Egypt Asks Russia for Anti-Tank Missiles, Warplanes - Request comes after Saudis gave Egypt $2 billion for Russian weapons

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has asked Russia to supply Egypt with high-tech fighter jets, attack helicopters, and anti-tank missile systems, according to regional reports.

 

Sisi made the request in Moscow Tuesday during a meeting with his counterpart, Russian President Vladimir Putin, who met with the Egyptian leader to discuss expanding arms exports.

 

The request for these advanced weapons comes just months after the Saudi Arabian government donated $2 billion to Egypt to finance the purchase of Russian-made weapons.

 

Sisi’s reliance on Moscow for these arms is another sign that the Egyptian government is growing more distant from Washington, which, under the Obama administration, has slashed aid to Cairo and cut back on key weapons shipments that help the country combat terrorism.

 

Sisi is likely seeking to cement a weapons gap left by the United States’ abrupt refusal to fulfill its arms deals with Cairo following the ousting of former Muslim Brotherhood-backed President Mohamed Morsi.

 

During the powwow with Putin, Sisi reportedly asked for top-line equipment, including MiG29 fighter jets, Kornet anti-tank missile system, Kamoc Ka-25 attack helicopters, Mil Mi-28 attack helicopters, and various transport helicopters, according to an Arabic report on the meeting published by Youm7.

 

While the State Department did not respond to requests for comment on the meeting, regional experts told Submariners World that the weapons request is no surprise given the Obama administration’s efforts to distance itself from Cairo.

 

“Putting aside how disconcerting it is that Saudi Arabia—which is so angry with Putin’s support to Assad—is earmarking funding for Russian weapons, a potential deal comes as little surprise,” David Schenker, director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy’s Program on Arab Politics, told the Free Beacon.

 

“The Egyptians have a lot of Russian legacy systems in their current arsenal,” Schenker explained. “Washington was hoping to phase it out, and fully standardize on U.S. equipment, but that’s not going to happen anytime soon.”

 

Egyptian leaders in the new secular government are still fuming over the Obama administration’s efforts to chill relations, Schenker said.

 

“The Egyptians were stung by the hold on U.S. weapons transfers [which were] related to Human Rights concerns,” Schenker explained.

 

At least 10 U.S. planes earmarked for Egypt are still docked at Fort Hood in Texas following moves by Sen. Patrick Leahy (D., Vt.) to block the transfer as punishment for Sisi’s crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood and its news organ, Al Jazeera.

 

The cutoff in U.S. arms came at a critical juncture for Egypt, which has had trouble combatting terrorists affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood and other extremist groups in the Sinai region near Israel.

 

“In the midst of a serious counterinsurgency campaign in the Sinai, and with a growing threat on the Libyan border, Egypt has not surprisingly come to the conclusion that it needs to diversify,” Schenker said. “The U.S. is no longer viewed as a reliable supporter.”

 

Schenker and his WINEP colleague Eric Trager warned in March that Egyptian “mistrust of Washington” was forcing a turn to Russia, which has foreign policy goals different that that of the U.S.

 

Sisi’s request for Russia’s Kornet anti-tank weaponry is perhaps the most significant. This is the same system Russia gave to embattled Syrian President Bashar al Assad, who, in turn, has allowed Hezbollah to access the system.

 

“Hezbollah, which had received these from Assad’s Syria, used these to great effect in 2006 against Israeli armor in Lebanon,” said Schenker.

 

“It’s unclear why Egypt needs these systems” and it could lead Israel to “complain, quietly, that this constitutes an erosion of” its qualitative military edge (QME) over its regional neighbors, which the United States has always promised to ensure.

 

However, Israel is not likely to press the case given its warmer relations with Egypt since the secular government took hold.

 

Questions also remain about how exactly the Egyptian military would integrate Russia’s MiG planes into its fleet of American-made F16 jets.

 

“This will prove both costly and a logistical mess,” Schenker warned.

Report: Egypt Spies Alerted Israel to German Dolphin Submarine Buy, Russian Contract to Upgrade Tanks

Leaked confessions from a pair of Egyptians accused of spying for Israel on Thursday allegedly revealed that the most serious intelligence delivered was a report in 2010 that Egypt was buying four German Dolphin submarines and signing a contract with Russia to upgrade 35 tanks, according to Egypt’s Al-Masry Al-Youm.
 

According to the newspaper, which claimed to have access to signed confessions, the intelligence reports submitted to Israel  also described military exercises by the Egyptian army, the military council at the time of the revolution, and the popularity of religious movements. The reports were sent via an encrypted laptop that the Israeli intelligence had provided and the accused agents were paid €500 ($685) per report.
 

The two alleged spies, Ramzi Ahmed al-Shebini and Sahar Salama, on Monday were referred to a criminal court, along with unnamed Israeli Mossad agents, who would be tried in absentia.
 

In the confession, al-Shebini said he repeatedly approached Israeli embassy officials in Rome to offer his services as a spy, but was rebuffed. When the Israelis finally relented, al-Shebini said he was trained by collecting information about certain churches, universities and hotels in Italy.

 

 

He recruited Salama who works for a newspaper of the armed forces. After six months, Israel accepted her as part of this espionage team and provided the pair with a bag to hide secret reports. Salama’s first reports were about Army celebrations at the military academy’s graduations and on the anniversary of the Yom Kippur War in 2009. She was then assigned to monitor army clubs and hotels, certain military industrial and agricultural projects, and military recruitment procedures.
 

In total, nine suspects, three Egyptians and six Israeli Mossad officers, were fingered in the spy ring, according to Al-Masry Al-Youm  earlier in February. Charges include transferring information about armed forces deployment, headquarters, security ambushes, infiltrators, jihadists and the Rafah border crossing in Sinai that could harm national interests, the report said.

 

Egypt's army to end parliament under roadmap

Egypt's army will suspend the constitution and dissolve parliament under a draft political roadmap to be pursued if President Mohammed Mursi and the liberal opposition fail to agree by tomorrow.

The sources told Reuters the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) was still discussing details and the plan, intended to resolve a political crisis that has brought millions of protesters into the streets, could be changed based on political developments and consultations.

Chief-of-staff General Abdel Fattah El-Sisi called in a statement for Mr Mursi to agree within 48 hours on power-sharing with other political forces, saying the military would otherwise set out its own roadmap for the country's future.

Mr Mursi has rejected an army ultimatum to force a resolution to Egypt's political crisis, saying that he had not been consulted and would pursue his own plans for national reconciliation.

The leader described as potentially confusing yesterday’s 48-hour deadline set by the head of the armed forces for him to agree on a common platform with liberal rivals.

His opponents have drawn millions into the streets demanding Mr Mursi's resignation.

Members of his Muslim Brotherhood have used the word "coup" to describe the military manoeuvre, which carries the threat of the generals imposing their own plans for the nation.

But in a statement issued at nearly 2am, nine hours after General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi delighted Mr Mursi's opponents by effectively ordering the president to heed the demands of demonstrators, the president's office used considerably less direct language to indicate he would try to take little notice.

"The president of the republic was not consulted about the statement issued by the armed forces," it said.

"The presidency sees that some of the statements in it carry meanings that could cause confusion in the complex national environment."

Official video was released showing Mr Mursi meeting General Sisi. It is unclear when it was shot.

The statement from Mr Mursi's office continued: "The presidency confirms that it is going forward on its previously plotted path to promote comprehensive national reconciliation ... regardless of any statements that deepen divisions between citizens."

Describing civilian rule as a great gain from the revolution of 2011, Egypt's first freely elected leader, in office for just a year, said he would not let the clock be turned back.

But in referring to his plans for reconciliation as those he had spelt out before, he was speaking of offers that have already been rejected by the opposition.

That means it is improbable that such compromises would be agreed before General Sisi's deadline.

Mr Mursi also spoke to US President Barack Obama by phone yesterday, the presidency said in a separate statement.

Mr Mursi stressed that Egypt was moving forward with a peaceful democratic transition based on the law and constitution, it said.

A sense of disintegration in the administration since the protests on Sunday has been heightened by the resignations tendered by several ministers who are not members of Mr Mursi's Muslim Brotherhood.

This morning the state news agency said the foreign minister, Mohamed Kamel Amr, had also asked to step down.

Attacks on Brotherhood offices have added to feelings among Islamists that they are under siege.

Some Brotherhood leaders, who swept a series of votes last year, said they would look to put their own supporters on the streets.

After the destruction of the Brotherhood's headquarters in a battle overnight on Monday in which eight people were killed, the possibility of wider violence seems real.

No question of negotiating

The coalition that backed Sunday's protests said there was no question of it negotiating now with Mr Mursi on the general's timetable and it was already formulating its positions for discussion directly with the army once the 48 hours are up.

General Sisi, in his broadcast statement, insisted that he had the interests of democracy at heart - a still very flawed democracy that Egyptians have been able to practise as a result of the army pushing aside Hosni Mubarak in the face of a popular uprising.

That enhanced the already high standing of the army among Egyptians.

Military helicopters dropped national flags over Cairo's Tahrir Square at sunset on Sunday, further boosting the army’s popularity with protesters.

But on the other side of Egypt's polarised politics, a Brotherhood spokesman said it might consider forming "self-defence" committees after a series of attacks on its premises.

Another leading figure in the movement, Mohamed El-Beltagy, said: "The coming period will witness an alignment between all the Islamist forces. Their sons will be called on to demonstrate in all streets and squares of the country."

Among Mr Mursi's allies are groups with more militant pasts, including al-Gamaa al-Islamiya, a sometime associate of al-Qaeda, whose men fought Mr Mubarak's security forces for years and who have warned they would not tolerate renewed military rule.

An alliance of Islamist groups, including the Brotherhood, issued a cautious joint statement that avoided criticising the army but spoke of it being manipulated by rival parties.

Egyptians Rise Up Against Islamic Radicals

Syrian rebels operating near the Israeli border, including the Islamic terrorist outfits, announced that they had no intention of launching attacks into Israel and were only interested in destroying Syrian government forces in the area. Syrian rebels have informally said this for months, but the media has been playing up the possibility that the rebels might attack Israel. This seemed suicidal but it did stir things up in Israel, which has been providing medical aid to some of the Syrians wounded along the border. Israelis have established some informal communications with the rebels on the border and discussions between these rebels and Israelis led to the official announcement.

 

Hamas has rejected peace talks with Israel as pointless. Hamas wants Israel destroyed and will only meet with the Israelis to discuss ceasefires. As far as Hamas is concerned Palestinians are at war with Israel and the fighting will only stop when Israel is destroyed. Western nations, especially the United States, believe some kind of peace deal is possible. So do some Palestinians, but this is despite decades of official Palestinian propaganda backing the “destroy Israel” goal and describing peace talks as a tactic in the battle to annihilate Israel and not a means to a peace deal. Israel believes that their best hope for peace with the Palestinians is the growing pressure on Palestinians by the Arab states (particularly the wealthy ones in the Gulf) to make peace. Israel has become a more public ally of these Arab nations in their battle with Iran and Israel hopes that sort of thing eventually leads to more Arab countries (besides Jordan and Egypt) establishing diplomatic relations. Israel already has informal diplomatic relations with several Arab states and the trend, slow as it is, has been towards more Arab states openly establishing formal links with Israel. 

 

Most Israelis have come to accept this Palestinian attitude and no longer support a permanent peace deal. Most Israelis agree with going through the motions, if only to please the United States and other Western nations, but few believe such talks will produce anything. A growing number of Arabs have also given up on a Palestinian peace deal and are pressuring the Palestinians to at least give up the pro-terrorist attitudes and make a long-term truce with Israel so that the Palestinian economy can be revived. The Palestinian terrorist groups, especially Hamas (which controls Gaza and 40 percent of the Palestinian population) will not quit trying to kill Israelis any way they can. Some Arab countries have threatened to cut financial support for Palestinians (especially Hamas) if the Palestinians don’t halt their hopeless war against Israel. Some Palestinians are listening to this, most are not. 

 

Hamas, like all other Islamic radical groups that gain control of a government, are making themselves increasingly unpopular as they continue to enact laws that restrict the lifestyle of the Palestinians they rule. Hamas has recently sought to restrict the mixing of men and women, and even children over age nine. These rules apply to Christian Palestinians as well as Moslems. The kids do not like this, and especially hate the growing list of dress restrictions. Hamas has other problems besides angry teenagers. Islamic terrorist group Islamic Jihad (an Iran backed terror group that is a Hamas rival) is threatening armed rebellion against Hamas. Many in Hamas see this as the work of Iran, which is angry at Hamas for openly supporting the Syrian rebels. That has cost Hamas over a million dollars a month in Iranian cash and caused a lot of dissent within Hamas. A few dozen, or more, Hamas men have gone to Syria to fight against the rebels. 

 

Israel believes Hezbollah is in big trouble as Lebanese opponents of Hezbollah increasingly use deadly force to express their opposition to the Iranian-backed Shia militia. That hostility in Lebanon has been building for decades and now that Hezbollah is openly involved fighting in Syria, the many enemies the Shia militia has made in Lebanon and outside the country (Israel and many Arab countries that are actively opposed to Iran-sponsored terrorism) are informally uniting in an effort to bring Hezbollah down. The Israelis play on Hezbollah fears that Israeli troops will be sent into southern Lebanon to destroy over 20,000 rockets stored in bunkers and the basements of homes and businesses within a few kilometers of the Israeli border. The Israelis know where a lot of these rockets are, and where the rest probably are. An air campaign would kill lots of civilians (forced by Hezbollah to store the rockets in their homes) so Israeli generals want to send troops in to remove and destroy the rockets without destroying the homes and businesses. A lot of Lebanese would welcome that but cannot admit it publicly because the official line in Lebanon is “Israel must be destroyed.” 

The Gulf Arab states that support the Syrian rebels have warned Hezbollah that if they do not withdraw their gunmen from Syria, Hezbollah will be added to the Arab list of terrorist organizations and Hezbollah will no longer be able to operate openly in most of the Arab world. This would hurt Hezbollah big time.  Hezbollah needs the Iranian support to survive and is now in a position where it will take some major losses no matter what it does. So will Iran, which has long considered Hezbollah ones of its major achievements. 

 

The Israeli government announced that from now on Jewish settlers in the West Bank making "price tag" attacks will be treated like terrorists. This gives the police more power to investigate and prosecute these crimes. These price tag attacks are usually in retaliation of the Israeli government dismantling illegal structures in the West Bank or local Palestinians attacking the settlements or settlers. Price tag attacks represent a shift in settler attitudes over the last few years. For decades the settlers could be depended on to be passive after a Palestinian attack, letting the Israeli police and military look for the culprit. But now the settlers are increasingly launching "price tag" counterattacks. The price tag refers to what the Palestinians must suffer for every attack on Israelis, or for Israeli police interfering with settler activities. This is vigilante justice, and it does more damage to Palestinians than Israeli police efforts to catch and prosecute Palestinian attackers. The Palestinians are not accustomed to this kind of swift payback, and they do not like it. Israel has been under growing public and international pressure to crack down more vigorously on the vigilantes. This became especially urgent because the attacks are much more common, and are even extending to feuds between factions of Jewish religious extremists. The Palestinians are still committing most of the terror attacks, but the Jewish terrorists are catching up. 

 

Egypt, in response to the growing internal unrest (between the Islamic Brotherhood dominated government and reformers and corrupt elements from the former Mubarak government) has continued its crackdown on smuggling tunnels into Gaza. Since March police have been searching for and destroying these smuggling tunnels. This is to make it more difficult for Islamic terrorists (opposed to the Egyptian government) to operate out of Gaza. The tunnels have been there for a long time, if only as a means to move goods and people that might have problems (arrest warrants or high tariffs) at the regular crossings. 

 

In Kuwait, two legislators openly defended Kuwait’s purchase of military equipment from Israel. The two men invoked the Prophet Mohammed’s similar dealings with the Jews and the need for Kuwait to buy the best military gear it could to defend against its enemies (who these days are mainly Iraq and Iran). There have been growing diplomatic and economic ties between Israel and several Persian Gulf Arab countries over the last decade. Many in the Gulf States want to trade with Israel and are fed up with the Palestinian self-destructiveness and inability to make peace with Israel. 

 

July 1, 2013:  The army demanded that the Moslem Brotherhood dominated government resign and allow a new one, not dominated by the Moslem Brotherhood, to be formed. President Morsi was told he had to agree to this within 48 hours or the army would move in and force him to comply. This was greeted with cheers by the many demonstrators still on the streets. Morsi and the Moslem Brotherhood are held responsible for the economic depression since the Arab Spring began two years ago and for generally ignoring the needs of the people. In practice, Morsi attempts to improve the economy were most often stymied by the wealthy (and largely pro-Mubarak) families that do not favor a real democracy, but rather an oligarchy (government controlled by the wealthiest families). Morsi told the army he would not comply with their demand. 

 

For the first time in many years Egypt has sent tanks to patrol the Gaza border. At least a battalion (30) of tanks are now operating in Sinai, mainly near Gaza.

 

June 30, 2013: In Egypt millions of people continued to demonstrate against the Moslem Brotherhood and what is seen as this Islamic radical group’s attempt to turn Egypt into a religious dictatorship. The headquarters of the Moslem Brotherhood was ransacked by anti-government demonstrators and nationwide there were nearly a thousand casualties over the last few days with at least sixteen dead. 

 

June 29, 2013: Israel and the U.S. warned its citizens to not visit Egypt in the next few days because of the growing number of demonstrations there. Supporters of Islamic radical groups are clashing with pro-democracy groups and it is feared that some of the Islamic radicals may seek out and attack non-Moslems, especially foreigners. Americans and Israelis already in Egypt have been warned to stay away from demonstrations and travel as little as possible. Egypt is suffering from political gridlock and economic collapse as Islamic radicals, democrats and supporters of the deposed Mubarak dictatorship (and that kind of government) fail to agree on a new government. The Mubarak supporters still occupy many senior positions in the courts and the military and elsewhere in the bureaucracy. The Mubarak supporters control most of the economy as well. Some Islamic radical groups are in armed opposition to the government, especially in the Sinai Peninsula, where they are sheltered by rebellious Bedouin tribesmen. The number of police and soldiers in Gaza keeps increasing, as does the resistance to government authority. Today, for example, a police general was assassinated by a group of gunmen, believed to be Islamic terrorists.

 

June 28, 2013:  In Egypt (Port Said) a homemade bomb killed one demonstrator and wounded fifteen others. In Alexandria at least three people died in clashes between democrats and Islamic radicals.

Israel announced that it is making preparations to deploy a sixth Iron Dome anti-rocket battery, with two more coming within the next eight months. The first battery of the new Magic Wand (David’s Sling) anti-aircraft/missile system, with a range of 160 kilometers, will enter service early next year. 

 

June 27, 2013: Russia has withdrawn its military and civilian personnel from the Syrian port of Tartus and turned their naval support facilities there (a few buildings and a pier for Russian warships to tie up next to) to Syrian caretakers. While Russia makes much of its newly established Mediterranean naval task force, these ships will not be using Tartus for supplies or maintenance anymore. 

 

June 24, 2013: Israeli warplanes hit several terrorist targets in Gaza in retaliation for recent rocket attacks on Israel. 

 

June 23, 2013: Six rockets were fired at Israel from Gaza. One of them landed inside Gaza and two of them were intercepted by Iron Dome missiles because the fire control computer calculated that these would land in an inhabited area. 

 

June 22, 2013: In Gaza Hamas executed two men (by hanging) it had accused of spying for Israel. Last April Hamas ended a month-long amnesty in which Palestinians who had, or were, working for Israeli intelligence could reveal themselves and be forgiven. Israel has long maintained a large, and pretty effective, informer network inside Gaza and the West Bank. Hamas has condemned five men to death so far this year after charging them with spying.

 

June 21, 2013: In Gaza the Islamic Jihad official (Raed Jundiya) in charge of rocket attacks was killed by Hamas police who tried to arrest him. Hamas is trying to force Islamic Jihad to stop firing rockets at Israel, which is a violation of the cease fire Hamas negotiated with Israel.  Islamic Jihad demanded that the men who killed Jundiya be punished and Hamas refused. This led to a three day armed standoff between Islamic Jihad and Hamas. The Islamic Jihad did the math (or were ordered by their Iranian patrons) and concluded that a war with Hamas would be futile and only benefit Israel. 

Islamic Jihad has several thousand armed followers in Gaza and cannot just be rounded up and put out of business. Islamic Jihad still refuses to halt its rocket attacks and Hamas may continue going after Islamic Jihad leaders to maintain the pressure.

 

June 19, 2013: A mortar shell landed in Israel (Gaza) and apparently came from Syria. There is still fighting on the Syrian side of the border, but not a lot. Israel has been holding more training exercises on its Syrian and Lebanese borders, to remind Hezbollah and the armed groups in Syria who they might be messing with if they fire across the border. 

BREAKING NEWS: Egyptian military gives 48 hour ultimatum to Brotherhood, political forces

The armed forces are giving all political forces 48 hours as a last chance to solve the ongoing problems, or else the armed forces will have to announce a new roadmap for the future, and will enforce certain measures with the help of all factions including the youth, without excluding anyone. 

The statement was read out on Egyptian state TV.

Ethiopia - The Threatened Egyptian Dirty War

U.S. diplomats are trying to ease tensions between Ethiopia and Egypt. Egyptian politicians were caught on live microphones discussing ways to stop Ethiopia’s Nile River dam projects. The options discussed included covert military attacks and supporting rebel groups –in other words, the Egyptians were vetting war options.  The U.S. has proposed that Ethiopia and Egypt establish a joint working group to examine the impact of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). The U.S. has urged Ethiopia to minimize the impact of the dam on downstream nations. The Egyptian leaders were initially embarrassed but they discovered that the Egyptian people rally around the Nile. Despite its own numerous internal troubles, the Egyptian government has continued to threaten Ethiopia should Ethiopia fail to suspend dam construction. Egypt has diplomatic and political power. However, threatening Ethiopia with covert attack invites retaliation by Ethiopia and at the moment Egypt is far less stable than Ethiopia. Egypt lacks the logistical capacity and long-range strike weapons to conduct a sustained military operation. Conceivably they could use the Nile River as a supply line, but barges on the river would be very susceptible to interdiction by air attack, mines or other forms of interdiction. (Austin Bay)

 

June 23, 2013: Ethiopia said that Egypt’s claims of a dooms-day reduction in the flow of the Nile River due to the GERD are absurd allegations. Ethiopia has consistently stated that filling the reservoir behind the Grande Ethiopian Renaissance Dam will take five to six years. Ethiopian government engineers contend that during this process the flow rate of the Nile River not be reduced to any degree that Egyptians will even notice it. The Ethiopian reservoir will hold 74 million cubic meters of water. One of the diplomatic options for resolving the row between Ethiopia and Egypt is for Ethiopia to agree to take ten or 11 years to fill the reservoir. (Austin Bay)

 

June 21, 2013: The head of Egypt's National Water Research Centre claimed that Ethiopia could reduce the flow of Nile river water to Egypt by ten billion kilo-liters a year.  He also claimed that every one billion kilo-liter reduction will take around 200,000 acres of farm land out of production. According to Egyptian figures, Egypt already suffers from a water deficit of around ten billion kilo-liters a year. The research center recently reported that Ethiopia’s dams could lower the river level and make upstream water ferry travel more difficult. Ethiopia rejects these claims as inaccurate and simply more Egyptian propaganda. 

 

June 20, 2013: The U.S. State Department reported that so far Ethiopia has managed a successful transfer of power following the August 2012 death of long-serving leader Meles Zenawi. Ethiopia’s economy has averaged a ten percent increase in GDP every years for the last five years. The U.S. and Ethiopia cooperate in numerous areas, to include supporting several on-going African Union security operations in Africa. At the moment the one serious problem in the Ethiopia-U.S. bilateral relationship is what the State Department called Ethiopia’s “weak human rights record.” Very bad human rights record is more accurate, but diplomats must be diplomatic.

 

June 17, 2013: For several decades the Kenyan military (Kenyan Defense Forces, KDF) has relied on the British Army Training Unit in Kenya (BATUK) for assistance in training.  The British training cadre maintains a training facility in the town of Nanyuki. BATUK has also served as a liaison unit to facilitate training exercises with British forces and the KDF.  Recently the KDF acknowledged that the training cadre had helped prepare Kenyan forces for their operation in Somalia. Implicit in the statement was that the training was high quality and it produced good results in the field. Kenya is not the first former British colony to recognize the benefit of British military training methods. Pakistan, India, Bangladesh and South Africa are all former British colonies and all rank high on the UN’s list of quality forces for peacekeeping missions. 

 

June 13, 2013: The Ethiopian parliament approved a new Nile Water rights agreement which reduces Egypt’s traditional allotment if Nile River water. Six upstream Nile River basin countries support the agreement.  Of course Egypt is not a party to the new agreement. Ethiopia’s parliament was really mocking the Egyptian government’s threats to retaliate against Ethiopia’s new dams. Ethiopian diplomats pointed out that for over ten years Ethiopia has been asking Egypt to participate in Nile River water discussions and Egypt has refused.

 

June 12, 2013: A senior Egyptian defense official stated that the escalating disagreement between his country and Ethiopia over Nile River water flow “is not a military issue at this stage,”

 

June 11, 2013: The Ethiopian government refused to stop work on any of its new dam projects. Ethiopia accused Egypt of making irresponsible threats.

 

June 10, 2013: Egyptian president Mohamed Morsi said that he does not want to go to war with Ethiopia but unless Ethiopia suspends its dam construction projects Egypt will consider “all options.” The Ethiopian government issued an immediate reply and said that Ethiopia is prepared to defend the new Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.

 

June 9, 2013:  Egypt rejected Ethiopia’s rejection of the Egyptian demand that Ethiopia cease construction of its major Blue Nile dam projects. The government of Egypt said that Egypt will never give up a single drop of Nile River water.  The Egyptian government declared that it has a plan of action. However, Egypt is willing to talk with Ethiopia.

 

June 8, 2013:  Residents of the Somali seaport of Kismayo reported a major firefight occurred between the Ras Kamboni militia and a local militia. The Ras Kamboni militia is an ally of the Kenyan Defense Forces (Kenya Army) which are still the primary peacekeeping force in Kismayo. The Ras Kamboni are loyal to Ahmed Madobe who recently declared himself president of southern Jubaland. The Somali government is concerned that Madobe will turn Jubaland into a semi-autonomous state.

 

June 7, 2013: Ethiopia rejected Egyptian demands that it cease construction of it Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) project on the Blue Nile River. The government said that Egypt’s complaints about the dam were not based on scientific evidence. Ethiopia also contended that Egypt lacks a coherent policy regarding Nile River water rights. A government spokesman accused the former Egyptian government led by Hosni Mubarak of supporting Ethiopian rebel groups and claimed that Mubarak’s attempts to destabilize Ethiopia had failed.

 

June 6, 2013: The United Kingdom announced that it will compensate five thousand Kenyans for their suffering during the 1950s Mau Mau rebellion.  The individuals compensated were held in detention camps. Many were abused and several claimed they were tortured by British colonial authorities. The British compensation offer is an attempt to settle a variety of claims, some of which have been in litigation for years. UK attorneys made the argument that the independent (since 1963) Kenyan government had taking over responsibilities for the colonial government and it should be liable for any damage claims. In November 2012 claimants produced official files that documented attempts by colonial security officials to cover up the March 1959 Hola detention camp incident. At Hola 11 prisoners were beaten to death.  No prison official was ever properly investigated or held responsible for the murders. The UK decided to pay the damage claims. Each claimant will receive around $3,900. The Mau Mau rebellion was a complex insurgency. The number of people who died during the rebellion is disputed. 10,000 is a common figure. The rebellion began in 1952 and ended in 1960.

 

June 5, 2013: The Egyptian government demanded that Ethiopia stop construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile. The demand amounts to doubling down.  After an open microphone caught senior Egyptian leaders discussing covert actions against Ethiopia, Egypt was initially embarrassed. However, protecting the Nile has proved to be a domestic political issue that unites most Egyptians. 

 

June 4, 2013: A senior aide of Egypt’s President Mohamed Morsi has apologized for one of the most public diplomatic and political mistakes committed by anyone in recent years.  The aide neglected to tell politicians meeting with President Morsi to discuss Ethiopia’s Blue Nile River dam projects that the meeting was being broadcast live on state television.  At the meeting several participants, unaware that the world was watching and listening, openly suggested ways for Egypt to sabotage Ethiopia’s dams, in particular the $4.2 billion Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).  The GERD is about 15 kilometers from the Ethiopia-Sudan border. The president and the politicians were discussing a report by the tripartite Egypt-Sudan-Ethiopia commission analyzing the impact of Ethiopia's dam project and its decision to divert the Blue Nile River. Ethiopia has already partially diverted the Blue Nile at the site of the GERD. One political leader, Yunis Makhyun, a member of the Islamist fundamentalist Nur Party, called the GERD a strategic threat to Egypt. He thought the Egyptian government should consider supporting an Ethiopian rebel group, in order to pressure the Ethiopian government. Ayman Nour, a member of the liberal-secular Ghad Party, suggested Egypt buy or circulate rumors that it will buy new military aircraft (implying ne strike aircraft that could hit the dam). He speculated that this would put political pressure on Ethiopia. He also said that Egyptian political, military and intelligence personnel might be sent to Ethiopia to “intervene” in Ethiopian domestic politics.  Egypt claims 87 percent of the Nile River’s water. The legal basis of this claim is a 1929 colonial-era agreement. In 1959 the Nasser government reiterated this claim. Egypt claims the right to veto upstream river projects. Ethiopia says it was not a party to the 1929 agreement.  Since the public vetting of these belligerent options, the Egyptian government has stated that none of the recommendations, suggestions, or speculations by the political leaders at the meeting are Egyptian government policy. (Austin Bay)

 

June 3, 2013: The Kenyan military will acquire unmanned aerial aircraft (UAVs) for use in surveillance missions. The military said that it has sought advice and assistance from both the U.S. and Japan. The military will use the drones to support military missions, but the government will also employ them in a variety of paramilitary security missions. One of the key UAV missions is monitoring light weapons smuggling. The national police also need help in monitoring tribal raiders who cross Kenya’s northern border from South Sudan, Ethiopia and Somalia.  Cattle raids continue to be a major problem in northern Kenya. The UAVs can also be used for game preserve protection, to monitor wild animal herds and to look for poachers.

 

June 2, 2013: 10,000 Ethiopian political demonstrators marched in the capital, Addis Ababa.  Most of the demonstrators were from opposition political parties. The demonstrators demanded that the government respect the constitution. They also demanded that the government release political prisoners. Authorities said it was the largest anti-government demonstration held in the country since the 2005 election. Street violence in that disputed election left over 200 people dead. The demonstrators accused the government of suppressing dissent. Ethiopia’s parliament has 547 members. Only one current member of parliament represents an opposition party.

Power To The Wrong People

Security remains a major problem in the country. Progress is being made but it is slow because the government wants to disarm or otherwise disable militias without triggering another civil war. The dozens of major militias know they are unpopular and are under government and popular under pressure to disband. The growing number of anti-militia demonstrations is evidence of that. Most of these militias don’t agree with each other but are united by the desire to stay in business (be it just stealing or Islamic terrorism). If the government comes on too strong many of these militias could unite and put up some serious resistance. More civil war is very unpopular among nearly all Libyans, especially now that the economy is reviving. The government is training more police and some areas are organizing anti-militia defense volunteers. These could be called militias, except that they are led and staffed by people who are very hostile to the militia concept. Such local volunteer groups are common around the world when organized armed groups become intolerable.

 

On the Egyptian border security personnel strive to keep weapons smugglers from getting into Egypt and Egyptians from illegally entering Libya looking for work. Some 4,000 Egyptians have tried that so far this year and they come by land and sea. It’s unknown how many weapons (stolen from government warehouses or troops during the revolution) have made it into Egypt. Every month several shipments are detected and seized. 

 

In neighboring Tunisia police and soldiers have been searching for about fifty Islamic terrorists who are operating in the Atlas Mountains near the Kasserine Pass. The search concentrated on a hundred square kilometers of sparsely populated forests and mountains without much success. Algerian border security in that area has been increased in case the terrorists try to flee that way and none are expected to head for Libya. This is the first time Tunisia has had to deal with armed Islamic terrorists since 2007. The armed men in the Atlas Mountains have been active in the area for at least six months. Some of these terrorists recently fled Mali and others are from Algeria. These were joined by a smaller group (a dozen or so) of Tunisian Islamic terrorists who had apparently not been active until joined by all these new men and a few local recruits. Because of this increase in violence the moderate Islamic government of Tunisia has declared war on Islamic radicals and these groups have responded by accepting the challenge and promising a lot more violence. Eleven of the 32 terrorists killed nearby in an attack on an Algerian natural gas field in January, were Tunisian, which provided a hint that there were a lot more Islamic terrorists in Tunisia than the government wanted to admit. That group had travelled through Libya to reach their target. 

 

The U.S. FBI has identified 25 of the 45 people it has photos of attacking the American diplomatic compound in Benghazi last September. This left the U.S. ambassador and three other Americans dead. The FBI is seeking more information on three of the 45, apparently in the belief that they are leaders. 

 

May 15, 2013: For the second time in the last six months the Zueitina oil terminal (180 kilometers southwest of Benghazi) was shut down because demonstrators (demanding jobs or more money from the government) blocked access. 

 

May 13, 2013: A car exploded near a hospital in Benghazi killing three people. Thought at first to be a car bomb, further investigation revealed that it was an accident, when explosives used for fishing accidentally detonated. 

 

May 12, 2013: The militias besieging several ministries in the capital have finally withdrawn, several days after their main demand (a law barring Kaddafi era people from serving in government) was met. This allowed employees to return to work at the Foreign and Interior ministries. 

 

In neighboring Tunisia police broke up a large demonstration by Islamic radicals. 

 

May 11, 2013: A police station was attacked in Benghazi and damaged. One of the attackers was killed and the incident was apparently an act of revenge by someone angry at the police. 

 

May 10, 2013: There were two attacks on police stations in Benghazi early today. There were no casualties, just property damage. Later in the day there were anti-militia demonstrations in three cities.

The U.S. announced it was withdrawing some of its diplomatic staff because of the growing threat of terrorist violence. This came a day after the U.S. warned it citizens to not visit Libya because of the terrorist threat. Other Western nations have taken similar precautions. 

 

May 8, 2013: Tunisia arrested a Libyan man at a southern port and seized 150 kg (330 pounds) of explosives on his fishing boat. This is the latest such incident as individuals from Libya continue trying to smuggle weapons into Tunisia. Islamic radicals and gangsters are the customers for this stuff and so far the government has not found evidence of any organization behind the smuggling. 

 

May 5, 2013: Responding to weeks of pressure from Islamic radicals and militias the legislature passed a law banning anyone who worked for Kaddafi from holding political office for the next ten years. Such a law was proposed last December but stalled over the issue of what to do about Kaddafi officials who changed sides during the civil war and people who worked for Kaddafi but were not supporters of Kaddafi. The foreign ministry, like many other ministries, has some senior officials who changed sides during the war. There is an element of class, family and tribal envy here since during decades of Kaddafi rule educated or ambitious Libyans could either go into exile (which many did) or work for the government. Some supported Kaddafi’s ideas about a benevolent (in theory) dictatorship, most did not. After Kaddafi fell two years Libyans were split on the issue of barring everyone who ever worked for Kaddafi (including those who quit and fled the country) from government employment. For many Libyans it’s all black and white and no compromise will be tolerated. But many of Libyans who could be banned are just the sort of educated and skilled people the country needs in government right now. The group hardest hit by this is the National Forces Alliance, the coalition that controls the most seats in the legislature. The many officials forced out of office will not disappear and many will continue to influence national affairs as unofficial advisors to their successors. 

 

May 3, 2013: In Tripoli several hundred anti-militia protestors demonstrated. This attracted some militiamen, who attacked the demonstrators. 

 

May 2, 2013: The U.S. revealed that their investigation into Libyan nuclear weapons efforts revealed evidence that North Korea supplied key materials and technology. This was made possible by Pakistani nuclear weapons developer A Q Khan, who originally stole technology from the West that enabled him to create Pakistan's nuclear bombs. In 2004 Khan admitted that he had then sold that technology (as a private venture) to other nations (like Libya and North Korea). Outrage from the West over this led Khan to be placed under house arrest. But he was kept away from journalists and spared any prosecution. That was because he was a national hero in Pakistan for creating the "Islamic Bomb." Popular demand eventually led to Khan being released from house arrest four years ago. 

North Korea continued aiding Libya until 2007. After that the Kadaffi government made a deal with the UN and many Western nations to halt its nuclear and chemical weapons programs and get sanctions lifted. But many details of North Korean and Pakistani cooperation were withheld.

Ethiopia - Egypt Threatens To Think About Invading

This week Ethiopia freed 74 members of the Benshangul Peoples Liberation Movement (BPLM). The release of prisoners was part of a peace deal with the BPLM. The agreement, signed in August 2012, ended a 17 year-long insurgency. Ethiopia’s Benishangul region (Benishangul-Gumuz) borders on northern Sudan. BPLM guerrillas operated from camps in Sudan, though Sudan denied it supported the BPLM.  Nile River water politics played a role in the peace deal. The BPLM had threatened to attack Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam project on the Blue Nile River. The dam site is in Benishangul-Gumuz. After the peace deal was signed, a BPLM faction claimed that it rejected the peace agreement. The Benishangul people are also called the Berta and about 180,000 live in Ethiopia.

 

May 4, 2013: Ethiopia promised Somaliland (separatist enclave in Somalia) that it will help Somaliland defend itself against Al Shabaab fighters who are seeking sanctuary from AMISOM peacekeeping units.

 

April 25, 2013: Ethiopia said it intends to withdraw its military forces from Somalia as soon as possible.  However, after Ethiopian forces withdrew from the town of Hudur (Somalia) in early March, Al Shabaab fighters re-occupied the town. Ethiopia has assured the Somali national government that it will only withdraw its forces when African Union peacekeepers in AMISOM are able to secure Ethiopian positions.

 

April 19, 2013: Kenyan authorities claimed the secessionist Mombasa Republic Council (MRC) has ties to Islamist militant extremist movements in eastern Africa. The implication is that the MRC is linked to al Shabaab in Somalia. The government believes the MRC has also received help from Iran.

 

April 17, 2013: The Ethiopian government acknowledged that the new Gibe III dam on the upper Omo River (southwest Ethiopia) will flood an area that is now the home of some 90,000 people from the Nyangatom, the Bodi the Daasanach and the Mursi tribes.

 

April 15, 2013: The Egyptian claims that Eritrea supports Egypt’s claim to its historic (traditional) Nile River water rights. The Eritrean position is no surprise. Ethiopia is Eritrea’s bitterest enemy and Egypt and Ethiopia are involved in a complicated dispute over Nile water.

 

April 13, 2013:  Deposed Central African Republic (CAR) president Francois Bozize claimed that Eritrea provided weapons to the Seleka rebel movement which toppled his government in March. Eritrea denied the charge.

 

April 9, 2013: Uhuru Kenyatta was sworn in as Kenya’s president. However, he remains under indictment by the International Criminal Court (ICC).  The ceremonies were peaceful.

 

April 8, 2013: An Ethiopian oil company claimed that the country has two fields (in the Gambella and Jijiga basins) which could hold from 1.6 to 2.9 billion barrels of recoverable oil.  

 

March 31, 2013: The Kenyan government increased security throughout the country after the country’s Supreme Court ruled that Uhuru Kenyatta had been properly elected president. The court rejected a challenge by Kenyatta’s opponent, Raila Odinga. After the decision, a riot broke out in the town of Kisuma where two people died before police could calm things down. The government is trying to avoid a repeat of the 2007 post-election violence. 

 

March 28, 2013: A gun battle erupted in the Kenyan town of Malindi when 100 members of the separatist Mombasa Republic Council  (MRC) tried to storm and rob a casino. The attackers killed a policeman who was part of a small detachment protecting the casino. A larger force of police officers responded to the attack and killed six of the attackers. Police described the incident as a gang attack, but a hundred fighters is a very large gang. Malindi is a resort town on the Indian Ocean in Coast Province. It is located 120 kilometers north of Kenya’s main seaport, Mombasa, about midway between Mombasa and Lamu.

 

March 24, 2013: Egypt continues to downplay any talk of a military confrontation with Ethiopia (over Ethiopian damming sources of the Nile River). Well it should, because revolutionary Egypt already has enough political and economic turmoil. However, Egypt and Ethiopia do have a significant difference of opinion over a very precious resource: water. The Egyptian government has said that it seeks its equitable share of Nile River water. The Egyptian government equates equitable to traditional; upstream nations, like Ethiopia contend that the traditional division favors Egypt.

 

Ethiopia also objects to the 1929 Nile Water agreement (engineered by Great Britain) which gives Egypt the right to veto upstream water projects. Ethiopia did sign the agreement. However, the 1929 agreement does affect Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania. In 2010 Ethiopia authored a new regional water sharing proposal, the Entebbe Agreement. This is also called the Cooperative Framework Agreement and Nile Basin Initiative.  This agreement would give Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania a diplomatic mechanism for altering the 1929 division of water rights.  Rwanda and Burundi also support the Entebbe agreement. Kenya and Uganda are Ethiopian allies and have forces serving in Somalia. 

Egypt refused to consider the Entebbe Agreement. Sudan also rejected it. Today, South Sudan’s government said that South Sudan will support the Entebbe agreement. Sudan and South Sudan are always five minutes away from going to war with one another.

 

Nile River water is absolutely essential to Egypt’s existence. This isn’t news – it has been that way for at least 7,000 years. Currently Egypt gets 95 percent of its water from the Nile. Ethiopia’s dam projects are on the Blue Nile (which starts in the Ethiopian highlands), the source of  85 percent of all Nile River water. No wonder every so often Egyptians say they will go to war with Ethiopia over water rights.

 

However, Ethiopia’s political and geographic position makes it a tough adversary for Egypt. Ethiopia is unquestionably the dominant political actor in the Horn of Africa. Somalia remains chaotic but the situation there, compared to a decade ago increasingly favors Ethiopia. Eritrea, which would love to ally with Egypt against Ethiopia is broke. Every month there are new rumors of coups and infighting among Eritrean factions. Sudan, another likely Egyptian ally in a war with Ethiopia, is on the outs politically with the region and the UN. Worse yet Sudan faces numerous insurgencies, from Darfur to South Kordofan. 

 

Both Egypt and Ethiopia value good relations with the European Union and the U.S., if only because the EU and the U.S. provide them both with economic aid. Saber-rattling, much less warfare, would give the EU and U.S. political fits.  Water war? Not likely. Hardball water diplomacy? That is already happening. (Austin Bay)

 

March 20, 2013: The International Criminal Court (ICC) announced that it will not drop the criminal charges against Kenya’s presumed next president, Uhuru Kenyatta. Kenyatta is charged with crimes against humanity, committed in the violent aftermath of the 2007 elections that left 1,200 people dead. Kenyatta allegedly helped plan the clashes and attacks on opposition political supporters.

 

March 16, 2013:  Kenyan opposition leader Raila Odinga filed a legal challenge contesting the election results. Election officials declared that Uhuru Kenyatta won a very narrow victory. Police in Nairobi used tear gas to disperse a small crowd (100 to 150) of Odinga’s supporters. One person was injured during the demonstration. Odinga’s legal complaint alleged vote fraud, fraudulent voter registration and inaccurate counting. Odinga, however, urged his supporters to continue to avoid post-election violence.  So far that is the big story in Kenya. Despite the deep political divisions and accusations of vote fraud, the country has not experienced any significant violent clashes related to the election, and certainly nothing like the violence which followed the 2007 disputed election.

 

March 14, 2013: A Djibouti’s Constitutional Council denied an opposition party challenge to the country’s February national election results. The council is the highest legal authority in Djibouti. 

The ruling means that Djiboutian president Ismail Omar Gulleh will continue to control the legislature. Djibouti’s main opposition group, the Union of National Salvation (UNS), claimed the election was rigged. The complaint was dismissed on technical grounds. The council said the UNS petition was not filed on time.

Hamas says Egyptian-brokered ceasefire finalized, Israel denies claim

Arabic news sources cite Hamas official Ayman Taha as saying an Egyptian brokered truce is set to be declared in Gaza at 19:00 GMT, and will go into effect at 22:00 GMT. Israel says that a ceasefire deal has yet to be finalized. 

A ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas is yet to be cemented, and the "ball is still in play", Israeli government spokesman Mark Regev told CNN on Tuesday. "Until you're there, you're not there," he said.

Regev's statement conflicts with a previous statement by Hamas official Ayman Taha, who claimed that that an Egyptian-brokered truce had been finalized. An Egyptian source close to the negotiations confirmed that "up to this point there is no final decision," Sky News cites him as saying.

However, further clouding the nature of the uncertain ceasefire, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reportedly agreed to a cessation of hostilities after being significantly pressured from Washington, Israel’s Channel 10 news reports government sources as saying.

Hamas’ political bureau chief Khaled Meshaal and his negotiators met with Egypt’s intelligence chief Raafat Shehata in Cairo in an effort to hammer out the final details of the cease-fire agreement on Tuesday.

Israel’s delegates were scheduled to return to Cairo to present Israel’s response to demands being made by Hamas. Senior Egyptian officials told Haaretz that a solution was near, but more flexibility was needed from the Israeli side.

Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi announced earlier in the day that the “farce” of Israeli aggression would end on Tuesday.

“The efforts to reach a ceasefire between the Palestinians and Israelis will produce positive results within a few hours," state news agency Mena cited him as saying.

Egypt has played an integral part in ongoing efforts to bring about a cessation of hostilities between Israel and militants in the Gaza Strip.

The conflicting reports of a ceasefire deal come amidst international efforts to prevent a further escalation of violence in the region.

UN Secretary-General Ban ki-Moon arrived in Jerusalem on Tuesday to hold talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu  after a two-day stopover in Cairo. Netanyahu had early said Israel would be a “willing partner” in cease-fire. Ki-moon is also scheduled to hold talks with Palestinian officials Ramallah – in the West Bank.

Since the US has labeled Hamas a terrorist organization, Clinton is prohibited from engaging in direct contact with the movement’s officials. Washington has therefore been forced to rely on Egypt, Turkey and Qatar to act as go-betweens with the Hamas leadership in Gaza.

US President Barack Obama dispatched Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to the Middle East on the same day to aid in the peace efforts. Clinton is set to meet with the Israeli PM in Jerusalem, Palestinian officials in Ramallah and Egyptian leaders in Cairo.

Obama, who is returning from a diplomatic tour in Asia, has personally spoken to Morsi three times in the last 24 hours. He commended the Egyptian president’s efforts to ease hostilities between the two sides. 

On Monday Netanyahu reportedly pushed back an Israeli Defense Force (IDF) ground invasion of Gaza by 24-hours in light of his scheduled meeting with Ki-Moon.

Fears that an imminent ground operation was being prepared were stoked after the IDF dropped flyers warning Gaza residents to evacuate “immediately” to Gaza City’s center. The IDF claims the Hamas interior ministry spokesman had urged his listeners to ignore the warnings.

After speaking with ki-Moon, Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman said that any ground incursion into Gaza would not be limited as it was during the 2008-2009 Gaza War.

"This would not be "Operation Cast Lead 2," but "Operation Defensive Shield 2," The Jerusalem Post cites Liberman as saying. 

Despite the potential breakthrough, the violence showed no signs of abating after at least six Palestinians were killed in an airstrike that hit two cars, bringing Tuesday’s death toll to 13.,

At least 125 people have been killed in Gaza, including around 27 children, and four Israelis have also died since Israel began Operation Pillar of Defense with the assassination of Hamas military chief Ahmed Jabari on Wednesday.

Egypt's Morsi: 'Farce of Israeli aggression' against Gaza will end today

The “farce” of Israeli aggression will end on Tuesday, Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi said, expressing certainty that Israelis and Palestinians will shortly reach a ceasefire.

“The efforts to reach a ceasefire between the Palestinians and Israelis will produce positive results within a few hours," state news agency Mena quoted Morsi as saying.

However, President Morsi did not provide any evidence or cite any sources to support his assertions.

The announcement comes ahead of several crucial talks on the Israeli-Gaza conflict held by high-profile international officials.

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has arrived in Israel for peace talks on Tuesday. Later, the UN chief is expected to travel to Gaza to assess the humanitarian situation.

On Tuesday night, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is due in Israel for talks with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. She is also expected to meet with officials from the Palestinian Authority, but not from Hamas, which is considered terrorist organization by the US.

Meanwhile, a delegation of top Arab officials led by Arab League chief Nabil Arabi is in Gaza in a show of solidarity with Palestinians. The delegates arrived through the Rafah border crossing near Egypt, and are set to meet with the Hamas government.

The delegation include representatives from more than 10 countries, including Egypt, Iraq, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Tunisia and Turkey, Hamas officials said.

Egypt-Germany submarine deal on track despite Israeli objections: Sources

As Tel Aviv regime urges Berlin to halt scheduled delivery of German submarines to Egypt, military experts say Cairo must diversify its sources for weapons purchases

While Cairo said it had succeeded over the past year to offset Israel’s efforts to block delivery of German submarines to Egypt based on a deal signed in November of last year, Egyptian sources close to the deal confirm that the agreement was still on track and that Germany would deliver two 902-Class submarines over Israeli objections.

Germany’s ministers of defence and foreign affairs spoke on the issue last week. The deal was a talking point during a visit by German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle to Israel after Tel Aviv complained about the deal. Both Israel’s Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Ehud Barak urged Berlin to freeze the contract out of concern that Egypt’s navy would establish a naval defence platform that could be used against Israel in a future confrontation.

The Israeli politicians reminded Germany of its previous commitment to ensure Israel’s qualitative military superiority and not to export any weapons to states in the region that might threaten Israel’s interests. Germany’s response, which many Israeli newspapers highlighted, was that Germany remained committed to the deal it had signed with Egypt and thus must make the delivery, adding that no one could interfere in German policy regarding such deals.

Egyptian experts agreed that the deal is significant, irrespective of qualitative superiority. Egypt today needs to diversify its weapons sources, according to security expert Major General Sameh Seif El-Yazel, who explained that the 902-Class submarine had fewer capabilities than the Dolphin-Class subs that Israel had received from Germany within the past decade.

Israel reportedly has an agreement with Germany for the new Dolphin-Class submarine, the Tanin, considered the most expensive and efficient sub in the world. According to the agreement, delivery is expected by the end of 2013. Over the past decade, Israel received the same type of submarine from manufacturer HDW, which exclusively manufactures this type of world-renowned submarine.

These submarines can carry Popeye SLCM missiles manufactured by Rafael Advanced Defence Systems, which carry nuclear warheads weighing up to 200kg manufactured at Israel’s Dimona nuclear reactor. The submarine was manufactured in secret in Germany upon Israel’s request with an additional four torpedo tubes for missiles that can hit targets on the ground.

Major General Gamal Mazloum, military expert at the Naif Arab University for Security Sciences in Riyadh, explained that this was not the first time that Israel had tried to block a weapons transfer to Egypt and that Germany was not the only weapons supplier that Tel Aviv had tried to dissuade. Israel had succeeded in stopping dozens of deals with Washington and others in the past, he noted.

Another military expert, Safwat El-Zayyat agreed, adding that Israel had better luck receiving custom-built German subs that could be modified quickly to carry nuclear missiles, have special storage capacity and can run on diesel fuel.

German Defence Minister Thomas de Mesar also rejected Israeli interference in the deal. "No country in the world has the right to veto the decisions of the German government," de Mesar declared, in a clear message to Israel. Although he added that "there is a possibility of Germany supplying," which was not a confirmation of delivery since Cairo has to meet the conditions of the deal. Thus, a commitment by both sides would make the deal a success despite Israel's objections.

Meanwhile, Israel is monitoring developments in Egypt’s navy – and perhaps other branches of the military – according to Mazloum. The problem is that Egypt's development strategies must quickly expand to production, even if it is less than the required efficiency, because it would still be strategically significant, like Iran’s naval industries.

"When there are nearly 200,000 tanks in the Arab region that need routine maintenance and would take us 200 years to keep running using the current mechanism, we will waste a lot of money on deals that Israel will always try interfere with and thwart," he argued. "It does this not on the basis of defence superiority, as it claims, but also to exercise political blackmail to receive grants. It is now blackmailing Germany to receive submarines for free or for little money, or blackmailing Washington for other weapons deals."

Mazloum continued: "Why does Tel Aviv claim that Egypt’s navy is a threat to Israel when it is already qualitatively superior? This is clear blackmail. Our coastline is 30 times longer than Israel, so naturally we should expand our capabilities to cover this size. The job of the naval forces includes protecting more than 2,000km of coastline on the Mediterranean and Red Sea, as well as protecting navigation in the Suez Canal."

Jacky Khoury, an Arab reporter at Israel daily Haaretz, said in exclusive statements that Israel was certainly disturbed by the situation in general because it would change its perception of the strategic and arms balance, since it wants to maintain permanent superiority. Khoury added that, although the issue had received a lot of political attention in Tel Aviv, it had not made headlines in the media, which always focuses on Egyptian matters, such as the domestic scene and developments in Sinai.

According to published weapons reports, Israel is most concerned that, along with the submarine deal, Egypt’s navy has four sophisticated US-made FMC missile boats each weighing 800 tonnes. These boats can travel for long distances and have advanced offensive and defensive capabilities. Egypt also has four Romeo-Class submarines, which are a Sino-Russian prototype that Egypt has modified, adding Harpoon missiles and developed their radar and sonar systems.

Although Egypt’s navy is the smallest of the country’s military branches, it is three time as large as Israel’s – at least in terms of numbers. An expert on Israeli affairs said that that, despite Tel Aviv’s apparent superiority in quality, several Israeli estimates assert that Egypt is strategically far superior. The expert noted that the fate of the deal would ultimately be decided once the final delivery date is announced, since no one can be sure that Berlin will keep its word – especially since Israel is not likely to back down from trying to thwart it.

In the meantime, the deal appears to be being held hostage to political circumstances. Conditions in Egypt today are different; how long will weapons supplies to Egypt remain acceptable to major world powers in light of a civilian regime and a president with an Islamist background? How will the relationship between civilians and the military brass be a decider on armament issues? And how successful will Israel be in exporting its perspective on relations with Egypt to its allies around the world?