The Deathwatch Phase

The Syrian rebellion is now in its deathwatch phase. The government is doomed and its forces grow weaker every day. It’s only a matter of time before the government losses control of the entire country and surviving officials flee for sanctuary. Allies (Iran, Russia, China) have been quietly offering refuge to Assad and his senior aides. President Basher Assad keeps making public announcements that he has no intention of leaving. The same can’t be said about the several thousand senior officials he depends on to control the country. Many of these people have committed known criminal acts over the decades and have to fear rebel retribution if they are still in Syria when the rebels win. Many of these officials have already sent their families into exile and when these army and government leaders join their families in large numbers, you’ll know it’s the end. That is expected to happen within the next few months or weeks.

At the moment, the government is calling more and more of its most reliable troops back to Damascus to defend the capital. Despite weeks of government air and ground attacks, rebel gunmen and Islamic terrorists continue to operate inside Damascus. You can hear the gunfire and explosions from downtown where the ministries and major business headquarters are located. The second largest city (after Damascus), Aleppo, is almost completely under rebel control. That includes dozens of military bases and most of the weapons and munitions stored there. The government troops have died, been captured, deserted, or, most frequently, been moved to another part of the country.

The big fear in the West is that Assad may turn his chemical weapons (especially the nerve gas) over to Hezbollah or these weapons may be seized by rebel groups that are also Islamic terrorists intent on attacking the West and Israel. Hezbollah, as a creation of Iran (in the 1980s), could have gotten nerve gas from Iran at any time since then. But that stuff, if used, could be traced back to Iran with dire consequences for Iran. The Syrian stuff, created by a Syrian dictator recently removed from power, would be another matter. In any event, this is not a huge deal as nerve gas is vastly overrated as a terrorist (or military) weapon.

A more immediate problem for the victorious rebels is getting the economy going again. Many key officials (business owners and government officials) who took care of that will be gone after the rebel victory. As was discovered in Libya, putting the economy and government back together is not easy. The same can be said about restoring law and order. As in Libya, Syria will have dozens of major militias, and hundreds of smaller ones, all making demands on the new government and threatening violence if they don’t get their way. Rebel leaders, while still on speaking terms with each other, are already trying to work out the rules for a post-Assad Syria. 

Rebels have captured most of Morek, a town that controls the main road between Damascus and Aleppo (and the Turkish border). Some of the towns in this area are Christian and Alawite, and the government is offering weapons to the residents if they will form pro-government militias. This will complicate the security once the rebels win because these minorities long supported the Assads and benefitted from that. Many of the majority Sunnis will be looking for revenge once Assad is gone.

December 20, 2012: The UN admitted what it had long denied, that the Syrian revolution was an uprising of a largely Sunni population against a Shia (Alawite) minority and several other minorities. The UN also announced sanctions against two more Iranian transportations companies for moving weapons to Syria despite UN sanctions.

December 19, 2012: Rebels have captured most of the key towns in the central Syrian province of Hama. This sort of thing means the rebels control key roads, cutting government forces off from each other and cutting some military bases from supply. These troops begin running out of food and other essential items and their bases become easier to capture.

The UN is seeking $1.5 billion from donor countries. A third would go to about 20 percent of the population inside Syria who are refugees or cut off from food supplies. The rest of the money would go to help over 500,000 Syrian refugees in neighboring countries. About 40 percent of the refuges are in Turkey with the rest in Lebanon, Jordan, and Iraq.

December 18, 2012: About half the 112,000 Palestinians in a refugee camp (Yarmouk, actually a large town) south of Damascus have fled to avoid fighting and air force bombings. The Palestinian leadership is split between rebel and government supporters and the pro-government groups have been losing the battle. As of today, the rebels appear to control all of Yarmouk.

December 17, 2012: Rebels kidnapped two Russians and an Italian on a highway near the port city of Latakia. The rebels (who may be criminals pretending to be rebels) are demanding $700,000 ransom for the release of the three men.

Russia has sent four warships (two amphibious ships, a frigate, and a supply ship) to Syria, apparently to evacuate Russian citizens. The ships are apparently heading for Tartus, the major Syrian port.

A Syrian official told a Lebanese newspaper that he believed neither side could win. Government allies like Iran and Russia now believe the government will eventually lose. Iran is calling for a cease fire and negotiations but few of the rebel militias are interested in that. The rebels sense victory and don’t want to talk.

December 16, 2012: Trying to support pro-government Palestinian militias, air force planes bombed the Palestinian town (“refugee camp”) Yarmouk (south of Damascus).

December 15, 2012: Iranian military leaders protested the arrival of NATO Patriot missile batteries in Turkey. This is more media theater by the Iranians who are taking a big hit in the media because of Iranian support for the Assad government in Syria.

December 13, 2012: An American network (NBC) news reporter and three colleagues were kidnapped by a pro-government militia near the Turkish border. NBC and the other major media organizations agreed to keep quiet about the kidnapping, as this made it easier to negotiate with the kidnappers (who raise the price, and make more threats, the more publicity the event gets). Some web sites and pro-government foreign (Chinese and Russian) news organizations reported the kidnapping, but most Westerners were unaware of it. Rebel groups began looking for the captives and found them on the 17^th. The four escaped during the rebel attack on the kidnappers and got back into Turkey.

December 12, 2012:  The government fired six SCUD ballistic missiles at the Sheikh Suleiman military base outside Aleppo. SCUDs continued to be launched, one or two every few days. The warheads were apparently just explosives (Syrian SCUDS are also able to carry a chemical weapons warhead). Each missile is the equivalent of a half-ton bomb dropped from an aircraft. The base is spread out over 200 hectares (500 acres). SCUD is a Russian designed missile based on the German V-2 of World War II. In effect, SCUD is a perfected V-2 but still takes several hours to fuel and make ready for firing. The Syrian SCUDs are not particularly accurate, they are able to hit within a kilometer wide circle, at best. The Syrians are firing SCUDs (of which they have several hundred) because they fear the missiles might get captured, and the air force is running short of munitions and fuel for aircraft missions.

Bulgaria asks for permanent US troops presence – report

Bulgaria has asked the United States to place a permanent military force in the country aimed at strengthening security in the region and increasing their military cooperation, local media reports.

­Bulgarian Defense Minister Anu Anguelov has discussed the opening of a US military base in Novo Selo, near Sliven, with officials of the Pentagon in early December, reports Dneven Trud daily newspaper citing sources in the Bulgarian military.

Nothing has yet been set in ink, but if the deal is to go through, it could double the American troop numbers in the country, according to the report. 

If an agreement is reached, anti-war activist Brian Becker, argues it would surrender Sofia’s power to the US government, as troops pose “a threat to the national sovereignty of the people of Bulgaria because they have foreign military bases, and it incorporates Bulgaria, makes it more secure as part of an American political, economic as well as military formation. You really can't be a free country and free people and have foreign troops on your soil,” he told SW.

US troops have been present in Bulgaria for over six years under a Defense Cooperation Agreement signed by the both states in April 2006.  Under the arrangement, Americans are allowed to train their troops at four Bulgarian bases, which remain under Sofia’s command and under the Bulgarian flag. 

However, the presence of the US forces in Bulgaria is also an American “method” of securely “fastening the country and its economy and its political leaders to Washington both in terms of the incorporation of US military equipment, selling US military goods abroad, which is a big business here”, Becker says.

Such a military buildup will also threaten Russia, Becker added, as “there is a strong motive force to maintain the cold war even without the Soviet Union and to incorporate the countries of eastern and central Europe, the former Warsaw Pact countries into an American sphere of interest through the medium of NATO.”

The treaty also permits the US to use the bases “for missions in third country without a specific authorization from Bulgarian authorities.” 

Only 2500 troops are present in Bulgaria at the moment. They include armor, mechanized infantry and airborne infantry or light infantry

Iran - Panic Is Worse Than It Looks

The UN sanctions have cut government income sharply. This has caused enormous inflation and a sharp increase in unemployment. The government is being openly criticized for heavy spending (over $5 billion so far) to prop up the Assad dictatorship in Syria. Although the new sanctions and the loss of over a million barrels a day of oil exports has caused a lot of commotion inside Iran, it will not have a huge impact on the Iranian economy. Current GDP is about $480 billion a year and if the reduced oil exports continue for the rest of the year, GDP will be down about a percent for the year (versus growth of over five percent without sanctions). Iran has sufficient hard currency reserves to continue essential imports (food and other consumer goods) for 2-3 years. Despite lots of corruption by the ruling clerics and their families (who control or own about half the GDP), the other half of the economy is quite robust and productive. Most Iranians are angry at the corruption and harsh rule of the clerics, but about twenty percent of the population benefits from working for the clerics, and a lot of these supporters have weapons and are willing to kill to keep things as they are. So the majority grumbles and gets by as best they can.

Iranian secret police and intelligence agencies are telling their bosses (the senior clerics that run the country) that illegal labor organizations are organizing protests against the worsening economic conditions. This is happening despite a continuing crackdown on any pro-reform media. Hundreds of pro-reform journalists have been jailed, driven into exile or compelled to shut up over the last three years.

Most foreign airlines are cancelling service to Iran because the rapidly growing inflation there, and being forced to use the local currency, makes it unprofitable. The Iranian is being pressured to allocate scarce and expensive foreign currency to air transport operations otherwise Iran will lose most of its passenger and air freight service. Some Western maritime shipping firms are also halting service to Iran, for the same reasons.

American Internet security experts believe that recent Cyber War attacks against Arab and Western oil companies in the Persian Gulf area were carried out by Iran, or by hackers hired by Iran. This was believed to be part of a retaliation (for the economic sanctions against Iran) campaign. The hacker attacks were low-quality and do not appear to have done much damage.  The U.S. Department of Defense is investigating the attacks and said there would be retaliation.

Deteriorating economic conditions inside Iran make involvement with the illegal drug trade more attractive. In the last few days three border guards were killed by drug smugglers crossing the Pakistan border in the southwest. This drug war is fought out along a 1,700 kilometer border with Afghanistan and Pakistan. Over the last decade the government has spent $700 million to build barriers and sensors along this border, to make it more difficult for the drugs (largely opium, heroin and hashish) to get across. In the past six months some fifty tons of drugs have been seized. This was accompanied by several hundred casualties and even more arrests. This war has been going on for three decades and shows no signs of slowing down.

October 11, 2012: The Iran backed Hezbollah Shia radical militia in southern Lebanon admitted that it was responsible for sending an Iranian UAV into Israel on October 6th.  The Israelis detected the UAV coming in from the sea and after tracking it over Israeli territory for twenty minutes had an F-16 shoot it down when the UAV was over a rural area and headed for Israel's nuclear complex at Dimona.  While some Palestinians claimed the UAV came from Gaza, Israeli officials said this was not the case, leaving Lebanon (and Hezbollah) as the likely source. Hezbollah has been using Iranian UAVs for years. This particular flight was apparently to test the Israeli ability to detect a UAV. Troops were sent out to collect pieces of the downed UAV and examination of this wreckage will make it clear where the UAV came from and what model it was. Israeli radar spotted the UAV over the Mediterranean and tracked it as it reached land near Gaza. The UAV was apparently flying under GPS control and may have been taking and transmitting pictures as it went. There may be more incidents like this, because this sort of thing allows Iranian propagandists to make noise about how Iran is "attacking" Israel. That will probably stop when Israel begins shooting down the UAVs over the Mediterranean.

October 10, 2012: In the capital there were violent clashes in the streets downtown. People were angry at the rapid inflation (currently over 30 percent) and sharp increase in what it cost to buy foreign currency. So far this year, the price (in rials, the Iranian currency) has more than tripled from 11,000 rials per dollar to over 39,000. About half of that increase occurred in the last two weeks or so as a result of the government trying to put restrictions on private money changers. That caused a panic. There has also been growing inflation even for good produced inside Iran. This is caused by the government printing more money to reward its loyalists (about a fifth of the population.) The government doesn't care if its opponents suffer, because it can point to these people and complain that it's all the fault of the sanctions. This worked for Saddam Hussein when Iraq was under similar sanctions in the 1990s. The Shia majority suffered most from the sanctions, which was fine with Saddam as the Shia were his mortal enemies. But the Western media played along and criticized the sanctions for making ordinary Iraqis suffer. Saddam starved and tormented his Shia opponents even when there were no sanctions, but this was not considered newsworthy.

Turkey is accusing Iran of making peace with Iranian Kurdish separatists (PJAK) in return for sanctuary in Iran and a truce with Iranian security forces. PJAK, which has been active since 2004, is supposed to have several thousand armed members. Last year PKK (Turkish Kurd separatists) announced that they would join with PJAK to fight the Iranian government. PJAK has been hammered by Turkish and Iranian forces over the last few years, the result of an agreement between Turkey and Iran to coordinated operations against their Kurdish separatists. There's been no official announcement of ending this deal.

October 8, 2012: The Foreign Ministry contradicted the head of the Revolutionary Guards and denied that any Iranian troops were in Syria or Lebanon. Last month the Revolutionary Guards commander had bragged that members of the Quds Force were operating in Syria. Quds is Iran's international terrorism support organization. The Quds Force supplies weapons to the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban as well as Islamic radicals in Somalia, Iraq and elsewhere. Quds is believed to be advising Syrian forces on how to deal with the rebels, and occasionally helping with raids and interrogations. Iran is also bringing in some badly needed special weapons and equipment. Most of this is coming in by air via Iraq. Syrian rebels are getting some proof of Iranian aid out of the country, but little of this has been made public. What is known is that several hundred military age Iranians were flown out of Syria in the last week. These were said to be Quds men, being withdrawn because of the economic crisis back in Iran.

October 7, 2012: The world's largest manufacture of Internet hardware (U.S. firm Cisco) cut its ties to long-time Chinese partner ZTE (also a major manufacturer of Internet hardware) when it was discovered that ZTE was illegally exporting Cisco equipment to Iran.

October 6, 2012: Iran's secret police (otherwise known as the Intelligence Ministry) opened their own web site (vaja.ir). In part this makes them seem like less of a scary monster (which they are for most people they encounter) and to make it easier for people who want to provide information (on disloyal Iranians or foreign agents) and be rewarded.

Yemen accused Iran of sending cash and other support to Sunni tribal separatists in southern Yemen while continuing long-standing support to rebellious Shia tribes in the north. Yemen has caught ships attempting to smuggle Iranian weapons in.

October 3, 2012: The government announced that slowdowns for Internet service were the result of attacks from unnamed attackers.

October 2, 2012: On September 24th it took 24,000 Iranian rials to buy one dollar on the black market. Today it costs 39,000 rials. The official exchange rate is 12,000 rials, but there are severe restrictions on who can get dollars at that rate. So most people, and businesses, use the illegal money changers, which the government is now cracking down on.

October 1, 2012: The government has restored access to Google gmail email service. The government insisted the shutting down gmail access was an accident. Even government supporters were angry at losing access to gmail. This was cut on September 23rd along with YouTube (also owned by Google). YouTube was cut off for refusing to take down videos Iranian clerics found offensive to Iran or Islam. This was also seen as a prelude to cutting the country off from the Internet and leaving only Iranian web sites functioning. This can work, because the Internet was built to operate no matter how much of it had been shut down (by nuclear war, according to the original specifications half a century ago). Iranians will still be able to use expensive satellite communications, or, near the border, cell phones to access the worldwide Internet. So forbidden news will still get in and be circulated. But the government will sharply limit the ability of Iranians to regularly communicate with people outside the country (especially the millions of Iranians living abroad.) There will still be official worldwide Internet access within Iran, but only with government approval and considerable restrictions.  Such "intranets" are quite common. The U.S. government and many large corporations use them for security reasons. Iran apparently underestimated the difficultly of setting up a national intranet, and were surprised at how many of their own core supporters depended on the existing Internet.

Russia - Yet More Western Plots Against Us

The new Russian Helicopters Company (a merger of all major Russian helicopter manufacturers) is now profitable. Sales so far this year are up more than 40 percent over last year and the backlog of orders is over 900 aircraft. With such success comes growing problems with Russian and foreign (mainly Chinese) firms making inferior counterfeit spare parts. Russian Helicopters is establishing a computerized database of all legitimate components on the market, so parts buyers can check to see if they are buying the real thing. This is part of a program to upgrade maintenance services for the thousands of Russian helicopters still in service. Russian Helicopters makes a lot of money producing spare parts for those older choppers and providing upgrade services.

Senior government officials are openly feuding with leaders of the Russian Orthodox Church over a church campaign to shut down a Russian production of the Western musical "Jesus Christ Superstar." Russian officials called the show blasphemous but Russian officials who had seen the show in the West are saying that the charges are false. The Russian Orthodox Church got a lot of its power, property, and influence back after the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. But now church leaders are seen as becoming too disruptive in their efforts to control media and public activities they consider inappropriate.

Russia has banned YouTube videos showing 14 minutes of an American film critical of Islam. This is being done to placate the Arab world, which is angry with the film as well as continued Russian support of the pro-Iran dictatorship in Syria (which is dealing with an armed rebellion). Russian media describe the situation in Syria (a rebellion against decades of dictatorship) as Western countries supporting Islamic terrorists to overthrow a legitimate Arab government.

The FSB (the successor to the Soviet era KGB) is implementing a computerized database of everyone travelling on long distance trains and buses. Everyone buying a ticket will have to present a passport and ticket data will be transmitted to the FSB database. This was the sort of thing the KGB always wanted but did not have the computer systems that could handle it.

October 4, 2012: The air force received its first new Yak-130 jet trainers. Earlier this year the air force decided not to adopt a combat version of this aircraft as the new ground attack aircraft (as the Yak-131) to replace existing Su-25s. The Yak-131 was found to be too vulnerable to ground fire for the job. Instead, a new design, based on the successful Su-25, will be developed and built over the next decade. Meanwhile, existing Su-25s (equivalent to the American A-10) will be refurbished and upgraded. The Su-25 has performed well in over a decade of action in the Caucasus.

October 3, 2012: In the Caucasus (Ingushetia) four policemen were killed and two wounded when they were ambushed while looking for Islamic terrorists. They encountered about a dozen of the armed rebels, who opened fire first and fled.

In the United States a Russian man, who became a U.S. citizen, was accused of using his export company to illegally ship military electronics to Russia. Six others were also accused of participating. The illegal exports have been going on since 2008.

October 2, 2012: The government announced another effort to reduce the corruption in the state-owned Gazprom, which controls all natural gas production and exports in the country. The mismanagement and corruption in Gazprom has become widely known and there is much popular sentiment for dealing with the problem.

September 29, 2012: The Russian military will move more troops and major weapons to Tajikistan next year. Three months ago Tajikistan agreed to extend the lease on Russian bases in the country for 49 years. That includes an unspecified increase in troop strength there. There are already 7,000 Russian troops of the 201st Motor Rifle Division in Tajikistan. That unit is at half strength and had sent most of its heavy weapons back to Russia in the last decade. Current gear includes 96 tanks, 300 Infantry Fighting Vehicles, 54 self-propelled artillery vehicles, 1,100 other vehicles, eight helicopters, and 5 ground attack aircraft. The 201st was there during the Soviet period and the post-Soviet Union Tajik government asked Russia to leave the 201st in place to help with internal security. This was a problem because Tajikistan shares a long border with Afghanistan, which Russian troops had only left a few years earlier.

September 28, 2012: In the Caucasus (Dagestan) police killed an Islamic terrorist who opened fire on them.

September 27, 2012: Despite Russian insistence that two Russians (a married couple) arrested in Germany last year were not active Russian agents but retired Cold War era spies, Germany proceeded to investigate. Now the two have been charged with several instances of espionage since 1991. The two 51 year olds are Russians who were sent to Germany in 1988 to serve as "sleeper" agents (agents that spend most of their time doing nothing, until activated from time-to-time for some simple, but essential, mission). While Germany let a lot of its own Soviet era spies off easy, there is still a lot of animosity towards Russian spies. That's because Russia is still very much involved with espionage. In Germany that means stealing economic secrets, which hurts the German economy. The Germans are not in a forgiving mood because of this Russian aggression.

September 23, 2012: In the Caucasus (Dagestan) police killed four Islamic terrorists at a roadblock.

September 21, 2012: The first Su-30SM two-seat fighter flew and will soon begin joining the Russian Air Force. The Su-30SM is a Russian Air Force version of the Su-30MKI that has long been exported (to India, Algeria, and Malaysia). For the last two decades Russian defense manufacturers have survived on exports. The Russian military halted most procurement spending after the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991 (largely from financial mismanagement). In the last decade the Russian military has gradually resumed buying. Initially the Russian military could not afford the best stuff (like the SU-30MKI that was only sold to foreigners). But that has changed, and now the Russian military is catching up. 

September 20, 2012: In several clashes in the Caucasus (Kabardino-Balkaria and Chechnya) at least twenty Islamic terrorists were killed. Two policemen were also killed.

October Iranian Joke #1 - Iran top general rules out restoration of ties with US

Iran's Armed Forces Chief of Staff Major General Seyyed Hassan Firouzabadi.

A senior Iranian military commander has rejected reestablishment of relations between Tehran and Washington as being against the principles of the Islamic Revolution and people’s demands.

Addressing a group of high-ranking officials, Iranian Armed Forces Chief of Staff Major General Seyyed Hassan Firouzabadi said the idea of detente with the US is the result of occasional disregard for “the ideals of [founder of the Islamic Republic Ayatollah] Imam [Khomeini]” by some officials.

    The Iranian commander reiterated the remarks made by Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, who ruled out any relations with the US unless Washington “comes to its senses.”

“Today, US officials have shown that they are enslaved by Zionists, super-capitalists and the British Freemasons,” Firouzabadi added.

The major general recalled the US support for the Israeli regime, its intervention in the internal affairs of Syria and allowing the production of an anti-Islam movie as well as support for homosexuality and abortion as signs of modern slavery, noting that Muslims will never give in to enslavement.

Firouzabadi stated that as long as real democracy and the rights of the American people have not been recognized, there would be nobody in the US government with whom negotiations over truth and freedom and changing global structure could be started.

Bullshit from Iran and the Mad Mullahs - Iran fighting economic, psychological war against West: Ahmadinejad

Iranian Terrorist President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad speaks to journalists at a press conference in Tehran, Tuesday, October 2, 2012.

A clandestine, vast and heavy war has been waged [against Iran] on the global scale … and our colleagues in the Central Bank [of Iran] and other relevant bodies are working hard to find solutions … and this is a [real] battle.”

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has dismissed rumors of economic downturn in the Islamic Republic, saying the country is facing a tough economic and psychological war waged by the West.

“A clandestine, vast and heavy war has been waged [against Iran] on the global scale … and our colleagues in the Central Bank [of Iran] and other relevant bodies are working hard to find solutions … and this is a [real] battle,” Ahmadinejad told a press conference attended by domestic and foreign reporters in Tehran on Tuesday.

    Pointing to the fluctuations in the currency markets in Iran, the president said, “Fluctuations [in the Iranian foreign exchange market] have not begun today. The market has been fluctuating for some time and these fluctuations have only gathered steam recently,” he said.

Ahmadinejad stated that the enemies have imposed embargos on Iran’s crude oil exports and banking transactions to make it difficult for the Islamic Republic to sell oil, as the country’s most important revenues source, or transfer the proceeds once oil is sold.

The Iranian chief executive emphasized that Iran would soon make up for a short decline caused by enemies in its oil exports.

“Keep in mind that it’s a battle. The enemy imagines that it can shatter the [will of] Iranian nation by [applying] such pressures and they may even make new decisions.”

He noted that the Iranian nation would overcome these pressures although the enemy continues to ratchet up the pressure.

“The pressures are not exerted on the governments alone, but are [exerted] on the nations too. All these [measures] constitute a psychological warfare and of course certain decisions have been taken. Of course, our people are calm. The enemy has thrown a stone at us, we have to lift it and throw it back at them.”

Ahmadinejad also played down the threats of military strike against the Islamic Republic, adding that such threats mostly represent a war of nerves rather than real intention to attack.

“The Zionist regime [of Israel] is after adventurism in a bid to win a chance. It wrongly imagines that it can acquire that chance by threatening Iran, but they are mistaken. Their time is over and they have to go away,” the Iranian chief executive said.

Ahmadinejad also pointed to relations between Iran and the US, saying that any talks between Tehran and Washington must be based on equal terms and mutual respect and the US must first correct its behavior toward Iran.