The war of words (and occasional
violence) between the Sunni Arabs of Arabia and the Shia Iranians does
have one beneficial angle. Each side accurately accuses the other of
various political crimes and gets these ugly facts out into the open.
Many of the accusations are not made up but are simply accurate accounts
of what is going on. Thus Iran broadcasts details of how the Sunni
states on the Arab side of the Gulf discriminate and generally abuse
their Shia citizens. The Arab media, using equally excellent sources
inside Iran, detail how the religious dictatorship in Iran abuses its
own people. For people on both sides of the Gulf these media battles are
quite informative. Western diplomats and intelligence services also
find this rather large flow of accusations to be most informative.
The war between Shia and Sunni has been going on for over a
thousand years and is normally a low key affair, marked by obscure
theological arguments and lots more social bigotry against the “others.”
Since Shia have always been the minority, they get the worst of it. The
Shia are also more vulnerable because of their custom of revering many
of their notable historical figures with shrines. Sunni call this
blasphemous idolatry and often attack or destroy the shrines and
frequently hide or destroy the corpses of these ancient Shia leaders.
While senior clerics from all sides oppose the desecration of graves,
Sunni holy warriors, and many lower ranking clerics, are not restrained.
Recent Sunni terrorist attacks on Shia shrines in Iraq and Syria has
made it more difficult for Iran to aid al Qaeda (which is basically a
Sunni religious fanatic organization) against their common enemies (the
U.S., the West, current governments in Arabia). Al Qaeda leaders
sometimes try to restrain their followers when it comes to Shia shrines,
but that message does not have much impact at ground level. This is bad
for both Iran and its Sunni neighbors because the street level anger
and hatred will persist long after the leadership agrees to halt the
warmongering.
The U.S. has organized an international mine clearing force in
the Persian Gulf with ships and personnel from 41 nations and is
conducting mine clearing exercises in the Persian Gulf for the rest of
the month. Naval mines are the most effective weapon Iran possesses if
it decides to attack shipping in the Persian Gulf.
Iranian support for Syria in its fight against Sunni rebels is
becoming more obvious. The government is now openly calling for
volunteers to go fight in Syria. So far members of the Quds Force and
others from the armed forces have been ordered to Syria to act as
trainers and advisors. This is considered a survivable assignment, but
Iranian troops fighting alongside Syrian ones is rather more dangerous
and volunteers are being sought. Efforts to get Iraqi Shia to fight in
Syria has not been very successful, in part because that same Syrian
government (led by the Shia minority in Syria) supported the Sunni
terrorists based in Syria after 2003 and helped them get into Iraq to
kill over 50,000 Shia. This is less of an issue in Iran where disdain
for Arabs extends to dead Shia Arabs as well. But many Iranians see this
support of the Syrian dictatorship as something they are being forced
to pay for, with obvious hits to the standard of living for the average
Iranian. For the average Sunni Iraqi Arab, fighting against the Shia
government of Iran is a rather more attractive proposal and over a
thousand Iraqi Sunnis have gone to Syria, while less than a hundred
Iraqi Shia have done so.
Iran has been particularly helpful in equipping and training
the pro-government Syrian militias. The Iranian Quds Force has long
experience in this sort of thing, having organized Hezbollah in Lebanon
30 years ago. Quds is increasingly busy in Syria and now the Iranian
Army has been told to assist with training, or retraining, Syrian
soldiers. The Iranians are believed to be behind the Syrian adoption of
savage new tactics in the fighting around Damascus. These new methods
involve mass killings of civilians, especially military age men, during
daytime raids into pro-rebel villages.
Late last year the Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander
openly bragged that members of the Quds Force were operating in Syria.
Quds has long been Iran's international terrorism support organization.
The Quds Force supplies weapons to the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban as
well as Islamic radicals in Somalia, Iraq and elsewhere. Quds has been
advising Syrian forces on how to deal with the rebels, and occasionally
helping with raids and interrogations. Iran is also bringing in some
badly needed special weapons and equipment. Most of this is coming in by
air via Iraq. Syrian rebels are getting more and more proof of Iranian
aid out to the world. Now the rebels are facing “special troops” trained
and advised by the Iranians.
Iran is also very concerned about its protégé Hezbollah in
Lebanon. This Shia militia is increasingly unpopular in Lebanon and its
support of the Shia Assad government in Syria is not popular in Lebanon
either. Lebanon has been the victim of Assad plots, assassination and
general bad behavior for decades. Hezbollah tries to ignore this, but
most Lebanese don’t.
Iranian efforts to reinforce Hezbollah are being hampered by
Israeli air strikes. The first one was in January but there have been
two more in the last week with Israel hinting that there are more to
come.
Iran has long shipped weapons to Hezbollah via Syria, and with
that route in danger of being cut, more missiles and other military
equipment are being trucked to from Syria to Lebanon. Israel is
determined to halt the movement of these long range missiles and Russian
anti-aircraft systems to Lebanon. Israel has increasingly been working,
usually quietly and unofficially, with Sunni Arab states to oppose
Iranian sponsored terrorism and the Iranian nuclear weapons program. It
appears that some of that cooperation is at work in Syria, where the
principal financial and weapons suppliers for the rebels are Jordan and
Arab Gulf states, some of them long-time silent partners with Israel in
counter-terrorism matters. So far the only air support the Syrian rebels
have received has come from Israel, not NATO. This annoys Iran a great
deal because, as a practical matter, there is nothing Iran can do about
it.
Hezbollah has responded by sending more armed men into Syria
and threatening to openly declare war on the rebels if rebel
interference with Hezbollah convoys does not cease. Hezbollah is less
eager to threaten Israel with retaliation, because the majority of
Lebanese would like to see Hezbollah taken down a notch or two.
Attacking Israel and getting beat up by the Israeli response would do
that. Israel has been openly preparing that response for the last seven
years.
Faced with growing popular discontent over poverty, shortages
(because of the new international oil sales sanctions) and police state
behavior, Iranian clerics are seeking scapegoats. Blaming Israel and the
United States does not work anymore so new culprits are being sought.
Some clerics are blaming these problems on Israelis using magic to force
most nations on the planet to back the new sanctions. Another cleric
blamed recent earthquakes (and other natural disasters) on Iranian women
who wear short skirts, revealing tops and other immodest clothing.
Government officials are claiming that new economic policies
are neutralizing the impact of the new economic sanctions imposed a year
ago. While Iran has adapted, that has not eliminated the pain from
having their oil export income cut 27 percent last year and headed for a
steeper fall this year. Other sanctions have made many import items
difficult to get at any price. Iran says it will manufacture more goods
locally, which will mean more expensive and shoddier replacements for
the imports. The government tries to hide the fact that unemployment and
inflation are going up while family income is declining. The government
has not budged on its refusal to halt its nuclear weapons program. So
the West is increasing sanction enforcement efforts. No one is willing
to go to war with Iran over the matter, so it’s got to be more
non-military pressure or surrender.
May 6, 2013: In Kenya a court sentenced two Iranians to life
in prison for plotting to carry out terror attacks in Kenya. The two
were arrested last year in Kenya and were caught with 15 kg (33 pounds)
of explosives and other bomb making materials. The two were apparently
under orders to attack American or Israeli targets in Kenya. Such
Iranian sponsored terrorism has caused considerable death and
destruction in Kenya in the past.
May 4, 2013: After months of negotiations India has agreed to
spend $100 million to upgrade the Iranian port of Chabahar and Iran
would allow Indian ships to move cargo in and out of Afghanistan via
Iranian roads, railroads, and the port of Chabahar. The Pakistani port
of Gwadar is 72 kilometers east of Chabahar but Indian relations with
Pakistan are too unreliable to allow use of Gwadar (which is now
controlled by Chinese firms). During 2004-9 India spent over $70 million
to build a 218 kilometer highway from Kandahar (the major city in
southwest Afghanistan) to the Iranian border.
That connects to Iranian
roads and railroads that go the thousand kilometers to Chabahar. This
gives Afghanistan easy access to the ocean without going through
Pakistan (and its bandits, corrupt officials, and unreliable politics).
Afghanistan likes having close relations with Pakistan because both
India and Afghanistan have had problems with Pakistani hostility and
support of Islamic terrorists.
