The April 15th terrorist in the
United States (Boston) has made the world more aware of Russia’s
terrorism problem in the Caucasus. The two Boston terrorists (the
Tsarnaev brothers) were Chechens from Dagestan. Russia had alerted the
American FBI and CIA about the elder brother in 2011. Russia had no hard
evidence but their intelligence had picked up some data on the elder
Tsarnaev brother’s interest in Islamic radicalism. In the United States
the FBI and CIA are being grilled over why this vague tip did not result
in the April 15 attack being prevented. One defense that will probably
be heard (more likely from the CIA, which has long monitored the
Caucasus) is that there are a lot Islamic radical Chechens these days,
but few to them proceed to become Islamic terrorists and fewer still
attempt to make attacks outside Russia. That has given Russia lots of
problems in the last two decades.
Despite this formidable terrorist threat the security forces
(local and national police plus specialized counter-terror forces from
the police and military) have managed to reduce the terrorism in the
Caucasus, but not eliminate it. Chechnya, Dagestan and Ingushetia are
still full of nationalist and Islamic radical gangs that pursue criminal
activities (theft, kidnapping, extortion) as well as frequent attacks
on government officials. Local resentment of Russian rule goes back to
the 19th century, when Russia conquered the Caucasus, in part to halt
the raids by criminal gangs into Russia. It's an old problem made worse
by the current popularity of Islamic terrorism among young Moslem men.
The violence emanating from the Caucasus has long generated an animosity
towards Caucasians (especially the Moslem ones) by most Russians.
Refugees from the Caucasus violence often face violence and
discrimination when they settle in other parts of Russia.
The current situation developed when the Chechens tried,
throughout the 1990s, to maintain their independence from Russia in the
aftermath of the Soviet Union dissolving in 1991. But the Chechens could
not govern themselves, and Chechnya became a hideout for numerous
criminal gangs. These guys started a kidnapping, robbery and extortion
crime wave all over southern Russia. In 1999, Russia, now led by
Vladimir Putin, invaded, to reassert its authority and reduce the
Chechen criminality in southern Russia and the Caucasus. Several years
of bloody fighting followed, until a majority of the population agreed
to shut down the gangsters. For the last few years, Chechnya has been at
peace, at least by local standards.
Many of the criminals and Islamic militants fled to
neighboring "republics" (as the semi-autonomous ethnic enclaves in
Russia are called); mainly Ingushetia to the west, and Dagestan to the
east.
Dagestan was able to handle the influx of Chechen gunmen, at least
at first. But in Ingushetia, the violence kept getting worse. Some of
the violence was just criminal activity, because tiny (population half a
million) Ingushetia has an unemployment rate of over 50 percent. But
there are also Islamic radicals who used to operate in Chechnya. And
then there are a lot of guns in the hands of the population, so it's
often difficult to tell who shot who and why.
The Russian government blames a lot of the unrest on local
officials who, while pro-Russian (and dominated by a former KGB
officials) are generally inept and corrupt. As these things go, the
national government won't intervene unless the gangs based in Ingushetia
began raiding into southern Russia. Corruption and feuds (between clans
and ethnic groups) causes a lot of the violence, which is organized and
focused via gangs of Islamic radicals. Most of the 4.2 million people
in Chechnya, Ingushetia and Dagestan are Moslem, and never much liked
Russians. Although the Russians have reduced the violence over the last
decade, it persists, much to the embarrassment of the Russian
government. This volatile mixing of organized Russians and unruly
Caucasus minorities has been a problem for centuries (ever since the
Russian empire reached the Caucasus two centuries ago.) Many of the
largely Moslem Caucasian tribes saw it as their right to raid the
Christian Russians (who had lots of stuff to steal). The Russians fought
back, escalating to Cossacks and eventually the army and violence has
persisted ever since. During World War II the Russians mistrusted the
Chechens so much that they moved most of the Chechen population to
Central Asia in 1944 (killing many in the process). Over the next two
decades those exiles were allowed back to the Caucasus but both Russians
and Chechens have not forgotten. That a couple of Chechens would carry
out an attack in the United States (killing a woman, a child and a
student from China) does not surprise a lot of Russians, and disturbs a
lot of Chechens who would like to move away from their outlaw
reputation.
What's surprising is that there aren't more attacks by Russian
Moslems. Some 14 percent of Russians are Moslem, but only some of those
in the Caucasus (where a few percent of the Russian population lives)
are really into Islamic radicalism and terrorism. Relations between Slav
Russians and the various ancient peoples of the Caucasus (which
includes Christians Georgians and Armenians, as well as Moslem Chechens
and dozens of other distinct ethnic groups) have been bad for centuries.
But as the Russians discovered in the 1990s, even allowing Chechens to
be independent did not solve the problem.
April 25, 2013: For the first time a Russian Air Force pilot
flew the new Russian stealth fighter the PAK-FA (comparable to the
American F-22). All previous flights had been handled by test pilots.
The PAK-FA is a joint development deal with India and is expected to
start production in three years. Six years ago India agreed to partner
with Russia in the development and production of a “Fifth Generation
Fighter.” The Russian-Indian effort is meant to build a fighter that can
give the American F-22 some competition. The PAK-FA looks a lot like
the F-22. The 37 ton PAK-FA is about the same weight as the F-22, and
has a similar shape.
April 24, 2013: In the south (Dagestan) police killed two Islamic terrorists.
April 23, 2013: The Russian Navy held several days of training
exercises in the Caspian Sea. Some twenty patrol boats, larger warships
and support vessels were involved. This was not just to improve skills,
but to send a message to Iran that Russian was still the primary naval
power in the Caspian. This message was also to calm Russian ally
Azerbaijan, which Iranian officials recently announced ought to be
annexed by Iran.
April 22, 2013: Islamic terror groups in the Caucasus
announced that they had nothing to do with two Chechens carrying out a
terror attack in the United States last week. The policy of Islamic
terrorists in the Caucasus has been to concentrate on attacking Russia,
But individual terrorists from the Caucasus have showed up in many other
areas (Pakistan and Syria in particular.)
April 18, 2013: President Putin threatened to fire several of
his department ministers if they did not find ways to carry out social
spending increases he had ordered. Letting incidents like this go
public, and actually carrying out increases in social spending, is one
way Putin maintains his high poll numbers. Putin also denied creating a
new version of the Soviet era dictatorship, but more Russians continue
to openly complain about the growing use of police state tactics.
April 17, 2013: A former Russian Army lieutenant was sentenced
to three years imprisonment for corruption while he was a company
commander two years ago. The bad lieutenant took bribes and extorted
money from his subordinates. While extreme, this sort of thing is not
unusual in the Russian military.
April 15, 2013: Russia has begun its semi-annual conscription
for the armed forces. This time the military needs to obtain 153,000
recruits. Because of a shrinking population the government was forced to
allow fewer exemptions (especially for students). Avoiding conscription
has turned into a big business with brokers available to advise parents
on whom to bribe and how much to offer to keep their son out of uniform
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