The Cypriot strain of Greek–Euro
disease is proving to be quite a test for the European Union.
Deficits,
debt and political paralysis are the big reasons, but no one can ignore
the island’s unresolved political division. Cronyism is another reason
for Cyprus’ terrible financial situation. Basically, three big Cypriot
banks are all in trouble for risky loans, with the riskiest investment
Greek government bonds. Two of these big banks had losses equal to a
quarter of Cyprus’ annual GDP. The banks, however, control deposits
worth four to five times the annual Cypriot GDP. Why? Cyprus is a
banking haven. They have comfortable political deals with the Cypriot
government (the cronyism).
Pay back for the political comfort included
investing in Greece, since Greece is the official (ie, Greek half of
Cyprus) Cypriot government’s biggest backer. And that gets back to the
island’s division. Both Turk and Greek Cypriots say they favor a
negotiated settlement. But years of talks about talks, followed by years
of on and off talks about ending the partition, have not produced a
final settlement. The current leader of the Turkish Cypriot sector (also
known as the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus) prefers a confederal
relationship with Greek Cypriots. That would mean the Turkish sector
would operate with relative autonomy. Several Greek Cypriot leaders
favor what the UN calls bicommunal federation, which gives more power to
the central government. That sounds a lot like the UN plan which Greek
Cypriots rejected in the 2004 plebiscite. Meanwhile, the government of
Greece and the government of (Greek) Cyprus both recently rejected a
request by the Turkish Cypriot government that it be given observer
status in the European Union. A negotiated settlement remains a long
ways away. At least Greece and Turkey are no longer threatening war over
Cyprus, mainly because Greek is in big economic trouble and Turkey is
not. (Austin Bay)
April 18, 2013: The German government is on the verge of
approving a new bailout agreement for Cyprus. The lower house of
Germany’s parliament approved a $12 billion bailout package put together
by the European Union. Cyprus, however, may need another $12 billion or
so.
Over 30 migrants working on a strawberry farm in Nea Manolada,
Greece (Peloponnesian peninsula) were wounded by the farm foreman in a
bizarre shooting incident. Police quickly arrested the foreman and also
the farm owner, but even in a country beset by economic problems, the
migrant shootings has become an instant national scandal. Some 200
migrant workers were protesting unpaid wages. The majority of the
workers were from Bangladesh. The farm foreman began shooting at the
crowd. He claimed the workers threatened him. Fortunately, no one was
killed. Greek agriculture still employs many migrant workers but it was
the claim of unpaid wages that resonated with the Greek public. Violence
against migrant workers and illegal migrants is another touchy subject
in Greece, too. Several ultra-nationalist groups claim that Greece is
threatened by foreign workers.
Greek human rights groups claim that
anti-foreigner violence is rising and attribute the violence to
increasingly militant ultra-nationalist militias and gangs which support
the militias’ political agenda. Some of the new ultra-nationalist
militias appear to have attracted members who were not too long ago
members of violent anarchist groups who were opposed to the Greek
government. If this is true, it would not be the first time Europe has
seen this occur.
EU-mediated talks between Serbia and Kosovo have been
suspended. However, EU diplomats indicated that some progress had been
made on several difficult issues. The EU says that normal relations
between Serbia and Kosovo is a requirement for Serbia to begin the EU
ascension process.
April 17, 2013: Turkey says it is on track to restore full
diplomatic relations with Israel. It is believed Turkish-Israeli
relations would return to what they were before the Mavi Marmara
incident in May 2010 (when Israeli commandos boarded the Turkish ship
and several Turkish activists were killed).
Israel recently apologized
for this. As Turkish-Israeli relations declined, Israel began discussing
improving relations with Greece, to include military cooperation.
Syria’s civil war is the driver in the recent improvement in
Turkish-Israeli relations.
As part of its commitment to reform the budget, the current
Greek government has made tax collecting a priority. That means
arresting and trying tax cheats. One of the biggest names to be arrested
was a former Greek finance minister, Yannos Papantoniou. He served as a
Socialist Party finance minister and national economic planner from
1994 to 2003. A court granted Papantoniou bail after he admitted to the
court that he had falsified his tax returns. He also hid money in
foreign banks to avoid taxes. One of the Greek public’s biggest gripes
is that the rich and politically-connected either did not pay taxes or
escaped prosecution when they were caught. The new government has
assured the people that this has changed. That remains to be seen.
April 16, 2013: On May 1, the Moldovan government will
establish new border checkpoints between Moldova and the breakaway
state-let of Transdnistra. The decision is very controversial and has
already sparked negative reactions in Russia and in Transdnistra. The
government of Transdnistra contended that Moldova will be treating some
Trandsnitrians as foreigners and, well, that is precisely the point.
Moldova appears to have concluded that Russia will never let it resolve
the problem with Transdnistra so it is going to accept the loss of the
tiny region and seal the border. This is supposed to appeal to the EU.
Moldova wants to join the EU and if it does it will be on the EU’s
eastern border. It wants to demonstrate that it can control that border.
Transdnistra has become a sanctuary for gangsters and worse.
The government of Turkey announced that its Disaster and
Emergency Management agency (AFAD) will open a refugee camp specifically
for Syrian Christians who have fled Syria. The camp will be located
about 50 kilometers north of the Syria-Turkey border, near the Mor
Abraham Syriac Monastery (outside the Turkish town of Midyat). The
decision was based on discussions with Christian church leaders who said
that local Christian churches in Turkey were harboring Syrian Christian
refugees. The refugees had told the church leaders that they were
afraid to enter refugee camps which were dominated by Syrian Sunni
Muslim refugees.
April 11, 2013: The legacy of Communist oppression continues
to haunt Bulgaria. Bulgaria’s Dossier Commission recently reported that a
state deputy minister of economy and energy worked with the
Communist-era State Security ministry (ie, secret police). The Dossier
Commission is tasked with ferreting out former secret police officers,
security agent and collaborators who worked for the State Security
ministry or various Communist-era military intelligence organizations
which were part of the Communist internal security apparatus. A
spokesman for the Economy and Energy Ministry, however, defended the
accused deputy minister and contended that he had passed a 2008
investigation. The Dossier Commission replied that it had found new
evidence. Bulgaria’s Communist-era secret police frequently used
murder, torture and repression. Post-Communist governments have promised
to exclude members of the secret police but unfortunately, many people
(and a number of them post-Communist politicians) secretly collaborated
with the secret police.
April 9, 2013: A crazed gunmen armed with an automatic pistol
killed 13 people in the Serb town of Velika Ivanca (50 kilometers
southeast of Belgrade). Serb authorities described the incident as a
rampage.
April 8, 2013: Several thousand demonstrators in Istanbul,
Turkey protested against the Ergenekon conspiracy trials. Police finally
broke up the demonstration using water cannon and tear gas. The
demonstrators objected to a recent demand by prosecutors that 64 of the
some 300 accused Ergenekon conspirators be given life sentences. Some of
the demonstrators reported chanted that they were Mustafa Kemal’s
soldiers. The chant refers to Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the founder of
Turkey’s secular republic, which the demonstrators believe the current
government, run by the Islamist Justice and Development Party (AKP),
intends to undermine. Retired military chief of staff Ilker Basbug is
among the accused and Basbug is widely regarded as being an innocent man
and a Turkish patriot.
The Ergenekon conspiracy is complex, even by
conspiracy theory standards. Basically it alleges that a secret state
dominated by the military exists in Turkey and that this secret state
intended to launch a coup against the AKP government.
April 5, 2013: The UN recently proposed a number of options
for settling the Name War between Greece and Macedonia. Unfortunately,
the Greek government has indicated that it will not support any of these
proposals. Greece insists that Macedonia call itself the FYROM (Former
Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia). Macedonia wants to call itself the
Republic of Macedonia. Apparently one of the options under consideration
was calling Macedonia the Northern Republic of Macedonia.
April 3, 2013: Bosnia expelled two Iranian diplomats. The
government declared the Iranians to be not wanted (personae non grata).
The government did not give explicit reasons for the expulsion but said
the Iranians violated diplomatic rules. The Bosnian government is very
concerned about radical Islamic activity in the country. Most Bosnian
Muslims (Bosniaks) are overwhelmingly Sunni Muslims and Iran is
predominantly Shia Muslim. However, the Iranian Islamic revolutionary
government has a history of using any Muslim population to create
turmoil. Bosnia’s action is similar to steps taken by Kosovo and
Albania to resist radical Islamist infiltration. Both Kosovo and Albania
have predominantly Muslim populations but they stress that they are
European Muslims.
April 1, 2013: The Greek ultra- nationalist party Golden Dawn
(Chrysi Avyi) announced that it is looking for international alliances
with similar parties. Since its strong showing in the last national
election the party has opened offices in Canada, Australia, the U.S. and
Germany. It already touts its link to a British neo-Nazi group. Golden
Dawn is frequently called a neo-Nazi party. The label fits.
Like Adolf
Hitler’s German Nazi (National Socialist) party, Golden Dawn is rabidly
ultra-nationalist and favors government-directed economics. Golden Dawn
party members tend to disdain small businessmen and women. What is
ironic is that Golden Dawn has made a name for itself by attacking
Germany and Germans, since Germany is the European Union’s most powerful
economy and biggest lender. Recent public polls show Golden Dawn has
the support of 11 to 12 percent of the Greek electorate.
March 29, 2013: Turkey and Romania have signed what the
countries call an enhanced strategic cooperation agreement. The latest
pact is really a supplement to a 2011 deal and it describes a series of
programs diplomats and agencies from both countries have been discussing
since 2011.
Economics is the big driver in the agreement Turkey is
Romania’s largest trading partner outside of the EU. Turkey has over six
billion dollars in commercial investments in Romania. There are also
security cooperation components to the agreement, but both nations are
already members of NATO.
Romania and Turkey have reportedly discussed
developing common military training programs for personnel using
specialized operated by both nations. For example, Romania is acquiring
F-16s, which Turkey already operates.
March 22, 2013: EU officials reported that Bosnia is not
prepared to conduct a new national census scheduled for October 2013.
The response ought to be, what else is new? Bosnia was supposed to
conduct a new census over a decade ago. Five years ago the government
agreed to conduct a census but has so far failed to come up with a plan
to conduct it. The reason for the delay is pure Balkanite: fear that how
the poll is conducted or that questions in the poll with upset various
ethnic and religious groups. There is also another concern: some ethnic
political groups may discover that the people they claim to represent
no longer live in Bosnia. This will affect the already fragile balance
of power in the country.
March 18, 2013: The government of Cyprus is considering
seizing around ten percent of the bank deposits in Cyprus worth over
100,000 euros (around $130,000). Seven percent of all accounts worth
less than 100,000 euros would also be seized. The seizure would help
fund a Euro-zone bailout and supposedly help Cyprus avert governmental
bankruptcy. When word leaked that this was being considered, a run on
Cypriot banks began. Cypriot ATMs quickly ran out of money. Commercial
banks quickly stopped permitting electronic fund transfers. The bank
deposit grab requires parliamentary approval. Around seven billion
dollars (from private accounts) is at stake. An overwhelming number of
Cypriots called the potential government seizure a betrayal of trust.
The government of the United Kingdom said that it would compensate any
losses sustained by 3,500 British military personnel stationed in the
British sovereign bases areas in Cyprus.
March 12, 2013: In early February the Turkish government
reported that a left-wing Turkish group was responsible for the suicide
bomb attack on the U.S. embassy in Ankara. The attack took place on
February 1. In that attack the bomber and a Turkish security guard were
killed. Sure enough, the left-wing Revolutionary Peoples Liberation
Army-Front (DHKP-C) claimed credit. The DHKP-C was formed in 1978 and
is virulently anti-American. Ironically, the attack by a Turkish
leftist has resonance in Greece. The Greek government regards left-wing
terrorists as a potent threat. The Greek government recently estimated
that some 3,000 people are members of extremist left-wing groups that
have agendas similar to that of the DHKP-C. Greek security officials
believe that somewhere between 300 and 500 of these activists have been
involved in violent attacks. Most of the radicals live in Athens and
Thessalonica. The Greek government further classifies 50 of the hard
core violent extremists as urban guerrillas or active terrorists.
Several members of the terrorist cadre are believed to have been members
of the November 17 (Revolutionary Organization November 17, or N17)
left-wing terror group which haunted Greece from 1975 until its
dissolution in 2002. One of the groups suspected of having N17 ties is
the Conspiracy of Cells of Fire (sometimes called the Conspiracy of Fire
Nuclei). The government suspects this outfit conducted at least a dozen
major attacks between 2008 and 2012. Other violent left-wing groups
include the Revolutionary Struggle (EA) and the Revolutionary Sect (SE).
March 6, 2013: One of the biggest issues in Greece is the
declining defense budget. The 2012 defense budget was around $7.5
billion. Though it is already 2013, the defense budget is still in flux.
The Greek Air Force has already cut back on flight hours because it
cannot afford spare parts and fuel.
March 5, 2013: The Turkish military announced current
strength figures; 678,617 people serving. There are 347 general and
admirals. 33 of the general officers serve with the Turkish Gendarmerie
(paramilitary police forces).
March 1, 2013: Conspiracy theories about rebellions and army
in coups in Greece are on the rise. The rumors follow a month of wildcat
strikes and reports of violence throughout the country. One Greek media
source reported that 15 armed incidents (ie, significant armed
incidents) occurred in the last half of February. The incidents included
machine gun bullets fire at the headquarters of the New Democracy party
(lead party in the coalition government).
February 28, 2013: Facing increased protests against
increasing electricity costs, the Bulgarian government called for new
elections in May. The European Union issued a report which criticized
the Greek government for failing to correct significant deficiencies in
its tax collection procedures. Improving tax collection is a bailout
loan requirement.
The government of Turkey arrested a former commander of all
Turkish Army land forces, General Erdal Ceylanoglu. The government
claimed that Ceylanoglu played a role in the 1997 coup which toppled an
Islamist-led government.
February 26, 2013: - The president of Kosovo said that the
Serbian government had agreed to disband a security organization it
sponsored in northern Kosovo. The Serbian government, however, denied
such a deal had been made and also denied that it supports clandestine
security forces in northern Kosovo. The Serb denial that the special
Kosovar Serb police force exists flies in the face of years of European
Union observer reports that the force is real and is paid for by Serbia.
The force operates out of the Serbian sector of the town of Mitrovica
(northern Kosovo).
February 25, 2013: The government of Saudi Arabia has
reportedly purchased a large quantity of infantry weapons from Croatia.
The weapons are for Syrian rebels who are fighting against the regime of
Bashar al-Assad. At least one shipment of the Saudi-purchased Croat
weapons was delivered to the rebels in December 2012. The weapons were
shipped to Jordan in December 2012 and then were distributed to various
rebel organizations. U.S. government sources have indicated that the
report is genuine and that the shipments to the rebels are small
compared to the support Iran provides the Assad regime. Croatia has
large stocks of Cold War-era infantry weapons. Yugoslav-made AK-47 type
assault rifles were regarded as superior to Russian AKs.
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