Weekly Ukrainian media digest, March 14-20, 2017

Situation in the combat zone

Situation on the ground. Situation in eastern Ukraine remains tense. Intensification of the hostile attacks upon the Ukrainian troops was observed through March 14-16. On March 19, the number of incidents finally decreased.

Missing persons. Four hundred and eighteen persons are considered missing in the combat area in Donbas. The figures were reported by Iryna Herashchenko, Ukraine’s representative to the humanitarian subgroup of the Trilateral Contact Group, who quoted Ukraine’s Security Service as source for this information.  

Life in “DPR” and “LPR”

Russia recognizes “D/LPR” “passports”. The Russian Federation recognized “D/LPR” “passports” valid alongside the Ukrainian IDs. The Russian State Duma reported that persons holding the abovementioned “documents”, who are not in the possession of the residence permit, are allowed to stay in Russia for 90 days, same as Ukraine citizens.

Referendum on joining the Russian Federation? Leader of the “LPR” Igor Plotnitsky said he did not rule out the possibility of a “referendum” on the “D/LPR” joining Russia. Plotnitsky also said they regarded the decision by the Ukrainian authorities to ban trade with the occupied areas to be “the actual recognition of independence of the self-proclaimed republics”. 

Integration of the “republics” with Russia. Leaders of the “D/LPR” met representatives of the Russian authorities in occupied Crimea to discuss “the integration of Donbas into the Russian Federation”.  Andrey Kozenko, MP of the Russian State Duma was designated coordinator of the so-called “Russia-Donbas Integration Committee”.

“DPR’s” “state border”. “DPR” leader Aleksandr Zakharchenko issued an “order” designating the contact line the “state border” as well as prohibiting to cross the contact line outside of the designated checkpoints. Persons crossing the line have to register with the so-called “DPR Ministry for State Security”. 

It’s now legal to break into apartments. “LPR” allowed entering apartments in Luhansk without the owners’ consent. The excuse the leaders used is the alleged need to repair apartment block houses damaged by shelling. For reference: the active phase of combat actions in Luhansk ended three years ago.

Standoff over selection of the auditor for the National Anticorruption Bureau

National Anticorruption Bureau (NABU) and the audit. NABU is one of the few anticorruption agencies in Ukraine that may become an efficient tool in the fight against corruption. NABU has already proved its efficiency by detaining the Head of the Fiscal Service Roman Nasirov. Last week the Verkhovna Rada (Ukraine’s Parliament) started debates regarding a candidate for the position of the NABU auditor. Apart from the Rada, the government and the President have their respective quotas to select the auditors. Audit is one of the few mechanisms that may result in removal from the office of the incumbent NABU Head Artem Sytnyk.

What the standoff is about? On February 23, the Head of the Anticorruption Committee, MP Yegor Soboliev officially suggested a candidate for the post, US lawyer Robert Storch. Storch was selected as NABU auditor through the official competition. However, all of a sudden at the parliamentary session on the same day factions Narodnyi Front and Petro Poroshenko Bloc suggested UK citizen Nigel Brown, who had not taken part in the selection.    

Who are the candidates? Robert Storch, the winner of the competition, is Deputy Inspector General at the US Department of Justice, Office of the Inspector General. Nigel Brown is a private investigator in the UK.

Concerns. Expert community, as well as part of the MPs, raise concerns about the parliamentary coalition lobbying their candidate, Nigel Brown. They say the ultimate goal may be assessment of the NABU work as unsatisfactory and removal of the agency’s head from the office. Brown has not been yet granted any tools or access to the materials, however he has already evaluated the NABU’s work as “mediocre”. Experts consider it being an attempt to impede the work of the NABU.

Protests within the expert and international community. Experts of the Anticorruption Action Center conducted an investigation to discover that Nigel Brown was charged with an attempt of bribing a policeman. Moreover, the company he worked for was receiving money from offshore entities of Russian oligarchs Berezovsky and Khodorkovsky. At the same time the US and EU Ambassadors to Ukraine insist that the procedure to form the auditors’ commission needs to be transparent. Thus, Head of the Delegation of the European Union to Ukraine Hug Mingarelli spoke in support of Storch as the candidate earlier recommended by the Anticorruption Committee of the Parliament.

Next steps. Parliamentary Anticorruption Committee met three times to designate the auditor. However, the final and legitimate decision has not been made yet. The next meeting of the committee is scheduled for March 29. Auditor selection is on the agenda.

Human rights: internally displaced persons from Donbas and Crimea demand their voting rights ensured

In Lviv on March 18 about one hundred internally displaced persons from Crimea and Donbas rallied demanding their voting rights implemented so they could vote at local elections.

Participants of the rally gathered by the monument to Ukrainian poet Taras Shevchenko. The posters read “I’ve been stripped of my right to vote. Which right is next?”, “Residence registration is not condemnation but a possibility” etc.

Three draft laws on the right to vote for internally displaced persons have been submitted to the Parliament, however neither of them has been considered so far. According to the Ministry for Social Policy, there are about 1.7 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) from Crimea and Donbas in Ukraine. The IDPs were unable to vote at local elections back in October 2015.

Reforms: protraction with the energy regulator

The Parliament and the President are ignoring their direct responsibility of initiating the selection of new members of the National Commission for State Regulation of Energy (NKREKP). NKREKP is a key agency responsible for forming and transparency of tariffs.

Increase of energy tariffs for households is a number one topic in the current social discourse. Consumers wish to know what they are paying for. If an independent commission is not established and its members are not appointed in time and without political pressure, it would not be possible to win people’s trust.

According to the law, the selection committee was supposed to have already started work to ensure that the first composition of the commission is appointed in timely manner. The work has not started though. A series of NGOs including UCMC called upon the authorities to stick to their responsibilities.

Opinion polling: is normalizing Ukraine-Russia relations impossible?

According to the research by the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation, half of Ukrainians think that restoring relations with the Russian Federation is possible, but only in the long-term perspective and if the following conditions are met: authorities change in the Russian Federation, Donbas is de-occupied, as well as the annexed Crimea is returned to Ukraine. Each fourth Ukraine citizen thinks that normalization will never happen.

Thirty-five per cent of respondents support the approach of limiting the contacts to the maximum and cutting all cooperation. Twenty-eight per cent expressed themselves in favor of preserving limited cooperation in critically important areas but not compromising on Donbas and Crimea. Fifteen per cent support the idea of finding a compromise with the Russian Federation at any cost. Thirteen to seventeen per cent of respondents across the country share the idea of the country joining the Customs Union, while 20 per cent think Crimea should not be returned to Ukraine.

Culture: Ukrainian animation film: an ambitious full-length project at the Bordeaux forum and “90 years of animation” flashmob

Ukrainian animation film “Mavka. The Forest Song”, which is currently at the production stage, was presented to professional audience at the Cartoon Movie in Bordeaux, France. Cartoon Movie is one of the key European industry events in animation that offers opportunities for co-production and distribution. “Mavka. The Forest Song” is a full-length animation feature film based on a classic novel by Lesia Ukrainka and Ukrainian myths. It is produced by Animagrad studio and Film.UA Group, 30 per cent of its budget is covered by the Ukrainian state. A team of costume historians is working over the project headed by the acclaimed fashion designer Olha Navrotska. “Mavka” team reports that participation in the Cartoon Movie was successful. The film got wide media coverage, there are ongoing negotiations as to the possibility of co-funding of the film.

Flashmob “90 years of Ukrainian animation” started on Facebook. Back in 1927 the first Ukrainian animation film was created. It was “The Tale of the Straw Bull” by Viacheslav Levandovsky. The flashmob suggests that participants post their favorite animations with hashtags #90animations #UkrainianAnimation90. Information in English, as well as some of the unique works that shed the light on the Ukrainian animation film school, are available from the project’s Facebook page.

Sports: Ukrainian gymnasts on the rise

Ukrainian athlete Oleh Verniaiev claimed the men’s all-around crown at the 2017 artistic gymnastics World Cup in Stuttgart on March 19. On the same day Ukrainian female gymnast Diana Varynska won the gold medal in uneven bars category at the FIG Artistic Gymnastics World Cup in Baku.

Absurd of the week: marijuana fields in Ukraine

Last week former Ukrainian MP of the “Party of Regions” Volodymyr Oliynyk, who fled to Moscow after Euromaidan, made quite an unusual statement. He said a Ukraine-based friend of his called him saying marijuana is being now grown everywhere in Ukraine. “Marijuana fields are planted amidst wheat and rye fields. Ukraine’s Security Service and Ministry of Internal Affairs are backing the case, and surely are benefiting from it,” the alleged friend told the ex-MP.

To remind, sales of narcotic substances is forbidden in Ukraine. No reports came from other sources to confirm the statement of the runaway MP. Earlier this week Michel Tereshchenko, mayor of the Ukrainian city of Hlukhiv in Sumy region, stated that the first-ever center of marijuana treatment in Ukraine will be launched in town.

According to Tereshchenko, the treatment will be conducted with a special type of cannabis that does not contain tetrahydrocannabinol (the narcotic substance), but preserves cannabinoids that help cure such diseases as cancer, Parkinson’s disease, Alzheimer’s disease, sclerosis etc.

Tereshchenko mentioned that the medical center is due to open within the three upcoming months. Negotiations with potential investors are currently on.

Absurd of the week: marijuana fields in Ukraine

Last week former Ukrainian MP of the “Party of Regions” Volodymyr Oliynyk, who fled to Moscow after Euromaidan, made quite an unusual statement. He said a Ukraine-based friend of his called him saying marijuana is being now grown everywhere in Ukraine. “Marijuana fields are planted amidst wheat and rye fields. Ukraine’s Security Service and Ministry of Internal Affairs are backing the case, and surely are benefiting from it,” the alleged friend told the ex-MP.

To remind, sales of narcotic substances is forbidden in Ukraine. No reports came from other sources to confirm the statement of the runaway MP. Earlier this week Michel Tereshchenko, mayor of the Ukrainian city of Hlukhiv in Sumy region, stated that the first-ever center of marijuana treatment in Ukraine will be launched in town.

According to Tereshchenko, the treatment will be conducted with a special type of cannabis that does not contain tetrahydrocannabinol (the narcotic substance), but preserves cannabinoids that help cure such diseases as cancer, Parkinson’s disease, Alzheimer’s disease, sclerosis etc.

Tereshchenko mentioned that the medical center is due to open within the three upcoming months. Negotiations with potential investors are currently on.

yiv, March 21, 2017 Most intense hostilities take place at Krymske, Novoaydar district and in Avdiivka and its outskirts – Defense Ministry

Kyiv, March 21, 2017.

Overall, the number of ceasefire violations ranged between 50 on Sunday, March 19, and 112 on Friday, March 17.

The situation on the frontline did not change significantly. “Most active hostilities, during the previous week, took place at Krymske, Novoaydar district, in Avdiivka and its outskirts and in the south of the Mariupol sector”, stated Vilyen Pidgornyy, Ministry of Defense spokesperson during a press briefing at Ukraine Crisis Media Center. The share of enemy indirect fire episodes last week remained unchanged in comparison with the preceding week and amounted to 44%. In contrast, incidents of enemy sniper fire decreased in actual numbers and reached 12, comparing to 22 over the foregoing week.

Luhansk sector

Last week Russia-backed militants engaged Ukrainian Armed Forces in the sector with mortars and cannon artillery. The enemy remains consistent while choosing their target areas week after week: Krymske, Popasna area and Troitske regularly came under enemy fire of low and medium intensity. “However, on March 16 there was an unexpected development in Lobacheve. At 20:30 pro-Russia proxies opened fire with 82 mm mortars that resulted in casualties on the part of Ukrainian defenders. That day, militants treacherously used 122 mm artillery during nighttime against Troitske and Novozvanivka. The same day, the enemy fire wounded a teenager in Valuiske village of Stanytsia Luhanska district”, Mr. Pidgornyy said. On March 13, Russia-equipped militants used mortars  at Krymske three times, having fired more than 210 rounds. On March 14, the enemy has paused mortar attacks in the daytime just so that their sniper groups could advance to the front line and open direct fire against Novozvanivka, Novooleksandrivka and Zhovte. On March 18, Krymske was attacked with heavy weapons five times. Enemy artillery crews fired more than 150 mortar bombs and rounds of different caliber during one artillery and four mortar attacks. Additionally, the enemy opened tank fire. Last week, the daily number of cease-fire violations by the enemy in the sector ranged between 12 (on March 16) and 25 (on March 18).

Donetsk sector

Positions of Ukrainian Armed Forces in this sector were targeted with most intense enemy fire. Russia-backed militants opened short but multiple mortar and artillery fire along the whole front line, being most active in Avdiivka area. The militants engaged Ukrainian positions day and night. In the evening of March 15, the enemy artillery crews opened a severe artillery fire at our rear positions in Klishchiivka, south of Bakhmut, having fired nearly 80 rounds over an hour and a half. Similar to the previous week the enemy opened tank fire in Avdiivka and adjacent areas and used infantry fighting vehicles in Luhanske, Verhniotoretske and Zaitseve. Last week, the daily fire activity of the enemy ranged between 31 (on March 18) and 52 cease-fire violations (on March 17).

Mariupol sector 

Traditionally, the majority of cease-fire violations took place in the Pavlopil – Shyrokyne area of the front line. However, last week the militants several times used heavy weapons in the northern part of the sector, namely in Krasnohorivka, Maryinka, Berezove and Novotroitske. In the morning of March 13, the enemy sniper groups advanced to the front line. In the afternoon, the enemy artillery crews opened indirect fire at Pavlopil. In the early morning of March 14, enemy tank engaged our positions in Maryinka and fired nearly 20 shells in ten minutes. On March 16, the enemy launched a two-hour-long combined attack on Novotroitske, having fired the total of 50 artillery rounds and mortar bombs. “March 17 was marked by the highest intensity of enemy fire.  The enemy artillery opened fire at Krasnohorivka, Maryinka, Hnutove, Vodiane, Lebedynske and Shyrokyne. On March 18, Russia-trained militants used artillery at Vodiane having fired nearly 50 rounds”, added Mr Vilyen Pidgornyy. Last week, the number of cease-fire violations by the enemy ranged between 29 (on March 18) and 46 (on March 17).

According to Mr. Pidgornyy, compared with the foregoing week, the intensity of UAVs use by the militants decreased from almost three a day to the total of 9 episodes of hostile drones flights during the whole last week in the ATO area. The enemy conducted aerial reconnaissance both in the tactical rear of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and at the very front line near Avdiivka, at Svitlodarsk and Krymske village.

Russia delivered fuel to the occupied territories of Ukraine in 24 railroad tank cars. On Saturday, March 18, eight trucks carrying ammunition for militants crossed the Ukrainian-Russian border near Dmytrivka village, Donetsk region. Besides, on Thursday, March 16, the sixty-second so-called “humanitarian convoy” from Russia delivered unidentified cargo for the needs of militants through Izvaryne and Uspenka checkpoints that are not controlled by the Ukrainian government. Ukrainian military intelligence confirmed the “convoy” consisted of 40 trucks carrying over 500 tons of cargo.  

Casualties

Last week, 7 Ukrainian servicemen were killed in action. Forty soldiers were wounded in action, including  the National Guard of Ukraine officer.

Five civilians were wounded in enemy shellings in the conflict area last week. “This includes one teenager in Valuiske, Luhansk sector, a woman in Luhanske, two women and a man in Avdiivka, Donetsk sector. One of the wounded women in Avdiivka was a volunteer. All wounded civilians received medical assistance in a timely manner”, MOD spokesperson stated.

Damage to civilian infrastructure

Twenty-nine residential buildings were damaged in the indirect fire conducted by the Russian proxies in the Donetsk and Mariupol sectors. Most of them are in Avdiivka. Three non-residential buildings were damaged by the enemy shelling in Avdiivka and Krasnohorivka. Mortar and artillery rounds directly hit a kindergarten in Avdiivka, humanitarian supplies distribution hub in Zaitseve, power line in Hnutove, and railway track sections in the frontline area in the Donetsk sector.

Liwa al-Imam Zain al-Abidain: Building a ‘Resistance’ in Eastern Syria

Banner of Liwa al-Imam Zain al-Abidain. On top: “The Syrian Resistance” (al-muqawama al-suriya). On bottom: Liwa al-Imam Zain al-Abidain (“The Imam Zain al-Abidain Brigade”).

In analysis of militiafication on the Assad regime side, one of the most understudied fronts is that of Deir az-Zor province in eastern Syria, as the regime maintains an outpost in parts of Deir az-Zor city, the military airport and some of the surrounding areas, with no supply routes by land in existence. Despite the regime’s rather precarious situation, the Islamic State (IS) has not yet completely wiped out the regime presence in the way that it took the regime’s isolated bases in Raqqa province by storm in the summer of 2014.

Though reporting commonly just refers to the Syrian army in Deir az-Zor province, there exist a number of supporting militias. The latest of these militias to have been set up on this front is Liwa al-Imam Zain al-Abidain, named for the fourth Shi’i imam. For context, it should be noted that there are a number of militias on the regime side that have adopted the moniker of Zain al-Abidain. For example, there is another Liwa al-Imam Zain al-Abidain that has most notably fought on the Ithiriya front as advertised in late 2015. According to someone who was in the Republican Guard and then joined this Liwa al-Imam Zain al-Abidain, the group was formed around 2-3 years ago. A notable leading figure in this Liwa al-Imam Zain al-Abidain is one Zaher Hasan al-Asad, who is particularly interesting because he is also a member of Mihrac Ural’s group known as The Syrian Resistance (al-muqawama al-suriya), which should not be confused with the Liwa al-Imam Zain al-Abidain of Deir al-Zor that is the main subject of this piece and also bears the moniker of “The Syrian Resistance.” Hasan Zaher al-Asad’s affiliation with Ural’s group was confirmed by a source in the latter last month, who also mentioned that a squadron from Hasan Zaher al-Asad’s Liwa al-Imam Zain al-Abidain was in Aleppo.

The Liwa al-Imam Zain al-Abidain of Zaher Hasan al-Asad. The top of the emblem reads: “The Resistance Support Forces.”

Zaher Hasan al-Asad. Note his insignia from Mihrac Ural’s Muqawama Suriya.

Zaher Hasan al-Asad with his Liwa al-Imam Zain al-Abidain members, posing in front of a banner that reads: “God’s peace be upon you oh Hussein.” The reference is to Imam Hussein, a key figure in Shi’i Islam. 

Indeed, the leader of Liwa al-Imam Zain al-Abidain in Deir az-Zor- a petroleum engineer  by occupation who is originally from Deir az-Zor and goes by the name of Abo Abod- told me that the name of Liwa al-Imam Zain al-Abidain exists among formations in various parts of Syria, including Ithiriya (likely referring to the presence of Zaher Hasan al-Asad’s group), Palmyra and Quneitra. He mentioned this fact in response to a query as to why this name was chosen for the group. He added that there were connections “with all the formations.”

More specifically on his own group in Deir az-Zor, he mentioned that it has been operating for four months (i.e. first set up in May-June 2016). Officially describing his group as independent, he affirmed that it was one of the supporting militias for the regime in Deir az-Zor. By his account, other militias that have participated in fighting on the Deir az-Zor front, according to Abo Abod, have included:

-The National Defence Forces.

The Lions of the Eternal Leader: a militia whose name refers to Hafez al-Assad: affiliated with the Military Intelligence (al-Amn al-Askari: cf. here) and led by al-Hajj Azra’il, originally from the Shi’i village of Nubl in north Aleppo.

The Lions of the Euphrates: affiliated with the Amn al-Dawla (“State Security”) intelligence agency.

The Lions of the East: a tribal militia mainly drawing on Sha’itat tribesmen, who work closely with the Republican Guard and Issam Zahr al-Din, a Druze general in the Republican Guard who plays a leading role on the Deir az-Zor front, having recently returned to the front after a visit to the Quneitra frontlines that currently involve a rebel offensive that has pushed towards the area of the Druze village of Hadr, prompting a large Druze mobilization to defend the area. Together, under Zahr al-Din, members of the Republican Guard and members of the Lions of the East constitute the Majmu’at Nafidh Assad Allah (“Nafidh Assad Allah Group,” referring to a nickname for Zahr al-Din).

The Ba’ath Brigades.

al-Hashd al-Sha’abi: “Popular Mobilization”- undoubtedly taking its name from Iraq’s militia phenomenon that goes under this moniker- but not related, rather affiliated with the Syrian regime’s military commander for Deir az-Zor city.

Lebanon’s Hezbollah.

This list of auxiliary forces more or less correlates with that compiled by the anti-IS and anti-regime group Deir az-Zor is Being Slaughtered Silently (DZBSS). Most notably, DZBSS correctly points out in addition the role of the Palestinian militia Quwat al-Jalil (“The Galilee Forces”), which actually claims the bulk of its ‘martyrs’ from fighting in Deir az-Zor. Despite some occasional claims that have surfaced on social media, little reliable evidence points to the presence of Iraqi Shi’i factions on the Deir az-Zor front, something denied by Abo Abod. It should also be noted that Abo Abod clarified that the Lions of the Euphrates militia has been dissolved by the Amn al-Dawla, with fighters distributed to other formations. According to him, al-Hashd al-Sha’abi has also been dissolved.

As might be expected, Liwa al-Imam Zain al-Abidain in Deir az-Zor primarily draws on local people from Deir az-Zor as recruits, though Abo Abod was keen to emphasize as wide a manpower base as possible in terms of origins, claiming fighters from Albukamal (in eastern Deir az-Zor on the border with Iraq), Raqqa, Hasakah, Qamishli Damascus and Deraa. He put the monthly salary per fighter at $200, which he said was partly used to support civilians in Deir az-Zor. Concomitant with the wide range of origins, Abo Abod was also keen to put forth a cross-sectarian image for his group. “Do you know that I have Christian youth in the brigade?” he asked rhetorically in a bid to impress me. He added that “some of them are from al-Deir [Deir az-Zor] and some have come down with me from al-Sham [Damascus].”

The photo of Abo Abod above, with the “Labbayk ya Hussein” (“At your service, oh Hussein”) insignia, may raise the question as to whether he is Shi’i himself. To this question, he gave a rather interesting response: “I belong to all sects. I wage war on all who wage war on the Shi’a. I serve [/revere] the Al Bayt [Prophet Muhammad’s family] and my lineage is Husseini.” He then elaborated: “Do you know that Deir az-Zor is Shi’i in character? The black abaya, the al-Abbas bread, Allah wa Ali, all of them are from the customs of the people of al-Deir.”

These kinds of remarks touch on an issue I raised in my previous article profiling Liwa Sayf al-Haq Assad Allah al-Ghalib, a militia affiliated with the Republican Guard and based in Sayyida Zainab in Damascus. That is, whether or not there is formal conversion to Shi’i Islam, many pro-regime militias have displayed increasing affinities with Shi’i Islam and associated slogans and symbols, undoubtedly influenced by the extensive intervention of Iran and client Shi’i militias in Syria. Indeed, as Abo Abod told me, “The youth I have- Sunni before Shi’i- have adopted Labbayk ya Hussein, out of love and desire. We in the brigade deal with each other as one family and one house. Muhammad is our Prophet, Ali is our lord, Hussein is our leader….All demanded it [the slogans/symbols]. They said: ‘Hussein, Ali, Zainab and Fatima- peace be upon them- are our lords.'”

Photo of a person bearing the Liwa al-Imam Zain al-Abidain flag.

So far, Abo Abod only claims 5 ‘martyrs’ for his formation, a recent example being one Nasim Muhammad al-Hamid, killed in fighting to retake Tel Baruq near the 137th brigade base. In the recent U.S. airstrikes in Deir az-Zor that erroneously targeted regime positions, there were no reported or confirmed deaths for the ranks of Liwa al-Imam Zain al-Abidain.

Analytically, it could be as my friend Tobias Schneider suggests to me that Liwa al-Imam Zain al-Abidain is a project analogous to Hezbollah’s Saraya al-Muqawama (“The Resistance Brigades”) project in Lebanon that is designed to outreach to non-Shi’i constituencies. Though Abo Abod said his group is independent, such a claim should probably be taken as formal distancing. In any case, the study of this militia in Deir az-Zor offers useful insight into regime dependency on auxiliary fighting forces even out on this front, and how apparent cross-sectarianism can still contribute to antagonistic sectarian dichotomies.

Operational Environment in eastern Ukraine as of June 16, 2016, 00:00

Kremlin Trapped In Its Own Web Of Lies

The Kremlin has played an astute hand in the Ukrainian crisis, lying to the international community and the Russian people about its innocence in the conflict while simultaneously ratcheting its aggression. In Crimea, the Russian government and media initially denied that the Russian military was involved in securing the peninsula for Russian control and a sham plebiscite. It wasn’t until April that Putin admitted that Russian troops were responsible for disarming the Ukrainian military in Crimea and facilitating its illegal annexation. The Kremlin progressively increases its involvement in Ukraine, forces the international community to accept the new status quo by hinting at de-escalation, before intensifying its aggression even more. This strategy was successful as long as the Russians dying in Ukraine were primarily volunteers and social outcasts—members of fascist organizations, hired mercenaries, and ex-convicts. When these fighters died in Ukraine there was little outrage; they had volunteered to fight. However, this same approach will not work when Russian servicemen, rather than ideologically-motivated volunteers, fight and die in Ukraine.

 

Evidence of direct Russian military involvement in eastern Ukraine is now irrefutable. On Tuesday, the Ukrainian government revealed that it had captured Russian servicemen on Ukrainian territory.

 

The soldiers admitted that that had been ordered, some of them unknowingly, onto Ukrainian territory. Rapid militant advances in the Donbas at the moment are known to be done with the assistance of Russian military troops and heavy weaponry. Even Alexander Zakharchenko, the prime minister of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, admits that several thousand Russian soldiers operate in eastern Ukraine, who he dubiously claimed are volunteers and on temporary leave from the military. Despite continued denials emanating from the Kremlin, the Russian government will find it increasingly difficult to cover up the death and capture of its own soldiers, even to Russian society itself.

 

Russian civil society organizations are increasingly expressing concern that its soldiers are being secretly deployed to Ukraine without the notification of family members. The families of those Russian soldiers captured in Ukraine publicly pleaded to President Putin and the Russian government to secure their release from Ukraine. The Committee for Soldiers’ Mothers, a Russian NGO, has stated that approximately 15,000 Russian soldiers are currently serving on Ukrainian territory.

 

NATO, on the other hand, has stated that there “at least” 1,000 Russian military soldiers in Ukraine.

Furthermore, Russian reporters have said that they were attacked when following a story about the surreptitious burials of Russian paratroopers killed in Ukraine. According to journalists from newspapers Pskovskaya Guberniya and Telegraf, when reporters arrived in Pskov, to the site of alleged burials, armed thugs threatened them with death, eventually attacking their cars and erasing photographs of the site. All the while, the Kremlin denies that the soldiers buried in Pskov are related to the conflict in Ukraine.

 

Unlike the extremist Kremlin-supported Russian volunteers who have been fighting in the Donbass, the Kremlin will not be able to deny responsibility and sweep the deaths of Russian soldiers under the rug. These soldiers, many of them conscripts, have families that will ask questions about the disappearances, injuries, and deaths of their loved ones. Additionally, civil society organizations that support the welfare and interests of Russian soldiers, such as Committee for Soldiers’ Mothers, remain among the most independent NGOs in the country.

 

Clamoring voices are already revealing the Kremlin’s web of lies and prevarications, debunking the narrative that the Russian government is neither assisting the militants nor sending Russian troops into Ukraine. As Russia’s involvement deepens, which is overwhelmingly evident over the past several days, the Kremlin lies will likely fall apart not only in front of the international community, which has long recognized Russian prevarications, but in front of the Russian people as well. Only so many Russian soldiers can end up captured, injured, or killed before friends and relatives start asking questions and demanding answers. Soon, Putin will either need to come clean about Russia’s involvement in Ukraine, or face increasing scrutiny and distrust from his own people.

NSDC: Russian invaders in Novoazovsk apply methods of fascist propaganda

Kyiv, August 31, 2014. Yesterday nine Russian paratroopers were exchanged for 63 soldiers of the National Guard of Ukraine at the checkpoint in Kharkiv region, reported Colonel Andriy Lysenko, spokesperson of Information and Analytical Center of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine at Ukraine Crisis Media Center.

 

Andriy Lysenko said that in the last 24 hours four Ukrainian servicemen were killed and 34 got wounded. According to NSDC representative, the Ukrainian military engaged the terrorists and the Russian military 33 times in the vicinity of the following ​settlements: Stanytsia Luhanska, Heorhiivka, Krasnaya Polyana, Andriivka, Lutugino, Kruglyk, Uspenka, Berezove, Vergunsky Rozyizd, Fedorivka, Zempliane, Maryinka, Adrianopil, Makarovo, Fashchiivka as well as near “Luhansk” airport. The spokesperson for the National Security and Defense Council said that the ATO forces destroyed two tanks, an “Urahan” [‘Hurricane’] installation, six Grad systems and more than 100 terrorist militants.

 

Colonel Lysenko said that the shelling of ATO positions continues from the territory of Russia. Thus the position of Ukrainian military near the village Horodyshche was fired upon with anti-tank guided missiles. In addition, the Ukrainian-Russian borderline in Luhansk region,  and the bridge over the Kamyshnaya river near the village of Nizhnebaranovka (Bilovodsky district), as well as the positions of the ATO forces in the village of Makarovo (Stanychno-Luhansk region) suffered from the shelling which originated from the territory of the Russian Federation. The NSDC representative emphasized that yesterday Ukraine recorded four Russian drones close to the village of Rosa Luxemburg (Donetsk region) and near the village of Yuhanovka (Luhansk region).

 

Lysenko cited numerous facts of destruction of Donbas infrastructure by the terrorists. He particularly pointed toward the evidence of shelling of Lutugin scientific and industrial roller mill, and the downing of the bridge over the Kalmius river near the village of Granite, Telmanovsky district. On a separate note, Lysenko reported that the Ukrainian forces found and disabled 163 units of ammunition and explosives.

 

Commenting on the situation in Mariupol, which is under the threat of a Russian invasion, the NSDC spokesperson said that the city was preparing for the defense, noting that yesterday more than a thousand residents of Mariupol stepped out creating a human chain at the checkpoint on the road coming from Novoazovsk, which is now occupied by the Russian army. In Novoazovsk, according to Andriy Lysenko, the Russians have been recorded to disseminate leaflets on “How to deal with the peacekeeping force of the Russian troops,” where the local population was suggested not to resist the Russian invaders and take the collaborationist position. The leaflet also assures that “no one will be shot down just for no reason.”

 

Colonel Lysenko noted that the National Guard of Ukraine received several Mi-8 MTV1 helicopters which have been redesigned and modernized to be able to evacuate the wounded and provide first aid. According to the NSDC representative, the helicopters have successfully passed the flight test and have no analogues in the world.

 

Notably, on August 30 President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko held a series of meetings with European leaders, including the British Prime Minister David Cameron and Prime Minister of the Netherlands Mark Rutte. Reportedly, the European community condemns the Russian occupation of Crimea and aggression in eastern Ukraine. In addition the European Union calls on Russia to immediately withdraw its troops and equipment from Ukraine and fully supports President Poroshenko’s peace plan.

NSDC: Russia keeps sending military equipment to Eastern Ukraine

Within the last 24 hours ATO forces inflicted powerful damage on the enemy. Ukrainian servicemen eliminated the enemy’s convoy of 30 vehicles on the move towards Luhansk – Alchevsk. Two more vehicles of Russian mercenaries moving towards Zugres – Khartsyzsk were also eliminated. In total Ukrainian armed forces eliminated with fire 2 tanks, 3 APCs, 1 Uragan and 6 Grad multiple rocket launcher systems as well as 35 militants. The information was presented by Col. Andriy Lysenko, spokesman of the Information-AnalyticalCenter of the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) of Ukraine at a briefing in the UkraineCrisisMediaCenter. “Direct military aggression of the Russian Federation continues in the East of Ukraine. Russians keep sending military machinery and mercenaries to Donbas. The situation in Donetsk and Luhansk regions is getting more complicated due to activities of the Russian Armed Forces. Following yesterday’s combat with terrorists and Russian troops near Komsomolske village Ukrainian forces got on defensive positions and set their strongholds,” added Col. Andriy Lysenko.

 

Ukrainian army started offensive in Luhansk region. Over forty terrorists were eliminated. Planned operational work was conducted in several settlements in Slovyano-Serbsky district, Krymske and Sokolnyky villages. “Active combat is on at the Luhansk direction. Regular units of Ukrainian Armed Forces got an order to retreat from Khryashuvate and Novosvitlivka of Krasnodonsky region, they took defense positions near Luhansk. In Luhansk region positions of ATO forces near Horodyshe and Makarove of Stanychno-Lyhansky district came under fire from the territory of the Russian Federation,” informed NSDC spokesman.

 

Ukrainian servicemen keep bolstering fortifications in Mariupol. In Mariupol district of the Donetsk region border guards jointly with volunteer battalions have organized round-the-clock patrolling to discover subversive and reconnaissance Russian groups. All main entries to Mariupol have been reinforced by dog support units and border guard specialists. Special units to repel tanks attack were additionally established.

 

On 29 August Ukraine’s Security Service detained Russian citizen, Serhiy (Gennadiyovych) Chernysh, date of birth 1965, who took part in terroristic activities in Ukraine. Citizen of the Russian Federation together with other mercenaries illegally crossed Ukraine’s state border at a Russian border crossing point. “Together with the militants Chernysh previously experienced in “hot spots” took over a role of instructor, coordinated groups activities, ensured terrorists’ retreat under attacks of ATO forces a number of times. Russian mercenary was detained when he was on special mission to find the pilot who managed to escape from an aircraft downed by the terrorists. Detained is in custody, investigation is underway,” explained Col. Lysenko.

 

Enterprises making part of state-owned “Ukroboronprom” group will work in 3-shifts mode. Production effectiveness is thus expected to be increased by 40 percent.

 

Servicemen of the Russian Federation are holding propaganda activities to get support for pro-Russian oriented terroristic organizations. Propaganda promoters also offer financial reward in exchange for information on dislocation places of Ukrainian armed forces units, Ukrainian special forces servicemen and members of their families.

 

In Makiivka militants installed “Grad” multiple rocket launchers and shell Donetsk and Yasynuvata.

US Senators John McCain and Lindsey Graham urge to immediately start supplying weapons to Ukraine and introduce more powerful economic sanctions against Russia as a result of its military invasion on Ukraine’s territory.

 

Minister for Foreign Affairs of France Laurent Fabius claimed to be in possession of undeniable proofs of military invasion to Ukraine by the Russian Federation and stressed on the possibility to step up sanctions provided that Moscow refuses peaceful settlement of the conflict.

 

German government’s spokesperson Steffen Seibert said that numerous violations of the Russian-Ukrainian border testify on military intervention of the Russian Federation to Ukraine. In this regard official Berlin requests from Kremlin explanation of the above situation.

 

Prime Minister of the Netherlands Mark Rutte outlined the need for the EU member states to introduce additional sanctions against Russia in response to conflict escalation in Eastern Ukraine.

 

Ministry for Foreign Affairs of the Czech Republic considers invasion of the Armed forces of the Russian Federation to Ukraine being a threat to peace and stability in Europe and urges Kremlin to pull back its armed forces from Ukrainian territory.

Assassination Attempt Made on Zakharchenko, PM of 'Donetsk People's Republic'

An assassination attempt was made on Aleksandr Zakharchenko, the appointed "prime minister" of the self-proclaimed "Donetsk People's Republic" (DNR), ITAR-TASS reported.

 

The attempt was made during the day on August 30, a source in the DNR told ITAR-TASS. Shots were fired at the car in which he was traveling, Interfax reported.

His driver was injured, but Zakharchenko escaped unharmed.

 

The attack came after Zakharchenko replied to President Vladimir Putin's call on the "Novorossiya militia" to open up a humanitarian corridor to allow Ukrainian soldiers encircled by Russian-backed separatists to escape. Zakharchenko said he would approve the corridor if first Ukrainian battalions gave up their heavy weapons and vehicles. The Ukrainian soldiers began leaving the area of fighting near Ilovaisk yesterday morning, amid reports that they were fired upon nonetheless by separatists.

Zakharchenko was installed August 8, after the resignation of Aleksandr Boroday, and as a man with some military training, said he would make the unification of the separatist command and victory on the battlefield a priority.

 

Speculation about the nature of the assailants ranges from rival separatists to Ukrainian forces to Russian intelligence but there is no information available at all on the attackers.

There were reports on August 28 that Valery Bolotov, the former "governor" of the "Lugansk People's Republic" was assassinated, after disappearing soon after resigning from his position, citing the need to recover from wounds. The reports have not been confirmed.

 

Another DNR leader who suffered repeated assassination attempts was Denis Pushilin, former chairman of the Supreme Council. In a June 7 attack, his aide Maksim Petrukhin was killed; on 12 June, his car was blown up while he was away in Moscow, and two people were killed. He left his post on July 18.

MOSCOW, Russia -- Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday hailed pro-Moscow Thugs in eastern Ukraine as “insurgents” battling an army that he likened to Nazi invaders during World War II, and the Ukrainian government raised the prospect of joining NATO as it seeks help to repel what it calls an outright Russian military invasion

 

Pro-Russian separatists walk past an unmarked grave at Savur-Mohyla, a hill east of the city of Donetsk.

 

In a statement published on the Kremlin’s Web site early Friday, Putin also urged the separatists to release Ukrainian soldiers trapped since Monday in the southeastern town of Ilyovaisk.

The double-edged statement — couched as a humanitarian gesture but perhaps aimed at helping the rebels consolidate control — came a day after the government in Kiev said Russian soldiers, tanks and heavy artillery had begun rolling into the region to help the separatists reverse recent Ukrainian military gains.

Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk said Friday that Ukraine may seek to join NATO, announcing the submission of a bill to parliament that would repeal the country’s “non-bloc status,” the Interfax news agency reported.

A Ukrainian military spokesman, Col. Andriy Lysenko, told reporters that Russia continues to send troops and materiel across the border.

He said the force includes tanks bearing inscriptions such as “We are going to Kiev.” 

“I assure you that on our shells we won’t have any messages like ‘to Moscow’ or ‘on to Moscow,’ ” Lysenko said.

“We are not aggressors. We’re just trying to liberate Ukrainian lands.”

Lysenko said the Ukrainian army, after retreating from the southeastern coastal town of Novoazovsk, was ready to defend the key port city of Mariupol, about 28 miles farther west on the Sea of Azov.

Putin did not answer accusations by the Ukrainian government and the West about Russia’s military presence in southeastern Ukraine.

Instead, he praised the separatists as “insurgents” who had undermined “Kiev’s military operation, which threatened lives of the residents of Donbas and has already led to a colossal death toll among civilians” — a reference to the eastern Ukrainian region known as the Donets Basin, or Donbas, whose unofficial capital is rebel-held Donetsk.

Ukraine’s military responded quickly, saying that Putin’s call for an exit corridor for encircled Ukrainian troops showed that the separatists are “led and controlled directly from the Kremlin.”

Pro-Russian separatists said they would comply with the Kremlin’s request, but it was unclear whether Kiev would accept the offer.

At a youth forum later Friday, Putin said Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko had agreed to a prisoner swap that would include sending 10 captured Russian paratroopers back to Russia.

An advocacy group called Soldiers’ Mothers has been pressing Russian authorities for answers on the fate of troops believed to be fighting in Ukraine.

Russia responded by putting the Soldiers’ Mothers of St. Petersburg on a government list of foreign agents.

In the same appearance, Putin said the recent Ukrainian offensive against pro-Russian rebels reminded him of “the events of the Second World War, when the Nazi occupiers, the troops, surrounded our cities — for example, Leningrad — and point-blank shot at these settlements and their inhabitants.”

He added: “It’s awful. It’s a disaster.”

Although Putin skirted the issue of Russian military involvement in Ukraine, his remarks directly addressing the separatists and his disparaging comments about Ukrainian forces served to escalate the rhetoric surrounding the crisis at a time when Moscow and Kiev are supposed to be talking about prisoner swaps, humanitarian convoys and other matters.

Ukraine’s president Petro Poroshenko is scheduled to meet in Brussels today with top European leaders to discuss the situation in Ukraine.

Russian and Ukrainian border security services are also expected to meet at the Nekhoteyevka checkpoint in the Belgorod region of Russia, near to the Ukrainian region of Kharkiv, to discuss the situation along the Russian-Ukrainian border, and strategies to prevent militants and military hardware from crossing back and forth. 

Putin also said that Ukraine should not fear federalization, asserting that Russia itself would be moving further in that direction, possibly by shifting some central government authorities to Siberia.

That declaration comes barely two weeks after activists calling for more federalism in Siberia were detained and protests on the subject were banned.

However, Russia would not “meddle” with Ukraine’s internal affairs, Putin added. 

U.S. officials said privately Thursday that they consider the Russian show of military force this week tantamount to an invasion.

Speaking at a news conference, President Obama did not use the term but said it was clear the uprising in eastern Ukraine was not “homegrown.”

“The separatists are backed, trained, armed, financed by Russia,” he said.

In a response Friday, Russia’s Foreign Ministry again accused the United States of hypocrisy — this time for what it called U.S. disregard for civilians in eastern Ukraine.

“In any other conflict, whether in the Middle East, Africa or anywhere else, the West has consistently opposed actions causing harm to civilians,” the ministry said on its Web site.

“It is only in relation to southeastern Ukraine that it holds a diametrically opposite line, in gross violation of international humanitarian law.”

A total of 2,593 people, including civilians, have been killed in the fighting in eastern Ukraine since mid-April, a senior U.N. human rights official said Friday.

“The trend is clear and alarming,” Ivan Simonovic, U.N. assistant secretary general for human rights, told journalists in Kiev.

“There is a significant increase in the death toll in the east.” Simonovic said the number would be close to 3,000 if the 298 victims of downed Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 were counted.

Civilian casualties would continue to rise “as each side increases its strength, through mobilization, better organization, or the deployment of new fighters and more sophisticated weapons and support from outside,” he said.

Simonovic had sharp words for both sides.

“Armed groups continue to commit abductions, physical and psychological torture,” he said of the separatists, whose tactics he said were aimed at terrorizing the population under their control. But he added that the United Nations has also heard “disturbing reports of violations committed by battalions under government control.” 

Russia’s Foreign Ministry criticized the U.N. official as repeating “fabrications against the militia forces of Donetsk and Luhansk” but commended him for addressing “the criminal actions of the Ukrainian army” — although the ministry maintained that his report did not go far enough.

“The mission was forced to admit the obvious,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Alexander Lukashevich said.

Resurgent Pro-Russia Thugs Brim With Confidence In Ukraine After Gaining Ground

STAROBESHEVE, Ukraine — As the survivor of a tank attack on a Ukrainian army truck was being carried into an ambulance, he was showered with verbal abuse by a rebel fighter.

Ukrainian loyalist fighters from the Azov Battalion stand guard on a hill on the outskirts of Mariupol on August 30, 2014. Pro-Russian rebels in east Ukraine warned on Saturday that they will launch a fresh offensive against government troops, days after seizing swathes of territory.

“Why didn’t you say before that you were alive? Why so quiet?” the rebel taunted.

Minutes later, the Ukrainian soldier drew his last breath.

Under the gaze of rebels, Ukrainian soldiers loaded the bodies of six other dead comrades onto trucks outside the village of Starobesheve.

A couple of kilometres away, in the village itself, other rebels made wisecracks and boasted about dealing another punishing blow to Ukrainian forces.

After weeks of yielding ground, the Russian-backed separatists are brimming with confidence following a string of seemingly effortless victories.

On Saturday, Ukraine announced it was abandoning Ilovaisk, a city 25 kilometres north of Starobesheve.

Surrounded on all sides over several days, they sustained fire so intense that the government was compelled to plead for a corridor out.

“We are surrendering this city,” said Ukrainian Col. Andriy Lysenko, a spokesman for the national security council.

“Our task now is to evacuate our military with the least possible losses in order to regroup.”

Lysenko said that regular units of the military had also been ordered to retreat from Novosvitlivka and Khryashchuvate, two towns on the main road between the Russian border and Luhansk, the second-largest rebel-held city.

Ukraine had claimed control of Novosvitlivka earlier in August.

Adding to that, Ukrainian government forces are now facing the prospect of an onslaught from yet another front along the coast of the southeastern Azov Sea. 

Ukraine and numerous Western governments have said they believe rebels have been amply supplied with powerful Russian weaponry and that regular Russian troops are engaged in combat.

NATO estimates that at least 1,000 Russian soldiers are in Ukraine even though Russia heatedly denies any involvement in fighting that has so far claimed at least 2,600 lives, according to U.N. figures.

Preparations for the evacuation from Ilovaisk were spotted by AP reporters Saturday morning in the village of Mykolaivka, 50 kilometres (30 miles) away, where 20 flatbed trucks were parked in line primed to go and collect stranded Ukrainian troops.

Anxious Mykolaivka residents reported hearing blasts of artillery Friday and the convoy made painstaking progress throughout the day to avoid rebel ambushes.

After more than an hour’s travel through tortuous country roads, the convoy reached the countryside outside Starobesheve and joined up with about 15 government ambulances readied to collect the wounded.

As drivers awaited the order to move, a green army truck drove in from the opposite direction packed with weary and evidently traumatized soldiers.

Speaking over one another, they said rebels reneged on promises to provide a safe corridor out of Ilovaisk and opened fire on departing Ukrainians troops.

Although palpably frustrated with what they see as fatally indecisive leadership from the authorities, rank-and-file troops are reluctant to go on the record with their complaints for fear of reprisals.

But their rage Saturday was mainly reserved for their opponents.

“We came from Ilovaisk bearing white flags,” said one soldier, who declined to give his name and had his face covered with a mask.

“They shot us from all sides. We were not engaged in military actions. We were just on the move.”

While none could offer a specific estimate of how many had died, they said the deaths may have numbered in the dozens.

Ukrainian National Guard Lt. Col. Mekola Hordienko, who was accompanying the evacuation operation, said the attack on departing soldiers constituted a violation of international conventions.

The surrounding area has been scene of skirmishes and shelling attacks over the past week.

In Starobesheve, the dozens of rebels milling around the otherwise deserted rural settlement were jubilant Saturday over having trapped a column of Ukrainian tanks and armoured personnel carriers after a brief battle that morning.

Standing in groups, some fighters shared jokes and battle stories, while one showed off pictures taken on his phone of insignia from troops in the trapped Ukrainian battalions.

At one stage in the afternoon, three rebel tanks raced up to the local police station, which now operates at the local rebel headquarters, only to be angrily ordered back down the hill by the local commander.

One separatist fighter, who provided only his first name Sergei and the nom de guerre Frantsuz (Frenchman), said the Ukrainian armoured column was intercepted while it was travelling to Ilovaisk to assist in evacuating government troops.

“They wanted to take Starobesheve, but this operation failed,” he said.

“Starobesheve remains under our control and their equipment is under our control.” 

After hours of negotiations, dozens of Ukrainian troops were allowed to leave the village riding on six APCs, but without ammunition.

Frantsuz said rebel commanders agreed to allow ambulances and trucks to travel to Ilovaisk to take away the injured and the dead.

Near a bridge on the road out of the village, six bodies lay in disarray around a medical truck that was torn apart by a rebel tank shell.

Ukrainian army personnel dragged away the bodies with cables — a precaution adopted to avoid impact from possible unexploded ordnance.

A man in the recovery group wretched after one especially mangled body was loaded into a truck.

Although the bodies showed signs of having lain in the open overnight, one severely injured man in the crew was found to still be alive and was carried away for treatment.

About half an hour later, he too died and was tipped face down into the back of the truck along with the other men.

After months of supporting separatist rebels to stir up trouble in eastern Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin launched an overt (if relatively small-scale) invasion of eastern Ukraine sometime around August 21, sending in tanks, mobile artillery, and at least 1,000 troops.

 

Putin, Czar of the "Evil Empire".

 

This seems likely to come back to hurt Putin.

The US and European countries were already imposing tough economic sanctions that had pushed the Russian economy on the edge of recession.

It is all but certain that these countries will heighten sanctions — even German Chancellor Angela Merkel, normally hesitant to take such action, is suggesting as much — and damage the Russian economy further.

So why is Putin doing it?

In the short-term, Russia's goal appears to be bolstering the separatist rebels, who have been losing ground to Ukrainian military forces in the weeks since those rebels shot down Malaysian Airlines flight 17.

But that's just a short-term goal.

What is Putin's long-term aim?

Four compelling theories exist, and while there is almost certainly some truth to all of them, it is the fourth — that Putin was pulled into invading by a crisis whose momentum is beyond his control — that is both the most plausible and the most frightening.

1) Putin wants to annex eastern Ukraine 

This is the big fear: that Putin will do in eastern Ukraine what he did in Crimea in March, occupying the region militarily and then declaring it to be part of Russia.

The evidence for this is two-fold.

First, Putin wouldn't go to such great lengths to defend the rebels unless he really wanted them to hold that ground, and he's been hinting ominously for weeks that he may have to intervene to save eastern Ukrainians against the fascist Ukrainian army (this is a fiction, to be clear).

Second, Russian forces just opened a second front far south of rebel-held territory, in the Ukrainian coastal area near the town of Novoazovsk.

It looks like maybe they are trying to open a route from the rebel-held areas around Donetsk and Luhansk to the Black Sea — either to open supply lines or to make it a more viable slice of territory for annexation.

The evidence against this is that, even for Putin, it would be just bananas crazy.

No one wants to admit this, but as illegal and hugely offensive as Russia's annexation of Crimea was, the region has a large Russian ethnic population, a real degree of preexisting pro-Russia sentiment, and a bizarre history by which Russia handed it over to Ukraine during the Cold War.

That is not to say that Russia's annexation of Crimea was at all acceptable — it was not — but world leaders were only willing to go so far to oppose it.

Eastern Ukrainians are majority ethnic Ukrainian and appear far less okay with the idea of a hostile Russian invasion.

There is no historical or demographic case for Donetsk as part of Russia, and world leaders have made very clear that they see Russian intervention there as far more offensive than the annexation of Crimea.

2) Putin wants to maintain a perpetual crisis in eastern Ukraine 

It looked, in the first months of Putin's meddling in eastern Ukraine, like this was the aim: not to annex outright, but just to foment enough chaos there that Ukraine would be unable to fully break from Russia's orbit; that the low-level violence would be Moscow's gun to Ukraine's head.

The Ukraine crisis began, after all, when Ukrainians protested en masse in autumn 2013 to push their government away from Russia and toward Europe, something that Putin fears.

The evidence for this is that Putin has long pushed specific policy requests for the Ukrainian government as part of peace negotiations.

The biggest is for Ukraine to adopt a federal system, which would allow province-level Ukrainian officials in more pro-Russia areas greater autonomy, and thus more room for Russian influence.

The other bit of evidence is that Russia has used this strategy before to force its influence in former Soviet states.

As Clinton-era Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott tweeted, "Putin's strategy in Ukraine includes creating 'frozen conflicts' in east, much as Russia's done in Georgia, Moldova, and Azerbaijan."

In this thinking, Putin is not invading to annex eastern Ukraine, but to protect the Russian-backed rebels that were in danger of being overrun by the Ukrainian military, so that he could keep his destabilizing influence there.

3) Putin wants to force peace a deal that favors him 

Before Russia invaded, the Ukrainian military was looking awfully close to overrunning the rebels.

Had that happened, Putin would have lost his ability to kick up trouble in eastern Ukraine — and thus lost a lot of leverage with the Ukrainian government.

All Putin would have to show for his trouble would be a Russian economy devastated by economic sanctions.

Maybe, then, this is Putin's last, desperate attempt to salvage something from the crisis by escalating it beyond what he knows the West can tolerate.

The Ukrainian military is too weak to defend against Russia's, after all, and there's no way NATO will intervene and risk World War Three over the status of Luhansk.

So perhaps Putin's ambition is to force Ukraine, the US, and Europe to accept some sort of peace deal that will grant Russia some face-saving concessions.

4) Putin, boxed in by his own rhetoric and earlier escalation, has simply lost control 

This seems the most likely: that Putin did not choose to invade eastern Ukraine, so much as he was pulled into it by his own rhetoric, his own propaganda, and the degree to which he attached his political legitimacy to the crisis.

This is the only way that the invasion really makes sense.

Even if Russia's invasion of eastern Ukraine achieves the best possible outcome for Putin (maybe that means annexation, maybe it means Western and Ukrainian concessions), the long-term consequences will be so dire for Putin and Russia that it could not possibly be worthwhile.

There is one place where the invasion does make rational sense: in the fantasy world that Putin has constructed in Kremlin propaganda and Russian state media.

The official Russian narrative, which is disturbingly popular among Russians, is that Ukrainians are crying out for Russian liberation from the fascistic, American-run puppet regime in Kiev.

The narrative also says that Russia is not just saving fellow Russian-speakers in Donetsk but is fulfilling its destiny as a great power, retaking the dignity that was lost with the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union.

The stakes are high for Putin personally.

Since taking power in 2000, he has governed through an implicit deal with the Russian people, one that has proven generally popular: he delivers high economic growth, and Russians accept some curbs to political and individual rights.

But then the economy began to slow, and in March 2012 a small but significant number of Russians protested against Putin's sham reelection, and he shifted strategy.

Since then, Putin has based his legitimacy less on generating economy growth and more on stirring up old-style Russian nationalism.

That appears to have been a big part of what drove his invasion of Crimea and his instigation of a rebellion in eastern Ukraine, which have been hugely popular in Russia.

To juice that popularity, Russian state media has relentlessly and shamelessly fear-mongered about the supposed threats in Ukraine and praised great leader Vladimir Putin for standing up to the West and to the Ukrainian fascists there. Putin, unable to resist, repeatedly threatened a Russian humanitarian intervention.

All of that paid of nicely for Putin, until it looked like his rebels were about to be expelled by the Ukrainian military, which would have been a disastrous humiliation for him and a repudiation of the nationalism on which he has increasingly based his legitimacy.

It would have left him without the nationalism and certainly without an economy, which is nearing recession.

Meanwhile, far-right nationalist voices within the Russian media and Putin's government have been urging him to escalate.

So, no other way out, he did.

If this is truly what is driving Putin, it means he may well be operating without a clear strategy or objective in mind.

If one of the world's largest militaries is invading just to invade, then it is not at all clear when the tanks will stop rolling, or what sort of political compromise or concession would turn them back.

Putin is not crazy, but he may have created a crisis with an internal momentum so great that it has broken beyond his control.

That is a truly scary possibility.