Kurdish War - The Bumpy Road to Peace

The Turkish government recently noted that the national fertility rate is a near-stable 2.08 off-spring per woman (2.1 children per woman is considered to be the population replacement rate.)  The replacement rate in the pre-dominantly ethnic Kurd (and rural) southeast, however, is much higher –almost four children per woman.  In other words, Turkish Kurds in southeastern Turkey are having more children per family than any other major ethnic group or region in the country. Over the long term this means there will be more ethnic Kurd voters in Turkey –or, should the peace process collapse, more Kurd rebels. The driving reasons for the peace process between the government and the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) are (1) the grinding war is expensive and (2) the Kurds and the Turks are both tired of fighting a no-win war. The PKK’s senior commander, Abdullah “Apo” Ocalan may have seen the Arab Spring revolutions and the mess in Syria as an optimal moment to strike a bargain. The Kurd fertility rate, however, is not a totally irrelevant factor. (Austin Bay)

June 28, 2013: Turkey acknowledged that the PKK withdrawal is going slower than expected. The government now believes the withdrawal will be completed in mid-autumn.  The withdrawal began in early May 2013.

 

June 27, 2013:  Turkish police and pro-PKK protestors once again battled in the city of Cizre (Sirnak province).  A senior Turkish police commander was injured when a protestor struck him with a home-made fire bomb. Police and demonstrators have clashed in Cizre several times this month. The latest clashes are more serious. The Turkish government said that PKK militants in the city have organized their own police unit (a public order unit). The unit is manned by members of the Movement of Patriotic and Revolutionary Youth (also called the Patriotic Revolutionist Youth Movement, YDG-H). The YDG-H has allegedly set up traffic control checkpoints in Cizre.  A member of the YDG-H called on everyone who is for Kurdish rights in Turkey should join what he called the Gezi Park resistance movement. This clearly an attempt by PKK extremists to join their issue with the nation-wide demonstrations against prime minister Erdogan. The demonstrations began in late May when citizens of Istanbul objected to the government decision to cut down trees in Gezi Park (on Taksim Square, in Istanbul) as part of an urban renewal project.

 

Turkish security officials reported that a group of armed attackers raided a chromium mine in Tunceli province. The attackers did not injure anyone but they burned six vehicles and several buildings.  The attackers took an unknown number of hostages.  The regional Gendarme Command is pursuing the attackers. Security officers have yet to determine if the raiders are members of the PKK. Armed raiders, using similar tactics (property destruction), also attacked a village in Tunceli province earlier in the day.

 

Syrian rebel accused Syrian Kurd Democratic Union Party (PYD) gunmen of killing three people and wounding several more in the town of Amuda (Syria’s Hasakeh district).  The PYD fighters fired on demonstrators who were demanding that the PYD free several anti-Assad regime activists that the PYD militia had arrested. Syrian rebel groups accused the PYD of collaborating with the Assad dictatorship.

 

Provincial officials in Turkey’s Bitlis province reported that two construction engineers the PKK kidnapped on June 21 have been released. The two men were freed near the town of Caglayan.

The Iraqi government continues to oppose the PKK withdrawal from Turkey into Iraq and will permit Iraqi citizens to withdraw to Iraqi territory but regards the withdrawal of non-Iraqi PKK fighters as an infringement of Iraqi sovereignty. 

 

The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has decided to let the Kurdistan Democratic Solution Party (PCDK) participate in future elections. The PCDK is basically the PKK’s actor in Iraqi politics. The PCDK has been banned in Iraq since 2006. Iraqi Kurdistan’s two major parties, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK),  tend to regard the PCDK as either a nuisance (it does not have very many supporters) or a source of unnecessary political trouble with Turkey. However, the KRG decided to let the PCDK participate since the Turkish government is engaged in a peace process with the PKK.

 

June 26, 2013: Turkey’s prime minister Erdogan said that only 15 percent of the PKK fighters inside Turkey have withdrawn to Iraq.  Since there were an estimated 2,000 PKK fighters in Turkey before the withdrawal began, this means around 1,700 fighters are still in Turkish territory. Erdogan made the figure public at a meeting of the Wise People Commission (WPC), which is tasked with working out a detailed peace agreement between the government and the PKK.

 

An Iraqi Kurdish political coalition won the most seats in an election in Iraq’s Nineveh province.  The Taakhi and Taayish List won 11 of 39 seats in the provincial legislature. The Sunni Arab Mutahidoon List won eight seats. Nineveh is a predominantly Sunni Arab region of Iraq, though many ethnic Kurds live in the province.

June 25, 2013: Abdullah Ocalan released a statement which said the peace process has entered a second phase.  He implied that the process is in a political phase where participation in democratic politics is essential.  In an interview conducted in Iraq (presumably earlier this month) but released on June 25, PKK field commander Murat Karayilan stated that when the peace process is completed PKK commander Abdullah Ocalan will be released from prison. Karayilan said that Ocalan’s release will occur when the third phase of the peace process is completed.

 

June 24, 2013: The Turkish military released casualty figures for the Kurdish War. Since 1984 6,205 servicemen have died fighting PKK rebels. The heaviest casualties have occurred in five provinces: Hakkari, Van, Sirnak, Bingol and Elazig.

 

June 22, 2013: Senior Turkish officials claim that political extremists in the Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) and members of PKK are trying to use the Taksim Square/Gezi Park protests occurring in Turkey to pressure the government into making concessions regarding the peace process. It’s been noted that many of the demonstrators in Istanbul and Ankara say they distrust the PKK and are against making peace with PKK terrorists. 

 

June 21, 2013: On June 20 a PKK rebel group in Hakkari province (southeastern Turkey) fired on a military helicopter that was carrying a Gendarme Security Corps commander, a division commander and senior members of their staffs. Military investigators indicated that the helicopter, identified as a command-control helicopter, was definitely targeted. The helicopter was fired four times while passing through the Ikiyaka Mountains near the town of Yuksekova (Hakari province). The helicopter suffered structural damage but landed safely and no one was hurt in the incident.

 

June 16, 2013: Turkey announced that the PKK withdrawal is going well, even though the peace process is proceeding without a written peace agreement.  The Turkish government and the PKK leadership are proceeding on the basis of trust. The Turkish government’s decision to let Turkish Kurds have Kurdish language education in schools was an important first step in ending the insurgency. Turkish Kurds now have Kurdish radio and television programming.

 

Senior PKK commander Abdullah Ocalan’s brother said that Ocalan had told him on June 12 that the peace process was stagnating and that could produce a dangerous situation. Ocalan encouraged the Turkish government to take the initiative and speed up the peace process

 

June 10, 2013: Iraqi Kurds are breathing a sigh of relief that the June 3 shooting incident did not escalate.  Turkish security personnel in Turkey had exchanged fire with PKK fighters near the Iraq border. When it became clear in late April that the PKK might actually withdraw from Turkey, many Iraqi Kurds living in northern Iraq said that they were worried that an inevitable glitch would lead to a major battle on the Iraq-Turkey border. Then Turkey might launch another incursion. So far that has not occurred, though the June 3 incident is a warning that the peace process remains fragile.

 

June 8, 2013: The Iraqi government announced that they are working to reach a workable oil production and revenue agreement. The government said that it is talking with the Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). The Iraqi government is very aware that for a brief time in 1946, Kurdish separatists formed their own statelet in Iran, the Mahabad Republic.  

 

June 7, 2013: Turkish police fought with demonstrators in the city of Cizre (Sirnak province). The protests began after a public funeral for a PKK fighter. Police claimed the demonstrators threw fire bombs. Protestors accused the police of over-reaction. The police fired tear gas and used water cannon.  

 

June 4, 2013: Senior leaders in the Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) have given the Iraqi central government in Baghdad a not-too-subtle warning. The KRG has told Baghdad that it may consider developing "new form of relations" with the rest of Iraq if the central government cannot Iraq’s various land disputes and reach a new oil production and revenue distribution agreement.

 

June 3, 2013: Turkish military helicopters fired back at PKK rebels who fired at a Turkish border security post.  The Turkish Army reported that PKK fighters fired at a post near the city of Sirnak (southeastern Turkey).  The fire wounded one Turkish Army soldier. Apparently the PKK fighters were inside Turkey but very near the Iraq-Turkey border. This was the first reported armed clash between the PKK and Turkish security forces since the peace process began in late March.

 

May 29, 2013: From January through April 2013, arrests, detentions and incidents involving Kurdish separatists have declined to the lowest level in three decades.

 

May 21, 2013: The U.S. government noted that it has been three months since March 21, 2013, when imprisoned PKK senior commander Abdullah “Apo” Ocalan publicly asked his supporters to end the war, put down their weapons and with to PKK bases in northern Iraq. 

Ankara: Assad leaves Turkish border to Kurds

Ankara has furiously accused Syria’s embattled government of turning over the area along their mutual border to affiliates of the PKK

This photo grabbed from a video footage shows thousands of Kurds, who completed their ‘training’ in northern Iraq, marching to northern Syria, according to Doğan news agency. Kurdish groups in Syria have mobilized to get the best position in the new era.

The Syrian administration has deliberately left the three districts on the Turkish border in northern Syria to the control of the Democratic Union of Kurdistan (PYD), known as an affiliate of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), reliable Turkish sources have claimed. Ankara is concerned that the potential expansion of the Syrian Kurdish-controlled area in northern Syria could establish another front for the PKK in its attacks against Turkey.

“We are not concerned about the creation of a new Kurdish state,” said Deputy Prime Minister Beşir Atalay, speaking to reporters after a meeting on the refugee camps for Syrians. Dismissing reports that the control of the entire northern area has passed to Kurdish groups, Atalay said “This is not true. Our foreign minister informed us about it. … There was a minor flag issue in a little town,” he stated, referring to the raising of the PKK’s flag in a small town just across the Turkish border last week.

“Damascus left the region to the PYD both to deploy its troops in the center of the country for its clashes with the Free Syrian Army and to intimidate Turkey,” the sources told the Hürriyet Daily News.

“We are closely following developments, but they only control three districts. The situation should not be presented as if they control all of northern Syria.”

With the escalation of clashes in Syria and the momentum given to the rebel Free Syrian Army (FSA), Kurdish groups in Syria have also begun mobilizing to get the best position in the likely post-al-Assad period. In a meeting with Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government leader Masoud Barzani, 16 different Kurdish groups have agreed to stand together as part of the Syrian Kurdish National Council.

However, the PYD has gained the control of three towns, including Kobane and Efrin in Aleppo and Amude in the city of al-Hasakah, on the Turkish border. There are also reports that the PYD and Syrian forces were in talks for Qamishli in northern Syria.

“Of course, we will closely monitor whether the PYD acts with other Kurdish groups or not,” the sources said, without giving further details. Ankara fears that the deepening instability in Syria could push Syrian Kurds to declare an autonomous region in northern Syria on the Turkish border.

As part of the Turkish military’s measures taken on the Syrian border, new troops have been transferred to the frontier from Nusaybin, a district of Şanlıurfa, in 200 civilian vehicles, Doğan news agency reported yesterday. The military had already deployed some surface-to-air missiles on the border after Turkey changed its rules of engagement after its jet was downed by Syria on June 22.

Barzani effect

In related news, thousands of Syrian Kurdish soldiers trained by Barzani’s forces in northern Iraq crossed the Syrian border yesterday, a day after the Iraqi Kurdish leader confirmed for the first time the presence of a training camp in the Kurdish region of Iraq, in an interview with Al-Jazeera.

“A good number of the young Kurds who fled have been trained. We do not want to interfere directly in the situation, but they have been trained,” he said. These soldiers were intended to be deployed in northern Syria to fill any “security vacuum” when the Syrian security forces retreat, he added.

Barzani said the fighting force, made up largely of Syrian Kurds who deserted the army and made their way across the border, would take its orders from a new high committee, formed two weeks ago when two major Kurdish opposition groups put aside their differences.

SNC reassures Ankara

Ankara’s concerns about the Kurdish mobilization were addressed during the July 23 meeting between Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu and Abdulbasid Seyda, head of the Syrian National Council (SNC).

Seyda, himself a Kurd, said the Kurdish groups were on the side of the revolution. “The Syrian regime has handed over the region to the PKK or the PYD. The Kurdish people are not on the side of these two groups, but on the side of the revolution,” he said in a statement after his talks with Davutoğlu. After being told that the PKK had raised its flag in the cities it controls, Seyda said that no flag other than that of the SNC was permitted to be raised. He said the Kurds were a natural part of the Syrian people and that the Kurdish problem could only be solved within the territorial integrity of their country.

Victory should not turn into chaos

Turkey’s concerns with regard to Syria are not limited to the Kurds. As the end of al-Assad is looming, it is time to consider plans for a healthy political transition in Syria, officials said. “The victory of the Syrian people should not turn into chaos. We have to think over two processes from now on. The first one is the transition period immediately after the toppling of the regime, which will be followed by the political transition period,” they said.

The victory of the opponents of the regime should not pave the way for future disagreements between different ethnic and religious groups, and the political transition process should be designed in such as way as to not to revive old sectarian disputes. Instead, the transition should embrace all groups and should give political ground to each and every group to form their own political party and run in the elections, the Turkish officials said.

Turkey carefully watches Kurdish movement on border

Video grab shows Kurdish soldiers marching toward the Syrian border.

A video published by Doğan News Agency (DHA) today reportedly showed thousands of Kurdish soldiers marching toward the Syrian border in northern Iraq as Turkey deployed troops along to its own border with its war-torn neighbor.

A cell phone video recording published today showed alleged Kurdish soldiers walking in two rows on the sides of a road toward the border between northern Iraq and Syria today. The soldiers, apparently unarmed, were flanked by armed guards who held high positions along the road.

Some soldiers reportedly yelled "we march to Qamishli, we are on our way to take Qamishli.”

The leader of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in northern Iraq, Masoud Barzani, confirmed that they had been training young Kurdish men who had deserted the Syrian army and had fled to northern Iraq.

The "fighting force" has not yet crossed into Syria, Barzani said. "They are still here. They can only go if the high council allows them. If not, they will wait for things to settle down. But they will eventually go back to Syria, because that is where they are from," he said.

Barzani said Kurdish men were being trained to fill a possible security vacuum in "Western Kurdistan" in the event the Syrian army withdraws from there, according to DHA.

Turkey moving troops to border

The Turkish Armed Forces have shipped a large number of soldiers to its border with Syria today. Around 200 civilian minibuses transported soldiers from garrisons in the Cizre district of the southeastern province of Şırnak to the Nusaybin district in Mardin province – roughly 100 kilometers to the west along the Syrian border.

Turkish gunships are making frequent patrol and reconnaissance flights along the Syrian border, according to reports.

Nusaybin is situated directly across from Qamishli.

Thousands of Kurdish Soldiers March to Syria - VIDEO