Liwa al-Imam Zain al-Abidain: Building a ‘Resistance’ in Eastern Syria

Banner of Liwa al-Imam Zain al-Abidain. On top: “The Syrian Resistance” (al-muqawama al-suriya). On bottom: Liwa al-Imam Zain al-Abidain (“The Imam Zain al-Abidain Brigade”).

In analysis of militiafication on the Assad regime side, one of the most understudied fronts is that of Deir az-Zor province in eastern Syria, as the regime maintains an outpost in parts of Deir az-Zor city, the military airport and some of the surrounding areas, with no supply routes by land in existence. Despite the regime’s rather precarious situation, the Islamic State (IS) has not yet completely wiped out the regime presence in the way that it took the regime’s isolated bases in Raqqa province by storm in the summer of 2014.

Though reporting commonly just refers to the Syrian army in Deir az-Zor province, there exist a number of supporting militias. The latest of these militias to have been set up on this front is Liwa al-Imam Zain al-Abidain, named for the fourth Shi’i imam. For context, it should be noted that there are a number of militias on the regime side that have adopted the moniker of Zain al-Abidain. For example, there is another Liwa al-Imam Zain al-Abidain that has most notably fought on the Ithiriya front as advertised in late 2015. According to someone who was in the Republican Guard and then joined this Liwa al-Imam Zain al-Abidain, the group was formed around 2-3 years ago. A notable leading figure in this Liwa al-Imam Zain al-Abidain is one Zaher Hasan al-Asad, who is particularly interesting because he is also a member of Mihrac Ural’s group known as The Syrian Resistance (al-muqawama al-suriya), which should not be confused with the Liwa al-Imam Zain al-Abidain of Deir al-Zor that is the main subject of this piece and also bears the moniker of “The Syrian Resistance.” Hasan Zaher al-Asad’s affiliation with Ural’s group was confirmed by a source in the latter last month, who also mentioned that a squadron from Hasan Zaher al-Asad’s Liwa al-Imam Zain al-Abidain was in Aleppo.

The Liwa al-Imam Zain al-Abidain of Zaher Hasan al-Asad. The top of the emblem reads: “The Resistance Support Forces.”

Zaher Hasan al-Asad. Note his insignia from Mihrac Ural’s Muqawama Suriya.

Zaher Hasan al-Asad with his Liwa al-Imam Zain al-Abidain members, posing in front of a banner that reads: “God’s peace be upon you oh Hussein.” The reference is to Imam Hussein, a key figure in Shi’i Islam. 

Indeed, the leader of Liwa al-Imam Zain al-Abidain in Deir az-Zor- a petroleum engineer  by occupation who is originally from Deir az-Zor and goes by the name of Abo Abod- told me that the name of Liwa al-Imam Zain al-Abidain exists among formations in various parts of Syria, including Ithiriya (likely referring to the presence of Zaher Hasan al-Asad’s group), Palmyra and Quneitra. He mentioned this fact in response to a query as to why this name was chosen for the group. He added that there were connections “with all the formations.”

More specifically on his own group in Deir az-Zor, he mentioned that it has been operating for four months (i.e. first set up in May-June 2016). Officially describing his group as independent, he affirmed that it was one of the supporting militias for the regime in Deir az-Zor. By his account, other militias that have participated in fighting on the Deir az-Zor front, according to Abo Abod, have included:

-The National Defence Forces.

The Lions of the Eternal Leader: a militia whose name refers to Hafez al-Assad: affiliated with the Military Intelligence (al-Amn al-Askari: cf. here) and led by al-Hajj Azra’il, originally from the Shi’i village of Nubl in north Aleppo.

The Lions of the Euphrates: affiliated with the Amn al-Dawla (“State Security”) intelligence agency.

The Lions of the East: a tribal militia mainly drawing on Sha’itat tribesmen, who work closely with the Republican Guard and Issam Zahr al-Din, a Druze general in the Republican Guard who plays a leading role on the Deir az-Zor front, having recently returned to the front after a visit to the Quneitra frontlines that currently involve a rebel offensive that has pushed towards the area of the Druze village of Hadr, prompting a large Druze mobilization to defend the area. Together, under Zahr al-Din, members of the Republican Guard and members of the Lions of the East constitute the Majmu’at Nafidh Assad Allah (“Nafidh Assad Allah Group,” referring to a nickname for Zahr al-Din).

The Ba’ath Brigades.

al-Hashd al-Sha’abi: “Popular Mobilization”- undoubtedly taking its name from Iraq’s militia phenomenon that goes under this moniker- but not related, rather affiliated with the Syrian regime’s military commander for Deir az-Zor city.

Lebanon’s Hezbollah.

This list of auxiliary forces more or less correlates with that compiled by the anti-IS and anti-regime group Deir az-Zor is Being Slaughtered Silently (DZBSS). Most notably, DZBSS correctly points out in addition the role of the Palestinian militia Quwat al-Jalil (“The Galilee Forces”), which actually claims the bulk of its ‘martyrs’ from fighting in Deir az-Zor. Despite some occasional claims that have surfaced on social media, little reliable evidence points to the presence of Iraqi Shi’i factions on the Deir az-Zor front, something denied by Abo Abod. It should also be noted that Abo Abod clarified that the Lions of the Euphrates militia has been dissolved by the Amn al-Dawla, with fighters distributed to other formations. According to him, al-Hashd al-Sha’abi has also been dissolved.

As might be expected, Liwa al-Imam Zain al-Abidain in Deir az-Zor primarily draws on local people from Deir az-Zor as recruits, though Abo Abod was keen to emphasize as wide a manpower base as possible in terms of origins, claiming fighters from Albukamal (in eastern Deir az-Zor on the border with Iraq), Raqqa, Hasakah, Qamishli Damascus and Deraa. He put the monthly salary per fighter at $200, which he said was partly used to support civilians in Deir az-Zor. Concomitant with the wide range of origins, Abo Abod was also keen to put forth a cross-sectarian image for his group. “Do you know that I have Christian youth in the brigade?” he asked rhetorically in a bid to impress me. He added that “some of them are from al-Deir [Deir az-Zor] and some have come down with me from al-Sham [Damascus].”

The photo of Abo Abod above, with the “Labbayk ya Hussein” (“At your service, oh Hussein”) insignia, may raise the question as to whether he is Shi’i himself. To this question, he gave a rather interesting response: “I belong to all sects. I wage war on all who wage war on the Shi’a. I serve [/revere] the Al Bayt [Prophet Muhammad’s family] and my lineage is Husseini.” He then elaborated: “Do you know that Deir az-Zor is Shi’i in character? The black abaya, the al-Abbas bread, Allah wa Ali, all of them are from the customs of the people of al-Deir.”

These kinds of remarks touch on an issue I raised in my previous article profiling Liwa Sayf al-Haq Assad Allah al-Ghalib, a militia affiliated with the Republican Guard and based in Sayyida Zainab in Damascus. That is, whether or not there is formal conversion to Shi’i Islam, many pro-regime militias have displayed increasing affinities with Shi’i Islam and associated slogans and symbols, undoubtedly influenced by the extensive intervention of Iran and client Shi’i militias in Syria. Indeed, as Abo Abod told me, “The youth I have- Sunni before Shi’i- have adopted Labbayk ya Hussein, out of love and desire. We in the brigade deal with each other as one family and one house. Muhammad is our Prophet, Ali is our lord, Hussein is our leader….All demanded it [the slogans/symbols]. They said: ‘Hussein, Ali, Zainab and Fatima- peace be upon them- are our lords.'”

Photo of a person bearing the Liwa al-Imam Zain al-Abidain flag.

So far, Abo Abod only claims 5 ‘martyrs’ for his formation, a recent example being one Nasim Muhammad al-Hamid, killed in fighting to retake Tel Baruq near the 137th brigade base. In the recent U.S. airstrikes in Deir az-Zor that erroneously targeted regime positions, there were no reported or confirmed deaths for the ranks of Liwa al-Imam Zain al-Abidain.

Analytically, it could be as my friend Tobias Schneider suggests to me that Liwa al-Imam Zain al-Abidain is a project analogous to Hezbollah’s Saraya al-Muqawama (“The Resistance Brigades”) project in Lebanon that is designed to outreach to non-Shi’i constituencies. Though Abo Abod said his group is independent, such a claim should probably be taken as formal distancing. In any case, the study of this militia in Deir az-Zor offers useful insight into regime dependency on auxiliary fighting forces even out on this front, and how apparent cross-sectarianism can still contribute to antagonistic sectarian dichotomies.

Kano arms cache belongs to Hezbollah

Director of Department of State Services, DSS, in Kano, Mr. Bassey Etang, has said the weapons of mass destruction discovered in a bunker at a Lebanese residence in Kano, Tuesday, belong to international terrorist organisation, Hezbollah.

Etang spoke to newsmen in Kano, during a joint conference with the Commandant of the 3 Motorised Division in Kano, Brigadier-General Iliyasu Abba, at the scene of the discovery in Bompai area of the Kano metropolis.

He said: “The weapons were brought in by an international terrorist organisation, Hezbollah, to attack Israeli and Western interest in Nigeria.

“On May 28, a combined team of the JTF involving the army of the 3 Brigade in Kano and the Kano state DSS conducted a thorough search on this house located at No 3 Gaya Road, off Bompai Road, Kano, belonging to one Abdul Hassan Taher Fadlalla, a Lebanese, who is currently out of the country.

“After painstakingly searching the premises, the search team uncovered an underground bunker in the master bed room, where a large quantity of assorted weapons of different types and caliber were recovered. The bunker was specially constructed for this purpose.”

Taking stock

On his part, the Commandant, Brigadier Abba, said the weapons of mass destruction include 11, 50mm anti-tank weapons, two 122mm artillery gun ammunition, four anti-tank landmines, 21 rocket-propelled grenades, RPG, 16 rocket-propelled grenades charger, one rocket-propelled grenade tube and 76 military grenade.

Others are one SMG rifle, nine pistols, 17 AK-47 rifles, 44 magazines, 11,433 rounds of 7.62mm special ammunition and 103 packet of slap TNT.

Brigadier Abba further revealed that “investigation also confirms the existence of a Hezbollah Foreign Terrorist Cell in Nigeria.

Arrest

On May 16, DSS arrested one Mustapha Fawaz the co-owner of the popular Amigo Supermarket and Wonderland Amusement Park, all in Abuja.

His arrest and confession unveiled other members of the foreign terrorists network, which led to the interception of one member of the syndicate named Abdullah Tahini, a Lebanese, at the Mallam Aminu Kano International Airport with undeclared 60,000 United States Dollars on him en-route Beirut.

Thereafter, on May 26 one Talal Roda, also a Lebanese with Nigerian passport, was arrested in this same house.

According to the Brigade Commander, all the arrested suspects have confessed to have undergone Hezbollah terrorist training and further implicated one Fauzi Fawad, also a co-owner of Amigo Supermarket and Wonderland Amusement Park.

He said: “The fellow is now at large. The arms and ammunition were targeted at facilities of Israel and Western interest in Nigeria.

“However, the security agencies are making efforts to unveil the true situation. At the end of investigation, all those involved will be prosecuted.”

Iran - Raiders of the Lost Cash

Earlier this year Iran began allowing Syria to buy Iranian supplies and have them shipped in via truck through Iraq or via ship to Syrian ports. To make this work Iran gave Syria a billion dollar line of credit, which has now been increased to $4 billion. This was a gift and Syria hoped to get over a hundred million dollars-worth of goods a month from Iran. The actual amount coming in has been lower because of rebel interference. Without this aid, the government forces will disappear much more quickly. Sanctions have made it difficult to buy supplies from its usual foreign providers. The Iraq route has become more risky, as Iraqi Sunnis have been harassing and blocking these shipments. Moreover most of eastern Syria is Sunni and under the control of rebels. But with the help of bribes (cash or goods) a few routes are kept clear by government troops and many trucks do get through.

 Iraq is also helping by recently deploying 20,000 troops to the Syrian border and attacking Syrian rebel bases on the Iraqi side of the frontier and guarding the roads in western Iraq (which is largely Sunni, often tribes with kin across the border in Syria). The sea route is still the safest but it takes nearly a week longer. The Iranian financial aid is desperately needed in Syria, where the local currency is rapidly losing its value (going from 50 Syrian pounds a dollar to 150 in two years) and the Iranian currency (the rial) is not much better. But if the Iranians can get goods into Syria, that is a big help.

 

Russia is allied with Iran in supporting the Assads and is trying to organize a peace conference. Iran is willing to participate, as are the Assads, but there is no unity among rebel factions on the usefulness of such confrontations. Despite the recent help from Hezbollah and disagreements among the rebels, the Assads are still in big trouble. 

 

Hezbollah has become increasingly vocal about its support for the Assad government in Syria. Iran has apparently ordered its protégé Hezbollah (a Shia militia in Lebanon) to openly side with the Assad government in Syria. Thousands of Hezbollah gunmen are now being moved to the Syrian border and many are already fighting inside Syria. There, the rebels have been reporting increasing Hezbollah involvement for months, but until this month Hezbollah officially denied any such involvement. That was because the Arab world is largely united in its opposition to the Assads. Not so much because they are Shia but because they are bloody tyrants and toadies to the hated (by most Arabs) Iranians. For over two decades Hezbollah has made a reputation in the Arab world as someone who will stand up to Israel. Hating Israel has been a popular activity in the Arab world since the 1940s, but the popularity is beginning to wane. While Hezbollah got respect for its anti-Israel activities, that is at risk as Hezbollah openly sides with the Assads. To make matters worse, this move increases anti-Hezbollah sentiment inside Lebanon. Hezbollah has always represented the minority Shia of Lebanon and done so with increasing brutality (in order to bully the majority non-Shia population into submission). Now the non-Shia are becoming more aggressive against Hezbollah. 

The main reason for making this move in Syria is the fact that Iran bankrolls Hezbollah (and the Assads) and has promised to give Hezbollah modern Russian anti-ship, anti-tank, and anti-aircraft missile systems currently in Syria or soon to arrive from Syria or Russia. Iran denies having any troops in Syria, but there is considerable evidence of several hundred advisors and instructors, many apparently from the Quds Force (an elite outfit that provides aid to pro-Iran terrorists and rebels worldwide).

The oil trade sanctions on Iran have proven difficult to get around, and the U.S. and other Western nations enforcing the sanctions keep countering Iranian moves to get around the fiscal and trade restrictions. For example, India has long been a major customer for Iranian oil but shipments to India fell 26 percent last year and that decline continues. Indians prefer to get oil from nearby Iran, but sending payment to Iran has proven more and more difficult. Skirting the banking restrictions risks sanctions on the offenders (Indian importers). In response Iran keeps adding new incentives. In addition to lower prices and ship insurance (now banned for Iran internationally) Iran is now offering to build an underwater pipeline (along the coast, to avoid Pakistan) to transport oil and gas to India. 

This is not an attractive option as it is long term and the sanctions are likely to get worse. Iran needs more oil revenue now. While Iran puts a up a brave front, they are hurting economically. Losing over $5 billion in oil revenue monthly, Iranian GDP is believed to have fallen 5-10 percent in the last year. 

Unemployment and inflation are up, as is dissatisfaction with the growing shortages of imported goods. The U.S. plans to make it worse, with new sanctions (beginning July 1^st) banning gold sales to Iran (which has been using gold to pay for imports). 

Iran has not taken all this passively, as the U.S. reports that a growing number of hacker attacks on American banks and utilities (power, sewage, and water operations) are coming from Iran. Some of these attacks are quite skilled, indicating that Iranian hackers have gotten much better recently or that Iran has been hiring mercenaries to carry out these attacks. Such hacker mercs are available but may back away if the U.S. begins to hunt down and arrest them as terrorists. 

 

May 26, 2013: Iran released photos of over a dozen 16 wheel TEL (Transporter Erector Launcher) vehicles for two or three stage ballistic missile. These recently delivered (from Iranian factories) TELs are vehicles built to carry, then erect and survive the launch of a ballistic missile. The new Iranian TELs were based on trucks designed to haul non-military cargo, but Iran often employs "dual-use" technologies that can easily be adapted to military use. Large trucks modified to be TELs are often not real TELs. There are a lot of manufacturers out there who build huge (12-20 wheel) trucks, and these are often used to carry military equipment (like 50-70 ton tanks). A 12-50 ton ballistic missile is no problem, but installing the hydraulic gear and controls to erect the missile to a vertical position is tricky. Even more difficult is hardening the rear of the vehicle to minimize the damage from the rocket exhaust. This last bit can be dropped if you only expect to use these TELs once for a live fire. The 16 wheel Iranian TELs may be "use once and abandon the trailer" models. 

 

May 24, 2013: Iran denied that the wreckage of a UAV found (two weeks ago) in shallow water off Bahrain was of Iranian origin. But photos of the wreckage (in shallow water) are clearly of a UAV design used by Iran. Bahrain, and the Arab League, continue to feud with Iran over Iranian claims to own Bahrain and support for Shia Bahraini seeking to overthrow the Sunni monarchy there. 

 

May 21, 2013: The senior clerics (the “Guardians Council”) declared that only eight candidates (all of them known loyalists to the clerical dictatorship) would be allowed to run in the June 14^th presidential election. Some 30 female candidates were also banned and the senior clerics declared that women could not run the country under any circumstances. This move was directed at several troublesome candidates who might have won. This even included a senior cleric, Ayatollah Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who had served as president before (1989-1997) but was known to favor reforms. Current president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad cannot run again and his personal favorite candidate was also banned. 

 

Iran denied any involvement with the ten people (eight Saudis, a Lebanese, and a Turk) Saudi Arabia recently arrested and charged with spying for Iran. The latest arrests were the result of information obtained from some of the 17 similar arrests made two months ago (16 Saudis and one Iranian). Iran denied any connection with the earlier group as well. 

 

May 20, 2013: Two weapons smuggling gangs were declared destroyed. One had brought weapons in from Afghanistan and the other group moved weapons in from Iraq. 

 

May 19, 2013: Two convicted spies were executed. The government said the two worked for the United States and Israel but few details were available and the United States denied involvement and Israel refused to comment. 

 

May 13, 2013: An international fleet of 34 warships, led by a British officer, began conducting mine-clearing exercises in the Persian Gulf. This is a continuation of U.S. organized series of international mine clearing exercises. The force in the Persian Gulf has ships and personnel from 41 nations and has been conducting mine clearing exercises in the Persian Gulf all month. Naval mines are the most effective weapon Iran possesses if it decides to attack shipping in the Persian Gulf.

Will Israel destroy Russian missiles?

The main reason for the heightened tensions on the northern front is Iran and Syria's interest to intensify and hasten the arming of Hezbollah. Tehran apparently believes the West's patience is running out quickly and that by the end of the first half of 2013, or by the end of the year, Washington or Jerusalem – or both – will decide on a military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities.

The Iranians want to deter Israel and the Western nations from making such a decision by threats of mass casualties and devastation in the Israeli home front. Tehran plans to realize this threat with the use of Hezbollah and Syria's huge missile and rocket arsenal. Particularly important for the Iranians is Hezbollah's arsenal, which is protected from a ground invasion and is deployed in the heart of a supportive population in south Lebanon.

 While Syria has a far larger amount of rockets and missiles, it is difficult to gauge how many of them will actually work when Iran will need them most. Therefore, Iran is looking to beef up Hezbollah's arsenal with as many accurate and devastating advanced long-term rockets as possible - rockets such as the Fateh-110, which are capable of reaching the Tel Aviv metropolitan area and even further south.

A significant amount of such rockets would allow Hezbollah to fire a relatively large number of them simultaneously. Assad does not possess any spare rockets or missiles to give Hezbollah so it may threaten Israel's cities. The Assad regime needs its missiles in the fight against Syrian citizens who are assisting the rebels.

However, Hezbollah would very much like to get its hands on Assad's Yakhont anti-ship cruise missiles, which pose a major threat to Israeli Navy vessels and gas fields located up to 300 kilometers (186 miles) from the coast. According to the New York Times, Russia has apparently transferred to Syria recently an improved version of the missile, outfitted with an advanced guidance system that makes them more accurate than the older version. 

Assad also has an interest in supplying Hezbollah with advanced, mobile anti-aircraft missile batteries that can protect the Lebanese Shiite group's surface-to-surface missiles and cause heavy casualties to the Israeli Air Force that will try to take them out. 

Therefore, Iran and Syria currently have a common goal: Bolster Hezbollah's rocket and missile arsenal while making it more resilient to Israeli airstrikes. 

Israel apparently has no intention of allowing Khamenei and Assad to intensify the threat already posed to the Israeli home front, and it does not plan on allowing Hezbollah to diminish the IDF's ability to quickly neutralize this threat if needed. 

This "red line," it has been reported, has been implemented by Israel three times as of late – when it bombed a convoy en route to Lebanon and when it attacked missiles stored in Syrian warehouses ahead of their transfer to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Syria, Iran and Hezbollah each had its own reasons not to respond to these attacks in the short term. 

The question is – what will happen next time? Assad has apparently not given up on his plan to supply Hezbollah with "deterrence diminishing" weapons as a reward for the Shiite group's assistance in his regime's battle for survival. Assad also wants Hezbollah to safeguard his strategic weapons systems so they will not fall into rebel hands.

This is why the West estimates Israel will apparently be forced to attack - perhaps in the near future - additional arms shipments making their way from Iran to Hezbollah via Syria. It is also estimated that Assad would have to respond, despite the fact that he has almost no effective retaliation options. The Syrian army, in its current state, cannot attack us on the ground, and if it fires missiles toward Israel's home front, Israel will destroy most of the Assad regime's military assets, and other assets, which are crucial for its continued survival.

Therefore, Assad will try to attack Israel indirectly in a way that will not draw a harsh Israeli response. One possibility is a terror attack against an Israeli target abroad. However, the preparations for such an attack, with the cooperation of Iran's Revolutionary Guard and Hezbollah's special unit, may take a long time. 

In addition, such an attack would most likely be thwarted by Israeli intelligence. In any case, the effect of such a Syrian response would not be worth the effort. The other, more effective option is to shatter the calm that has prevailed in the Golan Heights for the past 40 years.

The Syrians realize that the calm in the Golan is a sensitive subject in Israeli politics and public opinion. The near hysteric reports in Israel that follow the landing in the area of every stray mortar shell fired by the Syrian army or the rebels, or the reports on the UN's plans to withdraw its forces from the territory - are a testament to this.

Assad, Khamenei and Nasrallah have apparently reached the conclusion that the Golan Heights is the soft spot which can be used to effectively deter Israel from thwarting arms transfers to Hezbollah. Syria, Iran and Hezbollah have issued numerous threats clarifying that the response to additional Israeli strikes will be "strategic…in the Golan." The bottom line: Assad will allow Hezbollah to operate in the Golan, and should Israel attack the transfer of "deterrence diminishing" weapons in Syria or Lebanon, the lives of Israelis in the Golan will be similar to the lives of Israelis residing in communities bordering the Gaza Strip. 

Israel will not be able to respond with full force because the terror attack may not be on a large enough scale to justify confining Israel's citizens to shelters for a period of a few weeks or because the identity of those who carry it out will not be clear. This would make it difficult for Israel to garner international support for a forceful military response.

Assad and Hezbollah's threat on the Golan Heights puts the ball back in the Israeli court and makes the dilemma all the more difficult: How will Israel respond the next time a shipment of advanced weapons makes its way from Syria to Lebanon? For now, Jerusalem (which is coordinating its strategy with Washington) is not blinking. 

To make Israel's intentions clear, a senior official told the New York Times Israel does not plan on intervening in favor of the rebels, but it will not allow Syria and Iran to transfer "game-changing" weapons to Hezbollah. 

The Israeli official stressed that any Syrian retaliation to an Israeli attack will cause Israel to topple Assad's regime. How? By attacking what is left of his army and other assets that allow for the Alawite regime's continued survival. More importantly, Israel will destroy the assets the regime plans to use in order to create an Alawite enclave that will be connected to the Hezbollah-controlled Bekaa Valley in Lebanon. 

Such an enclave in the Mediterranean Basin is crucial not only for Assad and his sect, but also for the Iranians and the Russians, who want to preserve their interests in Syria. An Alawite enclave would serve this purpose well, and this is why the Iranians are setting up an international Shiite force that will fight alongside the Alawites in the enclave and outside of it and also help Assad maintain control over Damascus. The Russians, for their part, wish to hold on to facilities in the port of Tartus, which is situated at the center of the future Alawite enclave. 

Israel made it clear to Assad and his patrons that any attacks in the Golan will dash their hopes of creating a coastal sanctuary in the Alawite enclave. 

The Russians are reading the map well and are aware that in the current situation Assad does not have the means to deter Israel from attacking Hezbollah-bound arms convoys. This is why Putin's aides – in order to deter Israel and the Americans from attacking in Syria - leaked to the press that Moscow will finally transfer to Syria three S-300 missile batteries. The original agreement for the transfer of long-range (200 kilometers, or 124 miles) missiles was signed some three years ago –before the revolt against Assad erupted. Russia has already received some of the payments, but the missiles have not been transferred to Syria due to American and Israeli pressure on the Kremlin not to supply the Assad regime with these missiles, as they may fall into Hezbollah's hands and undermine regional balance - because the Israeli Air Force would be forced to act in Lebanon before these missiles hinder its ability to operate there. 

Medvedev, the Russian president at the time, was convinced, and he decided to freeze the agreement in 2010, but he did not cancel it. Nothing has changed since then, but Putin wants to use this arms deal to force Netanyahu to guarantee that Israel will not attack Syria and threaten the regime there. The Russian president apparently wants a similar commitment from Obama. It is safe to assume that Netanyahu did not give such a guarantee to Putin when the two met on the eve of the Shavuot holiday in Sochi. This is why Putin is refusing to promise that he will not transfer the advanced missiles to Syria. This impasse led to the vague statements made by Foreign Minister Lavrov and Putin's spokesman Peskov, from which we can understand that Russia plans to transfer the S-300 missiles to Syria, despite the fact that the two senior officials did not specifically say so. Based on Russia's conduct in recent years, it may very well delay the arms transfer.

 The Russians certainly do not want to see their rockets fall into the hands of Islamist Syria rebels or force Israel to attack and destroy the missiles in order to restore its freedom to operate in Lebanese and Syrian airspace.

This issue was discussed during the meeting between Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon and CIA director John Brennan, who made a surprise visit to Israel. The two also discussed Iran.
In the meantime, it is safe to assume that Syria and Hezbollah will not rush to act against Israel in the Golan or along the Lebanese border, mainly because Iran has an interest in keeping Hezbollah and Syria's rocket and missile arsenals ready for action in order to deter Israel and the US from attacking its nuclear facilities. This interest will remain relevant for at least another six months, perhaps even more. Therefore, Iran will advise Assad to act with restraint, for now, even if Israel strikes Hezbollah-bound arms convoys.

The Air War Over Syria

Israel says it does not want to get involved in the Syrian rebellion and only launched two recent air strikes on Syria to prevent Iranian weapons from being moved to southern Lebanon, where Hezbollah could use them against Israel. The Syrian rebels have been asking NATO, or anyone, to provide them with air support. So far NATO is not willing and pro-rebel Arab states believe they are not able.

 

The two weapons involved here were Pantsir-S1 anti-aircraft systems and Fateh-110 long range rockets. The Pantsir-S1 anti-aircraft system missiles would make it more difficult (but not impossible) for Israeli aircraft and helicopters to operate over Hezbollah controlled territory. These Russian systems, which are mounted on an 8x8 truck, were bought by Syria with Iranian money and some were shipped to Iran. Each Pantsir-S1 vehicle carries radar, two 30mm cannon, and twelve Tunguska missiles. The 90 kg (198 pound) Tunguska has a twenty kilometer range while the Pantsir-S1 radar has a 30 kilometer range. The missile can hit targets at up to 8,400 meters (26,000 feet) high. The 30mm cannon are effective up to 3,200 meters (10,000 feet). The vehicles used to carry all the Pantsir-S1 can vary, but the most common one used weighs 20 tons and has a crew of three. 

 

The longer ranged Fateh-110 rockets are also a serious matter. Three years ago Israel told Syria that if Hezbollah used the new Fateh-110 missiles that they were receiving from Syria Israel would bomb Syria. The three ton, solid fuel, ballistic missiles have a range of 250 kilometers and carries a half ton warhead. These longer range missiles, that can reach all of Israel’s major cities, are a primary target for Israeli forces in any future war with Hezbollah.

 

Syria responded to these Israeli attacks by threatening retaliation, but there’s not much Syria can do at this point except make threats. Meanwhile Israeli troops are increasingly seen training near the Lebanese and Syrian borders. Israel believes Iran might order Hezbollah to attack Israel in order to help the beleaguered Assad government in Syria. This would be a desperation measure, but the Israelis are preparing for the worst. 

 

Egypt has condemned Israeli air strikes in Syria but has otherwise sought to keep things quiet on the Israeli border and especially in Gaza. Egypt is still concerned about anti-Egyptian Islamic terrorists in Sinai, and the sanctuary some of those terrorists seem to still enjoy in Gaza. Egypt also revealed that in the last two years it has discovered 276 smuggling tunnels from Gaza and destroyed 56 percent of them. This is an improvement on the Mubarak government that was deposed two years ago. Now the Egyptians are making more efforts to halt the smuggling of weapons and terrorists in and out of Gaza via the tunnels. 

 

Responding to Israeli pressure, Hamas has shifted more of its security forces to shutting down the smaller and more radical Islamic terrorist groups and suppressing popular demonstrations against Hamas rule in Gaza.  Israeli officials revealed that they have been quietly holding regular meetings with Hamas to discuss security matters and coordinate efforts against groups that continue to launch rocket and mortar attacks on Israel. 

 

May 7, 2013: In Sinai police arrested a man suspected of being an informant for Israel. This is the sixth such arrest in the last month. 

 

In Syria, near the Israeli border, four UN peacekeepers were seized by Islamic radical rebels in the area. The rebels said they did this to prevent nearby Syrian soldiers from harming the peacekeepers. This appears to be another attempt to intimidate the peacekeepers, who are supposed to keep an eye on what’s going on near the Israeli border (which the UN watches as part of the peace deal with Syria after the 1973 war.)

 

May 5, 2013: Israeli warplanes destroyed several targets in Syria. One was a weapons development compound outside Damascus and this triggered much larger explosions indicating that the Israeli missile had set off weapons (perhaps Fateh-110 rockets and their warheads) being stored there.

 

May 3, 2013: Israeli warplanes destroyed several targets in Syria. 

 

May 2, 2013: In Gaza Islamic terrorists fired two rockets at Israel, at the same time Hamas was arresting more Islamic terrorists believed responsible for ceasefire violations. Near the Gaza border Egyptian police seized 40 new BMW automobiles on trailers that were apparently about to be smuggled into Gaza (via bribes). Police received a tip that a major Egyptian businessman, heavily involved with smuggling goods into Gaza, was going to sneak the cars into Gaza (where there is a growing market for luxury goods. All that foreign aid doesn’t just go for food and medicine.)

 

April 30, 2013:  An Israeli air strike in Gaza killed an Islamic terrorist (Haitham Ziyad al Mishal) who was apparently behind the firing of two rockets at the southern Israel city Eilat on April 17th. Mishal was known as an expert on building and firing rockets as well as organizing rocket attacks. 

Mishal was one of the guys Hamas was trying to calm down and not keep breaking the Hamas ceasefire with Israel. Hamas did not express much happiness at the death of Mishal. This air attack was technically in response to a mortar shell being fired into Israel from Gaza yesterday but was a single missile fired at Mishal as he was on a motorcycle in sparsely populated northern Gaza.

Iran - Helpless Against Israeli Air Power

The war of words (and occasional violence) between the Sunni Arabs of Arabia and the Shia Iranians does have one beneficial angle. Each side accurately accuses the other of various political crimes and gets these ugly facts out into the open. Many of the accusations are not made up but are simply accurate accounts of what is going on. Thus Iran broadcasts details of how the Sunni states on the Arab side of the Gulf discriminate and generally abuse their Shia citizens. The Arab media, using equally excellent sources inside Iran, detail how the religious dictatorship in Iran abuses its own people. For people on both sides of the Gulf these media battles are quite informative. Western diplomats and intelligence services also find this rather large flow of accusations to be most informative.

 

The war between Shia and Sunni has been going on for over a thousand years and is normally a low key affair, marked by obscure theological arguments and lots more social bigotry against the “others.” Since Shia have always been the minority, they get the worst of it. The Shia are also more vulnerable because of their custom of revering many of their notable historical figures with shrines. Sunni call this blasphemous idolatry and often attack or destroy the shrines and frequently hide or destroy the corpses of these ancient Shia leaders. While senior clerics from all sides oppose the desecration of graves, Sunni holy warriors, and many lower ranking clerics, are not restrained. Recent Sunni terrorist attacks on Shia shrines in Iraq and Syria has made it more difficult for Iran to aid al Qaeda (which is basically a Sunni religious fanatic organization) against their common enemies (the U.S., the West, current governments in Arabia). Al Qaeda leaders sometimes try to restrain their followers when it comes to Shia shrines, but that message does not have much impact at ground level. This is bad for both Iran and its Sunni neighbors because the street level anger and hatred will persist long after the leadership agrees to halt the warmongering. 

 

The U.S. has organized an international mine clearing force in the Persian Gulf with ships and personnel from 41 nations and is conducting mine clearing exercises in the Persian Gulf for the rest of the month. Naval mines are the most effective weapon Iran possesses if it decides to attack shipping in the Persian Gulf.  

 

Iranian support for Syria in its fight against Sunni rebels is becoming more obvious. The government is now openly calling for volunteers to go fight in Syria. So far members of the Quds Force and others from the armed forces have been ordered to Syria to act as trainers and advisors. This is considered a survivable assignment, but Iranian troops fighting alongside Syrian ones is rather more dangerous and volunteers are being sought. Efforts to get Iraqi Shia to fight in Syria has not been very successful, in part because that same Syrian government (led by the Shia minority in Syria) supported the Sunni terrorists based in Syria after 2003 and helped them get into Iraq to kill over 50,000 Shia. This is less of an issue in Iran where disdain for Arabs extends to dead Shia Arabs as well. But many Iranians see this support of the Syrian dictatorship as something they are being forced to pay for, with obvious hits to the standard of living for the average Iranian. For the average Sunni Iraqi Arab, fighting against the Shia government of Iran is a rather more attractive proposal and over a thousand Iraqi Sunnis have gone to Syria, while less than a hundred Iraqi Shia have done so. 

 

Iran has been particularly helpful in equipping and training the pro-government Syrian militias. The Iranian Quds Force has long experience in this sort of thing, having organized Hezbollah in Lebanon 30 years ago. Quds is increasingly busy in Syria and now the Iranian Army has been told to assist with training, or retraining, Syrian soldiers. The Iranians are believed to be behind the Syrian adoption of savage new tactics in the fighting around Damascus. These new methods involve mass killings of civilians, especially military age men, during daytime raids into pro-rebel villages.

Late last year the Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander openly bragged that members of the Quds Force were operating in Syria. Quds has long been Iran's international terrorism support organization. The Quds Force supplies weapons to the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban as well as Islamic radicals in Somalia, Iraq and elsewhere. Quds has been advising Syrian forces on how to deal with the rebels, and occasionally helping with raids and interrogations. Iran is also bringing in some badly needed special weapons and equipment. Most of this is coming in by air via Iraq. Syrian rebels are getting more and more proof of Iranian aid out to the world. Now the rebels are facing “special troops” trained and advised by the Iranians.

 

Iran is also very concerned about its protégé Hezbollah in Lebanon. This Shia militia is increasingly unpopular in Lebanon and its support of the Shia Assad government in Syria is not popular in Lebanon either. Lebanon has been the victim of Assad plots, assassination and general bad behavior for decades. Hezbollah tries to ignore this, but most Lebanese don’t. 

 

Iranian efforts to reinforce Hezbollah are being hampered by Israeli air strikes. The first one was in January but there have been two more in the last week with Israel hinting that there are more to come. 

Iran has long shipped weapons to Hezbollah via Syria, and with that route in danger of being cut, more missiles and other military equipment are being trucked to from Syria to Lebanon. Israel is determined to halt the movement of these long range missiles and Russian anti-aircraft systems to Lebanon. Israel has increasingly been working, usually quietly and unofficially, with Sunni Arab states to oppose Iranian sponsored terrorism and the Iranian nuclear weapons program. It appears that some of that cooperation is at work in Syria, where the principal financial and weapons suppliers for the rebels are Jordan and Arab Gulf states, some of them long-time silent partners with Israel in counter-terrorism matters. So far the only air support the Syrian rebels have received has come from Israel, not NATO. This annoys Iran a great deal because, as a practical matter, there is nothing Iran can do about it.

Hezbollah has responded by sending more armed men into Syria and threatening to openly declare war on the rebels if rebel interference with Hezbollah convoys does not cease. Hezbollah is less eager to threaten Israel with retaliation, because the majority of Lebanese would like to see Hezbollah taken down a notch or two. Attacking Israel and getting beat up by the Israeli response would do that. Israel has been openly preparing that response for the last seven years. 

 

Faced with growing popular discontent over poverty, shortages (because of the new international oil sales sanctions) and police state behavior, Iranian clerics are seeking scapegoats. Blaming Israel and the United States does not work anymore so new culprits are being sought. Some clerics are blaming these problems on Israelis using magic to force most nations on the planet to back the new sanctions. Another cleric blamed recent earthquakes (and other natural disasters) on Iranian women who wear short skirts, revealing tops and other immodest clothing. 

 

Government officials are claiming that new economic policies are neutralizing the impact of the new economic sanctions imposed a year ago. While Iran has adapted, that has not eliminated the pain from having their oil export income cut 27 percent last year and headed for a steeper fall this year. Other sanctions have made many import items difficult to get at any price. Iran says it will manufacture more goods locally, which will mean more expensive and shoddier replacements for the imports. The government tries to hide the fact that unemployment and inflation are going up while family income is declining. The government has not budged on its refusal to halt its nuclear weapons program. So the West is increasing sanction enforcement efforts. No one is willing to go to war with Iran over the matter, so it’s got to be more non-military pressure or surrender.  

 

May 6, 2013: In Kenya a court sentenced two Iranians to life in prison for plotting to carry out terror attacks in Kenya. The two were arrested last year in Kenya and were caught with 15 kg (33 pounds) of explosives and other bomb making materials. The two were apparently under orders to attack American or Israeli targets in Kenya. Such Iranian sponsored terrorism has caused considerable death and destruction in Kenya in the past. 

 

May 4, 2013: After months of negotiations India has agreed to spend $100 million to upgrade the Iranian port of Chabahar and Iran would allow Indian ships to move cargo in and out of Afghanistan via Iranian roads, railroads, and the port of Chabahar. The Pakistani port of Gwadar is 72 kilometers east of Chabahar but Indian relations with Pakistan are too unreliable to allow use of Gwadar (which is now controlled by Chinese firms). During 2004-9 India spent over $70 million to build a 218 kilometer highway from Kandahar (the major city in southwest Afghanistan) to the Iranian border. 

That connects to Iranian roads and railroads that go the thousand kilometers to Chabahar. This gives Afghanistan easy access to the ocean without going through Pakistan (and its bandits, corrupt officials, and unreliable politics). Afghanistan likes having close relations with Pakistan because both India and Afghanistan have had problems with Pakistani hostility and support of Islamic terrorists.

Israeli military shoots down suspected Hezbollah drone

Israel shot down a drone Thursday as it approached the country's northern coast, the military said. Suspicion immediately fell on the Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon. 

The incident was likely to raise already heightened tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, a bitter enemy that battled Israel to a stalemate during a monthlong war in 2006.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who was in northern Israel at the time of the incident, said he viewed the infiltration attempt with "utmost gravity."

"We will continue to do everything necessary in order to protect the security of the citizens of Israel," he said.

Lt. Col. Peter Lerner, a military spokesman, said the unmanned aircraft was detected as it was flying over Lebanon and tracked as it approached Israeli airspace.

Lerner said the military waited for the aircraft to enter Israeli airspace, confirmed it was "enemy," and an F-16 warplane shot it down.

The drone was flying at an altitude of about 6,000 feet and was downed roughly five miles off the Israeli coast near the northern city of Haifa. Lerner said Israeli naval forces were searching for the remains of the aircraft.

He declined to say who sent the drone. But other military officials, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not permitted to talk to the media, said they believed it was an Iranian-manufactured aircraft sent by Hezbollah. Hezbollah sent a drone into Israeli airspace last October that Israel also shot down.

Netanyahu was informed of the unfolding incident as he was flying north for a cultural event with members of the country's Druse minority. Officials said his helicopter briefly landed while the drone was intercepted before Netanyahu continued on his way.

Netanyahu repeatedly has warned that Hezbollah might try to take advantage of the instability in neighboring Syria, a key Hezbollah ally, to obtain what he calls game-changing weapons.

Israel has all but confirmed that it carried out an airstrike in Syria early this year that destroyed a shipment of sophisticated anti-aircraft missiles bound for Hezbollah.

A senior Lebanese security official, who also spoke on condition of anonymity in line with regulations, said Lebanon had no information on Thursday's incident.

Hezbollah spokesman Ibrahim Moussawi also said he had no information, adding the group would put out a statement if it had something to say on the issue.

When Israeli military shot down a Hezbollah drone on Oct. 6, it took days for Hezbollah leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah to confirm it in a speech. He warned at the time that it would not be the last such operation by the group. He said the sophisticated aircraft was made in Iran and assembled by Hezbollah.

Global powers will keep pouring oil on the fire in Syria - Hezbollah

Ammar Al-Mussawi, the head of Hezbollah's International Relations

There is no compromise on Syria alone – the entire Middle East is at stake and all the world powers have their interests there, Hezbollah’s Ammar Al-Mussawi told SW.

Ammar Al-Mussawi, the head of Hezbollah's International Relations shared his views on the grounds for the Syrian conflict and the possible ways to settle it in an interview with RT’s Nadezhda Kevorkova. Hezbollah believes the Syrian crisis is not a revolution but a case of international intervention and a way to punish Syria for its support of the Palestinians. Its leadership says the conflict has a political solution only, even while all its players want a bitter military escalation.

Q: What is your assessment of the current situation in Syria?

AM: What we are seeing is the escalation of foreign involvement and it’s hard to accept that it’s all being done to protect human rights and democracy. What they have in store for Syria could cause chaos across the Middle East. Different forces have drawn radicals and extremists into the fight, they have been supporting and exploiting them. They assure their nations that they are fighting against terrorists while here they are working hand in hand with terrorists.

Q: What do you make of Russia’s stance on this difficult issue?

AM: We believe that Russia has taken a responsible stance and is acting in line with international law. There’ve been attempts to distort Russia’s position and make it look like it is pursuing its own selfish ends in Syria. We’ve been watching the developments in Syria for two years now and what we see is that Russia has stayed true to the key principles it announced. The main one is non-interference.

If those who promote the right to interfere get the upper hand, then they would be able to destroy any country and inflict pain on any nation. Russia was initially concerned with the escalation of violence. Now we see what this violence has led to. So Russia was right.

Q: What is your forecast for the conflict in Syria?

AM: The regime is still strong, but destructive consequences of the crisis have been felt throughout the country. We fear that violence can spill over beyond Syria. The longer the crisis, the more chaos we see, the more factors there are that make these clashes look legitimate. The conflict in Syria has gone beyond a simple domestic political dispute. You have the same tension in Lebanon, Iraq, Turkey, Jordan. The Gulf countries will not remain safe havens in case this conflict will spill over. As we see it, the West wants to keep the situation in Lebanon stable so far to keep the spotlight on Syria. But sooner or later, violence may sweep across Lebanon.

Already today there are a total of 100,000 Syrian refugees in Lebabon and hundreds of rebels fighting for the Free Syrian Army. Some of them are armed, and the latest events in Tripoli prove my point. The Lebanese are divided over what’s happening in Syria. Some, like us, think it’s a conspiracy by the West that wants to intervene. Others believe it’s a revolution and their duty is to support it.

Q: Do you think there is a potential solution?

AM: We agree that the crisis cannot be resolved through force. A political solution is the only way forward. The communique adopted in Geneva was expected to become the platform for a transition period when such a solution could be found, no conditions are mentioned there. But the West said that Assad must go before it will be implemented. So at the moment we do not see any serious opportunities for a political solution.

It was possible to turn the tide before the conference of the so-called Friends of Syria. Now they have a chance to achieve what they want through the use of force. Those who reject talks have only one goal in mind – they want the conflict that has brought death and destruction to continue. Those who have accused the regime of killing Syrians seem to forget that they are supporting rebel fighters and are only adding fuel to fire. That’s why we believe they want to destroy the Syrian society and rip the country apart. After that they will define new goals for new proxy players.

Q: Why has Syria been chosen as a target?

For many decades, Syria has been the only country in the region has played a positive role in the Palestinian issue. That’s why the West wants to remove Syria. The oil and gas deposits found in the Eastern Mediterranean are a factor, too. The one who wins in Syria will get the right to develop them.

Also, Qatar, which is small in territory and population, is seeking to play a big role in the region. They want to supply gas to Europe, and Syria will allow them to do this if the current regime is crushed.

Any sane person understands that Russia doesn’t have imperialistic ambitions like some others. As far as relations with Russia are concerned, you don’t have to say ‘no’ to your own interests, you don’t have to sacrifice your own country. Some say that Russia will start losing its influence and popularity. But these people are Americanized Arabs, who cannot speak for the whole Arab world. If we held a referendum among Arabs right now and asked them to express their opinion of Russia, I can promise you – over 50% would give Russia their approval, US policies lead to destruction. Some Western ambassadors have been using Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya as examples of democratic changes. But what’s happening in those countries is not a good example, this is the worst scenario possible. So we don’t have a choice – we need to stay strong and resist.

Q:What do you think of the March 14 alliance in Lebanon?

AM: This organization hopes that the Syrian regime will be overthrown. In that case they will take power in Lebanon. They consider Hezbollah, General Michel Aoun and the Amal Movement to be the echo of the situation in Syria. Their problem is that they cannot fulfill their mission, but keep giving empty promises to their partners. For the sake of argument let’s say the regime in Syria falls (which is impossible), wouldn’t it be replaced by another regime? This is not realistic. If the fist that keeps everything together loosens its grip, there will be chaos in all countries and Syria will fall apart. Syria will have to deal with serious problems for many years to come. The March 14 alliance will not be able to implement its political projects in Syria. Hezbollah is not an anti-March 14 alliance force. Our allies have enough power to keep the balance of forces inside Lebanon. Hezbollah is an anti-Israel force, it is not our objective to stand against the March 14 alliance.

Q:Some experts say that Israel wants Assad to stay in power, others think that chaos in the country would benefit the Israelis. What do you think?

AM: What is happening in Syria benefits Israel, because they hope that Syria is getting weaker. Let’s have a closer look at the situation. In the past years, President Assad has proven to be a strong supporter of Lebanese and Palestinian anti-Israel forces. Israelis like to say, “Better the devil you know than the devil you don’t know.” Now they are saying that what happens after this regime falls, will be more acceptable than Assad staying in power.

Israel openly admits that it wants the Syrian regime to fall, and they even give exact dates when it is going to happen. There was a scandal involving Israeli intelligence. They want a weak country with weak leadership, focused on domestic problems. And if this new power decided to fire a few rockets at the Golan Heights from Katyusha launchers – that’s a price Israel is willing to pay. Israel views the Syrian regime as the link connecting Palestinian and Lebanese anti-Israel forces and their supporters in Iran. The frontline that runs from Iran to Gaza through Baghdad, Damascus, and Beirut, poses a challenge to American interests and Israeli domination in the region.

The latest events in Gaza confirm it. It was not easy to launch rockets into Tel-Aviv. Throughout the whole history of Israel, Tel-Aviv was one of the most secure cities. Now Fajr-5 rockets can reach Tel-Aviv, and these rockets are not small. Such threats define Israel’s approach to Syria. They consider Assad part of the anti-Israel strategy.

After the Camp David Accords, the Syrian and Iraqi armies were the only two forces in the region not equipped by the US. Americans didn’t control these two armies. They were equipped and trained by the Soviet Union. In 2003, the US managed to destroy Iraq’s forces. Now they intend to do the same in Syria.

Q: There are about half a million Palestinian refugees in Syria. Do you know anything about their involvement in the conflict?

AM: We don’t have much information about it. But many Syrians support the Palestinians and their cause. As for the Palestinian refugees – out of all Arab countries, including Lebanon, Syria offers them the best conditions. Syria has always supported the Palestinian cause at all political platforms and on the international arena. They have always kept their doors open for all Palestinian political movements, even when other countries, including the ones in the Arab world, closed theirs. So it wouldn’t be right for Palestinians to take Syria’s support for granted. So we hope that Palestinians will not take sides in the Syrian conflict.

But we also know of cases when external forces turned Palestinians against Syria. The recent events in the Yarmouk camp near Damascus is one of them. If you know the area, you will understand how the armed rebels were able to penetrate and bomb it. But leaders of different Palestinian movements are being wise and making sure that Palestinians do not get involved in this conflict.

Q: Can the Syrian crisis be resolved through force?

AM: This problem can only be solved through political means. But when you have armed groups and they are supplied with weapons from the outside, the regime has no other choice but to fight back. The West is distancing itself from explosions and terrorist attacks. This is dangerous. If you’ve chosen to keep them, then don’t blame anyone but yourself when these blasts start happening in your country. Those who are trying to rationalize terrorism shouldn’t be surprised if the terror strikes back at them.

Syria must take a firm stand against terrorism and all its allies should be on its side. We are not just dealing with hooligans and a few armed guys. This is a war against an international coalition. We have to seek all the means possible to make sure the current Syrian regime stays.

Q: Your party runs many hospitals and charities that take care of the handicapped. Can you tell us more about it?

AM: Hezbollah was founded in 1982, after the Israeli aggression, and we didn’t participate in the civil war. We enjoyed a broad grassroots support. We don’t barter – you give us support, and we will give you aid. We are just trying to help people where the state is not able to.

We started out by simply supporting people and families in need. And then we put our work on a regular and large-scale level. We set up infirmaries, hospitals, centers for underprivileged families, families of those who were killed, special schools and centers for war veterans.

We’re not saying that we have got it 100% covered or that all of our people’s needs are taken care of. Our facility for the handicapped was completely destroyed by Israel during the war in 2006, and we have only recently managed to re-build it. We extend help to all confessions and all social groups including our Palestinian brothers.

Today, we’re working hard to help Syrian refugees, and we are helping all of them, not only those who support President Assad. We are helping everyone regardless of their political views. You always have to put a human attitude above politics. We have accommodated some wounded Syrians from the opposition in our hospitals. They are no longer taking part in combat operations and must be treated humanely and provided with medical care.

We know that 11 Lebanese nationals are being held as POWs in Syria. They are not members of Hezbollah but we share similar views. We could easily apprehend and turn to POW status over 500 people from the so-called Free Syrian Army in order to liberate those 11 Lebanese nationals in a swap. But we choose not to use such methods. It’s a matter of principle.

Q: How do you think the situation will unfold?

AM: If you want to know my personal view, I feel that this war in Syria is going to last for quite a while.

We’ve already discussed the factors driving this crisis, but there’re much deeper causes behind it. The whole world is fighting in Syria, it seems, with all the countries having their interests in the conflict. Politics and oil are very much connected, tensions are high, and all the stakeholders are interested in further escalation.

There’s only thing that the parties to the conflict have so far succeeded in achieving: they have defined some rules of their involvement and drew the red lines which they think they are not going cross.

The world powers are not willing to get fully involved in the situation. No one wants to do that, neither Americans, nor the French, nor Turkey, nor Iran. They are all involved in the conflict but they don’t want to battle it out on the ground. Therefore, they are all going to keep pouring oil on that fire. I do not see there is a solution. But I very much hope I’m wrong about it. I don’t think that any party would agree to be the losing side. And even if we talk about a compromise, we all understand that such a compromise will have to be reached on so much more than just Syria. It will be about the entire Middle East and all the world powers. Working out a compromise is a very challenging and complicated task. Each of the parties will keep score of possible benefits they can obtain and threats they will run, so it is a very complex equation. This is a conflict with a very deep hidden agenda and so far it has not exhausted itself.

UAV - Sifting Through The Wreckage In Israel

An examination of the Iranian UAV that was shot down over Israel on October 9th revealed that some of the components were from Germany. This is no surprise, as Iran has been smuggling industrial goods from Germany for decades. While Germany has become increasingly aggressive in halting this smuggling, the goods still find their way to Iran, often via third or fourth countries and lots of false documents.

Meanwhile there is still a lively debate over what the purpose of the October 9th UAV flight was. Most Israeli experts appear to believe it was a publicity stunt, because Iran and Hezbollah were desperate for a win, any kind of win, given the problems they are having in Syria and with the stronger Iranian embargo (they can’t sell most of their oil) and the resulting economic crises. Some say the Iranian UAV was the first of hundreds and an attempt to see if some of these UAVs, armed with explosives, could attack Israel’s nuclear reactor at Dimona. Iran claims it has sent many UAVs into Israel, but the Israelis doubt it.

Meanwhile Iran continues to develop new UAVs. Earlier this year they introduced the Shaparak. This UAV weighs about 100 kg (220 pounds), has an 8 kg (16 pound) payload, and endurance of 3.5 hours. The Shaparak can operate up to 50 kilometers from the operator and at altitudes as high as 4.5 kilometers (15,000 feet). The October 9 UAV might have been this model, operating automatically via GPS guidance (from one preprogrammed point to another). If so, it was a one way trip because of the short range of the Shaparak (about 1,000 kilometers).

The Iranians have been developing UAVs since the 1980s. The ones used most frequently are the Ababils. This is an 82 kg (183 pound) UAV with a 2.9 meter (9.5 foot) wing span, a payload of about 35 kg (77 pounds), a cruising speed of 290 kilometers an hour, and an endurance of 90 minutes. The Ababil is known to operate as far as 249 kilometers from its ground controller. But it also has a guidance system that allows it to fly a pre-programmed route (using GPS) and then return to its ground controllers for a landing (which is by parachute). The Ababil can carry a variety of day and night still and video cameras. There are many inexpensive and very capable cameras available on the open market, as well as the equipment needed to transmit video and pictures back to the ground.

The Ababil has been seen in Sudan and Lebanon, where Iranian backed Hezbollah has received about a dozen of them. The Israelis feared that the low flying Ababils could come south, carrying a load of nerve gas or even just explosives. Using GPS guidance such a UAV could hit targets very accurately. Moreover, there's nothing exotic about UAV technology, at least for something like the Ababil. Iranian UAV development got a boost from American UAVs received in the 1970s (Firebee target drones).

Iran also has a larger (174 kg/382 pounds) Mohajer IV UAV, the latest model of a line that began in the 1980s. The Mohajer II is about the same size as the Ababil.

Syria moves missiles to Lebanese border

Days after Netanyahu, Barak warn of possible military intervention in Syria, Assad moves anti-aircraft missile batteries to Lebanese border

The Syrian army has moved new surface-to-air missile batteries to the Lebanese border, Arab media reported Friday. The report comes after Israel had warned it will strike Syria's chemical facilities if President Bashar Assad transfers his chemical stockpile to Hezbollah.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he does not preclude the possibility of military intervention in Syria and Defense Minister Ehud Barak stressed that Israel will consider action.

On Thursday, a Lebanese defense official told the Hezbollah-affiliated Al-Akhbar newspaper that the Syrians have shared some of the details of their deployment with the Lebanese. According to the source, the Syrians have devised a comprehensive military plan along the Lebanese border.

The London-based al-Sharq al-Awsat also addressed the deployment. A Lebanese military source told the paper there is no concrete information on the deployment of surface-to-air batteries on the border. He explained that the reinforcements were routine steps taken by the Syrian army in order to prevent the infiltration of gunmen from Lebanon into Syria.

He stressed there was no hostility between the two nations that would warrant the mobilization of anti-aircraft missiles. Asked whether the Syrian army is taking precautions for fear of a strike, he said that the deployment is done "according to a coordinated air defense plan. Assuming that the Syrians fear a NATO strike against them, Lebanon would not allow such a strike against Syria from its territory or airspace."

Lebanese military expert Nizar Abdul Kader said, "The Syrian military reinforcements were meant to warn outside elements of mounting military intervention against the regime. The deployment of anti-aircraft missiles is a precaution against airstrikes that can harm the Syrian regime."

Meanwhile, Syrian opposition members reported that two senior army officials have defected. One is Ahmed Tlas, head of military procurement at the interior ministry and the second is Mohammad al-Haj Ali, a military academy senior official.

Also Friday, Mortars rained down on a crowded marketplace in a Palestinian refugee camp in Damascus, killing 21 people as regime forces and rebels clashed on the southern outskirts of Damascus, activists said.

The Britain-based Syria Observatory for Human Rights, which reported the deaths, said the shells hit Yarmouk camp Thursday as shoppers were buying food for the evening meal. The activists with the group would not speculate on who was firing.

It was also reported that Moscow is sending three large landing ships with marines aboard to a Russian naval facility in the Syrian port of Tartus.

Russian news agencies quoted a source in the general staff as saying each ship would have up to 120 marines on board and that the vessels, already in the Mediterranean, would arrive in Tartus by the end of this week.

The source did not specify the goal of the mission, but Russia had earlier said it was preparing to send marines to Syria in case it needed to protect personnel and remove equipment from the naval maintenance facility.

The Russian Defense Ministry declined comment. The source said the ships would head back to the Russian port of Novorossiysk after spending several days in Tartus.