North Korea Building Missile Submarine

U.S. intelligence agencies believe North Korea is building a submarine capable of launching ballistic missiles, potentially increasing the threat posed by the nuclear-armed rogue state.

 

A missile launch tube on a North Korean submarine was observed recently by U.S. intelligence agencies and is raising new concerns about the missile and nuclear threat from the communist regime in Pyongyang, according to two defense officials familiar with reports of the development.

 

Pentagon spokesman Lt. Col. Jeffrey Pool declined to comment on the North Korean missile submarine program. “We do not comment on intelligence matters, but we do urge North Korea to become more transparent in their defense sector in order to reduce tensions in the region,” he said in a statement.

 

Details of the missile submarine remain closely held within the government.

 

Disclosure of the missile submarine work followed a recent report from North Korea showing photographs of dictator Kim Jong Un riding in the conning tower of a rusty North Korean submarine at sea.

 

Military analysts expressed surprise at the intelligence on the missile submarine program and speculated the submarine could be a modification of one of North Korea’s Russian or Chinese design Romeo-class diesel submarines.

 

A second possibility is that the new missile submarine is a copy or modification of a Soviet-era Golf-class missile-firing submarine purchased by Pyongyang—ostensibly for scrap metal—in the mid-1990s.

 

North Korea’s current submarine force includes around 70 submarines. Most of the vessels are older diesel submarines, including 22 Romeo-class or Chinese design Type-031 subs—the type of submarine Kim was photographed on in June.

 

The majority of the North’s submarines, more than two dozen, are small, Sango-class mini-submarines used for covert commando operations to infiltrate South Korea during a conflict. The North Koreans also have four 1940s-design Whiskey-class submarines from Russia.

 

North Korea’s use of submarine warfare was evident as recently as 2010, when it carried out a torpedo attack on South Korea’s Choenan costal warship, killing 46 sailors. A North Korean mini-submarine is suspected in that attack. North Korea denied it was behind the strike.

 

Additionally, U.S. intelligence agencies believe North Korea already has submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). The North covertly obtained several SS-N-6 SLBMs from Russia. The missile has been adapted into North Korea’s new intermediate-range missiles.

 

Until the recent discovery of the modified submarine, there were no intelligence signs North Korea is interested in developing its own submarine-launched missiles.

 

Pyongyang is one of the largest producers and exporters of ballistic missiles in the world, and makes several types of short-range Scuds, medium-range Nodongs, Musudan intermediate range missiles, and long-range Taepodongs.

 

Its missile arsenal is estimated to include between 600 and 1,000 missiles.

 

If the modified submarine is based on the Golf, it is likely the technology or actual missile tubes were derived from the decommissioned submarines obtained in the mid-1990s.

 

The authoritative Jane’s’ Fighting Ships revealed in May 1994 that North Korea purchased 40 decommissioned submarines from Russia, including several Golf-class and Romeo-class submarines.

 

Former British Navy Capt. Richard Sharpe, stated in the foreword to the 1994 publication that the Golf submarine sale raised concerns about their missile capabilities. It is “possible that the missile tubes may be adaptable for other weapons,” including ballistic missiles, he stated.

 

Rick Fisher, a military analyst, said he suspects one of the Golf-class submarines obtained by the North Koreans included one or more SS-N-6 missiles in its launch tubes as part of the deal.

 

North Korea then may have used the past 20 years to reverse-engineer a version of the Golf, which was designed to carry up to three ballistic missiles, Fisher said.

 

“In North Korean service, a Golf-size ballistic missile-carrying submarine could potentially carry two Musudan-size liquid-fueled missiles or a larger number of long-range cruise missiles,” he said.

 

If the missile submarine development is confirmed, it would mean North Korea could use one of its submarine missiles to attack Anchorage from waters near Russia’s Sakhalin Island. Another potential target for the North Korean missile submarine could be U.S. forces on Okinawa, Philippines, or Guam from the Yellow Sea. The missile could have a range of between 1,500 and 2,500 miles.

 

Eric Wertheim, an analyst at the U.S. Naval Institute, said he is skeptical North Korea could develop missile firing submarines, either indigenously or by copying or refurbishing a Golf.

 

“There are very many hurdles that would need to be overcome for North Korea to develop an SLBM and turn a diesel submarine into an operational platform able to launch guided SLBMs,” Wertheim said in an email.

 

“If not a Golf class, launch of SLBMs would probably require another large class of submarine and most recent North Korean submarine production seems to have focused on smaller subs or less than 1,000 tons,” he added.

 

A former intelligence analyst also said North Korea’s refurbishing of the Golf subs would be very difficult, and that the North Koreans would need satellite navigation for the missile.

 

South Korea press reports, however, have indicated recently that China is sharing its Beidou satellite navigation technology with North Korea.

 

A 2009 State Department cable made public by Wikileaks revealed that North Korea developed a new land-mobile intermediate-range missile based on the SS-N-6 SLBM.

 

The missile was deployed on Russia’s Golf submarines, indicating that the Golf missile tubes could be used or copied for the new North Korean missile submarine or as launch tubes on a converted submarine.

 

A modified SS-N-6 engine was used to build what is now called North Korea’s road-mobile Musudan missiles.

 

“Development of the Musudan with this more advanced propulsion technology allows North Korea to build even longer-range missiles—or shorter range missiles with greater payload capacity—than would be possible using Scud-type technology,” the cable on North Korean missile development stated.

 

A second 2011 cable revealed that North Korea shared the SS-N-6 missile technology with Iran for use in its Safir missile. The cable said “the second-stage of the Safir utilizes steering engines that are almost certainly derived from the Soviet-era SS-N-6 (Soviet designation: R-27 or RSM- 25) submarine-launched ballistic missile.”

 

“U.S. information was clear that Iran purchased these [missiles] from North Korea and that its technology was far more advanced than SCUD technology,” a third cable from 2007 said.

That cable quoted Russian officials, in talks with U.S. officials, denying any SS-N-6 missiles were sold to North Korea, claiming all were destroyed as part of the 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces treaty, which the State Department recently said was violated by Moscow through development of a new cruise missile.

 

Additionally, the Russians in 2007 said North Korea and Iran could not master the technology of the SS-N-6. “The Russians argued that the technology was customized for underwater use; and that the missile would not work without the water pressure at specific depths,” the cable said.

 

Fisher said another possible source for North Korea’s submarine-launched missile program is China, which has produced a version of the Golf known as the Type-031 and which was used until 2013 as an SLBM test platform.

 

“Given China’s habit of assisting North Korea to obtain earlier generation strategic weapons, the chances are greater that China would have aided North Korea’s rebuilding of the scrap Soviet Golf class submarines,” Fisher said. “Chinese assistance would have been crucial for North Korea to rebuild the pressure hull, missile tubes and to equip the sub with modern command and control systems.”

 

Fisher noted covert Chinese missile assistance in the past to North Korea’s KN-08 long-range missile, specifically the transfer of Chinese-made transporter-erector launchers.

 

“The emergence of a North Korean ballistic missile carrying submarine raises many questions for U.S. strategy and force levels in Asia,” Fisher said. “Should it now be considered a great error for the Obama administration to have retired and dismantled U.S. nuclear-armed cruise missiles for U.S. submarines in 2010?”

 

A missile-firing North Korean submarine also will require increased U.S. and Japanese anti-submarine warfare forces, he said. “Both will have to consider an additional number of submarines to check North Korea,” Fisher said.

 

Another concern is that North Korea will share or export missile-firing submarines in the future to Iran. North Korea cooperated with Iran on submarine training in the past.

China Passenger Jet in Near-Miss in North Korean Missile Test Zone

An aircraft with 202 people on board had a narrow escape after it passed through a North Korean missile test zone, it has been claimed.

Kim Min-seok, a South Korean defence ministry spokesman, said that the China Southern Airlines passenger jet travelling from Tokyo to Shenyang at an altitude of six miles flew through an area five minutes after the rocket had passed through it. The rocket landed in water.

"It was a very dangerous situation," Kim said. "North Korea's provocative actions violate international navigation laws and pose a great threat to the safety of civilians."

Korea - The Starving Masses Push Back

Two decades of increasing shortages in North Korea have left some telltale signs that can be seen from the air (or space). With the freely available commercial satellite pictures there are a lot more people scrutinizing this view of North Korea and noticing interesting patterns. For example, look at any residential area and you can pick out the buildings belonging to the government or government officials or those favored by the government, like successful athletes, entertainers or scientists. These are the ones with roofs that are not falling apart for lack of maintenance or building materials for repairs. Most North Koreans are fixated on finding food, or something that can be exchanged for food. Building materials are produced but increasingly exported to China because the government needs the foreign currency to buy goodies and assure the loyalty of the few percent of the population that keeps everyone else in line. While South Korea and much of China has emerged from the feudal period, North Korea never did. The place is run by a hereditary aristocracy that monopolizes the wealth and stays in power with armed retainers. It’s all quite visible from the air, including the palatial homes and country estates of the most senior officials.

 

One thing North Korea learned from its decision earlier this year to close the Kaesong Industrial Complex (financed and run by 123 South Korean firms employing 53,000 North Koreans) in order to punish South Korea for trying to get the North Koreans to halt their nuclear weapons program was that cash is king.  Kaesong was shut down by the north in April and the northern leaders soon discovered that the foreign currency generated by Kaesong was sorely missed. Few of the senior people in North Korea know much about accounting or how the world economy works, but the cash shortage created by the Kaesong shutdown got their attention. This was seen as an opportunity by China who soon convinced the northern leadership to make up with South Korea and get Kaesong operating again. China also pointed out that it would be possible to created many more Kaesongs and have even more cash with which to keep the Kim dynasty in power longer. To further encourage the northerners to get smart China threatened to further reduce food, oil and other shipments if the North Koreans didn’t calm down and at least make an effort to get their economic act together. So the north agreed to let the South Korean companies revive production at Kaesong as soon as they could. At that point the northern leadership got another lesson in economics. Many of the South Korea factory owners did not want or could not return to Kaesong. Either they had lost the customers who bought the goods produced in Kaesong or simply no longer trusted the North Koreans. The Chinese explained to the North Koreans how that all worked and apparently the North Koreans now have some trusted officials who have actually become “business literate” and can understand what the Chinese are saying and explain it all to their bosses. So Kim Jong Um has ordered the men who run the nine provinces of North Korea to designate two areas in their largest cities to become additional Kaesongs. China will help foreigners willing and able to provide the money and managers to set up operations and North Korea will provide the cheap labor (and keep most of the wages paid for these workers). The North Korean leaders have been warned that these new Kaesongs will not be an overnight success and North Korea must pay attention to maintaining trust and good relations with their foreign partners. That is difficult for North Korea officials to do as they tend to treat foreigners, including the Chinese at times, like serfs who exist to serve the North Korean leadership. Many North Koreans fear that the 18 new economic enterprise zones will turn out more like Rasun City than Kaesong. Rasun City was another economic zone, like Kaesong, started in 2010 in the area where the North Korean, Chinese and Russian border meet. Rather than just depend on one country (like South Korea in Kaesong) North Korea expected everyone to come looking to set up shop in Rasun City. That did not happen. Without the guidance of South Korean economic development experts the North Koreans scared off potential investors and mismanaged Rasun City badly. Most North Koreans see Rasun City as a failure while Kaesong was a success. The Chinese are trying to persuade the North Korean leaders to recognize the difference between what happened at Rasun City and Kaesong and act accordingly. As if to encourage the North Koreans South Korea has revealed that it is having a lot of problems getting South Korean companies interested in setting up operations in Kaesong and that it may take years of stability up there to return to the pre-shutdown level of activity. The shutdown will not soon be forgotten by South Korean businesses.

  

Meanwhile the North Korean leaders have other economic problems that could get ugly. Namely the decision to cut food distributions to ordinary citizens. This is not “free” food but usually the only payment many North Koreans get for weeks of hard labor during harvest season or to repair roads and other infrastructure after natural disasters or simply to maintain minimum standards for what little economy is left. Although the government has always boasted of “taking care of the people” that is increasingly not the case, yet people are still expected to take care of the government. Winter is underway and with food and fuel shortages a lot of people are going to be angry, as well as hungry and cold. Some members of the senior leadership can see where this is going and the orders cutting food and fuel for the poorest North Koreans are often being countermanded. Someone is paying attention, but many people at the top still ignore the suffering and believe their own propaganda, not what is actually happening at the local level.

  

The North Korean government is also concerned about how much ordinary North Korean are learning about the outside world, especially the much higher living standards in South Korea. To deal with that more secret police have been assigned to workers at Kaesong. For every hundred workers there will be 60 security personnel. This is part of a larger effort to keep news from spreading in North Korea. It’s too late to stop this sort of thing. That is believed to be why the government recently backed down on efforts to cut free food distributions in remote areas. In the past the news would not have spread and those affected would realize that and just suffer in silence. That has changed and that scares a government used to having all its orders followed promptly and without question.

  

While never considered the North Korean military a threat, it has viewed the increased capabilities of the South Korea military with alarm. Although China has the largest military in the region and is the most aggressive in using it, the devil is in the details. Most Chinese military personnel belong to the army. This is a threat to all neighbors China shares land borders with, especially Russia. While much is made of Chinese efforts to upgrade their navy and air force, these two services are still inferior to the Japanese navy and air force. The Japanese have more modern and effective ships and their crews are far more proficient than their Chinese counterparts. Same thing with the Japanese Air Force. Moreover, the Japanese naval forces are themselves overshadowed by American warships assigned to the Western Pacific.  In addition to the Japanese and American forces the Chinese have to worry about the formidable Taiwanese air and naval forces as well those of South Korea. Technically Russia is an ally, but the Russians keep most of their air and naval forces out of the Pacific and are inclined to continue their tradition of never having been at war with the United States. So China has to be careful. Any confrontations with Japan at sea in the air have to be handled carefully because China is still playing with a weak hand. In Korea this becomes an issue if China has to move into North Korea to deal with a government collapse there. South Koreans expect to deal with this, and finally unite Korea. China has expressed opposition to this. While the larger Chinese army would give China an edge on the ground, at sea and in the air things would be different. China would be blockaded and her economy crippled. This could cause major uprisings inside China. In this case, South Korea is the one who could pull the trigger and destroy the communist dictatorship that has run China for over 60 years.

  

South Korea recently launched the first of ten LST II class amphibious assault ships. These are 7,100 ton vessels that can carry 300 hundred troops as well as 10-20 vehicles. There is a landing pad that can hold two helicopters. Two smaller landing craft that can run up on a beach are also carried. The first ship will enter service in 2015 and are part of an expansion of South Korea amphibious forces. The South Korean Marine Corps is being expanded from 25,000 men to 32,000 by the end of the decade.

  

The international hacker community is becoming less mysterious. Over the last decade Internet security firms (especially Kaspersky Labs and Symantec) have been increasingly successful at identifying the hacker organizations responsible for some of the large-scale hacker attacks on business and government networks. These commercial security outfits often cooperate with intelligence agencies to share their findings and get a better sense of who and what the threat is.

 

Many of these hacker groups don’t really have a name, and are often groups of hackers put together for a specific campaign and that particular effort is given a name by the security experts who uncover and publicize it. Such was the case with Icefog, which was notable for going on for a long time. Operations like Icefog are also called APTs (Advanced Persistent Threats) because they are well crafted enough to remain undetected for a long time and d0 serious damage.  Icefog was directed at South Korean and Japanese military and Internet targets and analysts have found that a single group of North Korean hackers, called Dark Seoul, is responsible for nearly a billion dollars’ worth of damage since 2009 via Internet campaigns like Icefog.

  

South Korean intelligence analysts are now convinced that Kim Jong Un replaced the head of the army last August. The outgoing commander was 75 years old and appointed by Kim’s father. The new commander, Ri Yong-gil, is believed to be at least ten years younger and has won the confidence of Kim Jong Un over the last two years. In that time Kim Jong Un, usually on the advice of his aunt (his father’s sister) and uncle, has replaced over 200 senior military commanders. This was mainly to get men considered more loyal to the new, much younger, head of the country.

    

October 18, 2013: South Korea has agreed to speed up delivery of twelve jet fighters to the Philippines. The aircraft is the FA-50, which is the combat version of the South Korean designed and manufactured T-50 jet trainer. This aircraft was developed over the last decade, at a cost of over two billion dollars. The first test flight of the T-50 took place in 2002. The 13 ton aircraft is actually a light fighter, and can fly at supersonic speeds. With some added equipment (radars and fire control), the T-50 becomes the FA-50, a combat aircraft. The Philippines retired the last of its ancient F-5 jets in 2005 and now expects to get its first FA-50 by late 2014 and all the rest by 2015.

  

October 15, 2013: The Philippines upgraded its military ties with South Korea. The new agreement implements exchanges of military personnel for familiarization and training. This is also meant to exchange information about how each nations’ troops handle disaster relief and peacekeeping operations. Less publicized were the parts of the new agreement dealing with more detailed planning for cooperation against growing Chinese aggression in the sea areas between China and all its neighbors (particularly the Philippines, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam.) All of these Chinese neighbors are strengthening military alliances with each other and the United States to better deal with the Chinese tactics of gradual but persistent pressure.

  

October 10, 2013: Panama has revealed that the illegal Cuban weapons found on North Korean cargo ship last July were not “scrap” but were fully operational. The 250 tons of Cuban SA-2 anti-aircraft missile systems and MiG-21 components (including over a dozen jet engines) were buried under a cargo of sugar trying to get through the Panama Canal. North Korea at first denied any knowledge of the weapons but eventually admitted that they were obtained from Cuba and not declared. Such weapons shipments are forbidden by international sanctions and were seized. Cuba tried to explain it away as a shipment of military surplus that was non-functional and basically scrap. Panama called in experts who concluded that the stuff was operational. Cuba was being paid over $100 million for these weapons and other already shipped. The North Korean ship and its 35 man crew is still being held in Panama because North Korea refuses to pay a million dollar fine to get them released.

October 8, 2013: South Korean intelligence confirmed that it is quite certain North Korea has resumed operation of the Yongbyon nuclear reactor. North Korea announced it would restart Yongbyon last April. This reactor can produce nuclear material for bombs and had been completely shut down since 2007 and partially dismantled in 2008. It was believed that it would take at least six months (and possibly years) to resume production at Yongbyon. This reactor was shut down as part of an aid deal. But the northerners refused to completely dismantle their Yongbyon nuclear reactor.

 

They insisted on leaving some of the structure intact, and would not surrender unused nuclear fuel.

 

This sort of double dealing is so typical of the North Koreans. In response, South Korea increased its defense spending.

  

October 4, 2013: Despite North Korean efforts to improve relations with South Korea, old habits die hard. Today North Korean media launched a vicious personal attack on the South Korean leader. 

  

October 3, 2013: Japan and the United States agreed to expand their military alliance. This means an American missile defense radar system would be built in Japan and the U.S. would station large (Reaper and Global Hawk) UAVs in Japan. The X Band radar the U.S. will install near Kyoto will give Japan anti-missile systems more warning that a missile is headed towards Japan. This is mostly directed at North Korea, which generally threatens Japan whenever South Korea is warned about where North Korea ballistic missiles might be aimed. The American UAVs would help Japan monitor offshore areas where Chinese warships are showing up with greater frequency. 

Report: N. Korea Deploys New Guns Along Border

North Korea has deployed new rocket launchers along its border capable of hitting targets beyond Seoul, a report said Sunday.

Artillery units from the North were spotted replacing older multiple rocket stations with an upgraded version of the 240mm guns, Yonhap news agency said.

The agency quoted an unnamed government official as saying the new multiple rocket launchers with a maximum range of 70 kilome ters (42 miles) could extend their reach beyond the South Korean capital.

The South’s defense ministry declined to confirm the report.

North Korea has 5,100 multiple rocket launchers, according to military data.

It has been eager to upgrade its mainstream multiple rocket launchers, which pose a serious security threat to South Korea.

Residents in Seoul and neighboring satellite cities, together home to nearly half the South’s 49 million people, have always lived under threat of attack from the North’s rockets and long-range artillery.

In 2010, North Korea using multiple rocket launchers shelled a South Korean island near the disputed Yellow Sea border, killing four people.

North Korea ‘deliberately breached’ Chinese contract over missile vehicles: U.N. report

The U.N. Security Council’s sanctions committee on North Korea has concluded that Pyongyang appears to have “deliberately breached” a contract with a Chinese company by converting Chinese lumber transporters into missile launch transporters, according to a U.N. report on Wednesday.

The 16-wheel missile launch transporter was seen at North Korea’s military parade in April last year, raising concerns that the vehicle’s design and technology might have come from China. If so, it would be a violation of U.N. resolutions that ban member states from selling “all arms and related materials” to the North.

In its annual report, the Security Council’s North Korea Sanctions Committee Panel of Experts said, citing a Chinese briefing to the committee in October last year, the Chinese company named Hubei Sanjiang Space Wanshan Special Vehicle Co. exported six lumber transporters to North Korea in 2011.

China told the committee that, “These vehicles had a substantive distinction from transporter-erector-launchers or missile transporters and could not be used for transporting or launching missiles,” according to the annual report.

The North’s Forestry Ministry Rim Mok General Trading Co. signed a contract to buy the six vehicles worth 30 million yuan (about US$4.9 million) from the Chinese company.

According to the contract, North Korea said the vehicles would be used for “transporting the timbers in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea).”

Citing an image analysis conducted by the U.N. Institute for Training and Research Operational Satellite Applications Program, the North Korean missile vehicles and the Chinese vehicles named “WS51200″ match in terms of their “fronts and sides, the fenders, the exhaust systems, fuel tanks and tires,” the U.N. report showed.

“On the basis of the information currently available, the panel considers it most likely that the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea deliberately breached the end user guarantee that it officially provided to Wuhan and converted the WS51200 trucks into transporter-erector-launchers,” it said.

North Korea, which has conducted three nuclear tests since 2006, has been hit by a series of U.N. sanctions.

The U.N. panel said the U.N. sanctions have delayed the North’s development of missile and nuclear arsenal.

“Overall, the panel believes that while the imposition of sanctions has not halted the development of nuclear and ballistic missile programs, it has in all likelihood considerably delayed the timetable of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, through the imposition of financial sanctions and the bans on the trade in weapons has choked off significant funding which would have been channeled into its prohibited activities,” it said.

“In both its imports and exports, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea continues to use a variety of techniques to circumvent national controls, indicating that the imposition of sanctions has hampered its arms sales and illicit weapon programs.”

North Korea tried to sell 3,500KM range missiles – arms trader

North Korea offered 3,500km intermediate range ballistic missiles to UK arms dealer Michael Ranger, information detailed in a new UN report has revealed for the first time.

Representatives from the North Korean front company Hesong Trading Corporation allegedly offered Mr. Ranger modern and vintage small arms and light weapons, GPS jammers, multiple launch rocket systems, and “extraordinarily,” ballistic missiles with a range of up to 3,500 km.

“The price per unit was in excess of US$ 100 million for those intermediate-range ballistic missiles and would be sold not less than three at a time, mixed as one long-range and two medium-range missiles or one medium-range and two long-range missiles”, testimony provided by Mr. Ranger to the UN explained.

Although North Korea has a long history of selling short-range SCUD-type ballistic missiles to governments in the Middle East, to date there have been no reports of “medium” and “long-range” missile-types being offered to foreign clients.

“DISTURBING” REVELATIONS

While no explicit link is made in the report, the range of the missiles offered to Mr. Ranger coincides very closely with North Korea’s only known intermediate-range missile, the Musudan, says Mark Fitzpatrick, Director of the Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Programme at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

“3,500km is the range sometimes mentioned for the Musudan.  They don’t have any other missiles in that medium-range category,” Fitzpatrick told NK News by email.

North Korea first showcased the Musudan to the outside world at an October 2010 military parade covered by international media. But despite the strident parade and subsequent spike in reporting on the missile type, the Musudan is not known to have ever been flight-tested.

“It’s very disturbing that North Korea is seeking to sell such systems, though the fact that they have never been tested in North Korea should make any would-be buyers wary,” Mr. Fitzpatrick further explained to NK News.

The Korean People’s Army was suspected of putting two Musudans into “launch-ready” status during tensions with South Korea and the U.S. earlier this year.

However, those launches never took place, leading some analysts to question whether the Musudan is real or not. That Mr. Ranger was offered the Musudan is therefore a noteworthy development.

SALES TECHNIQUE?

Although Mr. Ranger’s claims shed new light on how North Korean officials might be marketing the DPRK’s latest missile capabilities to foreign clients, experts suggest that his allegations should be taken with a pinch of salt.

“Regarding the price, number and specifications of intermediate-range ballistic missiles claimed to have been on offer to Mr Ranger- there appears to be no means of verifying his claims,” Lawrence Dermody, an arms researcher at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute told NK News.

“However, it’s certainly possible that Hesong representatives had an interest in exaggerating technology on offer to establish relationships with potential buys or secure related contracts.”

Another analyst familiar with the UN report, who wished to remain anonymous, echoed Mr. Dermody’s suspicions: ”It is possible that this was the DPRK flying a kite to observe Mr Ranger’s reaction.”

INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CONUNDRUM

Even if Musudan missiles really were for sale, tightened international sanctions and intensified monitoring of cargo into and out of the DPRK would have made it extremely difficult for someone like Mr. Ranger to guarantee deliveries to would-be-clients.

“It is not clear how the DPRK would ship such missiles if indeed they sold them. Given their bulk, however, they would probably use maritime rather than air routes,” an analyst familiar with sanctions told NK News.

But after the high-profile turnaround of the Kang Nam 1, a North Korean vessel suspected to have been transporting missile parts to Myanmar in 2009, increased scrutiny over DPRK sea-lanes suggest that UN sanctions may be adding serious hurdles to North Korea’s capacity to sell advanced weapons systems.

Faced with an increasingly tight sanctions regime, the latest UN report says that North Korea has few direct connections with mainstream shipping companies and has to “charter feeder vessels to carry cargo to regional hubs in neighboring countries”.

Doing so is not cheap and the principal reason why a sale of between 70 and 100 man-portable air defense systems from North Korea to Azerbaijan, orchestrated by UK national Mr. Ranger, fell apart.

“The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea looks carefully at the bottom line and rejects orders for small quantities because of higher per-unit manufacturing and/or transport costs”, the UN report explains.

When Mr. Ranger’s client requested a sample of 10 man-portable air defense systems to be tested in Azerbaijan before committing to the full purchase, North Korea insisted that testing must take place on DPRK territory. But because of the risks involved in shipping even small cargoes, it simply wasn’t cost-effective for Pyongyang to export such a small cache and risk interception.

ONGOING EXPORTS?

Despite a tightening sanctions regime and steadily increasing number of arms-related interceptions being revealed the latest UN report, experts warn that sanctioned North Korean weapons exports could still be continuing under the radar.

Nevertheless, Martin Uden, coordinator of the UN Panel of Experts, told NK News: ”While there are gaps in implementation and arms exports are doubtless continuing, it’s clear that the DPRK is having to go to extreme lengths to circumvent UN sanctions, making it more and more difficult, expensive and time-consuming to pursue this illegal trade.”

But an analyst familiar with sanctions said of the repeated references to Dalian based entities in the latest UN report, ”It is clear that the Chinese port [of Dalian] has continued to be deeply involved in the DPRK’s illicit activities during the period covered by the report.”…

Navy ships form first line of US missile defence against Iran and North Korea

The United States, in response to advances in missile threats from Iran and North Korea in recent years, has become more invested in Navy cruisers and destroyers that carry a high-tech radar system and dozens of missile interceptors. 

As a result, the ballistic missile defence destroyers and cruisers that carry the high-tech Aegis system are a growing capability that is in hot demand by military commanders across the Middle East, Europe and the Pacific. 

"They give the capability to the combatant commanders that allows them to position (the ships) where there's a need, and we feel they're a pretty good investment," said Admiral Bill Gortney, commander of US Fleet Forces in Norfolk. Unlike other missile defence systems, he said the ships are "able to sail to where the crisis is." 

Dr Anthony Cordesman, a national security expert at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said the ships provide a layered defence that can quickly provide warning and details of a missile launch in areas of the world where there may be only a limited time to mount a response. And they present an added complication and deterrent for an adversary such as North Korea or Iran that may be trying to target a nearby US ally - such as South Korea or Israel.

North Korea - Send in The Serfs

In the north the senior leadership of the military has been reshuffled for the third time since Kim Jong Un came to power 18 months ago. This time, more aggressive generals have been put into the top spots. It’s likely that the reassignments (most of those replaced are given other senior level jobs, not arrested or forced to retire) are more about getting people more loyal to the new leader into key jobs. 

Kim Jong Un is very young (about 30) to be supreme leader (at least by Korean standards) and not enthusiastically accepted by much of the ruling class and considered suspect by more conservative North Koreans in general. Kim Jong Un and other members of the Kim clan have struggled for over a year to create more loyalty for the new leader. This is difficult in the face of continuing economic problems and the growing realization by most North Koreans that they have been lied to for decades and that they do not live in the best of all possible worlds.

 

With China recently joining the international banking sanctions against North Korea, foreign aid organizations are running out of money. That’s because the North Korean government has refused to let some of them to receive money transfers via banks that are allowed to handle foreign investment (and not subject to the sanctions). In particular, North Korea refused UN aid agencies permission to use this approach, as a way to pressure the UN to do what the North Korean government wants. For example, the governments wants the UN to drop demands that foreign aid be monitored to ensure that it is not diverted to the military or sold on the open market to raise cash. The only option left to the UN is to ask foreign embassies to allow the movement of cash via diplomatic pouch (the custom of allowing embassies to ship in or out whatever they want without North Korean inspection or intervention). Embassies are reluctant to do that because, technically, it violates the rules that govern the immunity enjoyed by diplomatic pouch shipments. 

 

North Korea has ordered the increased use of slave labor in China, as a way to obtain more foreign currency (needed to buy imports). All North Korean state owned businesses (most are) have been given permission to try and make deals with Chinese businesses in which China will provide everything but the labor for enterprises in China or North Korea. The labor (most of it) will come from North Korea, which rents their people to the enterprises at low rates and shares the profits. 

North Korea has been doing this for years, mainly with China and Russia and South Korea, in the recently closed Kaesong Industrial Complex (in North Korea but financed and run by over a hundred South Korean firms). Most of these new enterprises will be set up in China, as Chinese businesses are reluctant to invest inside North Korea because too many of those firms have been plundered and cheated by the North Korean government. This practice of renting out North Korean labor is not exactly slavery but is a form of serfdom (where the citizens have some rights but their movements are strictly controlled by their overlord). The government is increasingly using economic incentives to encourage the serfs to be more productive. This trend has led to the elimination of serfdom in most of the rest of the world over the last few centuries. Russia, for example, only eliminated serfdom in the 19^th century and China a century later. 

 

For the first time North Korea has ordered school children as young as nine to “volunteer” to work on farms for the planting season. Normally only teenage students are sent, but the government has promised to increase food production and this is one of the extraordinary methods being used. Another is the use of scarce foreign currency to import more fertilizer from China. 

 

Desperate to reduce the rampant smuggling of people and goods along the Chinese border, the government is offering membership in the ruling Workers’ Party for any border guard who turns in another border guard who is taking bribes to allow this smuggling to go on. This offer includes forgiveness for past crimes (like bribe taking) by the informer. Membership in the party is a prerequisite to financial success in North Korea. Only about a quarter of the adult population are members. The top ten percent of party members do very well economically and all party members get priority over non-members when it comes to distribution of food or favors. 

 

May 23, 2013: A North Korean general sent to China to negotiate “peace” with China announced that North Korea had agreed to economic reforms, less warlike behavior, and peace talks with its neighbors (especially South Korea and Japan, along with Russia and the United States). In return China will reduce its sanctions. North Korea sent this emissary to China in response to Chinese displeasure at North Korea’s warlike behavior over the past few months. In addition to openly criticizing North Korea, which is rare, China also imposed more of the international economic sanctions on North Korea. China had refrained from this in the past and shrugged off the international criticism. But North Korean refusal to enact economic reforms (and cease being an economic burden on mentor China) and growing hostility towards South Korea and foreigners in general has made the Chinese very, very angry. North Korea has several other incentives to halt its months of warlike rhetoric. For one thing, the nuclear weapons and ballistic missile projects that caused the sanctions in the first place have been hurt by the new sanctions. This is especially true since China cracked down on illegal items, related to nuclear and missile development, moving in and out of North Korea. 

 

May 21, 2013: North Korean kidnappers released a Chinese fishing ship and its 16 man crew they had seized on May 5^th.  The boat was taken in international waters (100 kilometers from North Korea) by armed men dressed in North Korean military uniforms. The kidnappers moved the captured ship closer to North Korea and kept the crew prisoner at sea while they tried to extract a $100,000 ransom from the families of the fishermen and owner of the ship. Instead the owner eventually contacted the Chinese government, which in turn went after their North Korean counterparts. This sort of thing has happened before, the latest incident was a year ago and aggressive Chinese diplomacy got the ship released. Although the ship and crew were released, the kidnappers took five tons of diesel oil, six barrels of gasoline, and other supplies. The kidnappers had removed portable electronics but returned these before releasing the ship and crew. Apparently these were rogue coast guardsmen seeking to make a lot of money. North Korea coast guard boats often extort cash and goods from foreign (usually Chinese) fishing boats that come close to the coast. Fishing boats often will pay up just to get the armed North Koreans off their boat. But $100,000 is more than what is normally carried on a fishing boat and had to involve people ashore. Some coast guards may have successfully carried out kidnappings like this in the past and it never got reported (because of threats to hunt down and kill whoever blabbed). In any event, the North Korean government was silent on this incident.  

 

May 20, 2013: For the third day in a row North Korea fired something into its offshore waters. This time it was apparently two short range rockets. In the last three days six rockets or missiles have been fired. Normally this would not be news because any military with a large stock of rockets and missiles (like North Korea) will regularly fire some of them for testing, training, or because they are too old to keep around and must either be used or discarded (which can be expensive). But because this is belligerent North Korea, any such firings becomes newsworthy events. 

 

May 15, 2013: North Korea refused to negotiate over allowing South Korean companies to recover assets at the Kaesong Industrial Complex, which was shut down by North Korea in April. This put over 50,000 North Koreans out of work. The South Korean government provided help with the losses suffered by the South Korean companies that operated the Kaesong factories. North Korea has blamed South Korea for all this and is quietly trying to get jobs in China for some of the unemployed Kaesong workers. Most of the workers and their families brought to Kaesong to work in the South Korean factories are being sent back to the other parts of North Korea they came from. Shutting down Kaesong cost the North Korean government a lot of money, since the wages of the Kaesong workers were heavily taxed. Such workers are often housed in dormitories where they can be watched by North Korean secret police. Any workers who try to defect would be putting their family into prison, which was a death sentence for the very young and very old. North Korean workers don’t like working outside the country when they have to leave their families behind. But working in Russia and China was at least a job and you got enough to eat.

The Chinese Air Force Underground

North Korea is not the only nation in East Asia to have built underground airbases. China has the largest number of these in the world (about 40). These facilities have the capacity to protect at least 1,500 aircraft. The airstrips (for takeoffs and landings) are not underground, but the storage and maintenance areas are, along with fuel, ammo and maintenance and airstrip repair equipment.

 

These bases make it difficult for anyone to destroy Chinese aircraft on the ground. While the airstrips can be heavily damaged from the air, the repair equipment and airfield engineers are under cover and can quickly repair the worst damage. The U.S. Air Force has developed a number of ground penetrating bombs for facilities like this. Although these “bunker buster” bombs are usually mentioned in connection with Iran, its North Korea and China that have far more underground military facilities. The U.S. continues to develop these ground penetrating bombs and are always looking for new details on the construction of underground Chinese facilities. 

 

These bases provide considerable protection from surprise attack and give China an edge in any protracted war. The U.S. would be using bases in the region that are not underground and sometimes do not even have concrete hangers for all aircraft. China makes heavy use of ballistic missiles (most with range of 300-700 kilometers and carrying a half ton warhead). There are nearly 2,000 of these and many are aimed at airfields in neighboring countries. The missiles are mobile and also have underground shelters. This extensive use of underground shelters greatly increases the capabilities of Chinese airpower.

China - Cracking Down On North Korea

China is allowing North Korea to continue hosting tourists from China. These visitors are a valuable source of foreign exchange for North Korea and some 20,000 Chinese tourists visit each year on these day trips. North Korea recently advised the Chinese tour operators that they could include non-Chinese (including Westerners). This is one of the few bits of good news for North Korea from China recently. In the last two weeks China has found numerous ways to express its displeasure over North Korean aggressiveness towards its southern neighbor (a major trading partner with China and much easier to deal with) and continued efforts to develop nuclear weapon equipped ballistic missiles. These nukes are thought to be intended to threaten the West (and Japanese) but they could also be pointed at China. This, and so many other things North Korea has done (like not reforming its economy as China did in the 1980s) has apparently become intolerable for China and, without making any public announcements of a shift in policy, China has become much more hostile to the North Korean government of Kim Jong Un. This includes grooming his older brother Kim Jong Nam to replace him. Kim Jong Nam was long believed to be the heir apparent to Kim Jong Il but this heir was too much of a playboy and had an unhealthy (to North Korean officials) positive attitude towards the West and the way China was run. Kim Jong Nam spent much of his time in China and basically lives there supported in luxurious fashion by the Chinese government. That includes protection from any North Korean assassins who might be sent to kill him (by his nervous younger brother.) China has long recruited members of the North Korean leadership, usually via favors, like tolerating their private business enterprises in China. The Kim clan in North Korea has fought this infiltration as best it can, firing officials thought to be pro-Chinese and even executing a few. But Chinese economic activity in North Korea is so widespread and crucial that is has proved impossible to shut the Chinese agents out. This new Chinese pressure could result in push-back in the form of more real or suspected pro-Chinese North Korean officials losing their jobs, freedom or lives.

 

Succession conspiracies aside China has imposed some more immediate and debilitating restrictions on North Korea. Access to Chinese banks is being cut off, one bank at a time. This makes it very difficult for North Korea to pay for illegal imports and get profits for illegal exports (weapons, drugs, counterfeit currency). China has ordered border police to police to crack down on the illegal North Korean smuggling. This was long tolerated as long as the drugs and counterfeit currency did not land in China. That rule was not always obeyed by North Korea and now China is making up for lost retribution. The Chinese border guards can be bribed (with a lot more money), but that won’t shut down all the many other Chinese security organizations under the same orders to block those exports. 

North Korea, fearful that China will cut off oil imports is trying to make a deal with Iran to trade iron ore for oil, but that assumes the Chinese (and American and so on) navies will allow those tankers and ore carriers to complete their deliveries. That is not likely to happen. North Koreans view all this with dread, because for centuries this is how China handled troublesome neighbors. American diplomats have openly praised China for all these moves. 

 

May 15, 2013: Japan announced it could, not that it would, attack unidentified submarines approaching the disputed Senkaku Islands. Apparently Japanese warships recently detected such a sub near the Senkakus and believed it was Chinese. International law prohibits foreign ships (especially warships) to get any closer than 22 kilometers from another nation’s coast without permission. Since Japan has long owned and controlled the unpopulated Senkakus it enforces the 22 kilometer “territorial waters.” 

 

May 13, 2013: Three Chinese warships approached the territorial waters of the Senkaku Islands and briefly entered them (getting closer than 22 kilometers to one of the islands.) China has been probing like this with increasing frequency, using ships and aircraft (both military and commercial). 

 

May 11, 2013: Britain and the United States both report numerous new efforts by Chinese hackers to obtain secret data about the new American F-35 stealth warplane. British firms are developing some of the F-35 components. The Chinese deny these charges, but more evidence of Chinese involvement is being released. 

 

May 8, 2013:  The government has another corruption embarrassment with revelations that the 41 year old granddaughter (Kong Dongmei) of communist China founder Mao Zedong is worth nearly $800 million and is listed as 242 on a list of the 500 wealthiest Chinese. Kong Dongmei also has three children, a violation of the one-child policy. Mao Zedong (who died in 1976) was always a strong believer in state ownership of everything and no private property. Many Chinese still regard Mao Zedong as a hero, even though those polices led to the death of over 20 million Chinese and the impoverishment of most of the population. 

 

May 7, 2013: The Philippines protested the presence of Chinese warships 11 kilometers from Ayungin Shoal in the Spratly Islands. The Philippines claims part of the Spratly Islands (which are closer to the Philippines than China) and Ayungin Shoal is occupied by Filipino military personnel. 

 

May 5, 2013: Indian and Chinese officers met to resolve yet another border dispute and a bit of Chinese aggression. China agreed to withdraw its intruding troops while India agreed to remove some border posts that had annoyed the Chinese. Both nations declared victory, but the Chinese got more out of the deal. It was all about twenty or so Chinese troops who have been camped out 19 kilometers inside Indian Kashmir since April 15th. China said their troops were not inside India, something India disputed. Neither country seemed eager to escalate this, or resolve it but negotiations eventually began. China initially said it would withdraw if India would abandon an observation post in the mountains that overlooked Chinese positions. The Indian outpost was in Indian territory but the Chinese don’t like being watched. The Indians refused and pointed out that there had been three other Chinese incursions recently, but these troops did not linger. India saw all this as the Chinese way of applying pressure on India to withdraw from territory claimed by India. The Chinese stood fast and once more this tactic worked. Many Indians were appalled at how their government had given in to Chinese aggression. Indian politicians and media are pressuring the government to fight back next time, and everyone assumes there will be a next time.

North Korea And The High Tech Horror

The growing tension in Korea, where North Korea keeps threatening war, has a large number of people in the consumer electronics business worried. If there were a war that lasted long enough and did enough damage to disrupt production of the many electronics components South Korea supplies, there would be a lot fewer cell phones, PCs (desktop, laptop and tablet) and flat screen displays (for PCs or TVs) available worldwide. We’re talking major shortages. South Korean firms are the largest producers of smart phones (Samsung) and flat screen everything (Samsung and several others).

 

The South Korean military understands the importance of protecting its economic assents in general and the high-value electronic industry in particular. The South Korean war plan, while classified, is known to take account of the need to defend these assets. This is crucial because some of the electronics component manufacturing plants would take several years to rebuild, and put thousands of highly skilled people out of work in the process and cause South Korean firms to lose customers and future sales to competitors. 

 

The disruptive impact of such losses is not theoretical, it has already happened. In the last decade floods in Thailand and earthquakes in Japan have disrupted supplies of key electronics. This caused shortages and sharply increasing prices. The floods in Thailand two years ago disrupted the supply, and prices for hard drives worldwide, because Thailand is where many of the largest plants are located. South Korea is even more critical because many electronics items are not just assembled there, but key components are designed and manufactured as well. Some of that work requires highly complex and expensive factories to get it all done. If there were extensive damage to these plants there would be shortages of many popular electronics items, prices would double (or worse) for what is available and it would take more than a year for the situation to be rectified.

 

It’s not just civilian consumers that would feel the pinch, but the military as well. Many key military electronics items are built from South Korean components. The exact impact of that is not talked about openly by the military, but apparently the impact would be very serious, especially for the production of expendable items (like missiles).

The North Korean Solution

Some 70 percent of North Korean ground forces are within a hundred kilometers of the DMZ (Demilitarized Zone, the border with the south.) This is the main threat to South Korea but two decades of money, fuel and food shortages have greatly reduced North Korean Army capabilities. Two decades of extreme poverty have done even more damage to the navy and air force. While the North Korean Navy was never meant to be a major factor, the air force was meant to be a crucial element in countering, for a few days at least, the far superior South Korean and American air forces. 

The North Koreans have been desperate to maintain and upgrade their air force but have been unable to do much since the 1990s. The last “new” aircraft North Korea was able to obtain were 40 MiG-21s secretly purchased from Kazakhstan in 1999.

 

Recently South Korea got to see how far gone the North Korean air forces were. Back in 2010, after North Korea attacked South Korea twice (sinking a corvette with a torpedo and shelling a town on a South Korean island near North Korea), there was a period of extremely high tension on the border. Both Koreas put their armed forces on alert, a higher alert than had been used for decades.  What the South Korean intel analysts were particularly amazed by was the poor performance of the North Korean air force during this hasty mobilization as air patrols were greatly increased. It was known that North Korean pilots had been getting less and less flying time in the past decade, but when ordered into the air on a large scale for this hasty mobilization, the results were amazingly bad. The flying skills of combat pilots were particularly unimpressive, as was the performance of many aircraft (indicating poor maintenance). There were several crashes, and many near misses in the air, and a general sense of confusion among the North Korean Air Force commanders and troops. American and North Korean radars were able to record all this and satellite photos showed the aftermath.

 

While North Korea was apparently trying to impress, and intimidate South Korea with this display of aerial might, the impact was just the opposite. With the exception of ten MiG-29s, the North Korean air force consists of 1,300 Cold War era Russian and Chinese aircraft, about half of them combat planes. The Chinese aircraft are knockoffs of older Russian designs, and most of the North Korean fleet consists of aircraft designs that were getting old in the 1970s. The North Korean Air Force training exercise merely confirmed what many South Korean and American intelligence analysts already suspected; that the North Korean Air Force could barely fly, and hardly fight.

 

The most modern aircraft the North Koreans have are 40 MiG-29s they got in the 1980s, when they were still getting freebies from the Soviet Union. The rest of their combat aircraft are poorly maintained and infrequently used (because of fuel and spare parts shortages) antiques. There are 50 MiG-23s, an unreliable 1960s design which few other countries still use. There are about 190 MiG-21s (40 of them Chinese copies of the Russian design) and about 90 each of F-6s and F-5s (Chinese copies of the MiG-19 and MiG-17, both 1950s designs hardly anyone else uses). They have 160 bombers and ground attack aircraft, most of them elderly Russian and Chinese designs. The best of this lot are the 32 Su-25s, which are a decent contemporary of the U.S. A-10 that has proven itself in Afghanistan and the Caucasus. 

 

The helicopter force is also elderly. The best of them are 20 Russian Mi-24 gunships and 80 American MD-500D smuggled in from Germany in the 1980s. Perhaps the most dangerous aircraft are 300 AN-2 single engine bi-plane transports. A sturdy Russian aircraft which, although designed in the 1940s, was simple, rugged, popular and remained in production until a decade ago. Able to carry ten passengers, the North Korean AN-2s have been seen practicing flying low and at night. 

Since each AN-2 can carry ten soldiers, they are believed meant to deliver commandos in South Korea early in any way. Several thousand of these troops could cause a lot of confusion as South Korea mobilized for war. But in the last five years fuel shortages have meant few AN-2s have been flying. That means the pilots are not really skilled enough to carry off a night operation, especially flying low (to avoid radar) through the mountains separating the two Koreas. Using AN-2s now would lead to a lot of them, if not most of them not making it. Then there are whatever surprises South Korea and the U.S. have developed to counter this daring use of AN-2s. 

 

The North Korean generals are aware of their aircraft deficiencies and have tried to make up for it with a large anti-aircraft system. But they have mostly very old missiles and lots of small-caliber anti-aircraft guns. The U.S. is very good at taking out radars and communications needed to make a nationwide anti-aircraft system work. It comes down to who is better prepared and equipped. The North Koreans might have some secret tricks, but they definitely don’t have the tech or the track record that the U.S. possesses. 

 

To make up for their lack of offensive aircraft North Korea depends increasingly on ballistic missiles. The main weapon here is the liquid fuel SCUD, of which North Korea has about 500 in working order. The big drawback here is that it takes several hours to fuel these missiles. While this could be done in caves, the North Koreans depend on being able to keep the location of the caves secret.

Otherwise they entrances will be bombed early on, leaving the missiles trapped underground and useless until dug out. The North Koreans believe that if they can develop compact and reliable nuclear weapons and equip some of their ballistic missiles with them they will have a reliable weapon to protect the tyrants who run the country. At the moment, the air force is certainly not able to do the job.

Why North Korea Never Actually Launched That Rocket

Just a few weeks ago, analysts and experts were trumpeting the inevitability of North Korea's next rocket launch.

The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) "neared the danger line," U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel warned. Pentagon officials told Fox News a North Korean "missile test could happen anytime," and a prominent arms analyst proclaimed a launch to be "imminent."

After all that fuss, the DPRK dismantled the missiles and quietly put them back into warehouses. Whew, that was close ... or was it? One expert told us the DPRK mostly uses missiles for intimidation and that the rockets are actually pretty failure-prone.

"As North Korea has learned with its intercontinental range missiles like the Unha 3, launch failures undercut their missile credibility. North Korea heavily tries to use its missiles for strategic intimidation," Dr. Bruce Bennett, a DPRK weapons expert at the Rand Corporation, said via email.

The unspoken question lurking in the shadow of North Korea's imminent April launch seemed to be, "Would it even get off the ground?" Regardless of the answer, the DPRK may have achieved its main objective of "strategic intimidation."

The U.S. reacted militarily and politically, Bennett noted. It issued several statements to the DPRK leadership. It flew B-2 bomber sorties and even moved special THAAD missile systems to Guam.

And the intimidation was likely internal as well. The Americans ended its bilateral training with South Korea just days prior to the North taking down those missiles. That move could have set up North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un to propagandize about repelling an American invasion.

Of course, actually firing the missiles once those objectives were achieved has a lot of risk attached.

"The North may be reluctant to test a missile that has a reasonable possibility of failure," Bennett says.

A rocket blowing up on the launch pad certainly would have taken the wind out of North Korea's threats. Launching the rocket also could have upset its best ally — China.

"North Korea may also be reluctant to test a missile if the test could cause a serious negative reaction from China — Chinese leaders appear to already be seriously unhappy with North Korean bad behavior," Bennett says.

Korea - The Winners

North Korea continues to refuse calls to halt their nuclear weapons and long-range missiles program. That stubbornness has resulted in a growing list of international trade sanctions. In response the north has threatened war with South Korea in increasingly hostile terms in the last few months. War would hurt South Korea, but it would destroy North Korea and no one is quite sure what North Korea is up to. China is among the perplexed. It appears that the North Korean leadership is split on what to do about the continued economic and social problems. Although GDP has increased by 25 percent in the last decade, most of that increase went to the military and the few thousand families that run the country. They have flat screen TVs, new cars and impressive homes (visible on Google Earth) outside the capital. Inside Pyongyang there is a lot of new construction, including stores selling luxury goods. 

In the rest of the country all you see is a poorly maintained slum with frequent electrical blackouts and growing shortages of fuel for heating and transportation. The GDP growth comes largely by allowing Chinese firms to operate mines and factories, using cheaper North Korean labor. The government seizes most of the profits from this increased economic activity, leaving most North Koreans with less than they had a decade ago. This has caused growing unrest, including anti-government graffiti (unknown a decade ago) and more people fleeing to China and from there to South Korea with details of the hell up north. China has been urging North Korea to allow economic freedom, as China did in the 1980s. But many in the North Korean leadership believe this would lead to revolution and catastrophe for them.

 

North Korea has put more restrictions on travel to the Chinese border. Like most old-school communist police states everyone must carry an internal passport at all times and you need a permit to travel outside your home town. For those travelling to areas near the Chinese border additional permissions and documentation must now be obtained. This puts pressure on the government and secret police officials involved because for everyone they approve who disappears (and is presumed to have fled to China) the responsible official is in trouble. Too much of that can get you sent to prison. Despite the risk, $50-100 in bribes will get you past all the document checks as you get near to the Chinese border.

 

One reason for this crackdown on travel to the Chinese border is increased hostility towards the North Korean government by China. This is expressed in several ways. For example Chinese officials will not meet with their North Korean counterparts. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un recently sought to arrange a visit to China, but his officials who went to China to arrange the trip last month were snubbed and came back without meeting any senior Chinese officials. At the border crossings Chinese border guards are interfering with North Korean government exports of drugs and counterfeit U.S. currency, as well as blocking some imports. China is sending less fuel and food. China is unhappy with North Korean threats of war and this is how China sends the message. So far North Korea has not responded in a dramatic fashion, but it has been gradually toning down the threatening gestures (long range missiles readied for launch, additional troop activity along the DMZ and anti-South Korea propaganda).  Officially North Korea is still getting ready for war. 

 

The North Korean government is trying to find new jobs for the workers at the recently closed (by North Korea) Kaesong Industrial Complex in North Korea. This put over 50,000 North Koreans out of work. The South Korean government is providing help with the losses suffered by the South Korean companies that operated the Kaesong factories. North Korea has blamed South Korea for all this and is quietly trying to get jobs in China for some of the unemployed Kaesong workers. Most of the workers and their families brought to Kaesong to work in the South Korea factories are being sent back to the other parts of North Korea they came from. Shutting down Kaesong cost the North Korean government a lot of money since the wages of the Kaesong workers were heavily taxed. 

North Korea has long exported workers to China and Russia, as long as the workers were housed in dormitories where they could be watched by North Korean secret police. Any of these workers who tried to defect would be putting their family into prison, which was a death sentence for the very young and very old. North Korean workers don’t like working outside the country when they have to leave their families behind. But working in Russia and China was at least a job and you got enough to eat.

South Korea has lost more than money with the closure of Kaesong. The South Korean managers have long been a good source of intel on the north. One of the last bits of such intel received was North Korean officials fearing that the 50,000 workers at Kaesong were learning too much about the higher standard of living in South Korea and were beginning to question the mismanagement of the North Korean economy. Apparently this has been a problem for several years and the decision to shut down Kaesong was delayed because of all the cash it was bringing in for the North Korean government. The North Korean government is also trying to ensure that the former Kaesong workers do not pollute other North Koreans with impure thought. To that end these workers are being forced to attend two hours a day of indoctrination and reminders that North Korea is the worker’s paradise and that South Korea is evil incarnate. The workers are unhappy with the mandatory indoctrination sessions, and the sharp drop in income. 

 

South Koreans appear less concerned about the North Korean threat than many foreign countries (like the United States and Japan). That’s because South Koreans believe that aside from all the hostile rhetoric, in the end the people of North Korea and South Korea are all Koreans and that something can be worked out. The alternative is fixating on another war, which benefits neither the north nor the south. Nevertheless, many South Koreans are beginning to wonder just how deranged and unpredictable the leaders up north really are. 

 

Although North Korea has been receiving technical assistance on ballistic missile design from China and Russia for decades, it is obvious that not enough such help has been provided to enable the North Koreans to perfect their long range (over 1,000 kilometers) multi-stage rockets. Satellite photos of launch sites and some test results are public information. From this it is obvious that the North Korean long-range missile program is a low-budget operation that emphasizes spectacular propaganda events, not systematic development of useful capabilities. The North Koreans are trying to leapfrog the tedious development process used by the U.S., Russia and China and ends up launching high-risk rocket designs. That’s why they have such a high failure rate. North Korea builds most of the rocket components itself and these are largely simple technology that has been around for a while. The problem they have is assembling all the thousands of parts to create a workable and reliable long-range rocket. Even when they have a successful test, it’s doubtful that they have a very reliable design. 

 

North Korea appears to have followed the same path in developing nuclear weapons. The three North Korean weapons tests conducted so far indicate a crude design. This would appear to mean North Korea had to develop the design largely by themselves. A separate question is whether Russia supplied technical help on adapting a nuclear weapon to handle the physical and electronic stresses of being launched by a ballistic missile. This is no trivial task and problems with warhead design continue to plague the existing nuclear powers. It would appear that the North Koreans have not yet “weaponized” their nuclear device design to work in a missile (or even an aircraft bomb). But the possibility of illicitly obtained Russian tech is always there until evidence to the contrary is found. The same with technical assistance from Pakistan, which was helped by China to develop its nuclear warhead equipped missiles.  In the end the biggest obstacle the North Koreans face is a reliable warhead design. Testing such a design without actually firing a live nuke into the ocean requires another bunch of tech (and high-performance computers) that North Korea does not have. 

 

May 4, 2013: South Korean pro-democracy activists (many of them refugees from the north) attempting to release balloons (carrying 200,000 leaflets and cheap consumer goods into the north) were stopped by police. Police have often tried to prevent these balloon launchings in the past, and usually failed. But this time the cops shut it down at a park six kilometers from the DMZ. Police also halted a balloon launch last month. This time local villagers had complained to the police, fearing that this time North Korea would make good on its frequent threats to fire artillery at the launch sites. The North Korean artillery has never fired after these balloons floated north. When the balloons reach the north police and soldiers are sent out to seize the cargo carried by the balloons, lest northerners be polluted by this South Korean propaganda. Over the years, many of these downed balloons have been found by civilians and the word slowly circulated about what the message really was. China has long called for the two Korea’s to stop threatening each other over this use of balloons. This has been going on for years. To the north, this is a deliberate provocation by the south. But the reality is that many South Koreans want the North Korean dictatorship to collapse and that is more likely to happen when more North Koreans know the truth about life in the two Koreas. For decades the North Korean government has restricted information in the north and smothered the people with propaganda describing the north as the best of all possible worlds and the south as worse off. In the last decade, more and more northerners have learned the truth and this has caused confusion, fear, corruption and calls for change. Many northern leaders believe some of their own propaganda, and don’t understand how a democracy works. They cannot comprehend people doing anything without first obtaining permission from a government official. The balloon releases must be a South Korean government operation. In the most recent case the north openly threatened military action if balloons were released again. Southern officials responded that the south would fire back if attacked, but in the end the southern government did ban the balloon release. 

 

May 2, 2013: A North Korean court sentenced American Kenneth Bae to 15 years in prison after convicting him of espionage and plotting to overthrow the North Korean government. Bae was a tour operator and advocate for more aid to starving North Koreans. The charges against him described setting up a network of anti-North Korea programs in China and smuggling anti-government literature into North Korea. No evidence was presented at the trial and Bae, who was said to have confessed, did not testify. This is the fourth American to be seized and prosecuted in North Korea since 2009. Bae was arrested there six months ago. The other three Americans were eventually freed after negotiations with North Korea. 

 

April 26, 2013: North Korea refused a South Korean offer to negotiate a peaceful settlement of whatever complaints the north has. The south was particularly eager to reopen the Kaesong industrial park in North Korea, where 53,000 North Koreans work for 123 South Korean firms.

Loose lips: Candid camera club alerts North Korea of USS Nimitz's arrival

It wasn’t a tapped phone, a hacked computer or a double agent that tipped off North Korea that the U.S. Navy’s biggest and baddest aircraft carrier was steaming toward the peninsula -- it was a perfectly innocent bunch of shutterbugs.

When Pyongyang’s state-run media agency mentioned the ship’s itinerary in a news release, a day before it was first reported in the South Korean media, alarm bells went off, according to the South Korean newspaper The Hankyoreh U.S. and South Korean military officials initially feared a phone tap, intelligence leak or hacked email account might be to blame, according to South Korean media reports.

But it turned out that on Saturday night, a Seoul-based camera association known as the “O” Club had told its members that an aircraft carrier would berth in Busan on May 11, and that people were needed to drive American sailors around, a South Korea Ministry of National Defense said.

“… looking for two Busanites who can drive and speak basic English,” read the message, posted on a photography website. “A U.S. naval aircraft carrier is coming on the 11th and leaving on the 13th, and you would just need to transport the U.S. sailors. Pay is 110,000 won ($101) a day. Two people wanted. Send a message if you’re interested.”

Another post offered suggestions on where to get good pictures of the massive ship. Someone in North Korea saw the ad and did some low-risk intelligence gathering.

Although neither post named the ship, officials believe North Korea were able to put together the details using other information already made public, including a post on the U.S. Navy’s website last week that said the nuclear-powered Nimitz had entered the jurisdiction of the 7th Fleet, a South Korean Ministry of Defense official said Wednesday.

The U.S. and South Korea are staging anti-submarine exercises this week, and the Nimitz will participate in another joint naval exercise next week. Although the exercises come as tensions are rising between North and South Korea, officials publicly sought to downplay the Nimitz’s appearance.

“We are not trying to deliver any message to North Korea with this exercise,” a spokesman for the South Korea Joint Chiefs of Staff said, referring to this week's anti-submarine drills. “This exercise is for improving the U.S.-South Korean war-fighting power.”

North Korea has vowed immediate countermeasures if even one shell fired during the joint U.S.-South Korea exercises lands in North waters.

The U.S. and South Korea are trying to push “the present state of war to an actual war,” according to a statement posted on the North’s government-run Korean Central News Agency website.