10 Conflicts to Watch in 2016

From Syria to the South China Sea, the conflicts and crises the world will face in the coming year.

Pulling together a list of the wars most in need of international attention and support in 2016 is challenging for all the wrong reasons. For 20 years after the end of the Cold War, deadly conflict was in decline. Fewer wars were killing fewer people the world over. Five years ago, however, that positive trend went into reverse, and each year since has seen more conflict, more victims, and more people displaced. 2016 is unlikely to bring an improvement from the woes of 2015: It is war — not peace — that has momentum.

That said, there are conflicts whose urgency and importance rise above. This year’s list of 10 is weighted toward wars with the worst humanitarian consequences: Syria and Iraq, South Sudan, Afghanistan, Yemen, and the Lake Chad basin. It includes those in influential and functioning states, like Turkey, as well as those that have collapsed, like Libya. It features conflicts that are already bad but are poised to get much worse without intelligent intervention, such as Burundi, as well as tensions, such as those in the South China Sea, that are simmering but have yet to boil over. The list also considers the hopeful example presented by Colombia, where considerable progress is being made toward ending a 51-year insurgency.

Half of the conflicts on this year’s list involve extremist groups whose goals and ideologies are difficult to accommodate through negotiated settlement, complicating efforts to plot a path to peace. Looking ahead to 2016, it’s time to dispense with the notion that fighting against violent extremism suffices as a plan for world order — or even the basis of a solution for a single country like Syria. To be sure, stopping the abominations of the Islamic State and other jihadis is vital, but it also exposes policy dilemmas: The fear of what follows the demise of authoritarians (Iraq and Libya being prime exhibits) creates a strong incentive to back repressive regimes, but order based solely on state coercion is not sustainable. The dramatic increase in the reach and influence of jihadis over the past few years is a symptom of deeper trends in the Middle East: mounting sectarianism, a crisis of legitimacy of existing states, and escalating geopolitical competition, particularly between Saudi Arabia and Iran. When the enemy comes from within a given region, military action directed from abroad is more likely to aggravate than assuage.

There is an alternative to this approach: States could work pragmatically at managing differences rather than overcoming them while leaving political space open for local actors to speak up. This will require courage, patience, and creative diplomacy, but the two most important diplomatic successes of 2015 — the Iran nuclear deal and the agreement on climate change — give reason to believe an international approach based on finding common interests could work. There are other glimmers of hope, too: major strides forward in Colombia’s peace talks, a cease-fire in Ukraine bolstered by the Minsk process, progress in Myanmar’s democratic transition, and a welcome, if long overdue, resolution from the U.N. Security Council on Syria.

Most of the conflicts listed here require action at several levels — between major powers, regionally and locally — and none are amenable to a quick fix. Given the challenges of ending conflicts amid the upheaval of a revolutionary era, it is all the more urgent to provide humanitarian aid and to mitigate the human toll of violence — evidenced starkly in the hundreds of thousands of refugees who have fled toward Europe in the past year. States must also redouble efforts to forge political agreements, taking advantage of even the narrowest openings to find opportunities for compromise. The fluidity of the present moment can and must be used to shape a new, better-balanced order.

Syria and Iraq

At the close of the year, the war in Syria is the world’s gravest, with its effects stretching across the region and sucking in major powers. More than a quarter of a million Syrians have been killed and almost 11 million — about half the country’s population — displaced in or outside the country. The rise of the Islamic State, which now controls a large swath of eastern Syria and northwest Iraq, has drawn in firepower from countries including the United States, France, the United Kingdom, and Russia. As yet, however, none of these countries has articulated a coherent strategy to defeat the Islamic State.

Worse still, Moscow and Western powers have been working at cross-purposes, with Russian jets bombing anti-Islamic State rebels that Washington considers partners against the jihadi group. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime continues to use indiscriminate aerial bombardment and other methods of collective punishment, inflicting civilian casualties in Sunni-majority areas that dwarf the numbers of victims claimed by the Islamic State’s violence. Assad’s tactics fuel continued cycles of radicalization, in Syria in particular, but also across the region, by fanning sectarian flames and feeding the sense of Sunni victimization from which the Islamic State profits.

The pace of diplomatic action has quickened, spurred in part by Russia’s military intervention in Syria in September and the Islamic State-sponsored terrorist attacks in Paris in November. While the growing internationalization of the conflict presents many dangers, it may also open possibilities for diplomacy. In December, the U.N. Security Council unanimously adopted a resolution calling for a cease-fire and political solution in Syria. The resolution sets forth an ambitious timetable, with talks between the government and the opposition to start in January; a Syrian-led political process to establish “credible, inclusive and non-sectarian governance” within six months; and elections within a year-and-a-half. Questions about Assad’s future — which provoke the most vehement disagreement between major powers on the Security Council, rival regional powers, and Syrian factions — remain unaddressed.

Despite many reasons to be skeptical, it is worth hoping that this latest initiative marks the beginning of a meaningful effort to resolve the conflict. A conference in Riyadh in December exceeded expectations by bringing together an unprecedented range of the opposition’s armed and political factions to agree on a negotiating team. Participants pledged their commitment to a pluralistic Syrian future and conditional willingness to engage in the peace process. For a national cease-fire to work, however, there must be a strategy for dealing with spoilers — especially al Qaeda affiliate al-Nusra Front, which is geographically, and often operationally, integrated into the non-jihadi opposition in much of western Syria.

In Iraq, meanwhile, the Western strategy to defeat the Islamic State relies largely on military offensives by Iraqi Kurds, a mostly Shiite Iraqi army, and Iran-backed Shiite militias. This risks feeding the resentment of Sunni Arabs in areas currently under Islamic State control. Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi’s government is under pressure from rival Shiite factions for a host of reasons — including anger over corruption, the state’s failure to provide basic services and security, resistance to his reform agenda, and intramural jockeying for power. Shiite militias are not only fighting the Islamic State, but have organized to fill the security vacuum and defend Baghdad and Shiite holy sites. The militias’ partial success resonates with many unemployed youth, who have been at the forefront of street protests. The Islamic State rules partly through brutal coercion but also by exploiting fear of the Shiite-dominated government and by empowering formerly marginalized segments within the Sunni community. Iraqi forces have spent months trying to retake Ramadi, the capital of Anbar province, after a humiliating withdrawal last May, and in the last week of the year managed to finally gain control of the city. The next priority will be to oust the Islamic State from Mosul, the northern city where it is perhaps best entrenched.

Turkey

Recent photographs from the southeastern city of Diyarbakir show young militants with assault rifles manning sandbagged roadblocks and engaging in bloody urban battles. Such images capture a dangerous escalation in Turkey’s long conflict with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a confrontation that has killed more than 30,000 people since 1984. Many factors have fueled the sharp upsurge in violence following the end of peace talks last spring and the collapse of the cease-fire in July. Turkey’s Kurdish movement backs the PKK’s Syrian affiliate, the PYD, which has made gains in fighting against the Islamic State. Ankara worries that cross-border Kurdish solidarity will further strengthen demands for a separate state. This perceived threat has weakened Turkey’s focus on the fight against the Islamic State, leading many Turkish Kurds to conclude that Ankara supports the terrorist group that is ostensibly their common enemy.

Over the past six months, the conflict has escalated to its most violent point in two decades. Both sides know that there is no military solution; however, each wants to weaken the other as much as possible while waiting for the Syria quagmire to settle. To prevent the Middle East’s ethno-sectarian violence from spilling further into Turkey, both sides should urgently end violence, agree on cease-fire conditions, and restart peace talks. Free from electoral pressures for four years, the new Justice and Development Party (AKP) government should formulate a concrete reform agenda to address demands for Kurdish rights — including decentralization and mother-tongue education — that can be advanced within a democratic framework.

Yemen

The Saudi-led war in Yemen — backed by the United States, Britain, and allies in the Gulf — has been grinding on since March 2015, with no end in sight. U.N.-sponsored peace talks in Switzerland in mid-December yielded only an agreement to resume negotiations on Jan. 14. Nearly 6,000 people have reportedly been killed, almost half of them civilians. More than 2 million people have been uprooted from their homes; an additional 120,000 have fled the country. The war has destroyed the country’s already weak infrastructure, deepened political divides, and introduced a narrative of sectarianism where previously there had been little or none. The conflict threatens the security of the Arabian Peninsula, particularly Saudi Arabia itself, by feeding the growth of terrorist networks like al Qaeda and the Islamic State.

The violence has its roots in a botched political transition following the departure of longtime President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who was forced out amid protests in 2011. After years of indecision about the country’s political future, Houthi militias took matters into their own hands and captured the capital, Sanaa, in September 2014. The Houthis — a predominantly Zaydi Shiite movement rooted in the north — began moving south in alliance with forces loyal to Saleh. On March 25, 2015, they seized a strategic military base near Aden and held the defense minister hostage. The next day, Saudi Arabia launched a major military campaign — Operation Decisive Storm — to roll back the Houthi advance and restore the government of President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi. The Houthis bear much of the responsibility for triggering the war, but the Saudi-led campaign has only escalated the violence and thus far proved largely counterproductive.

Saudi Arabia sees the Houthis as proxies for Iran. While Iran’s role has been minimal, Tehran has not hesitated to make political hay of Houthi successes, thereby further raising the stakes in a volatile region. The perception that it is meddling has alarmed Saudi Arabia, which sees Iran as ascendant and having hegemonic ambitions. A peaceful solution to the Yemen war may well require a prior accommodation between these two regional superpowers, currently a remote possibility.

Libya

The Islamic State’s apparent consolidation of its base around Sirte, on Libya’s Mediterranean coast, has brought fresh urgency to international efforts to end a political crisis that has left the country in a shambles.

Following NATO’s military intervention and the ouster of longtime dictator Muammar al-Qaddafi in 2011, assorted political parties, tribes, and militias have been fighting for power and control over the nation’s vast oil and gas riches. Since mid-2014, the country has been governed by two rival factions — another way of saying that no one is really in charge. A U.N.-brokered deal to form a national unity government emerged in December, thanks to heavy lifting from the United States and Italy.

Members of both factions signed up, but many powerful constituents still oppose the deal. The unity government may not be able to govern much, especially if opponents prevent it from taking a seat in Tripoli.

Meanwhile, lawlessness continues to take a heavy toll. Thousands of detainees languish in prisons without proper judicial review while kidnappings and targeted killings are rampant. Libya is also a major transit hub for refugees and migrants trying to reach Europe from other parts of the Middle East and Africa. The unchecked flow of arms and fighters through Libya has fueled conflicts across the Sahel, including in Mali and the Lake Chad basin (see below). Western intelligence officials say that the impoverished Fezzan region in the south is swiftly becoming a haven for criminal networks and radical groups. On top of all this, economic collapse looms on the horizon unless oil production increases and officials act to maintain the integrity of Libya’s core financial institutions, which the two rival administrations have been squabbling over.

The first task for the new Libyan government, and its international partners, must be to bring aboard those Libyans who currently oppose it. At best, the recently signed agreement should be seen as a beginning, not an end, to the peace process.

Lake Chad basin

Nigeria, Niger, Chad, and Cameroon face an evolving threat from the jihadi militant group Boko Haram. Over the past six years, the group has transformed itself from a small protest movement in northern Nigeria to a powerful force capable of mounting devastating attacks across the Lake Chad basin. Last March, it pledged allegiance to the Islamic State — an affiliation that appears to have had little impact beyond improving Boko Haram’s online presence.

This past summer, Cameroon experienced the greatest increase in attacks by Boko Haram, followed closely by Niger and Chad. Nigeria, however, remains the epicenter of the conflict. Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari, who took office in May, ambitiously pledged to end the insurgency by December. While this remains a distant goal, Buhari — a former army major general — has shaken up his country’s security establishment and joined with regional forces to drive Boko Haram from the areas in northeastern Nigeria it had seized earlier in 2015.

Boko Haram is, however, resilient, adaptable, and mobile. Military efforts, to date, have had limited success in countering its use of suicide bombers, who are often young women and girls. Its terrorist attacks on remote and unprotected villages — and even on regional capitals, like N’Djamena — continue. Indiscriminate responses by state security forces and insufficient efforts to win over the affected communities only pour fuel on the fire. Regional governments are still failing to address the factors behind radicalization. Decades of political corruption, festering grievances, and poor access to basic social services have bred deep anger and alienation. These issues are compounded by rapid population growth and environmental degradation, which drive social tension and migration.

South Sudan

Yet again, the world’s newest country is at risk of descending into full-blown civil war. The peace agreement reached between the government and the largest armed opposition group in August after intensive African-led mediation is on the brink of collapse. Meanwhile, independent armed groups outside the deal are proliferating.

The roots of the conflict date back to internecine competition among various factions during South Sudan’s decades-long independence struggle. South Sudan won independence from Sudan, only to explode into civil war on Dec. 15, 2013, as divisions within the ruling Sudan People’s Liberation Movement led to fighting and targeted ethnic killings in the capital of Juba. Only hours after the conflict erupted, tens of thousands of people sought refuge at U.N. bases to escape ethnic massacres and sexual violence. Today, nearly 200,000 people live under the direct protection of U.N. peacekeepers.

Over the past two years, more than 2.4 million people have been displaced, and tens of thousands have been killed. A report released by the African Union in October detailed atrocities by both sides, including mass killings and rapes. Now, with an increasing number of the country’s more than 24 armed groups aligned with neither the government nor the main opposition forces, the prospect of a multipolar war is real. Regional actors, especially members of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), which mediated the peace agreement, and international powers, including IGAD partners China, Norway, the United States, and the United Kingdom, must take urgent, united action to push South Sudan’s leaders to respect their commitments to the peace deal and avert a catastrophic return to war.

Burundi

Almost daily, dead bodies appear on the streets of Bujumbura, with the circumstances surrounding their deaths often unknown. More than 300 people have been killed since last April, when President Pierre Nkurunziza announced plans to seek a third term in office despite widespread opposition. Nkurunziza’s re-election in July, following a failed coup attempt, sparked a season of confrontation between government forces and armed opposition fighters. Escalating violence raises fears of a return to conflict after a decade of relative peace. At least 300,000 people died during Burundi’s 12-year civil war, which ended in 2005 after dogged peace-building efforts led by former Presidents Julius Nyerere of Tanzania and Nelson Mandela of South Africa.

In December, the African Union Peace and Security Council took the bold step of authorizing an African Prevention and Protection Mission in Burundi to halt the slide toward civil war and mass atrocities. Nkurunziza reacted angrily and said Burundians would “stand up and fight” against foreign troops. The African Union has reached out to the government and is calling on both sides to cooperate with peace talks, with the next round scheduled for Jan. 6. It is not clear if the African Union has sufficient member support to impose a mission against the will of the Burundian government.

The humanitarian situation is dire. More than 200,000 people have fled the country, and U.N. officials have warned that without immediate action there is a risk of “catastrophic violence.” So far, the crisis is more political than ethnic. However, some leaders appear to be exploiting ethnic divisions, and there is a risk of mass atrocities if violence continues unchecked. It also threatens to further destabilize the fragile Great Lakes region, with increasing numbers of refugees fleeing to Rwanda, Tanzania, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Afghanistan

U.S. President Barack Obama’s endgame in Afghanistan seems ever more remote, as the country remains mired in conflict more than 14 years after the United States intervened to oust the Taliban and destroy al Qaeda. Today, the Taliban, despite internal splits, are still a formidable force; al Qaeda maintains a presence, and the Islamic State has established a foothold. A short-lived breakthrough in Pakistan-brokered peace talks last July was scuttled after opponents of the talks disclosed that the Taliban’s reclusive leader, Mullah Mohammed Omar, had died in 2013. The Taliban eventually confirmed these reports and announced that longtime deputy Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansour had taken over. Mullah Mansour, who reportedly has close ties to Pakistan’s intelligence services, consolidated his leadership position with a string of military victories, including the temporary capture of Kunduz in late September. Yet factionalism continues to bedevil the Taliban movement. Unconfirmed reports surfaced in early December indicating that Mullah Mansour may have been injured or killed in a firefight with rivals in Pakistan. A handful of field commanders throughout the year declared allegiance to the Islamic State.

Fighting across multiple provinces continues to inflict heavy civilian casualties — one reason that Afghanistan is second only to Syria as a leading source of refugees. Rampant corruption and abuse of power by local authorities continue to be the chief drivers of support for the insurgency. The United States now says that it will maintain troop levels at 9,800 for most of 2016, and NATO’s Resolute Support Mission is committed to providing financial support for Afghan security forces until 2020. But given the potency of the insurgency, there is clearly no military solution to the conflict. And the splintering and proliferation of militant groups threaten future efforts to broker peace. President Ashraf Ghani’s attempts to resume negotiations with the Taliban are controversial and strain the cohesion of his national unity government. For talks to succeed, they must be broadly Afghan-led and owned, and driven more by the interests of the Afghan people than by those of powerful external players like Pakistan and the United States.

South China Sea

The South China Sea risks becoming a theater of big-power competition, as the United States challenges China’s large-scale land reclamation and construction on several disputed reefs. China’s aggressive assertion of its territorial claims sets it on a collision course with several Southeast Asian nations with competing sovereignty claims in one of the world’s busiest waterways, an area rich with fisheries and possible oil and gas reserves. Tensions flared in May, when a U.S. spy plane flew near Fiery Cross Reef in the Spratly archipelago, where China is building an airfield. U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter called for an immediate and lasting halt to land reclamation in the disputed area and announced that the United States “will fly, sail, and operate wherever international law allows.” In October, a U.S. Navy warship approached another disputed reef in the Spratlys, prompting a sharp rebuke from Beijing that the action was illegal and posed a threat to its national security. In November, Obama announced an aid package worth $259 million over two years to boost the maritime security of Vietnam, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Malaysia, all rival claimants to China.

In what could prove a landmark case, a tribunal in The Hague is considering an arbitration request filed by the Philippines accusing China of violating international law in the South China Sea. Beijing refuses to participate or accept the court’s jurisdiction, but the case could still help unite international opinion and nudge China toward greater cooperation. A decision is expected in 2016.

Beijing should realize that its use of sharp elbows diminishes confidence in regional self-governance and encourages its neighbors to turn to the United States for protection. In turn, Washington must use its words and actions to defend the global commons and support multilateral diplomacy, rather than merely asserting its military supremacy. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations should drive negotiations with China to commit all parties to a code of conduct to manage maritime disputes before small ripples grow into big waves.

Colombia

Peace talks in Havana between the Colombian government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) achieved a series of breakthroughs in recent months, raising hopes that the country may finally see an end to its 51-year-old armed conflict in 2016. The conflict has claimed the lives of an estimated 220,000 people; 50,000 have been “disappeared,” and a staggering 7.6 million people have registered as victims of the conflict.

In December, the two sides announced a milestone agreement on transitional justice, one of the toughest issues on the agenda. They had previously reached agreements — with some matters left open for discussion — on rural development, political participation, and drug policy.

President Juan Manuel Santos has declared an ambitious March 23 deadline for reaching a final agreement, but he has pushed back the date for a bilateral cease-fire. Sensitive questions continue to dog the disarmament and reintegration of rebel forces, as well as monitoring mechanisms to ensure implementation. Other complex issues include how to confirm the peace agreement: The government has committed to a popular vote, while the FARC has long called for a constituent assembly. A smaller rebel group, the National Liberation Army (ELN), must also join the peace process. And the huge challenge of healing the scars left by decades of war in a country still plagued by illegal armed groups remains. All that said, there are positive signs that the continent’s longest-running, and last-remaining, armed conflict will soon come to a conclusion.

Power To The Wrong People

Security remains a major problem in the country. Progress is being made but it is slow because the government wants to disarm or otherwise disable militias without triggering another civil war. The dozens of major militias know they are unpopular and are under government and popular under pressure to disband. The growing number of anti-militia demonstrations is evidence of that. Most of these militias don’t agree with each other but are united by the desire to stay in business (be it just stealing or Islamic terrorism). If the government comes on too strong many of these militias could unite and put up some serious resistance. More civil war is very unpopular among nearly all Libyans, especially now that the economy is reviving. The government is training more police and some areas are organizing anti-militia defense volunteers. These could be called militias, except that they are led and staffed by people who are very hostile to the militia concept. Such local volunteer groups are common around the world when organized armed groups become intolerable.

 

On the Egyptian border security personnel strive to keep weapons smugglers from getting into Egypt and Egyptians from illegally entering Libya looking for work. Some 4,000 Egyptians have tried that so far this year and they come by land and sea. It’s unknown how many weapons (stolen from government warehouses or troops during the revolution) have made it into Egypt. Every month several shipments are detected and seized. 

 

In neighboring Tunisia police and soldiers have been searching for about fifty Islamic terrorists who are operating in the Atlas Mountains near the Kasserine Pass. The search concentrated on a hundred square kilometers of sparsely populated forests and mountains without much success. Algerian border security in that area has been increased in case the terrorists try to flee that way and none are expected to head for Libya. This is the first time Tunisia has had to deal with armed Islamic terrorists since 2007. The armed men in the Atlas Mountains have been active in the area for at least six months. Some of these terrorists recently fled Mali and others are from Algeria. These were joined by a smaller group (a dozen or so) of Tunisian Islamic terrorists who had apparently not been active until joined by all these new men and a few local recruits. Because of this increase in violence the moderate Islamic government of Tunisia has declared war on Islamic radicals and these groups have responded by accepting the challenge and promising a lot more violence. Eleven of the 32 terrorists killed nearby in an attack on an Algerian natural gas field in January, were Tunisian, which provided a hint that there were a lot more Islamic terrorists in Tunisia than the government wanted to admit. That group had travelled through Libya to reach their target. 

 

The U.S. FBI has identified 25 of the 45 people it has photos of attacking the American diplomatic compound in Benghazi last September. This left the U.S. ambassador and three other Americans dead. The FBI is seeking more information on three of the 45, apparently in the belief that they are leaders. 

 

May 15, 2013: For the second time in the last six months the Zueitina oil terminal (180 kilometers southwest of Benghazi) was shut down because demonstrators (demanding jobs or more money from the government) blocked access. 

 

May 13, 2013: A car exploded near a hospital in Benghazi killing three people. Thought at first to be a car bomb, further investigation revealed that it was an accident, when explosives used for fishing accidentally detonated. 

 

May 12, 2013: The militias besieging several ministries in the capital have finally withdrawn, several days after their main demand (a law barring Kaddafi era people from serving in government) was met. This allowed employees to return to work at the Foreign and Interior ministries. 

 

In neighboring Tunisia police broke up a large demonstration by Islamic radicals. 

 

May 11, 2013: A police station was attacked in Benghazi and damaged. One of the attackers was killed and the incident was apparently an act of revenge by someone angry at the police. 

 

May 10, 2013: There were two attacks on police stations in Benghazi early today. There were no casualties, just property damage. Later in the day there were anti-militia demonstrations in three cities.

The U.S. announced it was withdrawing some of its diplomatic staff because of the growing threat of terrorist violence. This came a day after the U.S. warned it citizens to not visit Libya because of the terrorist threat. Other Western nations have taken similar precautions. 

 

May 8, 2013: Tunisia arrested a Libyan man at a southern port and seized 150 kg (330 pounds) of explosives on his fishing boat. This is the latest such incident as individuals from Libya continue trying to smuggle weapons into Tunisia. Islamic radicals and gangsters are the customers for this stuff and so far the government has not found evidence of any organization behind the smuggling. 

 

May 5, 2013: Responding to weeks of pressure from Islamic radicals and militias the legislature passed a law banning anyone who worked for Kaddafi from holding political office for the next ten years. Such a law was proposed last December but stalled over the issue of what to do about Kaddafi officials who changed sides during the civil war and people who worked for Kaddafi but were not supporters of Kaddafi. The foreign ministry, like many other ministries, has some senior officials who changed sides during the war. There is an element of class, family and tribal envy here since during decades of Kaddafi rule educated or ambitious Libyans could either go into exile (which many did) or work for the government. Some supported Kaddafi’s ideas about a benevolent (in theory) dictatorship, most did not. After Kaddafi fell two years Libyans were split on the issue of barring everyone who ever worked for Kaddafi (including those who quit and fled the country) from government employment. For many Libyans it’s all black and white and no compromise will be tolerated. But many of Libyans who could be banned are just the sort of educated and skilled people the country needs in government right now. The group hardest hit by this is the National Forces Alliance, the coalition that controls the most seats in the legislature. The many officials forced out of office will not disappear and many will continue to influence national affairs as unofficial advisors to their successors. 

 

May 3, 2013: In Tripoli several hundred anti-militia protestors demonstrated. This attracted some militiamen, who attacked the demonstrators. 

 

May 2, 2013: The U.S. revealed that their investigation into Libyan nuclear weapons efforts revealed evidence that North Korea supplied key materials and technology. This was made possible by Pakistani nuclear weapons developer A Q Khan, who originally stole technology from the West that enabled him to create Pakistan's nuclear bombs. In 2004 Khan admitted that he had then sold that technology (as a private venture) to other nations (like Libya and North Korea). Outrage from the West over this led Khan to be placed under house arrest. But he was kept away from journalists and spared any prosecution. That was because he was a national hero in Pakistan for creating the "Islamic Bomb." Popular demand eventually led to Khan being released from house arrest four years ago. 

North Korea continued aiding Libya until 2007. After that the Kadaffi government made a deal with the UN and many Western nations to halt its nuclear and chemical weapons programs and get sanctions lifted. But many details of North Korean and Pakistani cooperation were withheld.

Togo, Senegal and Libya order French patrol boats

The navies of Togo, Senegal and Libya have ordered patrol boats from Raidco Marine and will take delivery in the coming months.

Senegal’s 33 metre long RPB 33 offshore patrol vessel will be launched on June 15 and delivered to the Senegalese Navy around August-September, according to the manufacturer. Construction began last year.

The RPB 33 was designed for maritime patrol and dealing with things like terrorism, trafficking, illegal fishing and illegal immigration. A notable feature of the RPB 33 is a panoramic bridge allowing 360 degree surveillance. Weapons options include a 20 mm cannon.

Senegal has apparently also ordered a Raidco 45 metre long offshore patrol vessel, for delivery in September 2014. This will have an endurance of ten days and a range of 2 000 nautical miles. It will be able to launch two small boats. In October 2012 Senegal ordered four FPB 98 Mk I patrol boats from OCEA.

Meanwhile, Togo has ordered two RPB 33s, for delivery in March and July 2014. They will be constructed of glass fibre reinforced composites, with an aluminium superstructure.

Another recent Raidco customer from Africa is Libya, which ordered two Raidco Marine RPB 20 boats, which will be delivered to the Navy on April 26. As part of the deal, Raidco is training 32 Libyan sailors (including four officers) as well as maintenance and other personnel in Lorient. They will remain in France for a month before sailing for Libya.

The RPB 20 series is 20 metres long, has a top speed of 28 knots (thanks to its double-chine deep-V hull) and can launch a small boat.

No Benghazi II: Pentagon now prepared to repel assaults on diplomatic outposts in Africa

The Pentagon says it’s now equipped to launch the type of rescue mission that could have helped American personnel who came under deadly attack at the temporary diplomatic post in Benghazi, Libya, last year.

U.S. Africa Command has positioned a 500-strong Marine task force in Moron, Spain and equipped with Osprey aircraft capable of vertical landing along with KC-130 mid-air refueling tankers, said Defense Department spokesman Maj. Robert A. Firman.

“Their whole reason for being is crisis response in Africa,” Maj. Firman said, adding that Africom also now had its own Commander's In-extremis Force — a small commando of special forces personnel prepared to deploy at short notice.

Their exact response time is classified, he said, but “They are ready to go.”

A House hearing Wednesday will hear testimony about why the U.S. military was not prepared to protect the American diplomats and workers attacked by terrorists last year in Benghazi.

Gregory N. Hicks, a career diplomat who became chief of mission in Libya when the attack killed U.S. Ambassador J. Christopher Stevens and three other U.S. personnel, has told investigators from the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee that the U.S. military had no assets ready to respond immediately to the attack.

According to transcript excerpts of his interviewers released by congressional staff, Mr. Hicks said that four U.S. special operations troops in Tripoli were told not to get on a plane to Benghazi the morning after the attack.

That incident is apparently the source of the notorious “stand down” allegation, charging that Obama administration officials ordered military forces not to go to the rescue.

But Mr. Hicks acknowledged that even the second phase of the attack was over before the plane, provided by the Libyan military, took off after 6 AM on Sept. 12.

“No U.S. government element refused or denied requests for emergency assistance during the crisis,” says an interim report from House investigative staff.

Mr. Hicks‘ account confirms the findings of the State Department-chartered investigations called an Accountability Review Board, that no U.S. military assets were close enough to respond to the attacks in Benghazi. He told investigators there was no air-to-air refueling available to get F15s at Aviano U.S. Air Force Base in Italy to Benghazi and back.

But that conclusion also raises harder questions about why the Department of Defense was not prepared to launch a no-notice rescue mission in Africa, despite the presence of U.S. diplomatic facilities in countries like Libya, Mali and the Central African republic which were known last year to be highly unstable and to have military forces that might not be able to defend U.S. diplomats.

Libyan military official says 200 gunmen surround Foreign Ministry, demand reform

A Libyan military official says about 200 armed men are surrounding the Foreign Ministry building in Tripoli, demanding the ministry to reform and hire former fighters who helped overthrow former dictator Moammar Gadhafi.

Esam al-Naas said 38 trucks, some mounted with machineguns, had surrounded the ministry on Sunday. The men allege that many supporters of the old regime are still occupying senior positions in the ministry and its missions abroad.

He said negotiations with the protesters are underway and that no one has entered the ministry building.

Libya seeks to boost naval ties with France

The French stealth frigate Aconit berthed in Tripoli port on Sunday, 16 December 201

Discussions over how to strengthen ties between the Libyan and French navies took place in Tripoli on Sunday, when navy chief of staff Hassan Boushnak met the with commander of a visiting French frigate.

Boushnak met the captain of the French stealth frigate Aconit, Olivier de Saint Julien, at a naval base in the capital, where the pair talked about increasing cooperation between the forces, sharing intelligence and joint training.

Saint Julien took part in NATO operations against Qaddafi during the 2011 revolution on board the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle, and this is the Aconit’s first visit to Libya since its involvement in last year’s conflict.

Saint Julien said in a statement that his discussions with Boushnak had focused on cooperation in the future, but said he and his crew were delighted to be in Libya to establish ties between the navies.

He added that a number of Libyan naval personnel will tour military bases in France soon, although he did not specify when the visit would take place or how many officers had been invited.

Boushnak said that the visit of the frigate, which will stay in Tripoli until 17 December, was part of a wider initiative aimed at strengthening maritime ties between France and Libya.

The two forces first started working together in November 2011, he said, when French naval personnel helped to clear mines and debris from fighting during the revolution from around Tripoli, as well as training Libyan divers.

At the time of the revolution, Libya’s fleet under Qaddafi was already run-down and outdated, and NATO bombing destroyed a number of its warships.

Since the end of fighting last year, efforts have been made to retrain naval personnel to help maintain Libya’s sea borders and prevent migrants travelling to Europe, with significant assistance from foreign navies.

A Libyan naval team visited Tripoli in September to help with training, and earlier this month officers from the Libyan armed forces attended a three-day seminar held by the British military, which also took place in Tripoli.

Libya declares emergency law in southern regions

Black smoke billows as fighting takes place in the southern oasis city of Kufra, located in a triangle where the borders of Egypt, Chad and Sudan meet, on June 12, 2012, as members of Libya's Toubou minority and government forces clash’

Libya has temporarily shut down its borders with its southern neighbors and declared emergency law in seven southern regions citing mounting unrest there. This comes as Tripoli struggles to bring the entire country under its full control.

"The provinces of Ghadames, Ghat, Obari, Al-Shati, Sebha, Murzuq and Kufra are considered as closed military zones to be ruled under emergency law," the country’s National Assembly said in a decree released by the official LANA news agency. The assembly ordered to temporally close borders with Chad, Niger, Sudan and Algeria.

"Upsurge in violence and drug trafficking, and the presence of armed groups that act with complete impunity," was cited as the reason for the move by Assembly member Suad Ganurt, AFP reports.

She also said there was an "increase in the flow of illegal immigrants in the expectation of eventual international military action in Mali" against Al Qaeda-linked rebels, who have seized much of the north of the country.

The emergency law gives the defense ministry powers to appoint a military governor authorized to arrest criminals and detain and deport illegal immigrants in the affected areas.

The instability in the south comes as the central authorities in Tripoli still struggle to bring the whole country under complete control, following the ousting of Gaddafi’s regime last year. With a conventional national army still lacking in Libya, many of its provinces effectively rule themselves.

Tripoli also struggles with a separatist movement in the oil-rich east of the country. Earlier this month over a thousand demonstrators rallied for autonomy in the cradle of the last year’s uprising, Benghazi.

Siege of Bani Walid: Foreign fighters, phosphorus bombs and nerve gas

The besieged Libyan city of Bani Walid has been plunged into chaos. SW the former Gaddafi regime stronghold is under attack by militias bolstered by foreign mercenaries, and they used banned weapons like white phosphorous.

­The sources denied reports of the last few days that Bani Walid was retaken by the Libyan government. Residents said that militia forces have continued their assault, while preventing the refugees who fled from reentering the city. 

A man who claimed his relatives are trapped inside the besieged city spoke with RT, saying, “There is no food; there is nothing to support the life of people. And the militia does not allow anyone to come back to their homes.”

“They are demolishing homes with machinery and tanks. There is no communication or internet so people are not able to connect with each other,” the source said. He is currently in Egypt, and refuses to reveal his identity over fears of personal safety.

He believes the real reason for the inoperable communications is that many people have been killed inside Bani Walid by the forces besieging the city and now they are trying to prevent information about the killings to be leaked outside. 

The militia attackers have claimed they are battling ‘pro-Gaddafi’ forces, but the source slammed that motive as a “lie and a dirty game.”

“They use foreign snipers, I think from Qatar or Turkey, with Qatar covering all the costs,” he said. He claimed that a ship with weapons and other equipment recently docked in the port city of Misrata, where the assault on Bani Walid is allegedly being directed.

“There is no government in Libya. Groups of militia control everything. They don’t care about Libya, they don’t care about the nation,” he said, adding allegations that the majority of militia fighters have dual citizenship or passports from other countries.

“We ask the envoy [Special Representative] of the Secretary-General of the United Nations [for Libya] Mr. Tarik Mitri – where is he now?” he said. “Where is the United Nations? Where is the EU? Where is the Human Rights Watch? We ask for an intervention now as soon as possible – please!”

In an October 23 UN session, the US blocked a statement on the violence in Bani Walid drafted by Russia, which condemned the ongoing conflict in the city and calling for a peaceful resolution.

Witnesses claim militia used chemical weapons in Bani Walid

“I can confirm that pro-government militias used internationally prohibited weapons. They used phosphorus bombs and nerve gas. We have documented all this in videos, we recorded the missiles they used and the white phosphorus raining down from these missiles,” Bani Walid-based activist and lawyer Afaf Yusef told RT.

“Many people died without being wounded or shot, they died as a result of gases. The whole world needs to see who they are targeting. Are they really Gaddafi's men? Are the children, women and old men killed – Gaddafi's men?” Yusef said.

The forces attacking Bani Walid have been ordered to use “all means necessary” in their assault on the city. “To all parasites and leaches, a message to all of them across Libya, wherever they are: Whoever you are, however strong you are, and whoever your back is – the revolution should win,” a militant said in the TV report.

Looming humanitarian catastrophe in Bani Walid

The humanitarian situation outside Bani Walid is reportedly nearly as dire as that within the besieged city. Those who managed to flee the violence now find themselves stranded on the desert roads outside the city.

Thousands of Bani Walid residents have reportedly tried to reenter the city, but were stopped at makeshift militia checkpoints composed of pickup trucks armed with mounted machine-guns.

“Look at the people over there, they got a gun and they’re shooting at people with it,” a Bani Walid resident said, pointing in the direction of a checkpoint. He claimed that those who fled the city had been forced to stay in the desert for more than a week.

“Where is the government?” he said.

'600 killed in Bani Walid fighting in one day' – source

Amid conflicting reports that the Libyan city of Bani Walid was captured by army forces, RT has learned that 600 people were allegedly killed in Wednesday’s fighting, and over 1,000 have been hospitalized. Locals are appealing for international aid.

Libyan officials claimed that government forces conducted a 20-day siege before capturing Bani Walid, the last stronghold for supporters of the Gaddafi regime, and seized the city. Sources in the town gave conflicting reports, saying that local militias were responsible for the siege and now control of the area.

“We continue to receive conflicting reports. From sources on the ground, we’re hearing that the army is withdrawing from the city, although we are hearing of widespread killings. Government sources say the city has fallen,”

An individual in Italy who allegedly has relatives in Bani Walid spoke to RT about the current state of the city. Calling himself ‘Alwarfally’ – referring to a tribe from Bani Walid – he asked to remain anonymous for the interview.

He said he contacted his family in the besieged city, who told him that the situation there has stabilized: The militia retreated, but only after kidnapping a local member of the ‘Council of the Elders,’ which was tasked by Bani Walid’s tribal leaders with governing the city after the fall of Gaddafi.

 “Bani Walid’s people got the control of the city again,” Alwarfally told RT. “[The] situation in Bani Walid is better now. Militia fell back after the fight that happened yesterday, and everything is good.”

“Militia kidnapped the consul of Bani Walid, his health is poor,” he said. “They will take him to Misrata and I don’t know what will happen to him. He is a very good man. He didn’t have anything to do with what happened, he is just a council member in Bani Walid.”

The Misrata militia that allegedly laid siege to Bani Walid was the same group accused of war crimes by Human Rights Watch last week.

Alwarfally also claimed that at least hundreds of people were killed during the 20-day siege.

“The number is really big,” he said. “One the first day that [the militia] came, there were about 70 bodies from the fighting. Yesterday night there was 600.”

“The number of people in the hospitals is over 1000,” he added.

Whether government forces or militias are behind the violence, video footage from the town paints a very graphic picture.

“Some of the photos and video we’ve been receiving show dismembered bodies and children who have been killed. Some of that footage is coming from Bani Walid television,” Slier said.

Militias blockaded the town for the past 20 days in an attempt to locate those responsible for the death of Omran Shaaban – the man credited with capturing Muammar Gaddafi last year. The Warfalla tribe controlling Bani Walid was accused of kidnapping and torturing Shaaban.

The people of Bani Walid have been appealing for help from the international community – but Moscow's aid efforts were stopped by the United States.

Washington blocked a draft statement, proposed by Russia, on the resolution of violence in Bani Walid earlier this week. The statement called for a peaceful solution to the conflict.

Missing Milans In Gaza

French Milan ATGMs (anti-tank guided missiles) have been spotted in Gaza. These are believed to be from Libya, part of the thousands of weapons looted from government bases during the civil war there last year. Egypt has captured many of these weapons as smugglers brought them in. The most eager buyer for the missiles was various terrorist groups in Gaza. In addition to 400 Milan launchers Libya owned, Qatar sent over fifty to the rebels last year. Most of the Milan systems in Libya were accounted for after the rebellion ended in late 2011. If Milans are in Gaza, there won’t be a lot of them. Still, they pose a threat to some Israeli armored vehicles if the Israeli troops go into Gaza again.

Designed by European firm MBDA, Milan is older missile technology that can still get the job done if used against lightly armored vehicles and older tanks. The basic Milan is a 1.2 meter long, 125mm diameter, 7.1 kg (16 pound) missile. It has a minimum range of 400 meters and maximum range of 2,000 meters. At max range the missile takes about 13 seconds to reach its target. The missile is guided to the target by the operator via a thin wire. The launcher weighs 21 kg (46 pounds). The missile can penetrate about a meter (39 inches) of armor, making it effective against all but the most modern tanks (M-1, Challenger, Leopard 2). Since the 1970s, over 350,000 Milan missiles and 30,000 launchers have been built worldwide. More modern ATGM are wireless and require much less effort on the part of the operator but they are more expensive. Milans are now being phased out in favor of more modern designs. France recently went looking for a MILAN replacement and the two finalists were the American Javelin and Israeli Spike MR. Javelin won, but it was close.