq has nothing in common with the dictatorship of the past. It is a democratic country which is against the use of force, as set forth in the laws adopted by its parliament. Generally speaking, our main principle is non-interference in the affairs of other states. But we would like this to be a two-way street.

But the reality is that Iraq is located in an arms-infested region. All the neighboring states have impressive arsenals of modern weapons. Even the smaller states in the region have more weapons than Iraq, a large state with a rich history. Iraq is entitled to self-defense, so it has the right to use different armaments to protect its sovereignty. And so it can have the same weapons as other countries who claim they need the same weapons as Iraq to defend their sovereignty.

I would like to allay their concerns by saying that Iraq is not interested in offensive weapons, only defensive ones. Indeed, we would like to have very strong defensive weapons to repel any attack on Iraq’s sovereignty. But primitive weapons won’t be enough. What we need is something very strong and absolutely sophisticated to counter any possible aggression. This would make anyone who plans to breach our sovereignty to think twice before attacking Iraq.

SW: Mr Prime Minister, as commander-in-chief, when do you expect Iraq’s armed forces to reach combat readiness in terms of the size of personnel and materials?

SW: We already have the number of troops that we need, but we are still working on the list of weapons and hardware. We are receiving weapons supplies from the US, former Soviet nations and possibly from Russia, too, in line with the contracts that we signed earlier. However, we expect to ensure maximum defensive capabilities by 2020, according to the plans we have at the moment. By that time we expect to re-equip the armed forces with powerful weapons to protect Iraq on land and in the air. So currently we would still be able to defend the nation but our capabilities need to be maintained and further improved.

Iran - Determined, Defiant And Broke

Oil production has shrunk to 800,000 barrels a day, a level not seen since the 1980s, during the war with Iraq (who bombed Iranian oil fields and tankers). Inflation is making items like meat, medicine, and imported goods too expensive for most Iranians. Inflation is out of control and the value of the rial (Iranian currency) against the dollar and other foreign currency continues to decline. It costs nearly three times as much to buy dollars with rials versus a year ago. Even with more currency being printed, the government cannot get everyone paid on time.

The loss of Iranian oil has not driven up oil prices. There is plenty of supply, with new sources from North America and lower demand because of worldwide recession filling in for the missing (because of sanctions that began last June) Iranian supplies (nearly two million barrels a day). Iran is seeking to sell its oil at large discounts to anyone willing to risk getting caught and punished. Iran apparently has millions of barrels of its oil sitting in tankers off Malaysia, waiting for Asian buyers to make an offer.

Angered at the growing number of (often very effective) Cyber War weapons unleashed against it, Iran has struck back with attacks on the web sites of Western corporations and banks. This is primitive stuff but apparently all Iran could muster. There are some Cyber War mercenaries available and Iran appears to have used some of these.

A government news agency, owned by a religious education group, recently publicized an attack on a cleric by two teenage girls he had criticized for not "covering up." The elderly cleric was hospitalized for three days. It was not reported if the girls were caught and punished. This new story was official recognition of a growing problem: women (and men) fighting back against lifestyle restrictions. After the story of the two rebellious girls appeared, Western reporters found many Iranians willing to recount similar incidents, including those where the women were caught, jailed, and beaten by police. This has not stopped the attacks.

More countries, especially Arab Gulf states (like the UAE) are now cooperating in blocking Iranian smuggling efforts. This is particularly the case with items meant for the Iranian nuclear program. It used to be that Iran could buy cooperation from Arab smugglers but that has suddenly become much more difficult.

September 24, 2012: The government announced the introduction of upgraded Russian anti-aircraft missile systems. The Taer-2 missiles appear to be updated SA-6s (a 1970s design), while another system (Raad) was based on the more recent Russian Buk, obtained via Syria (who bought them from Russia with Iranian cash).

September 23, 2012: The government cut access to Google and gmail. This is apparently a prelude to cutting the country off from the Internet and leaving only Iranian web sites functioning. This can work because the Internet was built to operate no matter how much of it had been shut down (by nuclear war, according to the original specifications half a century ago). Iranians will still be able to use expensive satellite communications or, near the border, cell phones to access the worldwide Internet. So forbidden news will still get in and be circulated. But the government will sharply limit the ability of Iranians to regularly communicate with people outside the country (especially the millions of Iranians living abroad). There will still be official worldwide Internet access within Iran but only with government approval and considerable restrictions.  Such "intranets" are quite common. The U.S. government and many large corporations use them for security reasons.

September 22, 2012: As the new academic year begins in Iranian universities, women are facing many more restrictions. This is all part of a government effort to reduce the growing dominance of women at universities. Currently 60 percent of university students are women and the females outperform their male counterparts. To deal with this women are now barred (in 36 of 343 universities) from 77 majors (including accounting, counseling, and engineering) and most universities will be forced to hold separate classes for men and women. The government wants fewer women in universities and is trying to persuade women to have more children. The government also wants fewer urban reform activists. Many of these are university students and more than half are women. Decades of living under a religious dictatorship has produced rising unemployment and less optimism among most Iranians. That has led to a plunging birth rate. The government is ignoring its role in all these problems, mainly because the ruling clerics see themselves as on a Mission From God.

September 21, 2012: The U.S. put sanctions on 117 Iranian transport aircraft, including two 747s that carry most of the cargo to Syria. Iran ignores this sort of thing and keeps its aircraft away from places where they might be seized. The U.S. also accuses Iraq of allowing Iranian air truck traffic, which helps supply and reinforce the remaining troops in eastern Syria. Sunni rebels have taken control of most of eastern Syria, which has always been largely Sunni.

September 18, 2012: A Kilo class submarine went back into service, after being refurbished in Iran. Russia insists that refurbishment of its subs take place in Russia but Iran thought the cost was too high and that Russia might bow to Western pressure and not return the sub. Russia did not provide any technical assistance or components to the Iranians, so it's uncertain how adequate the work was. A locally built frigate was also launched.

September 17, 2012: Iran revealed that last month someone had used explosives to cut electricity supplies to a new underground nuclear facility. Iran continues to deny that it is developing nuclear weapons or allow UN inspectors access in order to confirm that. Most Iranians believe that their country is developing nuclear weapons and that is a great thing for Iran. Officially, Iran believes some of the UN inspectors are spies and saboteurs.

September 16, 2012: Government officials admitted that members of the Quds Force have been

operating in Syria. Quds is Iran's international terrorism support organization. The Quds Force supplies weapons to the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban as well as Islamic radicals in Somalia, Iraq, and elsewhere. Quds is believed to be advising Syrian forces on how to deal with the rebels, and occasionally helping with raids and interrogations. Iran is also bringing in some badly needed special weapons and equipment. Most of this is coming in by air.

The U.S. and 29 other nations began major military exercises in and around the Straits of Hormuz. This included major mine clearing operations and other exercises to ensure that all these nations could communicate and cooperate with each other if Iran tried to close the straits.

September 15, 2012: The Iranian government has increased the reward for killing British novelist Salman Rushdie by $500,000. The Iranian government first offered such a reward in 1989, because they felt a recent Rushdie novel was critical of Islam. The reward has been increased several times since then and now stands at $3.3 million. No one has ever made a serious attempt to collect the reward. The latest increase was prompted by a recent U.S. made (by a refugee from Egypt) movie many Islamic conservatives consider critical of Islam.