Ukraine Army Claims That Killed 500 Militia, Destroyed 40 Armored Vehicles

The Ukrainian military said Saturday it had allegedly destroyed up to 40 enemy armored vehicles and 500 independence supporters near Luhansk in the country’s east, according to its Interior Ministry.

 

Four months of Kiev’s “anti-terrorist” operation (ATO) in the region have killed an estimated 2,000 people and wounded more than 5,000, UN reports say. Hundreds of thousands have been internally displaced, with many most refugees fleeing across the border to Russia.

 

“A high-precision artillery strike of ATO forces destroyed up to 40 armored vehicles and three surface-to-air missile systems Strela 10,” the statement cited Ukrainian interior minister's adviser Zorian Shkiriak as saying.

 

The ministry said clashes had broken out between pro-Kiev forces and militia troops outside Rovenky, a city of some 48,000 located 60 kilometers (more than 37 miles) from the regional capital Luhansk.

 

The operation has been under way since mid-April following Crimea’s secession from Ukraine. Hundreds have been killed in and around Luhansk as a result of the Ukrainian Army’s indiscriminate shelling, with mortar rounds falling all across the city.

 

Luhansk has been without running water, electricity and phone communications for 20 days as government troops continue to besiege it.

 

On Friday, a humanitarian aid convoy from Russia rolled into eastern Ukraine after being checked by Ukrainian customs officials. A total of 280 trucks delivered grain, baby food, water, medicine and generators to Ukraine’s easternmost region, including its key city Luhansk.

Ukrainian statehood in the face of Russian aggression

Analyses

 

The Ukrainian state is facing the most difficult period since it became independent almost exactly 23 years ago. In the east of the country a war is ongoing between government forces and Russian fighters, armed and largely sent by Russia. The economic situation in Ukraine is deteriorating rapidly, and the outlook is pessimistic. In mid-June, Gazprom stopped gas supplies, and it is unlikely that the parties will reach an agreement in the coming months. Although the general public has been mobilised by the external aggression, as time goes on and the economic performance worsens, Ukrainian public feelings will inevitably deteriorate. At the same time, Ukraine is entering a campaign for early elections to parliament, which will revive the hitherto muted internal political conflict; and radical parties may win strong representation in the new Verkhovna Rada.

 

Despite such enormous challenges, and Russia’s obvious efforts to bring the Ukrainian state to political, economic and humanitarian disaster, Kyiv is unlikely to agree to Russia’s demands (mainly broad autonomy for the east of Ukraine, and the abandonment of plans for European integration), which would be tantamount to complete capitulation to Moscow. After the revolution on the Maidan and the upheaval which the loss of Crimea meant, Ukraine finds itself in an accelerated process of building a new state identity. The Ukrainian authorities are under strong social pressure; they realise that Ukraine’s survival as a sovereign state, and what its constitution and boundaries will be, depend on how they cope with the conflict with Russia and other challenges. So, this struggle is ultimately about the preservation of Ukrainian statehood as such.

 

Russian military aggression …

 

In recent weeks, the armed conflict in the east of Ukraine which started in April took on the form of actual Russian aggression, which remains a determining factor in Ukraine’s current state of crisis, while at the same time it has temporarily suspended other political and economic problems. Russian weapons and people, many of whom are probably professional soldiers, are flowing into the Donbas at an unprecedented rate. Russia’s military activity has intensified due to the success of the Ukrainian forces, including their encirclement of Donetsk and Lugansk (although this is still incomplete). Kyiv wants to complete the operation before the parliamentary elections (which will most likely be held in October). However, all the indications are that this will not be possible, and Russia will continue to wage war.

 

In addition to the military operations, the Ukrainian authorities are facing a growing problem of refugees from the Donbas in other districts of the country (estimated at a minimum of 200,000 persons) and a growing humanitarian disaster in the region. In the big cities, supplies of water and electricity are regularly interrupted, and there are problems with supplying stores. More and more large companies have wholly or partly suspended production, which exacerbates the difficult economic situation for the local population. As a result of the fighting, the destruction of civilian infrastructure is increasing, and according to government calculations, reconstruction will cost at least $8 billion.

 

Kyiv is also facing a difficulty in the growing aversion of some Donbas residents towards the Ukrainian state, based on the conviction that the authorities are responsible for the current situation in the region, as well as the increasing losses among the civilian population. In large part this is due to the fact that the main sources of information for the majority of the population in east Ukraine are the Russian media. At the same time, the most active part of the community has left the Donbas. This all means that re-integrating the region with the rest of the country and the subsequent process of reconciliation will be long and difficult. Moreover, if the parliamentary elections do not allow political representation for Donbas to emerge, integrating the region with the rest of the country will become even more complicated.

 

... and economic assault

 

In addition to its military actions, Moscow has in recent months launched economic pressure on Ukraine, primarily in the form of further sanctions on Ukrainian production. Russia has traditionally been the most important market for Ukraine (23.8% of Ukrainian exports in 2013), and finding alternative markets to Russia will be a big challenge. In the first half of this year, Ukraine’s exports to Russia fell by 23.3%, and because of the embargo they will fall at an even faster pace over the coming months. Another problem is the interruption of supplies of Russian gas, which results from a lack of agreement on the price. In fact, Kyiv is determined to hold a full review of its current gas cooperation with Russia, which at present is very unfavourable for Ukraine. Ukraine’s current gas reserves will be exhausted within a few months. Russian sanctions are contributing to the further deterioration of Ukraine’s already very difficult economic situation, which has been in crisis for over two years. According to moderate estimates, GDP will fall by at least 7% this year, but a much greater decline is actually more likely.

 

The country’s deepening economic problems, rising unemployment, and the impoverishment of society, in conjunction with the expectation that the gas will run out in the autumn, will raise levels of social discontent. Although the Russian aggression has mobilised the majority of the population to rally around the government led by President Poroshenko, maintaining a similar degree of mobilisation in the long run will be difficult.

 

The risk of domestic political destabilisation

 

The parliamentary elections expected in October will most likely bring to power a coalition of parties which will continue Ukraine’s current harsh political approach to Russia. This is due to an observed reduction in support for the major political parties, and the transfer of sympathy for non-parliamentary parties who employ radical and anti-Russian rhetoric (such as the Oleh Lashko Party and the Hromadska Pozytsiya party led by Anatoly Hrytsenko). In addition, all the indications are that pro-Russian groups will only gain minor political representation in the next Verkhovna Rada. It is difficult to predict the balance of power in the new parliament, but there is a potential risk of political destabilisation in the post-election period.

 

President Poroshenko, who is currently still the strongest power centre in Ukraine, and the government which is formed after the election, will also have to face the challenge posed by the increased influence in the country of some oligarchic groups, mainly the group around Ihor Kolomoyski, the governor of the Dnipropetrovsk region. The current alliance between him and Kyiv is merely tactical, and the reforms announced by the government strike directly at the Kolomoyski group’s critical interests, which threatens potential conflict. The future role and importance of the Ukrainian oligarchic system, which in recent years has monopolised the country’s economy and was an unavoidable factor in politics, is one of the key ‘frozen’ problems which the Ukrainian state will have to confront.

 

 

Prospects: Kyiv will not capitulate

 

The distribution of political forces and the enduring public pressure on the authorities since the Maidan mean that – despite the increasingly difficult situation in the Donbas and the accumulation of many political and economic problems – Kyiv will not agree to any of the concessions expected by Moscow. This was confirmed by the negotiations between the foreign ministers of Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France held in Berlin on 17 August. Kyiv might be willing to reach some form of compromise with Moscow, although this would be risky because of the possibility of an explosion of public discontent; but any such agreement would have to be linked to a change in Russian policy. Russia’s actions, however, indicate that it is only interested in resolving the conflict on its own terms, which would be tantamount to a complete surrender by Kyiv.

 

In connection with Ukraine’s rejection of Russian demands, Moscow intends to continue its current policy of ‘demolishing’ the Ukrainian state. Kyiv seems to be aware that Russia is trying to create a situation where the costs of not capitulating to Moscow will be higher than the costs of accepting the Russian conditions. In this variant, this means that the Ukrainian-Russian conflict in its various manifestations (the de facto state of war in eastern Ukraine, the trade war, and the gas war) will last a long time. Regardless of the final outcome, the price for Ukraine will be very high, because it will involve a worsening humanitarian situation in eastern Ukraine; a sharp decline in GDP; the inhibition of necessary reforms and the modernisation of the country; an increase in labour migration; and difficulties with the future re-integration of the Donbas. On the other hand, as a consequence of the Maidan, and in the face of ongoing Russian aggression, a new Ukrainian political nation and social potential is being created, which in the future may bring about changes in the functioning of the Ukrainian state of a profound nature, although they are difficult to predict today.

New UK Frigate Proposals Coming Together

BAE Systems is finishing proposals to build a new generation of frigates for the Royal Navy and has begun delivering details of the bid to the British Defence Ministry ahead of a decision expected by the end of the year, company officials said.

 

The Royal Navy is looking to acquire 13 of the Type 26 frigates for a total of roughly £4 billion (US $6.6 billion), with the first of the warships expected to be delivered starting late 2021 to provide what will eventually become the backbone of the fleet out to around 2060.

The warships will replace the Royal Navy’s aging Type 23 fleet.

 

“Initial documents to support the business case for Type 26 have been submitted. The process is underway but not finalized yet. We expect that to be complete by the end of the summer,” a BAE spokeswoman said.

BAE is concluding a four-year, £150 million assessment phase on the Type 26 this year and hopes to get the development and build phase approved in order to start cutting metal in 2016.

 

The 6,000-ton Type 26 is primarily intended for anti-submarine warfare, but the design gives the Royal Navy the versatility that is essential given its small number of surface combatants — 13 Type 23 frigates and six Type 45 destroyers.

 

“We are planning for a class of 13 ships, but this will be confirmed at the main investment decision, which is expected towards the end of 2014,” an MoD spokeswoman said.

 

BAE’s proposals are based on a 13-ship fleet, but Jeff Searle, the company’s program director, told reporters on June 3 that he “expected a phased commitment” by the MoD.

 

During a parliamentary debate in December, defense procurement minister Philip Dunne said there would be an initial order for eight Type 26s, but the MoD spokeswoman last week would not comment on whether that remained the case.

 

Dunne told Defense News in a recent interview that getting the Type 26 build program under contract was one of his priorities ahead of the general election in May 2015.

That’s a view BAE would echo, industry executives said.

 

The Type 26 deal is one of several planned major defense equipment investments that the government is attempting to get approved ahead of the election, a strategic defense review and potentially further defense spending reductions all threatening to impact the sector next year.

 

More immediately, though, is the question of exactly what effect, if any, an upcoming Scottish independence referendum vote might have on naval construction programs here.

 

Opinion polls are showing a majority in favor of remaining part of the UK, but a “yes” vote on Sept. 18 can’t be ruled out.

 

Independence would likely seriously impact the timing of approval and number of hulls for a Type 26 program, which is slated to be built at BAE’s surface warship yards in Glasgow, Scotland.

 

The British government has consistently said Royal Navy warships have to be built in the UK.

 

That point was reiterated Aug. 12 when Britain’s new Defence Secretary Micheal Fallon announced that a £348 million deal with BAE for three ocean-going patrol vessels would continue in Scotland only if voters reject independence.

 

“UK warships are only built in UK shipyards,” Fallon said in a statement.

 

The government options to build surface warships elsewhere appear somewhat limited. BAE is in the throes of closing its other UK surface warship yard at Portsmouth, southern England, as part of a major downsizing in build capacity.

 

That leaves BAE’s nuclear submarine building facility at Barrow-in-Furniss and a small yard run by Babcock International as the only two operations working on naval orders south of the border.

 

Babcock’s Appledore yard in southwest England is building the second of two 90-meter offshore patrol vessels ordered by the Irish Naval Service.

 

BAE is proposing updating its Scottish shipbuilding capabilities, but that also depends on the outcome of the referendum.

 

The favored option is a £200 million investment in the Scotstoun yard on the Clyde and closure of the nearby Govan facility, but a dual-yard approach is also on the table.

 

The BAE spokeswoman said a decision on the investment proposal is expected toward the end of the year, with the update work beginning next year.

 

The first of the new 90-meter patrol vessels will be delivered to the Royal Navy in 2017, with all three warships handed over by the end of 2018.

 

The warships are destined to undertake operations in home waters as well as globally in roles conducted by frigates and other larger vessels such as anti-piracy, counterterrorism and anti-smuggling.

 

The intent to purchase the warships was announced by the British government in November.

 

In part, the patrol vessels are being constructed to fill the gap in work between completion of two aircraft carriers now being built for the Royal Navy and the start of the Type 26 program.

 

Under an earlier business agreement with BAE, the government would have had to pay for shipyard workers to effectively sit around do

ing nothing until the Type 26 program gathered construction momentum later in the decade.

 

The future of the three relatively new River-class offshore patrol vessels that the new patrol warships will replace will be decided by next year’s strategic defense and security review.

 

Larger than the River-class vessels deployed by the Royal Navy for fisheries protection and other duties in home waters, the new warships will be capable of landing AgustaWestland’s Merlin helicopters and have more room for embarking personnel.

 

BAE said the new warships, adapted from a design already in service with the Brazilian and Thai navies, will have a range of 5,500 nautical miles, be globally deployable and capable of ocean patrol.

 

Indonesians Boost CN235 Sales after Pact with Airbus D&S

PT Dirgantara Indonesia (PTDI) has stepped up its marketing of maritime versions of the CN235 and is completing assembly of its first C295. The moves result from the collaboration agreement that PTDI signed with Airbus Defense & Space in 2011. That deal also transferred production of the smaller C212 transport to PTDI’s facility in Bandung.

 

Arie Wibotwo, PTDI’s vice president of marketing, told AIN that PTDI is bidding for several maritime patrol requirements in the region. “We have been selected by the Philippines government to supply two CN235 ASWs. A contract is expected to be signed this summer, with delivery taking place 26 months afterwards,” he said. Working with PTDI as a mission systems supplier will be Raytheon Systems, marking the first time a U.S. company has partnered with the Indonesians.

 

Several other CN 235 MPA/ASW proposals are on the table “but the mission systems will be flexible, completely the choice of the customer,” Arie added. “Malaysia prefers Thales, Vietnam wants the Airbus D&S Fully Integrated Tactical Systems (Fits) or a Swedish SSC system, while Thailand and Brunei seem fairly relaxed over the systems they want.” This means that PTDI could find itself working with several different systems integrators from Europe and the U.S. if these countries opt for the CN235. In 2011 and 2012 PTDI worked with Israel’s Elta on the Korean Coast Guard deal for four CN235-220MPAs.

 

Having recently delivered a CN235 to Thailand’s parapublic Kaset organization, with options on another two, PTDI feels it is well positioned to provide the Royal Thai Navy with a solution for its ASW/MPA requirement for up to four aircraft.

 

Domestically, PTDI will shortly deliver a second CN235 MPA to the Indonesian Navy as part of its Marpat 1 maritime patrol program. These aircraft are equipped with the Thales Amascos system and include the FLIR Systems Star Safire sensor turret. “Another two CN235MPAs are contracted by the Navy as part of Marpat 2 but the radar system will come from Telephonics,” Wibotwo revealed.

Meanwhile, PTDI is assembling the first of two C295s for the Indonesian air force.

 

Airbus D&S previously delivered seven C295s from its production line at Seville, Spain. The two being assembled at Bandung complete the order.

Peace-keeping troops return home to a heroes welcome

A total of 175 troops from the 107th battalion have arrived into Dublin Airport following their tour of duty. 

Dublin airport was alive with excitement and touching emotion as families gathered to welcome home Dad, Mums, sons and daughters, uncles and aunts from the UN peace keeping mission.

Amongst them was Cork goalkeeper Alan Quirk looking forward to another Championship season - and already apprehensive of taking on Limerick.

The 107th Infantry battalion travelled to south Lebanon on November 2 last, guarding the border with Israel.

Troops said the area remains untouched by the Syrian conflict, though some refugees have passed through. 

The battalion consists of 332 Irish and 176 Finnish personnel under the irish command of lt col David Dignam, who remains to hand over command to the 108th battalion. He returns home next week.

Russia, Ireland Sign Space Cooperation Memorandum

Russia’s Federal Space Agency Roscosmos and Ireland’s National Space Center have signed a memorandum of understanding on bilateral cooperation in space exploration.

“The memorandum reaffirms the strive of both countries to promote the development of bilateral cooperation in the area of space exploration in the framework of 1967 Outer Space Treaty and other international treaties on peaceful space exploration,” Roscosmos said in a statement on Thursday.

The document also outlines basic principles and conditions of Russian-Irish cooperation in scientific space research, satellite navigation and Earth remote sensing.

Ireland joined the European Space Agency (ESA) in December 1980 to become the 11th member.

The country contributed 15.6 million euros (about $20 mln) or 0.4% to the ESA budget in 2012.

A growing number of Irish companies are becoming active in the European space program, with a strong focus on technology innovation.

In November 2011, Russia and Ireland signed an agreement at the 8th Russian-Irish Joint Economic Commission in Moscow to work together across a range of Space and Physics related programs.