Russia Dropping Cluster Bombs over Civilian Areas in Syria

Russian bombers are dropping cluster munitions over Raqqa, Syria, the city known as the de facto capital of the Islamic State terror group, sources inside Syria confirmed to Breitbart News. Sources say Moscow is also indiscriminately targeting civilians neighborhoods populated by Sunni Muslims, killing innocent women and children in the process.

Russia remains loyal to the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, which has also indiscriminately targeted non-Alawite civilians throughout the country and is estimated to have killed far more Syrians than the Islamic State terror group. Forces loyal to Assad have slaughtered over 85 percent of the 250,000-plus Syrians killed during the war, according to estimates.

A source with Raqqa is Being Slaughtered Silently, a citizen journalism network that was created to document the atrocities of the Islamic State, told Breitbart News that Russia is targeting almost the entirety of Raqqa with cluster bombs, munitions that carry explosives which on impact, disperse hundreds of deadly metal fragments. When these submunitions deploy, they spread out over hundreds of yards of territory, creating a situation where individuals far away from the target site are subject to being killed or seriously injured. A single cluster bomb may hold hundreds of sub-munitions.

The citizen journalist network posted photos of the Russian strikes on its social media pages.

Using Cluster bombs against Civilians in Raqqa is A WAR CRIME, international community should take responsibility

Powerful missiles from Qatar sent to Syrian rebels

As an intermittent supply of arms to the Syrian opposition gathered momentum last year, the Obama administration repeatedly implored its Arab allies to keep one type of powerful weapon out of the rebels’ hands: heat-seeking shoulder-fired missiles.

The missiles, US officials warned, could one day be used by terrorist groups, some of them affiliated with Al Qaeda, to shoot down civilian aircraft.

But one country ignored this admonition: Qatar, the tiny, oil-and-gas-rich emirate that has made itself indispensable to rebel forces battling calcified Arab governments and that has been shipping arms to the Syrian rebels fighting President Bashar Assad’s government since 2011.

According to four US and Middle Eastern officials with knowledge of intelligence reports on the weapons, Qatar has since the beginning of the year used a shadowy arms network to move at least two shipments of shoulder-fired missiles, one of them a batch of Chinese-made FN-6s, to Syrian rebels who have used them against Assad’s air force. 

Deployment of the missiles comes at a time when US officials expect that President Obama’s decision to begin a limited effort to arm the Syrian rebels might be interpreted by Qatar, along with other Arab countries supporting the rebels, as a green light to drastically expand arms shipments.

Qatar’s aggressive effort to bolster the embattled Syrian opposition is the latest brash move by a country that has been using its wealth to elbow its way to the forefront of Middle Eastern statecraft, confounding both its allies in the region and in the West. 

The strategy is expected to continue even though Qatar’s longtime leader, Sheik Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, stepped down last week, allowing his 33-year-old son to succeed him.

“They punch immensely above their weight,” one senior Western diplomat said of the Qataris. “They keep everyone off balance by not being in anyone’s pocket.”

Obama in April warned Hamad about the dangers of arming Islamic radicals in Syria, although most US officials have been wary of applying too much pressure on the Qatari government. “Syria is their backyard, and they have their own interests they are pursing,” said one administration official.

Qatari officials did not respond to requests for comment.

The United States has little leverage over Qatar on the Syria issue, because it needs the Qataris’ help on other fronts. Qatar is poised to host peace talks between US and Afghan officials and the Taliban. The US forward base in Qatar gives the US military a command post in the heart of a strategically vital but volatile region.

Qatar’s ability to be an active player in a global gray market for arms was enhanced by the C-17 military transport planes it bought from Boeing in 2008.

In Obama’s meeting with Hamad at the White House on April 23, he warned the Qatari leader that the weapons were making their way to radical groups like Jabhat al-Nusra, also known as the Nusra Front, an Al Qaeda-affiliated group that the United States has designated as a terrorist group.

Syrian Army Ordered Use of Chemical Weapons: Defected General

The Syrian government ordered the use chemical weapons against the Free Syrian Army (FSA) during select battles with Syrian regime forces, a defected general told Al Arabiya late Saturday.

Zahir al-Sakit, a former army general from the chemical weapons branch, told Al Arabiya that he was instructed to use chemical weapons during a regime battle with the FSA in the southwestern area of Hauran.

Instead, Sakit disobeyed the orders and substituted the chemicals with disinfectant water he called “Javel water.”

“I was given orders to execute the use of poisonous chemicals in caves and tunnels that are used by the Free Syrian Army, but I mixed all chemicals with water and used Javel water instead,” Sakit said.

He said that prior to his defection, no chemical weapons were used on his watch in battles against the FSA.

“I assure you that I ordered all chemical weapons to be buried and I can point out the exact locations of those chemicals,” Sakit told Al Arabiya.

The United States and Britain have previously accused the Syrian government of using chemical weapons in Damascus after results of the smuggled soil samples showed presence of chemicals that were used in the capital’s suburbs.

U.S. President Barack Obama on Friday warned Syria that using chemical weapons would be a “game changer,” after the U.S., Israel and Britain all cited signs that the regime attacked with the deadly agent sarin.

Meanwhile Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told members of Knesset on Sunday to refrain from voicing concern over the mounting evidence of chemical weapons use in Syria, in an effort to avoid the impression Israel is pushing the international community into armed intervention.

Heavy clashes between rebels, troops at military air bases in northern Syria

Syrian rebels seeking to topple President Bashar Assad fought intense battles with his troops on Sunday at two military air bases in northern Syria, activists said.

The fighting raged inside the sprawling Abu Zuhour air base in northwestern Idlib province and the Kweiras military air base in northern Aleppo province.

The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said at least seven fighters were killed in the fighting in Abu Zuhour, in addition to an unknown number of soldiers. The group, which relies on a network of activists on the ground, said the Syrian air force conducted an airstrike on Abu Zuhour village during the fighting to ease pressure on government troops inside the air base.

Rebels control much of Idlib and Aleppo provinces, which border Turkey, although government troops still hold some areas including the provincial capital of Idlib province and parts of the city of Aleppo, Syria's largest urban centre.

The fighters entered the two air bases on Saturday. Both have been under siege for months.

Syria's conflict started with largely peaceful anti-government protests in March 2011 but eventually turned into a civil war. More than 70,000 people have been killed, according to the United Nations.

The Obama administration said Thursday that intelligence indicates that government forces likely used chemical agents against rebels in two attacks.

Washington's declaration was its strongest on the topic so far, although the administration said it was still working to pin down definitive proof of the use of chemical weapons. It held back from saying Damascus had crossed what President Barack Obama has said would be a "red line" prompting tougher action in Syria.

Both sides of the civil war accuse each other of using the chemical weapons.

The deadliest such alleged attack was in the Khan al-Assal village in the Aleppo province in March. The Syrian government called for the United Nations to investigate alleged chemical weapons use by rebels in the attack that killed 31 people.

Syria, however, has not allowed a team of experts into the country because it wants the investigation limited to the single Khan al-Assal incident, while U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has urged "immediate and unfettered access" for an expanded investigation.

The state-run al-Thawra newspaper on Sunday accused the U.N. secretary general of being a "tool" for the United States and accused him of "bowing to American and European pressures."

In neighoring Lebanon, Hezbollah's Al-Manar TV reported that Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov met Saturday night with the pro-Syrian militant group's leader, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah. No details emerged of the late night meeting.

The Shiite Muslim group has been drawn into the fighting in Syria and is known to be backing regime fighters in Shiite villages near the Lebanon border. The Syrian opposition accuses fighters from the group of taking part in the Syrian military crackdown inside the country.

At a Sunday morning at a news conference in Beirut, Bogdanov called for a diplomatic solution to Syria's civil war based on the Geneva Communique of June 2012. The communique is a broad but ambiguous proposal endorsed by Western powers and Russia to provide a basis for negotiations.

Syrian Government Report ! - Terrorists Confess to Perpetrating Terrorist Acts, Receiving Money, Arms from Outside

DAMASCUS, (SANA) – A number of armed terrorist groups' leaders confessed to planning and implementing a large number of terrorist bombings which targeted residential areas and public and military institutions.

In the second part of a documentary broadcast on Syrian TV on Monday, the terrorists confessed that after they received all forms of foreign support, they recruited young men in various ways, stressing that the majority of the armed terrorist groups' leaders hold al-Qaeda thought which seeks to destroy the secular state and establish "Islamic Caliphate." 

They confessed to perpetrating several terrorist bombings in all Syrian areas in return for large amounts of money from outside Syria. 

They pointed out that they formed an assassination unit called "Usama Bin Laden battalion" with the aim of kidnapping and assassinating supporters of the state after they received a fatwa about that. 

Earlier, in the first part of the documentary on Sunday, the terrorist groups' leaders confessed to receiving money and weapons from foreign sides for perpetrating sabotage acts to undermine Syria's stability . 

They confessed to looting public and private properties and committing massacres against the innocent Syrians to accuse the Syrian army of having done so. 

They divulged the big role of al-Jazeera and al-Arabia Satellite Channels in what is taking place in Syria through fabricating and falsifying the facts with the aim of igniting sedition in Syria. 

They also uncovered that a number of Istanbul Council's members called them to form coordinations and websites on the facebook under various military names. 

The leaders of terrorist groups said that Istanbul Council's members supplied them with money from the gulf countries, particularly Qatar and Saudi Arabia, Turkey and from the opposition abroad to form battalions and brigades to be included under the command of the so-called free army. 

They pointed out that the armed groups' members include mercenaries who fight for money, asserting that al-Qaeda-linked Jabhat al-Nusra exploited the situation in Syria and committed criminal and sabotaging acts for establishing an Islamic Caliphate. 

They stressed that one of the CIA officer who are in Jordan called Michael pledged to extend military and logistic aid to them. 

They added that a meeting encompassing 48 persons attended by Brigadier, Nehad Nader, Colonel, Ahmad Ni'meh , the leader of the so-called the military council in Daraa and the Southern Area and Colonel, Khaled al-Hbos, the leader of the so called the military council for Damascus and its countryside in addition to persons from Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and US officers who are existed in Jordan and Prince Suleiman Bin Sultan. 

Bin Sultan informed them during the meeting that the Saudi Arabia will offer $ 2 million to them in order to form armed groups to join the brigades which work under the command of the so-called 'the free army' . 

The leaders of the armed terrorist groups, military councils and brigades are belonging to al-Qaeda linked jabhat al-Nusra, the founders of the so-called Ansar al-Islam gathering, al-Mikdad battalion affiliated to al-Sahabeh brigades , al-Imam al-Ghazali battalion affiliated to al-Sahabeh brigades, Ahfad al-Rasoul brigade, founder of the engineering battalion affiliated to Sukour al-Sham brigade in addition to a number of experts in manufacturing mortars and ammunitions in the eastern Ghota.

Syria - The Blame Game

Unable to halt, much less reverse, the rebel advances, the government has apparently ordered its air force to make maximum attacks on civilians who are supporting the rebels. The idea is that the civilians will cease sheltering and supplying the rebels in order to avoid more of this. On the 29^th, the air force made its biggest daily effort ever, carrying out 60 attacks in 24 hours. Before that, the number of daily attacks had averaged 20 a day for and had stayed at that level for months.

The aircraft are using dumb bombs, so they are only effective against large targets, like residential neighborhoods or villages. Because the rebels now have portable anti-aircraft missiles, warplanes have to bomb from high altitude (over 6,000 meters/20,000 feet). That reduces accuracy even more. Each of these attacks causes, on average, more than 20 casualties. Few of the victims are armed rebels and most of the attacks are occurring in areas where there are no government ground troops nearby. This strategy is not working, which the government already knew, from areas where civilians had been bombed for weeks and continued to hate the Assad dictatorship. The air raids drive people out of their homes and some flee the country. But there’s not enough of that to allow government troops to retake lost ground. The government is desperate and unwilling to surrender control of the country. 

The heavier air force effort has been going on for a week now and the warplanes are wearing out. Even transport helicopters are being used. These cannot use aircraft bombs so they drop improvised weapons (barrels full of explosives and scrap metal, or oil.) Many of these improvised bombs don’t explode and the scattered fragments tell the tale.

Iran has sent in dozens of small UAVs, which are being used to spot targets for artillery and air strikes. This has made it more difficult for the rebels, who cannot move around as freely as they used to. The army also has problems getting around, mainly because the rebels control sections of the highway from Damascus (where the largest military bases, and supply stockpiles are) and Aleppo (the second largest city, with a population of 2.5 million). In particular the rebels took control of Maaret al Numan, in early October. This town is on the highway and the army has failed in at least three major attacks to get the rebels out. As long as the rebels block the highway, government troops in the northwest are facing a growing shortage of food, fuel, ammo and reinforcements. These shortages hurt morale and encourage more soldiers to desert. Those who remain begin to think surrender isn’t such a bad idea. Even some of the officers and NCOs are losing heart, and Basher Assad knows it.

In addition to the main highways, the rebels are increasing pressure on air bases and the artillery units pounding rebel positions. The government now finds that it has to use more of its dwindling manpower to guard the bases and artillery units. Moving artillery has now become a major operation because rebels try to ambush the artillery battalions on the road.

South of Damascus, in the largest Syrian refugee camps (Yarmouk, population 150,000, about 30 percent of the Palestinians in Syria) fighting continued between Palestinians loyal to the camp leadership (a Palestinian terrorist organization, which has long enjoyed the support of the Assads) and Palestinians who support the rebels. Palestinians realize that if the rebels win, and it looks like they will, they will be driven out unless pro-rebel Palestinians take control of Palestinian refugee camps (which are actually separate towns or neighborhoods occupied and run by Palestinians.) Hamas, the Palestinian terror group that controls Gaza, had long received support from the Assads. But under pressure from major donors (oil-rich Sunni Arabs) to oppose the Iran-backed Assads., Hamas has switched sides. Earlier this year Hamas moved its headquarters out of Syria and openly denounced the Assaads. Hamas apparently also told the Syrian Palestinians to oppose Assad if they wanted Hamas and other Arab states to persuade the new rebel government to allow “loyal” Palestinians to remain and avoid retribution. Palestinians are 1.7 percent of the population.

Despite the success of the rebels on the battlefield, the U.S. has openly called for a new rebel leadership group. The Americans believe that the SNC (Syrian National Council) has been unable to effectively unite all the anti-government factions. In particular the United States wants a rebel leadership that does not include Islamic terrorist groups in the rebel coalition. The rebels believe they cannot do that, because the Islamic rebels are the most fanatic fighters and provide most of the manpower and expertise for suicide attacks. These terrorist attacks are a major combat advantage for the rebels. At present the rebels believe they are getting more battlefield assistance from the Islamic terrorists than from the Americans. Western countries want to intervene, but are reluctant to do so without UN approval, and that is being withheld because of the Russian and Chinese vetoes in the UN Security Council. Many Turks want to intervene, but most don’t.  The U.S. has said that it would intervene if the Syrians used chemical weapons. Arabs are beginning to blame the West of deliberately not intervening (as they did in Libya) in order to get more Arabs killed.

November 1, 2012: In Damascus, three bombs went off in a pro-Assad residential neighborhood. One person was killed and two wounded. Most of the residents were shaken by the ability of the rebels to get into their well-guarded neighborhood.

October 30, 2012: For the first tine, warplanes bombed rebel targets inside Damascus, the capital and home of the most dedicated Assad supporters. Elsewhere in Damascus rebels ambushed and killed a senior air force general.

October 29, 2012: The four-day ceasefire ended, without much cessation of fire. Over 500 people died during the ceasefire, mainly because some rebel factions did not agree to the ceasefire and kept attacking. Government forces responded with more artillery fire and air raids. In Damascus two car bombs went off killing at least twelve people. Several Syrian artillery shells again fell on the Turkish side of the border. Nearby Turkish artillery returned fore,

October 27, 2012: In Aleppo a fighting broke out between rebels and 200 Kurdish gunmen who arrived in a Kurdish neighborhood to, as they put it, celebrate an upcoming religious holiday. Some thing went wrong and 22 people were killed and 180 rebels surrendered. The Kurds have so far remained neutral in the civil war, and if they joined the government it would be a serious defeat for the rebels. There are believed to be 100,000 armed Kurds in Syria, but they are also split into many factions,

October 26, 2012: After much effort by the UN, the government and the rebels agreed to a four-day truce (coinciding with a major Moslem holiday).

October 25, 2012: Saudi Arabia expelled three Syrian diplomats for unspecified, but apparently inappropriate actions.

In Damascus, artillery fired into a pro-rebel neighborhood.

Syria - Iran Prepares For The End

The rebels are getting anti-aircraft missiles and as these weapons show up in one area after another the Syrian Air Force must bomb from a higher altitude. This means much less accurate attacks since the government does not have smart bombs. Fewer rebel fighters and more civilians are being hit.

The army still has several bases that are cut off from ground supply and surrounded by rebels. The soldiers under siege are demoralized and many surrender the first chance they get (away from officers who might shoot them). Losing these bases is bad for morale, as is the fact that the army keeps losing everywhere, while getting more and more bad publicity for air force attacks that kill mostly civilians. While most Alawites are still determined to fight to the end no matter what, a growing number are seeking another way out of this mess.

While Sunni Arabs from many nations have come to fight for the rebels, many Shia Arabs are being encountered fighting for the government. These include Hezbollah men from Lebanon and Iraqi Shia from pro-Iranian militias in Iraq. Hezbollah has been firing rockets across the border into rebel held Syrian villages. Rebels claim that thousands of Hezbollah gunmen have moved into Syria to fight for the Assad dictatorship. Meanwhile Iranians are taking over the task of providing bodyguards for senior members of the Assad government. Too many Syrians, including a growing number of Shia, want the Assads gone and the Iranian bodyguards give the Iranians some more leverage on the Assads. But Iran is basically tied to a lost cause.

Turkish artillery continues to fire a few shells into Syria each day, to discourage more Syrian fire into Turkey, including five killed on the 3rd. So far this month over a dozen Turkish civilians have been killed or wounded by this Syrian Army fire. Return fire by Turkish artillery has caused the Syrians to try real hard to not fire in the direction of Turkey (despite the many rebel bases just across the border in Turkey.)

Most Syrian rebel groups have agreed to join a new military coalition that would coordinate their efforts in taking down the Assad government. The main rebel military organization, the FSA (Free Syrian Army) is largely for supplying rebel fighters inside Syria. The FSA is based in Turkey and has less and less control over combat leaders inside Syria. Turkey and Qatar were behind this new deal, and applied lots of pressure to get many different rebels groups to agree. But the deal has not been signed yet, and many not be for another week or two. Meanwhile the FSA is constantly assuring donors that the Islamic radical groups are under control. But everyone agrees that such control is partial, and not complete. The general belief is that, once the rebellion is over, the Islamic terrorists will go back to attacking those that disagree with them (which includes almost everyone in the world.)

October 22, 2012: A Jordanian soldier was killed when his unit encountered a group of armed men trying to cross the border into Syria and a gun battle broke out. The twelve armed men were arrested. This was the first death of a soldier on the border since the Syrian civil war began. It’s increasingly common for Sunni Arabs in Jordan to join the rebels, usually after obtaining weapons in Jordan (which means they can’t cross legally.)

Elsewhere in Jordan police arrested 11 men and charged them with being Islamic terrorists planning to attack targets in Jordan. The arrested men had obtained mortars and assault rifles smuggled in from Syria. This was blamed on the growing number of Islamic terrorist groups operating in Syria, who continue to support worldwide Islamic rule. While these groups work with the rebels, they also plan to take over Syria after the rebel victory and turn Syria into a religious dictatorship. In the meantime, the Islamic terrorists support violence in neighboring countries. A lot of the aid for the rebels, coming from groups in Saudi Arabia and other oil-rich Gulf states, is earmarked for Islamic radical groups only. This is causing problems for countries bordering Syria, where Islamic terrorists are not welcome.

October 21, 2012:  A car bomb went off in a Christian neighborhood of the capital, near police headquarters, killing 13 and wounding many more. This was the first bombing directed at Christians, who are five percent of the populations and have generally sided with the Assads.

October 20, 2012: In Lebanon there was gunfire in the capital as a large anti-Syrian demonstration took place, protesting the death of an anti-Syrian security official the day before. Lebanon has long been divided over Syria. The Shia minority (about 40 percent of the population) favored the Assad dictatorship in Syria. Most Lebanese are hostile to Syria, in part because Syria occupied most of the country from 1990 to 2005, as part of the peace deal that ended the 1975-90 civil war. The Syrians used the occupation to aid Hezbollah and operate many criminal enterprises (some of which remained after Syrian troops were forced by Lebanese and Syrian pressure to leave in 2005.) Another reason for anti-Syrian sentiments is the desire by many Syrians to make Lebanon part of Syria again. Over the last two thousand years, that was often the case. But for most of the last century Lebanon has been independent and most Lebanese want to keep it that way.

October 19, 2012: A bomb went off in a Christian neighborhood in the Lebanese capital, killing a senior security official (and seven others) who was openly anti-Assad. This angered many Lebanese who are still bitter about decades of Syrian interference in Lebanese affairs. Police arrested a former government official (Michel Samaha), long known as pro-Syria and accused him of planning the operation. Police say Michel Samaha admitted he transported explosives from Syria in his own automobile.

October 18, 2012: Warplanes bombed a residential area of Maaret Al Numan (a town near the Turkish border that the rebels captured nine days ago) and killed over 40 civilians. One bomb hit a mosque, where women and children had gone to seek shelter from the air raids. In the capital a suicide bomber detonated his explosives near the Interior Ministry, but he was the only casualty.

October 17, 2012: Syrian airliners have been banned from operating at EU (the 27 member European Union) airports. Syrian airliners can still fly through EU airspace, and can land if there is an emergency. This is yet another effort by the EU to force the Assad government to halt its attacks on Syrian civilians.

Outside the northern town of Maaret Al Numan rebels shot down a Syrian air force helic

Syria warplanes bomb northern rebel belts: watchdog

Syrian regime warplanes unleashed relentless pre-dawn air raids Tuesday on rebel positions around Maaret al-Numan, a strategic northern town insurgents captured last week, a watchdog said.

The raids were the "most violent" since the rebels took full control of the town in Idlib province on Wednesday, Rami Abdel Rahman of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights told AFP.

Large swathes of Idlib and Aleppo as well as the countryside abutting the Turkish border have fallen into rebel hands in recent months.

Maaret al-Numan is strategically located in the northwest on the highway linking Damascus to the embattled city of Aleppo.

The warplanes dropped bombs in a bid to break a rebel blockade of the highway, which is preventing army reinforcements from reaching Aleppo, theatre of intense fighting for three months.

Rebels responded with anti-aircraft guns.

Nearby, in Kafr Nabal, army shelling killed two children aged six and 10, said the Observatory.

A citizen journalist in the town said the children were killed by an air strike on their home.

"Usually, warplanes overfly Kafr Nabal for a while before the air strikes begin," but "this time, the fighter jet bombarded the town without warning," said the journalist who identified himself as Raed Fares.

Forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad are also attempting to put down rebels at Eastern Ghuta, in the countryside outside Damascus.

On Tuesday, the army pounded the eastern Damascus district of Jobar, home to strong anti-regime sentiment, the Observatory said.

It also shelled the towns of Harasta and Hammuriyeh east of the capital, the watchdog added.

Seven rebels were killed in Damascus province, three in fighting in Eastern Ghuta, home to some of the fiercest and best organised rebel groups.

Violence on Tuesday killed at least 26 people, according to a preliminary toll, among them 12 civilians, four soldiers and 10 rebel fighters, the Observatory said.

The Syrian conflict, which entered its 20th month on Monday, started as peaceful pro-reform protests in the wake of the Arab Spring, but transformed into an armed insurgency when demonstrations were brutally crushed.

The conflict has so far killed more than 33,000 people, among them at least 2,300 children, says the Observatory.

Syria - Slip Sliding Away

The rebels continue to make gains. In the last week the highway from Damascus (the capital) to Aleppo was cut and rebel fighters were showing up in more towns and city neighborhoods. Nearly 400,000 Syrians have fled the country (most to avoid the violence, a growing number of Assad supporters are going into exile). A growing number of Syrian soldiers are fleeing across the border just to avoid getting killed or captured. Over ten percent of the 22 million population have been exposed to some of the violence, and nearly all Syrians are suffering from shortages.

The rebels are seizing control of sections of highway in part to prevent military camps or units from being supplied and to make it easier for pro-rebel civilians (that includes over 85 percent of the population) to get food and other items. Troops that are left without regular supplies of food, ammo and medical gear suffer from poor morale. This increases desertions and defections. Thus as the rebels grow more numerous (even if many new recruits have few weapons and little ammunition) the government security forces continue to shrink. The rebels are making a point of releasing nearly all the lower ranking soldiers and police they capture, and only keeping most of the officers and senior NCOs. This has encouraged more surrenders. Deaths from combat and continued shelling of residential areas (by the government) are killing about a thousand people a week and wounding 3-4 times more.

The security forces are being forced to withdraw from more areas they long occupied because they have not got enough troops to patrol and control. Losses (mostly from desertions and capture) mean that more emphasis is placed on controlling cities and the major bases that surround them. Holding the cities means eventually having to deal with serious food shortages. It’s the lack of supplies more than anything else that is going to defeat the government. Turkey has banned truck traffic into Syria and the rebels control more and more of the roads entering the country. There are not enough police and troops to hold the border areas, roads and cities.

Turkish, American and Western leaders in general are becoming more vocal in condemning the UN, and especially Russia and China (whose vetoes are the main cause of UN inaction) for not doing anything to halt the fighting in Syria, or help ease the suffering of the many civilians there. Russia is now being called “morally bankrupt” but replies that it is simply fighting Islamic terrorism by supporting the Assad dictatorship. Russian media is full of stories about Islamic terror groups fighting alongside the Syrian rebels and how these terrorists are being supported by the United States and other Western nations. These Russian attitudes will harm Russian diplomacy in the Arab world for a long time. China, on the other hand, has simply kept quiet about its support for Russia in opposing UN action.

Alawites, worried about what will happen to them if the rebels win, are switching sides. While Alawites are about ten percent of the population, they received a disproportionate amount of benefits from the Alawite run dictatorship. Not all Alawites did well from this policy, but even some of those who did (like senior army officers) are defecting. Some are allowing the defections to be publicized, which puts family members at risk of retaliation by the government. The defectors are taking the long view, seeing connections with the rebels the only way to avoid getting chased out of Syria.

The increased security on the Turkish border is causing more gun battles and alerts because of the smuggler traffic. This illicit trade goes both ways. Cigarettes are much cheaper in Syria, so smugglers take them into Turkey on a regular basis. Now weapons and military equipment is being smuggled in (in addition to the items the Turks are allowing in) along with consumer goods and even food (because commercial traffic has largely been disrupted. Normally, the smugglers don’t fire on the border guards, but there have been more incidents of that lately. One reason may be the sharp increase in smuggling out antiquities. Syria has long been a source of valuable ancient artifacts and the loss of government control over much of the country has led to artifacts being taken without government permission and smuggled out to be sold on the international black market. This sort of thing could be worth millions of dollars a month to gangs that are grabbing the artifacts and smuggling them out. Some government officials are probably involved, but most of it appears to be the usual criminal organizations taking advantage of a rare opportunity.

Saudi Arabia and other Arab Gulf states are supplying most of the weapons for the Syrian rebels. The U.S. is having a hard time getting information on which rebel factions are getting what. This leads some American intelligence experts to suspect that the Gulf Arabs are supplying a lot of weapons to radical factions (like al Qaeda) within the rebel military coalition.

Syria is being accused of using cluster bombs, which have been banned in most nations because of many complaints that too many of the small bomblets do not explode when they are supposed to and lay on the ground where children (or even adults) later disturb the explosive devices and cause a detonation. Syria is supposedly using Russian cluster bombs, which have a reputation for a high number (over ten percent) of the hundreds of bomblets in a single cluster bomb not going off when they should. If the Syrians are using cluster bombs, they have to warn their own troops to be careful when entering areas where these bombs were dropped.

October 14, 2012:  Turkey banned all Syrian aircraft from Turkish air space. This mutual ban comes after Turkey forced a Syrian airliner, coming from Russia, down for an inspection. Weapons and other military cargo were found.

In the capital, a suicide car bomb went off in a wealthy neighborhood, where many government officials live. There were no injuries (except for the dead driver), but this sort of thing sends a message. Later in the day another car bomb went off, in the same neighborhood, wounding a pro-government journalist. Elsewhere in the city yet another bomb wounded a pro-government lawyer. All these bombs exploding in the capital, especially in areas where the government is strongest (or lives with their families) is bad for morale among the leading families.

October 13, 2012: Syria banned all Turkish aircraft from Syrian air space. Rebels claim to have shot down a government warplane over Aleppo.

October 11, 2012: Rebels cut the highway from Damascus to Aleppo. Subsequent efforts by the army to regain control of the highway failed.

October 10, 2012: Turkey forced a Syrian airliner, coming from Russia, down for an inspection. Weapons and other military cargo were found although Syria and Russia denied that this was the case.

October 9, 2012: For six days now, shells from Syria have landed in Turkey. In response, the Turks have fired back

October 8, 2012: Suicide bombers attacked an air force intelligence compound outside Damascus. There were casualties.

October 7, 2012: In the capital, a suicide car bomb went off near a police headquarters.