Winning: Epic Fail For The Arab Spring

February 24, 2014:  After the 2008 defeat of al Qaeda in Iraq, and the 90 percent decline in al Qaeda attacks there it was believed that Islamic terrorism was on the ropes. But terrorist attacks, most of them by Moslem religious radicals, more than doubled, from 7,200 in 2009 to 18,500 in 2013. The chief cause of this growth in Islamic terrorist activity was state sponsored Islamic terrorism by Pakistan and the "Arab Spring" uprisings that began in early 2011.

 

The Pakistani policy of covertly supporting and encouraging Islamic terrorist groups began in the late 1970s and after September 11, 2001 were increasingly out of Pakistani control. Pakistan found itself in the position of continuing to support Islamic terrorists who attacked India and Afghanistan while fighting a growing number of disaffected terrorist groups at home that had declared war on Pakistan. 

 

The Arab Spring uprisings were a popular movement to replace the many dictatorships and monarchies that have long been the cause of most of the poverty and unhappiness that have made the Middle East such an economic, educational, scientific, military and cultural backwater. But these uprisings made the mistake of accepting Islamic terrorist groups, who had long been trying to overthrow all these authoritarian rulers, as allies. The Islamic terrorists considered the secular democrats who sparked and sustained the Arab Spring as competitors for power, not allies in creating new democracies. This misreading of the Islamic terrorist groups (most of whom consider democracy un-Islamic) proved to be very expensive in terms of lives, property damage and economic losses in general.  These popular rebellions led to the fall of several long time dictatorships, and a rush to reform (or give the appearance of such) by most other Arab governments. The Arab Spring also proved a major boost for Islamic terrorist morale and numbers.

 

The result was a huge spike in Islamic terrorist violence. For the Arab Spring countries it meant prolonged unrest and more deaths. Worse, it isn't over, especially in Syria, Yemen, Bahrain and Algeria. Over 160,000 have died so far in the Arab Spring countries, and millions more wounded, imprisoned or driven from their homes. The financial cost, so far, has been over a trillion dollars. Most of that is the economic damage from shrinking GDP. The rest is destruction of buildings and possessions. The lost wages and reduced economic activity have been particularly difficult for populations that were poor to begin with. Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Syria, Jordan, Lebanon and Bahrain have suffered most from the unrest, losing up to a third of their GDP because of the Arab Spring economic disruption. Then there is the cost in cash for wealthier monarchies and dictatorships that have spent money (sometimes borrowed) to placate their restless populations. The money spent here is not all Arab. The Assad dictatorship of Syria has been kept afloat by billions of dollars in support from Iran, and much smaller amounts from Russia. There has also been some unrest in non-Arab Moslem nations because of Arab Spring and that has cost billions to deal with. 

 

In the midst of all this revolutionary exuberance thousands of very hard core Islamic terrorists were released from prison. The overthrown governments were bad in many ways, but they were good at catching (and often promptly killing) Islamic terrorists who threatened them. This was the main reason al Qaeda decided in the 1990s to make war on the United States and the West. These foreigners were easier targets than the thugs (or tribes) with flags back home. By recycling all these imprisoned Islamic terrorists after 2011 the terrorists now had the ability to do a lot more damage. As usual most of it was done against fellow Moslems. The Islamic world in general and the Arab world in particular has long been reluctant to confront the most dangerous aspect of their religion; the enthusiasm for terrorism and savagery in the name of God and the greater good. This has never worked and those who point this out tend to get shouted down or killed for preaching heresy. Islam needs some serious reform but few Moslems are eager to rebel against the tyranny of religious extremism. 

 

The "Arab Spring" created several unexpected popular uprisings against dictators and monarchs. Most sort-of succeeded (Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, Libya), while others failed or never got going (Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Algeria, Morocco, Lebanon) and Syria is not over but the rebels are still a contender despite Iranian intervention. None of these uprisings developed into a true war. The most violent, in Libya, was won by armed civilians assisted by NATO smart bombs and warships. Libya, like the other uprisings involving heavy combat, were a collection of dozens of separate battles over a large area. 

 

The uprisings were mostly about corruption and the resulting widespread poverty and bad government. For that reason, the Saudi Arabian monarchy was able to buy its way out of an uprising. Yemen mutated into low level civil war, while Syria grew into a countrywide guerilla war. Egypt and Tunisia were over quickly but subsequent elections put Islamic conservatives in power, and then out of power as the voters realized what the Islamic radicals (a religious dictatorship). 

 

In Egypt the military was able to maintain its corrupt grip on the economy. It's unclear how this will turn out because the Islamic and secular rebel groups are spending most of their time going after each other. Indeed, the biggest problem was that these dictatorships were not just the single dictator but that the segment of the population that kept the dictator in power and were well rewarded for doing that. These privileged groups were not eager to flee or give up their wealth. The dictator's supporters are striving to retain or regain their power. The Old Order has substantial economic and political resources and is willing to use them to retain power and wealth.

 

This arrangement was common to all Muslem nations, not just the Arab ones. Islam has a particular fondness for preserving ancient practices and traditions. Not all Muslems agree with this but the most traditional believers have long relied on violence and terrorism to block social, political and economic change. Thus the Muslem nations tend to be quite poor and backward compared to the rest of the world. 

 

The Arab Spring is part of another reform movement in that is trying to address the root causes of poverty, corruption and mismanagement that are so common in the Islamic world. Naturally, a lot of vested interests, both secular and religious, are resisting these changes. The worst of the opposition is an ancient one, religious fanatics selling a radical solution that not enough Moslems want to buy into.

Counter Terrorism - Arab Spring And The Major Fail

After two years the Arab Spring revolution has developed a bitter aftertaste. Unemployment is up and corruption is still around in countries where the rebels succeeded. The incompetent and abusive police forces are still on the job in those nations. While the government has changed, the families that control most of the economy are still around. This concentration of economic power in a few families is common in many countries, particularly in the Arab world. The problem with the Arab Spring is that the focus was the anger was too narrow, concentrating on the current dictators and not the fundamental problems that allowed all those dictators to flourish in the first place.

 

Islamic radicalism has been a part of Islam since the beginning but has never been able to sustain control over governments. That’s in large part because Moslems are divided over whether it is better to be ruled by a religious dictatorship and according to Islamic law (interpreted by religious scholars who act as a final appeals court) or by some other system. Islamic radicals consider the alternatives (secular dictatorship, monarchy and democracy) un-Islamic. Many Arab countries had tried secular dictatorship (usually accompanied by socialism) after World War II. This turned out to be a major failure and most of the Arab Spring governments overthrown were secular dictatorships. Monarchies have been more successful as they have been the oldest and most successful form of government in the region. Democracy has had a hard time in the Middle East because it requires a civil society (people willing to work honestly for the common good) and the pervasive corruption in the region made that very difficult. The religious dictatorship has never worked, also done in by the corruption and tribalism but it has survived as an impossible idea. 

 

The big change has been the tolerant attitude towards Islamic radicalism by the new Arab Spring governments. A major reason for the renewed vigor of Islamic terror organizations in the last year is because the Egyptian, Libyan, Syrian, and Tunisian jails were emptied of political prisoners after the rebels replaced the dictators. The freed prisoners included thousands of Islamic radicals, many of them Islamic terrorists who have gone back to the business of being very bad. 

 

Even the Islamic conservatives, who tended to stay out of jail by toning down their religious and social prejudices, have become a problem. Mobs of Islamic conservative men have been attacking women’s schools and any establishment that serves alcohol (even if mainly to tourists). Women who don’t dress very conservatively are confronted and sometimes beaten. These Islamic conservative groups want Islamic law imposed on everyone and are not waiting for laws to be passed. Anyone who opposes this vigilantism is accused of being hostile to Islam and attacked even more vigorously. 

 

Most of the Islamic terrorists let out of prison were those who had experience, especially management skills. In the last decade the U.S. and Israel have put thousands of skilled Islamic terrorists out of action (dead or imprisoned). Arab dictatorships were particularly effective at finding and killing to imprisoning Islamic radicals and have been doing this vigorously since the 1990s. All this led to a steady decline in the number of Islamic terrorist attacks over the last decade. But with so many jailed Islamic terrorists freed, the mayhem is on the increase again.

 

Already, police in Arab countries are seeking to arrest some of those freed radicals for crimes committed since they got out, or for general bad behavior over a long period of time. Despite that experience, countries still undergoing Arab Spring rebellions (like Syria) are under pressure to let Islamic radicals out of prison once the dictatorship is overthrown. In part this is because many Islamic radical groups are taking part in the fighting and expect to get something more than a “thank you” for their efforts. Indeed, Syrian rebels are concerned about the Islamic radicals attempting to install a religious dictatorship after the current secular Assad dictatorship is overthrown. Whatever the case, Islamic radicals expect a new government to let imprisoned Islamic terrorists to go free. 

Even if the new government wants to keep Islamic terrorists and criminals imprisoned, the chaos that accompanies a revolution often leads to many jail breaks. Moreover, many of the non-terrorist criminals and political prisoners are recruited into Islamic radical groups while in prison. Western and Arab intelligence agencies are identifying more and more of these former prisoners in terrorist hot sports like Pakistan, Yemen, Mali, and Libya, including those who were not originally jailed for Islamic terrorism.

‘Arab Spring plunges Middle East back into 1950s for Israel’

The rapid change in the Arab world is turning Middle East into a region where peace is not possible. Israel is confused and has no strategy for the shift, which pushes its neighborhood half a century back in time, says Israeli politics professor.

­What is worse, there is not much Israel can do to affect what is happening in its hostile environment, Professor Uzi Rabi, Director of the Moshe Dayan Centre for Middle-Eastern studies at Tel Aviv Univirsity, told RT.

“Israel cannot influence nor do something with that ever-changing region now on top of the Arab Spring. I think that Israel is confused. Israel just has to come up with a kind of strategy or at least a set of tactics on how to deal with this new situation. Basically it has become a much more difficult Middle East for Israel because Egypt and Turkey – one-time friendly and staunch supporters of Israel and the West in the region – are not there anymore,” he said.

The confusion is evident in Israeli government’s attitude towards Syria. Syrian President Bashar Assad may not be as good a friend of Israel as former Egyptian leader Hosni Mubarak was. Nevertheless, Israel enjoyed years of a pretty-much silent Golan Heights on border with Syria. Now the country is in turmoil, with the government likely to fall in a matter of a year, expects Professor Rabi.

“This is a state that could easily become what we call a failed state, which means a state that cannot control all of its territory, and more often than not you have some flanks or regions that are becoming no-man’s lands. We had had it in Libya already after the toppling of Gaddafi,” he said.

“Al-Qaeda and other radical groups are capitalizing on that kind of a situation. And wherever you have a weak central state – and this is exactly the kind of a by-product of the toppling of a dictator – we are going to have a bunch of power centers,” the researcher added.

The lack of stability in the region pushes it backwards in terms of security and diplomacy, from the Israeli point of view Rabi said.

“Israel will find the Middle East as a kind of an area where you can’t think of a comprehensive peace as was the case before, but you just try for having what I would call interim or partial agreements. I think that we are getting back to 1949 or 1950s, when nobody talked about peace,” he explained.