Iran - The Local Bully And The False Front

Another round of nuclear disarmament talks have failed and Iran is accused of using the talks to delay more severe action to halt Iranian nuclear weapons development efforts. Iran was offered free nuclear fuel and the lifting of sanctions in return for shutting down the nuclear weapons program. Iran refused and insisted it wants to keep its nuclear fuel processing facilities and admitted that it was expanding these operations. With this facility Iran can make both nuclear power plant fuel and the more highly enriched uranium needed for nuclear weapons (which, officially, Iran denies working on.) In response the commander of American military forces (CENTCOM) in the region went on record that this latest negotiation failure makes American military action more likely and that the U.S. has detailed plans for that. 

Recent opinion polls in the Middle East show that Moslems no longer admire Iran. The poll showed that in most Moslem nations over 70 percent of the population now has a hostile attitude towards Iran. Until a few years ago it was quite the opposite. But Iran’s cynical support for the Syrian dictatorship (while supporting all the other Arab Spring rebels) and continuing efforts to develop nuclear weapons (which most Moslems agree would be used to threaten other Moslems) has cost Iran dearly in the opinion polls. Since the 1979 revolution in Iran and the takeover of the government by Islamic conservatives in the 1980s, most Moslems accepted Iranian claims that it was fighting the foreign (non-Moslem) influences responsible for all the bad things (poor education, low economic growth, despotic government and falling behind the rest of the world in technical and cultural development) happening in the Moslem world. By now most Moslems realize (and some even admit to outsiders) that the causes of all these problems is internal. Iran is now seen for what is has been for thousands of years; the local bully. 

The bully is also fond of telling tall tales. Iran says it is mass producing copies of the American ScanEagle UAV. This is a low-tech, commercially available UAV that contains no classified components. Iran released photos of their production facility, but did not present any of the completed UAVs. Iran could have built a ScanEagle clone without copying from one they had obtained (either from a crash or the black market). The ScanEagle assembly line picture could have simply been Photoshopped, a technique Iran has been caught using numerous times. Another recent Photoshop based scam was a government claim that it had developed a stealth fighter. Photos of the prototype (on the ground and in the air) were quickly ripped apart by aeronautical engineers. Most of this pathetic (to Western eyes) nonsense is for internal consumption, especially by the many Iranians who do not have Internet access.  

The government continues to arrest journalists considered too outspoken on reform of the current government. The religious dictatorship has become less tolerant of criticism in the last year, as the new sanctions cause more unhappy Iranians. The government doesn’t want anyone reporting on this baleful development. The economic woes are less of a problem for the ruling clerics and their families. Loyal businessmen are also being isolated from the economic difficulties. But everyone else (about 80 percent of the population) is feeling the pain. 

The government won’t admit that the country has gone into recession since the new sanctions (because of the nuclear weapons program) that have cut oil income in half and made important much more expensive. The cost of living has gone up, often way up, for most Iranians and the government is trying to play down this unpopular trend. Officially inflation was 27 percent and unemployment 16 percent last year. Both numbers are considered lowball fictions the government is using to delay popular unrest. 

March 3, 2013: The government admitted that it was installing 3,000 more productive centrifuges for enriching uranium. This change has been rumored for months. 

February 28, 2013: The government expelled 32 Pakistanis living and working illegally in the southeast (where many Sunni Baluchi tribesmen live and have many kin across the border in Pakistan.) Illegal residents of Iran are being identified, rounded up and deported in response to the recession brought on by the new sanctions that began last year. 

February 24, 2013:  The government announced the discovery of new uranium ore deposits, which will be exploited with a newly built mine. 

February 23, 2013: President Ahmadinejad said that starting in the new year (which in Iran begins on March 21st) the government will sharply cut expenses and increase taxes to deal with the sharp (over 50 percent) drop in oil revenue). 

February 21, 2013: Spanish police arrested three Iranians and accused them of spying for the Iranian government. One of those arrested worked for the Iranian embassy and all three were accused to joining a local group that aided Iranian emigrants who had settled in Spain. The three reported which of these Iranian exiles was active in opposing the current government of Iran. With this knowledge the Iranians could pressure any kin the exiles had in Iran to get the Iranian in Spain to halt the anti-Iranian government activity. A few days earlier Nigeria arrested three Nigerian Islamic terrorists and accused them of planning attacks on the American and Israeli embassies at the behest of Iran. 

February 18, 2013: Iran apparently made a third attempt to launch a working satellite into orbit, and failed again. This time the rocket malfunctioned and did not get very far. The government has not made an official announcement on this.

Iran's nuclear plan: Arak's air defences revealed

Of all Iran’s nuclear plants, none is more heavily defended against air attack than Arak.

Satellite imagery shows that three surface-to-air missile sites and at least 50 batteries of anti-aircraft guns protect this research reactor and heavy water production plant. Only one missile battery guards the uranium enrichment facility at Fordow, by contrast.

Arak’s defences are carefully arrayed on the high ground surrounding the facility, with an outer ring of anti-aircraft guns deployed along possible attack routes and an inner circle placed around the installation’s perimeter. 

The missile batteries are found on three sides of Arak, with one crowning the highest mountain above the facility. 

Arak’s defences have to be strong because this plant is the most vulnerable of Iran’s sensitive nuclear sites. Unlike Fordow, which is buried inside a mountain, and Natanz, the other uranium enrichment plant which is largely underground, the entire complex at Arak appears to be above the surface. 

Whether these defences would trouble the air forces of Iran’s most likely adversaries, Israel and the US, is another matter. the anti-aircraft missiles at Arak are obsolete models known as the Shahin. 

Under the Shah, America sold Iran Hawk surface-to-air missiles, a 1960s design. Iran’s current rulers inherited this system after the Revolution of 1979. They upgraded the Hawk, modernising its radar guidance system and renaming it the Shahin. But this weapon is decades out of date. 

As for the guns, they would be capable of filling the sky above the plant with a hail of lead, making a close range attack extremely perilous. But the Israeli and US air forces would not launch that kind of strike. Both have long range “stand-off” missiles, which would be fired hundreds of miles away from Arak and well beyond the reach of its defences.

Iran Makes Mediocre Better

Iran recently announced the introduction of upgraded Russian anti-aircraft missile systems. The Taer-2 missiles appear to be updated SA-6s (a 1970s design Iran obtained in the 1990s). The Taer-2 missile is part of a new anti-aircraft system (Raad) that borrows some technology from the more recent Russian SA-11/17 (9K37 Buk M2), obtained via Syria (who bought them from Russia with Iranian cash).

The Russian SA-11 uses a 680 kg (1,500 pound) missile with a range of 30 kilometers. The latest SA-6 missile is about ten percent lighters and has a max range of 24 kilometers. Iran says it has improved some of the Buk M2 components had substituted Iranian built radars and fire control systems. Thus the Taer-2 missile claims a range of 50 kilometers and max altitude of 22 kilometers (70,000 feet). This seems too good to be true and this new Raad system may be more publicity stunt than new weapon.

Four of the SA-11 missiles are mounted on a tracked transporter, which appears to be if Iranian design. The SA-11 is combat proven, having recently been used in Georgia, by both sides to shoot down aircraft and UAVs. But not everyone is so confident in the SA-11.

For example, three years ago Finland decided to replace, at a cost of over $700 million, its three year old Russian SA-11 anti-aircraft missile systems, with Norwegian NASAMS. Norway developed this system in the early 1990s and deployed the first missiles and radars in 1995. NASAMS uses the American AMRAMM radar guided air-to-air missiles fired from a six missile container. This ground based AMRAAM weighs 159 kg (350 pounds) and has a range of 30 kilometers (it's radar can see out 50-70 kilometers), and can hit targets as high as 21 kilometers (65,000 feet). The AMRAAMs are protected inside their canister, which means fewer maintenance problems. What makes the AMRAMM so effective as a SAM is the capabilities of its guidance system (which is about two thirds of the $400,000 missiles cost.) AMRAAM can also be used to shoot down cruise missiles. Norway pioneered the use of AMRAAM as a surface to air missile.

The Finns received the SA-11s in payment for the $300 million debt that would have taken much longer to get paid off in cash. Russia has paid off many of its older (often Soviet era) debts with modern military equipment. Some of the recipients have found that the stuff wasn't modern, or effective, enough. Even with upgrades, the accuracy and reliability of the AMRAAM is superior to the Russian missile. The Finns believe the AMRAAM (also combat proven) based NASAMS is a better long term choice. There's also the suspicion that Russia may know things about defeating the SA-11 that they are not sharing with the Finns. The Iranians may have had similar qualms.

 

India to 'stabilise' present missile programme

Indian Defence Minister A K Antony today indicated that India will first "stabilise" its present missile programmes before thinking of starting any project for having capabilities to strike targets at longer distances than the 5,500 km-range Agni-V.

"Don't be impatient. Let the present Agni series stabilise," he said when asked if India was working on any programme such as Agni-6 after the success of 5,500 km-plus range Agni-5 earlier this year.

The Defence Minister was talking to reporters after delivering DRDO excellence awards here.

So far, the DRDO has conducted only one test of the Agni-V and is planning to carry out more such test-firings in the future for its induction in operational service.

The Minister advised stakeholders to adopt a consortium approach involving academic institutions and industries to act as a cohesive team to explore all aspects of nanotechnology for development of missiles, aeronautics, armaments and combat vehicles.

Praising the research agency, Antony said production of DRDO-developed systems already inducted in the armed forces is worth Rs 42,000 crore but cautioned it against complacency.

"If DRDO lags behind, technology being developed by it will become obsolete and it will not be able to provide state-of-the-art equipment to our forces. It must be the endeavour of all scientists to be innovative and creative in thought and action," he added.

The awardees at today's function included 'missile-woman of India' Tessy Thomas for her contributions to the Agni-4 programme.

Report: Iran to hold missiles maneuver

Iran’s official news agency reports the powerful Revolutionary Guards are planning war games this week, including drills with surface-to-surface missiles.

The IRNA agency said the maneuvers would begin Monday in Iran’s central desert and last three days.

The Sunday report quotes Gen. Ami Ali Hajizadeh, chief of the airspace unit of the Guards. He said missiles would target bases modeled after those of foreign armies.

He said the maneuver is aimed at assessing the accuracy and effectiveness of warheads and systems.

Iran’s Shihab-3 missile has a range of 2,000 kilometers (1,200 miles) and can reach Israel and southern Europe.

The announcement coincides with the beginning of a European Union oil embargo mean to pressure Iran over its nuclear program. Iran denies Western suspicions that it wants to build nuclear weapons