The Turkish government recently
noted that the national fertility rate is a near-stable 2.08 off-spring
per woman (2.1 children per woman is considered to be the population
replacement rate.) The replacement rate in the pre-dominantly ethnic
Kurd (and rural) southeast, however, is much higher –almost four
children per woman. In other words, Turkish Kurds in southeastern
Turkey are having more children per family than any other major ethnic
group or region in the country. Over the long term this means there will
be more ethnic Kurd voters in Turkey –or, should the peace process
collapse, more Kurd rebels. The driving reasons for the peace process
between the government and the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) are (1) the
grinding war is expensive and (2) the Kurds and the Turks are both
tired of fighting a no-win war. The PKK’s senior commander, Abdullah
“Apo” Ocalan may have seen the Arab Spring revolutions and the mess in
Syria as an optimal moment to strike a bargain. The Kurd fertility rate,
however, is not a totally irrelevant factor. (Austin Bay)
June 28, 2013: Turkey acknowledged that the PKK withdrawal is
going slower than expected. The government now believes the withdrawal
will be completed in mid-autumn. The withdrawal began in early May
2013.
June 27, 2013: Turkish police and pro-PKK protestors once
again battled in the city of Cizre (Sirnak province). A senior Turkish
police commander was injured when a protestor struck him with a
home-made fire bomb. Police and demonstrators have clashed in Cizre
several times this month. The latest clashes are more serious. The
Turkish government said that PKK militants in the city have organized
their own police unit (a public order unit). The unit is manned by
members of the Movement of Patriotic and Revolutionary Youth (also
called the Patriotic Revolutionist Youth Movement, YDG-H). The YDG-H has
allegedly set up traffic control checkpoints in Cizre. A member of the
YDG-H called on everyone who is for Kurdish rights in Turkey should
join what he called the Gezi Park resistance movement. This clearly an
attempt by PKK extremists to join their issue with the nation-wide
demonstrations against prime minister Erdogan. The demonstrations began
in late May when citizens of Istanbul objected to the government
decision to cut down trees in Gezi Park (on Taksim Square, in Istanbul)
as part of an urban renewal project.
Turkish security officials reported that a group of armed
attackers raided a chromium mine in Tunceli province. The attackers did
not injure anyone but they burned six vehicles and several buildings.
The attackers took an unknown number of hostages. The regional Gendarme
Command is pursuing the attackers. Security officers have yet to
determine if the raiders are members of the PKK. Armed raiders, using
similar tactics (property destruction), also attacked a village in
Tunceli province earlier in the day.
Syrian rebel accused Syrian Kurd Democratic Union Party (PYD)
gunmen of killing three people and wounding several more in the town of
Amuda (Syria’s Hasakeh district). The PYD fighters fired on
demonstrators who were demanding that the PYD free several anti-Assad
regime activists that the PYD militia had arrested. Syrian rebel groups
accused the PYD of collaborating with the Assad dictatorship.
Provincial officials in Turkey’s Bitlis province reported that
two construction engineers the PKK kidnapped on June 21 have been
released. The two men were freed near the town of Caglayan.
The Iraqi government continues to oppose the PKK withdrawal
from Turkey into Iraq and will permit Iraqi citizens to withdraw to
Iraqi territory but regards the withdrawal of non-Iraqi PKK fighters as
an infringement of Iraqi sovereignty.
The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has decided to let the
Kurdistan Democratic Solution Party (PCDK) participate in future
elections. The PCDK is basically the PKK’s actor in Iraqi politics. The
PCDK has been banned in Iraq since 2006. Iraqi Kurdistan’s two major
parties, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and Patriotic Union of
Kurdistan (PUK), tend to regard the PCDK as either a nuisance (it does
not have very many supporters) or a source of unnecessary political
trouble with Turkey. However, the KRG decided to let the PCDK
participate since the Turkish government is engaged in a peace process
with the PKK.
June 26, 2013: Turkey’s prime minister Erdogan said that only
15 percent of the PKK fighters inside Turkey have withdrawn to Iraq.
Since there were an estimated 2,000 PKK fighters in Turkey before the
withdrawal began, this means around 1,700 fighters are still in Turkish
territory. Erdogan made the figure public at a meeting of the Wise
People Commission (WPC), which is tasked with working out a detailed
peace agreement between the government and the PKK.
An Iraqi Kurdish political coalition won the most seats in an
election in Iraq’s Nineveh province. The Taakhi and Taayish List won 11
of 39 seats in the provincial legislature. The Sunni Arab Mutahidoon
List won eight seats. Nineveh is a predominantly Sunni Arab region of
Iraq, though many ethnic Kurds live in the province.
June 25, 2013: Abdullah Ocalan released a statement which said
the peace process has entered a second phase. He implied that the
process is in a political phase where participation in democratic
politics is essential. In an interview conducted in Iraq (presumably
earlier this month) but released on June 25, PKK field commander Murat
Karayilan stated that when the peace process is completed PKK commander
Abdullah Ocalan will be released from prison. Karayilan said that
Ocalan’s release will occur when the third phase of the peace process is
completed.
June 24, 2013: The Turkish military released casualty figures
for the Kurdish War. Since 1984 6,205 servicemen have died fighting PKK
rebels. The heaviest casualties have occurred in five provinces:
Hakkari, Van, Sirnak, Bingol and Elazig.
June 22, 2013: Senior Turkish officials claim that political
extremists in the Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) and members of
PKK are trying to use the Taksim Square/Gezi Park protests occurring in
Turkey to pressure the government into making concessions regarding the
peace process. It’s been noted that many of the demonstrators in
Istanbul and Ankara say they distrust the PKK and are against making
peace with PKK terrorists.
June 21, 2013: On June 20 a PKK rebel group in Hakkari
province (southeastern Turkey) fired on a military helicopter that was
carrying a Gendarme Security Corps commander, a division commander and
senior members of their staffs. Military investigators indicated that
the helicopter, identified as a command-control helicopter, was
definitely targeted. The helicopter was fired four times while passing
through the Ikiyaka Mountains near the town of Yuksekova (Hakari
province). The helicopter suffered structural damage but landed safely
and no one was hurt in the incident.
June 16, 2013: Turkey announced that the PKK withdrawal is
going well, even though the peace process is proceeding without a
written peace agreement. The Turkish government and the PKK leadership
are proceeding on the basis of trust. The Turkish government’s decision
to let Turkish Kurds have Kurdish language education in schools was an
important first step in ending the insurgency. Turkish Kurds now have
Kurdish radio and television programming.
Senior PKK commander Abdullah Ocalan’s brother said that
Ocalan had told him on June 12 that the peace process was stagnating and
that could produce a dangerous situation. Ocalan encouraged the Turkish
government to take the initiative and speed up the peace process
June 10, 2013: Iraqi Kurds are breathing a sigh of relief that
the June 3 shooting incident did not escalate. Turkish security
personnel in Turkey had exchanged fire with PKK fighters near the Iraq
border. When it became clear in late April that the PKK might actually
withdraw from Turkey, many Iraqi Kurds living in northern Iraq said that
they were worried that an inevitable glitch would lead to a major
battle on the Iraq-Turkey border. Then Turkey might launch another
incursion. So far that has not occurred, though the June 3 incident is a
warning that the peace process remains fragile.
June 8, 2013: The Iraqi government announced that they are
working to reach a workable oil production and revenue agreement. The
government said that it is talking with the Iraqi Kurdistan Regional
Government (KRG). The Iraqi government is very aware that for a brief
time in 1946, Kurdish separatists formed their own statelet in Iran, the
Mahabad Republic.
June 7, 2013: Turkish police fought with demonstrators in the
city of Cizre (Sirnak province). The protests began after a public
funeral for a PKK fighter. Police claimed the demonstrators threw fire
bombs. Protestors accused the police of over-reaction. The police fired
tear gas and used water cannon.
June 4, 2013: Senior leaders in the Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional
Government (KRG) have given the Iraqi central government in Baghdad a
not-too-subtle warning. The KRG has told Baghdad that it may consider
developing "new form of relations" with the rest of Iraq if the central
government cannot Iraq’s various land disputes and reach a new oil
production and revenue distribution agreement.
June 3, 2013: Turkish military helicopters fired back at PKK
rebels who fired at a Turkish border security post. The Turkish Army
reported that PKK fighters fired at a post near the city of Sirnak
(southeastern Turkey). The fire wounded one Turkish Army soldier.
Apparently the PKK fighters were inside Turkey but very near the
Iraq-Turkey border. This was the first reported armed clash between the
PKK and Turkish security forces since the peace process began in late
March.
May 29, 2013: From January through April 2013, arrests,
detentions and incidents involving Kurdish separatists have declined to
the lowest level in three decades.
May 21, 2013: The U.S. government noted that it has been three
months since March 21, 2013, when imprisoned PKK senior commander
Abdullah “Apo” Ocalan publicly asked his supporters to end the war, put
down their weapons and with to PKK bases in northern Iraq.
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