The aircraft are using dumb bombs, so they are only
effective against large targets, like residential neighborhoods or villages.
Because the rebels now have portable anti-aircraft missiles, warplanes have to
bomb from high altitude (over 6,000 meters/20,000 feet). That reduces accuracy
even more. Each of these attacks causes, on average, more than 20 casualties.
Few of the victims are armed rebels and most of the attacks are occurring in
areas where there are no government ground troops nearby. This strategy is not
working, which the government already knew, from areas where civilians had been
bombed for weeks and continued to hate the Assad dictatorship. The air raids
drive people out of their homes and some flee the country. But there’s not
enough of that to allow government troops to retake lost ground. The government
is desperate and unwilling to surrender control of the country.
The heavier air force effort has been going on for a week
now and the warplanes are wearing out. Even transport helicopters are being
used. These cannot use aircraft bombs so they drop improvised weapons (barrels
full of explosives and scrap metal, or oil.) Many of these improvised bombs
don’t explode and the scattered fragments tell the tale.
Iran
has sent in dozens of small UAVs, which are being used to spot targets for
artillery and air strikes. This has made it more difficult for the rebels, who
cannot move around as freely as they used to. The army also has problems
getting around, mainly because the rebels control sections of the highway from Damascus
(where the largest military bases, and supply stockpiles are) and Aleppo
(the second largest city, with a population of 2.5 million). In particular the
rebels took control of Maaret al Numan, in early October. This town is on the
highway and the army has failed in at least three major attacks to get the
rebels out. As long as the rebels block the highway, government troops in the
northwest are facing a growing shortage of food, fuel, ammo and reinforcements.
These shortages hurt morale and encourage more soldiers to desert. Those who
remain begin to think surrender isn’t such a bad idea. Even some of the
officers and NCOs are losing heart, and Basher Assad knows it.
In addition to the main highways, the rebels are increasing
pressure on air bases and the artillery units pounding rebel positions. The
government now finds that it has to use more of its dwindling manpower to guard
the bases and artillery units. Moving artillery has now become a major
operation because rebels try to ambush the artillery battalions on the road.
South of Damascus,
in the largest Syrian refugee camps (Yarmouk, population 150,000, about 30
percent of the Palestinians in Syria)
fighting continued between Palestinians loyal to the camp leadership (a
Palestinian terrorist organization, which has long enjoyed the support of the
Assads) and Palestinians who support the rebels. Palestinians realize that if
the rebels win, and it looks like they will, they will be driven out unless
pro-rebel Palestinians take control of Palestinian refugee camps (which are
actually separate towns or neighborhoods occupied and run by Palestinians.)
Hamas, the Palestinian terror group that controls Gaza,
had long received support from the Assads. But under pressure from major donors
(oil-rich Sunni Arabs) to oppose the Iran-backed Assads., Hamas has switched
sides. Earlier this year Hamas moved its headquarters out of Syria
and openly denounced the Assaads. Hamas apparently also told the Syrian
Palestinians to oppose Assad if they wanted Hamas and other Arab states to
persuade the new rebel government to allow “loyal” Palestinians to remain and
avoid retribution. Palestinians are 1.7 percent of the population.
Despite the success of the rebels on the battlefield, the U.S.
has openly called for a new rebel leadership group. The Americans believe that
the SNC (Syrian National Council) has been unable to effectively unite all the
anti-government factions. In particular the United
States wants a rebel leadership that does
not include Islamic terrorist groups in the rebel coalition. The rebels believe
they cannot do that, because the Islamic rebels are the most fanatic fighters
and provide most of the manpower and expertise for suicide attacks. These
terrorist attacks are a major combat advantage for the rebels. At present the
rebels believe they are getting more battlefield assistance from the Islamic
terrorists than from the Americans. Western countries want to intervene, but
are reluctant to do so without UN approval, and that is being withheld because
of the Russian and Chinese vetoes in the UN Security Council. Many Turks want to
intervene, but most don’t. The U.S.
has said that it would intervene if the Syrians used chemical weapons. Arabs
are beginning to blame the West of deliberately not intervening (as they did in
Libya) in order
to get more Arabs killed.
November 1, 2012:
In Damascus, three bombs went off in a pro-Assad residential neighborhood. One
person was killed and two wounded. Most of the residents were shaken by the
ability of the rebels to get into their well-guarded neighborhood.
October 30, 2012:
For the first tine, warplanes bombed rebel targets inside Damascus,
the capital and home of the most dedicated Assad supporters. Elsewhere in Damascus
rebels ambushed and killed a senior air force general.
October 29, 2012:
The four-day ceasefire ended, without much cessation of fire. Over 500 people
died during the ceasefire, mainly because some rebel factions did not agree to
the ceasefire and kept attacking. Government forces responded with more
artillery fire and air raids. In Damascus
two car bombs went off killing at least twelve people. Several Syrian artillery
shells again fell on the Turkish side of the border. Nearby Turkish artillery
returned fore,
October 27, 2012:
In Aleppo a fighting broke out between rebels and 200 Kurdish gunmen who
arrived in a Kurdish neighborhood to, as they put it, celebrate an upcoming
religious holiday. Some thing went wrong and 22 people were killed and 180
rebels surrendered. The Kurds have so far remained neutral in the civil war,
and if they joined the government it would be a serious defeat for the rebels.
There are believed to be 100,000 armed Kurds in Syria,
but they are also split into many factions,
October 26, 2012:
After much effort by the UN, the government and the rebels agreed to a four-day
truce (coinciding with a major Moslem holiday).
October 25, 2012:
Saudi Arabia
expelled three Syrian diplomats for unspecified, but apparently inappropriate
actions.
In Damascus,
artillery fired into a pro-rebel neighborhood.
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