My View - Russia’s invasion of Ukraine demands a decisive response

 

PermalinkLet’s be clear: Russia has invaded Ukraine. We can debate the reasons. But we can no longer debate the fact. Nor can we stand by and do nothing. It is time for the United States and Europeans to act. This weekend’s European Council meeting in Brussels and next week’s Nato summit in Wales should be devoted to forging an effective, and lasting, response.

 

Numerous reports from southeastern Ukraine make clear that Russian military forces are operating in Ukraine in ways that can only be described as an invasion. Russian artillery, long used to fire against Ukrainian forces from the Russian side of the border, is now firing from inside Ukraine. Russian tanks and armoured vehicles are rolling along Ukrainian roads. Russian airborne troops, captured by Ukrainian forces, openly admit that they had been sent there to disrupt Ukraine’s effort to retake control of its territory.

 

Why Russian President Vladimir Putin chose this moment to escalate is not immediately clear, but none of the plausible reasons offer any solace. At the least, the overt use of Russian forces is meant to forestall the defeat of the Russian-supported rebels in eastern Ukraine. In recent weeks, government forces were regaining significant ground in the east. Opening up a new front further south could force the Ukrainian military to shift its attention from the rebel-held areas and thus enable the rebels to strengthen their positions.

 

The Russian military effort is probably designed to establish effective control of key parts of Ukraine. The invasion route and focus in southeast Ukraine is consistent with an effort to establish a land route to Crimea, which since the illegal Russian annexation last March has been reachable only by sea and air. It is also consistent with an even more nefarious goal – establishing a territorial link between Russia and the Russian occupied Transnistria region in Moldova.

 

One thing should be clear. This is not about trying to influence Ukraine’s alignment with the west, as Mr Putin’s apologists continue to claim. For Mr Putin, the issue has never been whether Ukraine will have an economic relationship with the EU or be a member of Nato. To him, the issue is whether and how Russia can effectively control Ukraine.

 

The Russian invasion of a neighbouring country poses a serious threat not only to the European security environment, but to global order. If there is one principle that has undergirded that order since 1945 it is that states do not seize territory by force. That principle was blatantly violated in March, and it is again being violated today. At this point, calls for a ceasefire, for de-escalation, or a return to the negotiating table play right into Mr Putin’s hands. Instead, we need to take actions that will lead Moscow to withdraw its military forces from Ukraine and halt its support of rebel forces, and allow Kiev to retake complete control over all of Ukraine’s territory

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Fortunately, over the next few days the leaders of EU, the US and Canada are slated to meet in Brussels and Cardiff, giving them the opportunity to decide on steps that can help bring about this result. These should include:

• First, a clear commitment by all 28 Nato allies to bolster their capacity to defend all of Nato’s territory. That requires an explicit guarantee by all 28 to halt a decade-plus of cuts in defence spending and begin to make the investments necessary for their security. It also requires a significant, forward presence of Nato air, sea, and land forces in central and eastern Europe, including Poland and the Baltic States. Such a presence needs to be visible and persistent, and should remain in place for as long as required.

• Second, western countries need to supply the Ukrainian military with advanced weapons and a steady supply of intelligence to bolster its ability to defend its territory. Concern that such assistance could be provocative to Moscow ignores the fact that it is Russia that has invaded Ukraine, and that Moscow can put a halt to the assistance by withdrawing its troops and end support of rebel forces.

• Finally, the EU and the US need to impose full-scale economic sanctions. That means real, Iran-style financial sanctions, including freezing Russian assets overseas and denying Russia access to the international financial system. It also means an immediate end to any arms deliveries to Russia, including those already under contract such as the French Mistral assault ships. And it means and end to any technical or financial support for Russia’s energy sector.

We are at a defining moment. If we ignore or prevaricate about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Mr Putin will succeed in upending the European order at a grave cost to Europe’s security. If we act decisively, and act now, Mr Putin will fail in his effort to seek Russian control over Ukraine and the territory of the former Soviet Union and Europe will again be secure.

Striking a new transatlantic deal (NATO Secretary General's Blog)

US seeks ‘world supremacy’ through advanced weapons - Security Chief

 A RIM-7P NATO Sea Sparrow Missile being launched from the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) during a stream raid shoot exercise.

The Secretary of the Security Council of Russia has provided his views on a number of national security issues, including the importance of preserving Russia’s nuclear arsenal against potential adversaries.

­Nikolay Patrushev, commenting on how atomic weapons play more of a political role than a military one, said the consequences of even a “limited nuclear intervention” are so catastrophic that it makes the usage of such weapons absolutely impossible. 

Nuclear arsenals therefore continue to serve as an effective deterrent against any possible large-scale war, Patrushev told Komsomolskaya Pravda newspaper in an interview.

Patrushev spoke candidly on the nature and source of threats to Russian security, and what those challenges mean for the country.

“We…understand that the atomic weapons of leading western counties are aimed mainly against Russia,” he said. “In these conditions – and given the insufficient strength of Russia’s conventional armed forces – the preservation of the nuclear potential is a priority task.”

While ruling out the possibility of total nuclear disarmament, Patrushev nevertheless explained that a new generation of weapon systems – including anti-ballistic missiles – is changing the nuclear calculus.

Earlier, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin spoke on the threat mobile, naval-based elements of the US missile defense system “suddenly appearing” on Russia’s coastline. Such an event would trigger “the harshest reaction from Russia," he warned.

Rogozin said that Russia is now taking definite steps to counter US warships “equipped with the Aegis integrated naval weapons system.”

Moscow has frequently warned of “another arms race” unless a bilateral agreement is reached on NATO’s plans for missile defense near the Russian border.

Patrushev continued that theme in his interview, underlining the technological advances that have changed the face of war.

Not long ago, any state that possessed nuclear weapons was undoubtedly a “dominating force” in the international arena, he noted. However, in a clear reference to US plans for a naval-based missile defense shield in Eastern Europe, Patrushev mentioned that a new generation of weapons is being developed, and that “the United States has proven successful in this field of research.”

Patrushev explained that Russia, which has seen success in developing state-of-the-art technology, had not given enough attention to that field of research. As new weaponry appears, the US appears to be reconsidering the role of strategic nuclear arms in the fulfillment of a “geopolitical idea of world supremacy,” the security official added.

The Balkans - Haunted By Ottoman Ghosts

Greece’s weak coalition government is getting weaker. One of the government coalition parties, the Democratic Left party, opposes a package of labor reforms that creditors demand if Greece wants a two-year extension to meet its budget reduction targets. The labor reforms involve severance pay and regulatory allowances that make it easier for companies to lay-off workers. Meanwhile, street protests continue in Greece’s major cities.

October 25, 2012: Investigators have found that the Turkish government is suppressing free speech. The government is accused of conducting a planned and systematic campaign to intimidate Turkish media (particularly news reporting media). There are repeated violations of freedom of expression by the government and the use of legal action (in court) by government officials to intimidate press critics and reporters. Turkish media today is concentrated in the hands of large corporations which have broad economic interests. These conglomerates can practice self-censorship in their media operations in order not to offend government officials and bureaucrats who make economic decisions which affect other corporate interests. (Austin Bay)

October 23, 2012: Police in Kosovo had to break up a demonstration by members of Kosovo’s Self-Determination Party. The rock-throwing protestors objected to holding any negotiations with Serbia. Kosovo’s government has said that it wants to reach several agreements with Serbia and normalize relations. The Self-Determination Party is small but has become the hard-line Albanian Kosovar opposition group.

October 22, 2012: Several dozen Albanian ultra-nationalists protested the visit of Serbia’s Foreign Minister to Albania’s capital, Tirana. The protestors belong to the Red and Black Alliance party. The protestors shouted that "Kosovo is Albania." Balkan Slavs hear this shout as a demand for a Greater Albania. Meanwhile, Bulgaria’s prime minister, who was also visiting Albania, said that all Balkan countries should join NATO and the European Union. That would help insure Balkan stability. Bulgaria recognizes Kosovo as an independent country.

The Greek government acknowledged that its revised deficit and debt figures for 2011, are higher than the figures it provided earlier this year. Last year the deficit was 9.4 percent of GDP. Total public debt at the end of 2011, was 170.6 percent of GDP.

October 20, 2012: Bosnia and Croatia are continuing to discuss ways to directly connect Croatia with the city of Dubrovnik. A five-kilometer long strip of Bosnia (where Bosnia has access to the Adriatic Sea) cuts direct land access to Dubrovnik.

October 19, 2012: Serbia’s Prime Minister Ivica Dacic and Kosovo’s Prime Minister Serbian Hashim Thaci met in Brussels, Belgium. It was the first official public talks between the leaders of Serbia and Kosovo. The EU arranged the meeting.

October 18, 2012: Several thousand Greek blue and white collar workers participated in another general strike in Athens to protest the government’s austerity budget disrupted Athens. It was the 20th general strike in the last two years.

October 15, 2012: The Turkish Disaster Management Agency (AFAD) provided detailed official figures on the number of Syrian refugees now in Turkey (100,363 in 14 camps).

Turkey announced that it has begun construction on a 107-kilometer long water pipeline that will run from the Alakopru Dam (near Anamur on Turkey’s Mediterranean Sea coast) to a reservoir near the town of Gecitkoy in Turkish Cypriot northern Cyprus. The project should be finished in March 2014. This is not a new proposal. In the past Turkey has said that the pipeline could easily supply water to the entire island, including the Greek Cypriot side of the island. Turkey has also said that can occur once the island is reunified.

October 13, 2012: The Turkish government rebuked the UN Security Council for its continuing failure to act to end Syria’s internal conflict. The Turkish statement compared the UN’s inaction to the institution’s failure to deal responsibly with the Bosnian crisis in the 1990s.

October 12, 2012: The Turkish government announced that the Turkish Army has deployed more tanks and anti-aircraft weapons along the Syrian border. Turkish fighter jets also scrambled to intercept a Syrian military helicopter that was flying too close to the border. There are now 99,500 Syrian refugees in Turkey and another 14,000 refugees want to cross the border into Turkey.

October 11, 2012: In the week since Turkey’s parliament gave the government a mandate for combat action against Syria, Turkish media report that Turks do not want a war with Syria but they do not want Syrian forces shelling Turkish towns. The Turkish government has noticed that the Syrian government has taken a conciliatory tone since the parliament passed the resolution. The Turkish government had said that the parliamentary mandate could have a deterrent effect on Syria.

October 8, 2012: Today marks the 100th anniversary of the First Balkan War. On October 8, 1912, Montenegro declared war on the Ottoman Empire. Montenegrin forces deployed along the Albania-Montenegro border and attacked Albania on October 9, 2012.

October 5, 2012: Macedonia wants The Name War to end. In 1995, Greece and Macedonia signed an interim agreement to resolve The Name War. Greece insists that Macedonia be called The FYROM (Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia) and won’t budge.

Bulgaria held several events throughout the country commemorating the 100th anniversary of the First Balkan War. Some of the events were described as celebrations: Bulgaria won the First Balkan War. However, the Bulgarian government is also treating the commemoration as a sobering lesson in Balkan history. It has created an on-line digital library with information on the 50,000 Bulgarian soldiers who died in the First and Second Balkan Wars. The website has information on over 48,000 soldiers.

October 4, 2012: Greek shipyard workers battled truncheon-armed police as a protest over back wages turned violent. Police responded after the shipyard workers stormed the Greek Defense Ministry in Athens. A Greek Army general tried to talk with the demonstrators but was shouted down.

The Turkish parliament voted 320 to 129 to authorize the use of combat troops in a cross-border operation against Syria. The parliament voted after Syrian mortar shells hit a Turkish border town and killed five Turkish citizens. The government said that the parliamentary vote was not a mandate for war but it was an important political signal to Syria. The resolution gives the government permission to take military action inside Syria for up to a year. Turkey’s main opposition party, the Republican Peoples Party (CHP), opposed the resolution as did the pro-Kurd Peace and Democracy Party (BDP).

The UN Security Council condemned Syria’s shelling of Turkey and called it a violation of international law.

Bosnia’s National Museum closed after 124 years of operation. The Bosnian government decided to close the museum as a budget-cutting measure.

October 3, 2012: The Bosnian war crimes court acquitted two Bosnian Serbs who were charged with participating in the 1995 Srebrenica massacre. The two men were policemen at the time. The court ruled that the government failed to prove its case that the men were involved in rounding up victims for execution.

October 1, 2012: Moldova’s controversial law which bans the use of Communist symbols went into effect today. The ruling Alliance for European Integration coalition passed the law in July, over severe objections by Moldova’s Communist Party which called the law an anti-political opposition tactic. Of course the Communist Party, under the Soviet Union, had far worse anti-opposition laws, but the Communists are right. Moldova’s Communist Party said that it will keep its hammer and sickle symbol, despite the law.

Cyprus (Greek Cyprus) held a military parade commemorating 52 years of independence. Greece’s Defense Minister attended the ceremonies. The Cypriot president wants the island reunified by political means.

September 29, 2012: Kosovo‘s prime minister said that Kosovo and Serbia must normalize relations so that both countries can integrate with the rest of Europe. However, he insisted that Kosovo will never cede ethnic Kosovar Serb enclaves to Serbia.

September 27, 2012: The Romanian Supreme Defense Council approved a plan to buy 12 second-hand F-16 fighter-bombers from Portugal. Romania will get the jets in 2016, and will cost $500 to $600 million.

The European Union announced that Serbia has signed a technical protocol that will allow a joint Serb-Kosovar presence at border crossings between the two countries. The EU’s EULEX legal and police operation in Kosovo will support the program, which is part of the Integrated Border Management Agreement.

September 26, 2012: Russia once again warned Moldova to end its efforts to join the European Union. Russia has said that it will provide Moldova with cheap natural gas if it curtails political cooperation with the EU.

Greek police broke up a riot in Athens. The police fired tear gas at anti-austerity protestors who were throwing Molotov cocktails and rocks.

September 25, 2012: Albanians in Macedonia’s parliament said that they will attempt to block passage on a proposed law that would give veterans of Macedonia’s 2001 civil war special rights. The law does not provide any special rights and compensation for Albanian rebels. One Macedonian Albanian parliamentarian (a member of the Democratic Union for Integration party) said that his party would conduct a filibuster with marathon speeches.

September 22, 2012: A Turkish civilian court convicted 330 military officers (active and retired) of participating in a plot to topple the government. Another 34 officers were acquitted. Three former senior commanders (Army General Cetin Dogan, Turkish Navy Admiral Ozden Ornek, and former Turkish Air Force commander General Ibrahim Firtina) were among the officers convicted. All three flag officers received sentences of 20 years in prison. The convicted officers were accused of participating in a plot called Operation Sledgehammer. According to prosecutors, Sledgehammer was a military exercise that masked a coup d’etat to overthrow the government run by the Islamist Justice and Development Party (AKP).  Sledgehammer was organized in 2003.

Rail wars? Russia ponders new railroad-based missile systems

Plans are underway to create combat railway-based missile systems designed to give Russia a more flexible means of defense.

­The system consists of a train with two or three diesel locomotives and specialized railcars, which look like refrigerator or passenger railcars, but carry intercontinental ballistic missiles, together with command posts, Col. Vadim Koval, the Russian Defense Ministry's spokesman for the Strategic Rocket Forces (RVSN)the Russian Defense Ministry, told reporters.

Although the last railway-based missile unit was decommissioned almost a decade ago, the system is getting a second look as a means of protecting Russia’s vast landmass as global threats become more diversified.

"A final decision, however, has not been taken on the issue," Koval added.

The idea of using railroads to move around missiles is not new. Koval noted that the first unit of railway-based missile systems was put on combat duty in Kostroma in October 1987, and removed from service in 2005.

However, with the nature of warfare changing and the global situation increasingly volatile and unpredictable, military leaders argue it may be a good time to give some versatility to Russia’s missile defenses.

Meanwhile, Russia is looking for ways to counter the US missile defense system, which is being deployed in Eastern Europe. Despite Moscow’s warning that the technology has the potential to spark a new arms race, US and NATO officials remain adamant and refuse to cooperate with Russia. Washington has even rejected Moscow’s request to provide it with legal assurances that the system will never be activated against Russian territory.

Railway-based missile systems are designed for use along special military patrol routes, as well as railway lines used by the public.

Formerly, three missile divisions – near Kostroma, Krasnoyarsk and Perm – were deployed. Employing 12 trains, the system transported 36 missiles, each with 10 nuclear warheads.

Russian military experts say that with technological advances made in missile technology, the use of railroad-based systems could be an effective means of protecting Russia.

Switzerland arming in preparation for European meltdown?

The Swiss Army is preparing contingency plans for violent unrest across Europe. A nation mostly famous for its banks, watches and chocolate fears it may face a massive influx of European refugees in the near future.

One of the world’s richest nations openly expressed concerns over the possible outcome of Europe’s continuing financial troubles, and is currently conducting army exercises against the possibility of riots along its borders.

In September, the Swiss military conducted exercises dubbed ‘Stabilo Due,’ with scenarios involving violent instability across the EU.

Switzerland has maintained an avowedly neutral stance for decades, and refused to join the eurozone when presented with the opportunity.

Bern’s biggest fear is likely the disorganization of neighboring nations’ armies that would follow general instability; the eurozone crisis and the severe austerity measures in the EU are forcing member-states to significantly slash their military budgets. If protest continues to spread across Europe, police and armed forces may find themselves ill-equipped to manage the unrest.

"I will not rule out that we will need the army in the coming years,” Swiss Defense Minister Ueli Maurer said last Sunday.

The Swiss Defense Ministry has pressed ahead to modernize the country’s army despite political opposition. With its multibillion-Franc military budget and an army of around 200,000 soldiers, the country also plans to purchase new ‘Saab Gripen’ jet fighters.

 “Minister Maurer, accompanied by whispers from the top uniformed leadership in Switzerland, is trying to raise awareness that Europe’s massive fiscal-cum-political crisis could get very unpleasant,” John R. Schindler, a professor of national security affairs at the US Naval War College wrote in an article for the XX Committee website.

The Chief of the Swiss Armed Forces, Lieutenant General André Blattmann, likewise revealed plans to deploy an additional four battalions of military police (1,600 soldiers) to protect strategic points across the country. Blattmann is expected to present the plan in December.

Professor Schindler predicts that, “if the next Anders Brievik were to target Muslims, not fellow Europeans, things could get unimaginably ugly very quickly,” which could trigger widespread Muslim uprisings in Europe.

Switzerland, however, stands in stark opposition to the multicultural policies and thinking now common in other European nations. In 2009, Switzerland passed a national referendum banning the construction of Islamic minarets .

And while the global economic crisis has forced several European nations to cut military expenditures, Switzerland has maintained relatively consistent levels of defense spending.

Al-Qaeda leader calls for more anti-US protests

With the number protests outside US embassies declining, Al-Qaeda head Ayman al-Zawahiri urged “zealots of Islam” to “continue opposition.” He said a US-made Islamophobic film is “American crusader Zionist aggression,” and cannot be forgiven.

­Al-Zawahiri’s seven-minute address to "free and distinguished zealots for Islam" appeared on Islamic websites early Saturday. In the speech, Al-Qaeda’s new leader, who came to power after Osama Bin Laden’s death last year, hailed “the honorable people… who stormed the US embassy in Benghazi and those who protested outside the US mission in Cairo, where they replaced the US flag with that of Islam and jihad.”

An angry mob assaulted the US consulate in Benghazi, Libya, on September 11, the 11th anniversary of Al-Qaida’s 9/11 attacks on New York and Washington. US ambassador to Libya Chris Stevens and three other staffers were killed in the incident.

It was initially believed that the Benghazi violence was prompted by an amateur film made in the US that depicted Islam's Prophet Muhammad as a thuggish deviant. Later, however, US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta revealed that the assault in Libya was a preplanned attack linked to Al-Qaeda.

Some protests were truly massive, but peaceful: Over 15,000 Pakistani protesters rally in Karachi on September 29, 2012, (AFP Photo / Rizwan Tabassum)

Some protests were truly massive, but peaceful: Over 15,000 Pakistani protesters rally in Karachi on September 29, 2012, (AFP Photo / Rizwan Tabassum)

Saturday was not the first time Al-Qaeda praised the Benghazi attack, but as in previous statements, Al-Zawahiri stopped short of claiming responsibility.

Al-Zawahiri also called for more global protests against the US and lashed out at Washington for its reluctance to ban the anti-Islamic video 'Innocence of Muslims.'

The White House, though condemning the 13-minute video uploaded to YouTube, said they could not ban the movie without violating the US constitutional right to free speech.

But many rallies turned violent: Yemeni protesters run for cover from tear gas fired by riot police during a demonstration against a film mocking Islam at a crossroad leading to the US embassy in Sanaa on September 14, 2012. (AFP Photo/Mohammed Huwais)

But many rallies turned violent: Yemeni protesters run for cover from tear gas fired by riot police during a demonstration against a film mocking Islam at a crossroad leading to the US embassy in Sanaa on September 14, 2012. (AFP Photo/Mohammed Huwais)

Al-Qaeda’s leader said Saturday that the US allowed the film's production and circulation under “the pretext” of freedom of expression, “but this freedom does not prevent them from torturing Muslim prisoners.” Al-Zawahiri was apparently referring to the Muslims imprisoned in Iraq, Afghanistan and Guantanamo Bay.

Thousands rallied in Egypt, Lebanon, Pakistan, Yemen, Iran and across Europe to protests against the incendiary 'Innocence of Muslims' video. US missions and businesses were burned down, and over 60 people were killed and hundreds injured in the resulting clashes with police.

Bullshit from Iran and the Mad Mullahs - Iran fighting economic, psychological war against West: Ahmadinejad

Iranian Terrorist President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad speaks to journalists at a press conference in Tehran, Tuesday, October 2, 2012.

A clandestine, vast and heavy war has been waged [against Iran] on the global scale … and our colleagues in the Central Bank [of Iran] and other relevant bodies are working hard to find solutions … and this is a [real] battle.”

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has dismissed rumors of economic downturn in the Islamic Republic, saying the country is facing a tough economic and psychological war waged by the West.

“A clandestine, vast and heavy war has been waged [against Iran] on the global scale … and our colleagues in the Central Bank [of Iran] and other relevant bodies are working hard to find solutions … and this is a [real] battle,” Ahmadinejad told a press conference attended by domestic and foreign reporters in Tehran on Tuesday.

    Pointing to the fluctuations in the currency markets in Iran, the president said, “Fluctuations [in the Iranian foreign exchange market] have not begun today. The market has been fluctuating for some time and these fluctuations have only gathered steam recently,” he said.

Ahmadinejad stated that the enemies have imposed embargos on Iran’s crude oil exports and banking transactions to make it difficult for the Islamic Republic to sell oil, as the country’s most important revenues source, or transfer the proceeds once oil is sold.

The Iranian chief executive emphasized that Iran would soon make up for a short decline caused by enemies in its oil exports.

“Keep in mind that it’s a battle. The enemy imagines that it can shatter the [will of] Iranian nation by [applying] such pressures and they may even make new decisions.”

He noted that the Iranian nation would overcome these pressures although the enemy continues to ratchet up the pressure.

“The pressures are not exerted on the governments alone, but are [exerted] on the nations too. All these [measures] constitute a psychological warfare and of course certain decisions have been taken. Of course, our people are calm. The enemy has thrown a stone at us, we have to lift it and throw it back at them.”

Ahmadinejad also played down the threats of military strike against the Islamic Republic, adding that such threats mostly represent a war of nerves rather than real intention to attack.

“The Zionist regime [of Israel] is after adventurism in a bid to win a chance. It wrongly imagines that it can acquire that chance by threatening Iran, but they are mistaken. Their time is over and they have to go away,” the Iranian chief executive said.

Ahmadinejad also pointed to relations between Iran and the US, saying that any talks between Tehran and Washington must be based on equal terms and mutual respect and the US must first correct its behavior toward Iran.