Russian Paratroopers to Get Drones by 2018 – Shamanov

Russian paratrooper divisions will receive unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs or drones) within the next three-to-five years, Colonel-General Vladimir Shamanov, Commander of Russia’s Airborne Forces, told journalists on Friday.

“UAV subdivisions already exist within the reconnaissance and special operations sections, in the artillery and the air-defense sections of the Airborne Forces. In line with accepted international practice, we intend to further develop the unmanned component of our forces,” Shamanov said.

He also said that it was the Defense Ministry’s decision to buy Israeli-produced drones that gave Russia the impetus to develop its own.

“Unfortunately, work to create our own UAVs immediately ran into lengthy delays. The Airborne Forces were, and will continue to provide a platform for experimentation in testing new forms of technology” Shamanov continued.

In January, Shamanov oversaw tests on a prototype Russian-made compact reconnaissance complex, named Seeker.

Seeker comprises a base station carried in a rucksack, a tablet computer showing images from the drones’ cameras which also serves as a control unit, and two T-4 unmanned aerial vehicles weighing 1.3 kilograms each.

With 40 minutes endurance, they produce their optimum picture at an altitude of 200 meters, but have a service ceiling of 4,000 meters. They have electric motors and a wingspan of 0.6 meters.

The approximate cost of the Seeker complex, with two drones, is about 3 million rubles, which at today’s exchange rates, works out at about $96,000.

The Day Of The Droids Is Fast Approaching

Senior Israeli Air Force leaders believe that unmanned aircraft are the future, including autonomous (at least some of the time, under software control) fighters and bombers. Israeli UAV (unmanned aerial vehicle) manufacturers, who have long been leaders in the field, were asked to move more aggressively in this direction. The Israelis are following the lead of the U.S. Navy, which is currently out front when it comes to UCAV (unmanned combat air vehicle) development.

 

For example, in late 2012 a U.S. Navy X-47B UCAV made its first catapult launch. This came 22 months after the first flight of the X-47B. This launch was not from a carrier but an airfield built to the same size as a carrier deck and equipped with a catapult. This first launch was to confirm that the X-47B could handle the stress of a catapult launch. Another X-47B was then loaded onto the deck of a carrier, to check out the ability of the UCAV to move around the deck. The first carrier launch of an X-47B will take place this year, along with carrier landings. Two years ago the navy tested its UCAV landing software, using a manned F-18 for the test, landing it on a carrier completely under software control. Recently an X-47B successfully made a landing on an airfield built to the same size as a carrier deck and equipped with a wire for the hook on the rear of UCAV to catch on. That worked, and the X-47B came to stop as it would during a landing at sea.

 

It was five years ago that the navy rolled out the first X-47B, its first UCAV. This compact aircraft has a wingspan of 20 meters (62 feet and the outer 25 percent folds up to save space on the carrier). It carries a two ton payload and will be able to stay in the air for twelve hours. The U.S. is far ahead of other nations in UCAV development, and this is energizing activity in Israel, Russia, Europe, and China to develop similar aircraft. It’s generally recognized that robotic combat aircraft are the future, even though many of the aviation commanders (all of them pilots) wish it were otherwise. The Israeli Air Force is an exception to this and all major air forces have a growing number of senior officers who accept that the day of the droids is fast approaching. Whoever gets there first (a UCAV that really works) will force everyone else to catch up or end up the loser if they encounter these UCAVs in combat.

 

The U.S. Navy has done the math and realized that they need UCAVS on their carriers as soon as possible. The current plan is to get these aircraft into service five years from now. But many carrier admirals want unmanned carrier aircraft in service sooner than that. The math problem that triggered all this is the realization that American carriers had to get within 800 kilometers of their target before launching bomber aircraft. Potential enemies increasingly have aircraft and missiles with range greater than 800 kilometers. The navy already has a solution in development since the X-47B UCAS has a range of 2,500 kilometers and all they have to do is get these UCAVs operational. 

 

For the last two years navy leadership has been seeking ways to reduce orders for the new F-35B and F-35C manned aircraft and use that money to buy the X-47Bs and similar robotic combat aircraft instead. The navy currently plans to buy 680 F-35B and F-35C aircraft for (on average) $100 million each. A UCAV costs less than half that and provides most of the same capabilities, plus much longer range and no risk of losing pilots.

 

For most of the last decade, the navy has been hustling to ready a UCAV for carrier operations and combat use. Within three years the navy expects to have the X-47B demonstrating the ability to regularly operate from a carrier and perform combat (including reconnaissance and surveillance) operations. The new efforts aim to have UCAVs aircraft perform ground attack missions as well, something the Predators have been doing for over a decade. The larger Reaper UAV was designed to expand this combat capability and has proved that it can replace F-16s and other bombers in the combat zone.

 

The 20 ton X-47B weighs a little less than the 24 ton F-18A and has two internal bays holding two tons of smart bombs. Once it can operate off a carrier, the X-47B will be used for a lot of bombing, sort of a super-Reaper. The navy has been impressed with the success of the Predator and Reaper. But the Reaper weighs only 4.7 tons. The much larger X-47B uses a F100-PW-220 engine, which is currently used in the F-16 and F-15.

 

The air force and navy have always differed about the widespread use of UAVs in combat. When the air force agreed to work with the navy on UCAVs a decade ago the idea was that the air force ones would largely remain in storage, to provide a rapid "surge" capability in wartime. The navy, however, wanted to use theirs to replace manned aircraft on carriers. The reason is simple, carrier ops are dangerous, and carrier qualified pilots are more difficult and expensive to train and retain in the service. The navy still has these problems and senior admirals are pretty much in agreement that UCAVs are the future of carrier aviation. The sooner these UCAVs prove they can safely and effectively operate from carriers, the better. The X-47B (or planned, slightly larger, X-47C) is not the definitive carrier UCAS but the navy hopes it is good enough to show that unmanned aircraft can do the job. Normally, "X" class aircraft are just used as technology demonstrators. But the X-47 program has been going on for so long, and has incorporated so much from UAVs already serving in combat, that the X-47B may end up eventually running recon and bombing missions as the MQ-47B.

 

The Department of Defense leadership is backing the navy efforts and spurring the air force to catch up. At the moment, the air force has a hard time building enough MQ-9s, which are used as a ground support aircraft, in addition to reconnaissance and surveillance. But, as the navy is demonstrating, you can build UCAVs that can carry more weapons, stay in the air longer, and hustle to where they are needed faster.

Yemen - Al Qaeda Dies Hard

The American UAV campaign against al Qaeda in Yemen is crippling the terrorist organization there. The UAVs are a much more effective way to find and attack terrorists hiding out in rural areas among pro-terrorist tribesmen. Going in with ground troops is much bloodier, especially in terms of civilian casualties. The UAVs and more powerful intelligence collection and analysis software make it possible to find the terrorists quickly and accurately. Terrorists have been unsuccessful at defending against these UAV tactics. The best defense al Qaeda has going for it is media ignorance of how the UAV tactics work which has led to some special interest groups pressuring media and politicians to outlaw the use of UAVs like this because they interpret it as a war crime. This requires ignoring the deadlier alternatives and most editors and politicians realize this and don’t bite. But some, out of ignorance or the need for some media attention, go for it.

 

There were 53 of these UAV attacks in Yemen last year, compared to 18 the year before. The increase last year was mainly in response to a major al Qaeda offensive that sought to take over most of the towns in the south. This exposed a lot more al Qaeda men to detection and UAV missile attack. The al Qaeda offensive was defeated and the surviving terrorists scattered back to their rural hideouts. While some al Qaeda men have fled to other terrorist battle zones (Somalia, Pakistan, Africa) or sought refuge in Europe, hundreds have stayed in Yemen. Most of these are from Yemen or other countries in the Arabian Peninsula. They feel they have nowhere to go and are prepared to go down fighting. Most Yemenis are willing to accommodate them. 

 

So far this year over 30,000 Africans have been smuggled across the Gulf of Aden and entered Yemen. Last year at least 107,000 Africans arrived that way. This was a record, the last one being in 2011 (103,000). Drought in northeast Africa, and chronic poverty and lack of economic opportunity has driven more people to leave and the Yemeni and Somali smugglers have been very busy. There are believed to be more smugglers now because many who had switched to piracy are back because the counter-piracy effort has made piracy much less profitable. Most of the people smuggled into Yemen want to keep moving to find work in the wealthy Arab Gulf states, Israel or Europe. In the last seven years about half a million Africans have made the journey and Yemeni refugee camps hold about 200,000 of these foreigners who did not move on for one reason or another. The main reason these Africans remain in Yemen is because of the growing efforts by Saudi and Yemeni border guards to prevent smugglers from getting the illegal migrants across the border. While some seek work in Saudi Arabia, many keep going for Israel or Europe. 

 

April 30, 2013:  A pipeline near the Red Sea was bombed again, halting flow of oil and much needed income for the government. Normally Yemen produces 270,000 barrels of oil a day and most of it is exported (accounting, with natural gas, 90 percent of export income). The 320 kilometer long pipeline extends from oil fields in Marib province to the Red Sea export terminal. Such attacks cost the government a billion dollars in lost revenue last year. Tribesmen loyal to deposed president Saleh were blamed. The army has been going after the tribal factions believed responsible and the last attack was on April 8^th. 

 

In the south (Shabwa province) soldiers discovered and disarmed a bomb placed next to a natural gas pipeline. The gas goes to a liquid natural gas facility on the coast where it is exported. 

 

April 29, 2013: In the east (Marib province) tribesmen loyal to deposed president Saleh  damaged the long distance power lines and blacked out most of the province. 

 

April 28, 2013: In the southeast (Hadramout province) an al Qaeda death squad killed another military intelligence officer. This campaign against intelligence personnel has been going on for over a year because al Qaeda sees the Yemeni intelligence efforts as a major source of information on where al Qaeda personnel are. This, they believe, enables the American UAVs to strike.

April 27, 2013: Outside the capital al Qaeda gunmen attacked a checkpoint killing five soldiers while losing two of their own. Elsewhere in the south (Aden) over 100,000 separatist tribesmen commemorated the 1994 civil war in which the southern tribes tried to split the country in two. The south failed that time but wants a rematch. 

 

April 21, 2013: East of the capital an American UAV fired missiles at a group of al Qaeda men, killing two and wounding three. This is the third such attack in the last week. Al Qaeda retaliated by attacking a checkpoint, killing two soldiers while losing one of their own. 

 

April 20, 2013: In the south (Abyan province) rival tribesmen clashed leaving two pro-government and three anti-government tribesmen dead. Elsewhere in the south (Mukalla) an al Qaeda death squad killed another military intelligence officer.

 

April 18, 2013: In a symbolic move, anti-Saleh demonstrators who had been camped out in the capital for two years took down their tents and left, thus marking an end to the Arab Spring uprising in Yemen. It isn’t really over, as the new government is nearly as corrupt and ineffective as the decades old Saleh rule they replaced. The Yemen Arab Spring demonstrations began in February 2011 and by the end of the year Saleh agreed to go. But then separatist tribes in the south, in conjunction with their al Qaeda allies, tried to take control of the south and establish a separate country. Most of last year was spent putting down that rebellion. 

 

April 17, 2013: In the south (Thamar province) Yemeni warplanes attacked a group of al Qaeda and killed five of them. Outside the capital a U.S. UAV missile attack killed a wanted al Qaeda leader and four of his followers. In the south, tribal elders are trying to negotiate with local al Qaeda bands to get the terrorists to stop attacking repair crews trying to restore electrical power to villages where members of the tribe live.

UAVs Hauling Cargo Into The Future

Israel, noting the successful use of helicopter UAVs for supplying troops in Afghanistan, has revealed a similar, but more advanced, cargo UAV. Called Flying Elephant, the helicopter-type vehicle is to carry a ton of cargo. It’s actually a novel design and the manufacturer admits that it will be another five years before the prototype is turned into a combat-ready vehicle. Announcing Flying Elephant now let’s potential export customers know there is competition for U.S. cargo UAVs on the way. If there isn’t enough interest then Flying Elephant will be quietly put to sleep.

It was Israel that invented the modern military UAV. The U.S. began buying these Israeli UAVs in the 1990s, and American firms began utilizing the design concepts created in Israel. This gave rise to the Predator UAV and many other battlefield UAVs, including the K-Max cargo UAV.

For a year now the U.S. Marine Corps has been using two K-Max UAV helicopters in Afghanistan. These two UAVs will stay until March, 2013, and may stay until the end of 2013. This is all because the two unmanned transport helicopters have proven very useful. The marines have been testing the K-Max in Afghanistan since late 2011. Last December the K-Max made its first cargo flight, taking 90 minutes to deliver 1.5 tons of supplies to a distant outpost. Since then the K-Max has flown over 500 sorties, each over an hour in duration and while carrying over a ton of cargo to remote marine bases in Afghanistan.

The marines began looking for a cargo carrying helicopter UAV in 2009, and quickly determined that K-Max was the best candidate for further development and testing. The two K-Max UAVs in Afghanistan are there as a final test of how useful the vehicle could be in a combat zone. An unmanned cargo helicopter risks fewer lives and is cheaper to operate. It can also be used in extremely hazardous missions.

The K-Max UAV was originally designed as a single seat helicopter that could carry sling loads of 2.8 tons (6,000 pounds) at sea level, or two tons (4,300 pounds) at 4,800 meters (15,000 feet). The 5.5 ton K-Max has a cruise speed of 185 kilometers an hour and can stay in the air for up to 2.6 hours per sortie. One of the most attractive features of the K-Max is the amount of automation in the aircraft. The flight control software can be programmed with where to take and drop a cargo, then return and land automatically. The operator can intervene at any time but most of the time the operator just monitors vidcams attached to the K-Max to ensure nothing goes wrong. 

In 2010, the U.S. Army conducted tests using a K-Max to deliver supplies via parachute. This involved using the army low altitude parachute, which can drop loads of 36 kg (80 pounds) to 273 kg (600 pounds). The K-Max had a special rig that could carry and release four different payloads and demonstrated its ability to drop each one at a different location. The low altitude drops are more accurate than higher altitude ones and useful where the troops getting the stuff are on hilly ground that has few good helicopter landing zones. The army is also testing K-Max dropping loads from higher altitudes, using GPS guided parachutes. The army and marines are planning to have their helicopter UAVs drop supplies via parachute to troops in isolated areas. This sort of technology could be used by the Israeli Flying Elephant, if there proves to be a large enough market for another transport UAV.

A dangerous new world of drones

A model of China's "Dark Sword" UAV. According to Jane's Defense & Security Intelligence & Analysis, the drone remains only a model, but offers an example of where China may go with its drone technology.

A decade ago, the United States had a virtual monopoly on drones.

Not anymore. According to data compiled by the New America Foundation, more than 70 countries now own some type of drone, though just a small number of those nations possess armed drone aircraft.

The explosion in drone technology promises to change the way nations conduct war and threatens to begin a new arms race as governments scramble to counterbalance their adversaries.

Late last month, China announced that it would use surveillance drones to monitor a group of uninhabited islands in the South China Sea that are controlled by Japan but claimed by China and Taiwan.

In August 2010, Iran unveiled what it claimed was its first armed drone. And on Tuesday, the country's military chief, Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, disclosed details of a new long-range drone that he said can fly 2,000 kilometers (1,250 miles), which puts Tel Aviv easily in range.

Study: Drone strikes kill, maim and traumatize too many civilians

But without an international framework governing the use of drone attacks, the United States is setting a dangerous precedent for other nations with its aggressive and secretive drone programs in Pakistan and Yemen, which are aimed at suspected members of al Qaeda and their allies.

There has been virtually no substantive public discussion about drone attacks among policymakers at the international level.

Just as the U.S. government justifies its drone strikes with the argument that it is at war with al Qaeda and its affiliates, one could imagine that India in the not too distant future might launch such attacks against suspected terrorists in Kashmir, or China might strike Uighur separatists in western China, or Iran might attack Baluchi nationalists along its border with Pakistan.

This moment may almost be here. China took the United States by surprise in November 2010 at the Zhuhai Air Show, where it unveiled 25 drone models, some of which were outfitted with the capability to fire missiles.

It remains unclear just how many of China's drones are operational and how many of them are still in development, but China is intent on catching up with the United States' rapidly expanding drone arsenal.

When President George W. Bush declared a "War on Terror" 11 years ago, the Pentagon had fewer than 50 drones.

Now, it has around 7,500.

As Bush embarked on that war, the United States had never used armed drones in combat. The first U.S. armed drone attack, which appears to be the first such strike ever, took place in mid-November 2001 and killed the military commander of al Qaeda, Mohammed Atef, in Afghanistan.

Since then, the CIA has used drones equipped with bombs and missiles hundreds of times to target suspected militants in Pakistan and Yemen.

Only the United States, United Kingdom and Israel are known to have launched drone strikes against their adversaries, although other members of the International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan, such as Australia, have "borrowed" drones from Israel for use in the war there.

Drone technology is proliferating rapidly. A 2011 study estimated that there were around 680 active drone development programs run by governments, companies and research institutes around the world, compared with just 195 in 2005.

In 2010, U.S.-based General Atomics received export licenses to sell unarmed versions of the Predator drone to Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Morocco and the United Arab Emirates. And in March, the U.S. government agreed to arm Italy's six Reaper drones but rejected a request from Turkey to purchase armed Predator drones.

An official in Turkey's Defense Ministry said in July that Turkey planned to arm its own domestically produced drone, the Anka.

Israel is the world's largest exporter of drones and drone technology, and the state-owned Israeli Aerospace Industries has sold to countries as varied as Nigeria, Russia and Mexico.

Building drones, particularly armed drones, takes sophisticated technology and specific weaponry, but governments are increasingly willing to invest the necessary time and money to either buy or develop them, as armed drones are increasingly seen as an integral part of modern warfare.

Sweden, Greece, Switzerland, Spain, Italy and France are working on a joint project through state-owned aeronautical companies and are in the final stages of developing an advanced armed drone prototype called the Dassault nEURon, from which the France plans to derive armed drones for its air force.

And Pakistani authorities have long tried to persuade the United States to give them armed Predator drones, while India owns an armed Israeli drone designed to detect and destroy enemy radar, though it does not yet have drones capable of striking other targets.

The Teal Group, a defense consulting firm in Virginia, estimated in June that the global market for the research, development and procurement of armed drones will just about double in the next decade, from $6.6 billion to $11.4 billion.

News: Drones expected to hunt for suspects in Libya attack

States are not alone in their quest for drones. Insurgent groups, too, are moving to acquire this technology. Last year, Libyan opposition forces trying to overthrow the dictator Moammar Gadhafi bought a sophisticated surveillance drone from a Canadian company for which they paid in the low six figures.

You can even buy your own tiny drone on Amazon for $250. (And for an extra $3.99, you can get next-day shipping.)

As drone technology becomes more widely accessible, it is only a matter of time before well-financed drug cartels acquire them. And you can imagine a day in the not too distant future where armed drones are used to settle personal vendettas.

Given the relatively low costs of drones -- already far cheaper than the costs of a fighter jet and of training a fighter jet pilot -- armed drones will play a key role in future conflicts.

Opinion: When are drone killings illegal?

While the drone industry thrives and more companies, research institutes and nations jump on board the drone bandwagon, the United States is setting a powerful international norm about the use of armed drones, which it uses for pre-emptive attacks against presumed terrorists in Pakistan and Yemen. It is these kinds of drone strikes that are controversial; the use of drones in a conventional war is not much different than a manned aircraft that drops bombs or fires missiles.

According to figures compiled by the New America Foundation, drone attacks aimed at suspected militants are estimated to have killed between 1,900 and 3,200 people in Pakistan over the past eight years.

While there has been considerable discussion of the legality of such strikes in a number of U.S. law schools, there has been almost no substantive public discussion about drone attacks among policymakers at the international level.

The time has come for some kind of international convention on the legal framework surrounding the uses of such weapons, which promise to shape the warfare of the future as much as tanks and bombers did during the 20th century.

Air Weapons - The Smart Bomb Orphan

The American GBU-44 Viper Strike smart bomb has been modified to hit fast moving vehicles and was recently successful in eight out of eight tests. The manufacturer hopes that this new capability will lead to more sales. There have not been many sales so far. Viper Strike began development during the 1980s but never entered service because the Cold War ended along with the need for many weapons designed to deal with thousands of Russian tanks advancing into Western Europe. A decade ago Viper Strike showed up, as a compact, lightweight precision glide bomb. Still not a lot of sales.

Five years ago a U.S. Army UAV first used a Viper Strike in combat. Three years ago a GPS guided version of the Viper Strike was introduced. SOCOM spent over $20 million on making Viper Strike work on their AC-130 gunships, in place of the 105mm cannon. But this didn’t work out, yet, even though the use of Viper Strike would allow the AC-130 to fly higher (than required for the 105mm weapon to be used) and be safer from ground fire. Technically, Viper Strike is still "under consideration" for the AC-130.

Meanwhile, because the MQ-5A is the only aircraft using the Viper Strike, there is not enough demand to put the Viper Strike into mass production. Worse, the MQ-5A Hunter will soon be replaced by a larger Warrior UAV that can carry heavier Hellfire missiles. But the GPS version of Viper Strike is supposed to make this weapon even more useful, and popular, and maybe that will lead to wider adoption.

Viper Strike is a 92 cm (36 inch) long unpowered glider. The 130mm diameter (with the wings folded) weapon weighs 20 kg (44 pounds). Because the Viper Strike can come straight down, it is better suited for urban warfare. Its warhead weighs only 1.8 kg (four pounds), and less than half of that is explosives. This means less damage to nearby civilians, but still powerful and accurate enough to destroy its target. A laser designator makes the Viper Strike accurate enough to hit an automobile, or a foxhole. However, people on the ground tend to prefer the faster (rocket propelled), larger (48 kg, with a 9 kg warhead) Hellfire missile. And then there are even lighter competitors coming along, like the 11.4 kg, 70mm laser guided rocket with a 2.1 kg warhead.

The first test of Viper Strike, launched from a UAV, took place eight years ago. The delays, in getting this weapon in the hands of the troops, were caused largely by disagreements over technical and organizational issues. Not an uncommon event, although in wartime it's often possible to cut through the crap. Part of that dispute is with the U.S. Air Force. For over half a century, the army and air force have abided by the "Treaty of Key West," an agreement president Eisenhower forced them to hammer out. The terms gave the air force a monopoly on fixed wing warplanes, and allows the army to only operate small, two engine, fixed wing transports. However, the army can have all the helicopters it can get. UAVs were not covered in the Key West agreement, although UAVs existed in the 1950s. But armed UAVs were still only a distant possibility back then. Now the air force wants to extend its fixed wing monopoly to include armed UAVs. The army did not agree, and the Pentagon agreed to revise the Key West treaty, and allow the army to continue rebuilding the new Army Air Force with larger (20 kg) UAVs.