The U.S. Defense Department is weighing the feasibility of extending
the service life of the nation’s aging Minuteman 3 intercontinental
ballistic missiles versus replacing them in coming decades with brand
new nuclear-armed ballistic missiles.
The 450 Minuteman 3s are expected to last through 2030, but might be
retained longer if they can be further refurbished, senior Pentagon
officials said at a Senate hearing on Wednesday. The weapons were first
deployed in 1970 and sit on alert in underground silos at three
different bases in Montana, North Dakota and Wyoming.
The Air Force, which fields and maintains the missiles, is “very
carefully analyzing exactly how the current system is degrading, so that
they have a much better understanding of how they might extend the life
of this [ICBM], if that is the alternative that’s chosen,” Madelyn
Creedon, assistant Defense secretary for global affairs, told the Senate
Armed Services Strategic Forces Subcommittee in testimony alongside
other civilian and military leaders.
The analysis, which is to begin in July after some “bureaucratic
delays,” will conclude late next year, said Lt. Gen. James Kowalski, who
heads Air Force Global Strike Command. The assessment will examine
whether to undertake a “program to further extend the life of the
Minuteman 3 or to develop a follow-on ICBM,” Creedon elaborated in her
written testimony.
Many details about the various modernization options and their
projected costs -- first examined in an initial Capabilities Based
Assessment finalized last October -- remain classified. However,
officials say key factors under study include whether to place any new
ICBMs in fixed launch silos or make them mobile on trucks or other
vehicles; which warhead to mate with the delivery vehicles; and how to
modernize these systems most affordably.
Whether the country’s future ICBM -- dubbed the “Ground-Based Strategic
Deterrent -- is an updated Minuteman or a totally new design, it
appears the missile will share quite a bit of hardware in common with the Navy’s future ballistic missile for basing aboard submarines, Defense officials say.
Which option ultimately is selected, according to experts, might come
down to a question that many automobile owners would find familiar: Does
it make more sense to save upfront investment by continuing to operate
an old design with swapped-out parts and upgrades, or to invest instead
in a new system with more up-to-date design efficiencies that could be
easier to maintain in the long run?
Another question facing the Minuteman 3’s overseers and custodians is
whether the missiles, even after some recent renovations, could actually
function through 2030. At the hearing, Senator Deb Fischer (R-Neb.)
asked if the Minuteman might age out sooner unless near-term steps are
taken to extend its service life.
“I am confident we can get the missile, as it is, to 2030 with the
programs that we have in place, or the programs that we don’t have
funded yet but plan to pursue in the next couple years,” responded
Kowalski, whose command is based in Louisiana.
For example, he said, there is some question about whether the casings
around the missile propellant might degrade early, a possibility that
could lead to leaks or malfunctions. If the existing propulsion unit
lasts an estimated 30 years, no refurbishment would be needed until 2025
or later, he said. However, less longevity in the technology could
demand earlier intervention.
Of the Minuteman’s three rocket stages, the third motor is attracting
most concern. However, there is no indication to date of any degradation
of the materials with which it is made -- not even any “adverse trends”
-- which has led many officials to conclude that the already overhauled
propulsion system might even last a half-decade or more beyond an
estimated 30-year lifespan, one issue expert said.
The expert asked not to be named in discussing the sensitive issue of how long a nuclear-armed system might remain viable.
The Minuteman 3 missile guidance system also could require a service-life extension between now and 2030, Kowalski said.
This, too, is a question under internal debate, according to the issue
expert. The Air Force estimate is that the current guidance system --
which helps direct a warhead to its target -- will function for another
17 years. However, some have raised questions about whether existing
electronics might fail earlier and should be traded out for updated
replacements, this source said.
Kowalski noted in written testimony that
the overall service life initially anticipated for the Minuteman 3 was
just 10 years, but the missile has since “proven its value in deterrence
well beyond the platform’s intended lifespan."
The Air Force is studying how any near-term maintenance for the
deployed Minuteman 3s, if needed, would relate to the missile’s eventual
replacement, the commander said at the hearing.
“All of the things that we plan to invest in the Minuteman 3 are
specific subsystems that we intend to dovetail into the ground-based
strategic deterrent, the follow-on [ICBM],” said the three-star general,
adding that the Pentagon intends to ensure “we are not paying for the
same thing twice.”
Some have suggested the United States might safely eliminate the
ICBM leg of the nation’s nuclear triad, and rely instead on a
combination of dual-capable, nuclear-conventional bomber aircraft and
ballistic missiles aboard highly survivable submarines at sea.
However, Kowalski suggested that as the capability to field atomic arms
and ballistic missiles proliferates around the globe, Washington’s ICBM
arsenal remains a crucial bulwark against possible nuclear blackmail or
coercion threats.
“There are 450 hardened launch facilities in the heartland of this
country,” he said. “And if we did not have those, we’d need to think
through what that scenario looks like in 15 or 20 years.”
Creedon was asked about a recent Obama administration decision to avoid further escalating tensions with North Korea by rescheduling a Minuteman 3 test launch from Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif., which had been slated for last week.
“We decided it was wise to postpone for a while the last launch because
of the situation on the Korean Peninsula,” she said. “It was a
situation that we just wanted to deal with in a way that we didn’t
increase the provocation cycle” in the region, she said.
Plans are now for the next Minuteman 3 test flight to occur between May
21 and 23, which would effectively resume the normal launch schedule
where it left off, Creedon said.
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