Iran confirmed that it is in
negotiations to sell North Korea oil. This may be just to grab some
media attention, but the North Koreans may also be looking for some
potential alternative source if their only current oil supplier (China)
cuts them off or reduces shipments. The Chinese are not happy with North
Korea’s self-destructive policies, especially their nuclear and
ballistic missile programs. This oil import deal would never be allowed
(by the West) to go forward because the North Koreans are broke and the
one thing they do have to sell is a workable atomic bomb design. That
could pay for a lot of oil, if Iran could deliver it.
The Iranian people are unhappy with shortages, unemployment,
and inflation and are more willing to risk the wrath of the security
forces to protest openly. A recent example occurred at a government
organized political event held in a sports stadium. To stage these
events the government orders many government employees to attend and
attracts others by offering some free food for those who will show up
and applaud a few times for the cameras. In a recent such event the
people were not happy with all the political speeches and just before
the keynote speaker, president Ahmadinejad, was to appear, some in the
audience began to chant insults and demand their free food now. Things
went downhill from there. Some of this was caught on cell phone cameras
and got to the outside world.
The resumption of tourist flights to Egypt has not worked out
well. The arrival of Shia pilgrims last month caused local Sunni
religious radicals to riot and the tourist flights were stopped.
Negotiations are underway with the Egyptians about how to assure the
safety of Iranian visitors. This is all a side-effect of the growing
animosity between Shia Iran and the Sunni Arabs in the region. Iran
wants to gain control of the most sacred Islamic holy places in Saudi
Arabia and become the leader of a more radicalized Islamic world. The
Sunni majority (about 80 percent) oppose this plan. Sunni Egypt is
sucking up to Iran to get some badly needed loans. The new Sunni radical
dominated Egyptian government has made a mess of the economy and is
running out of cash.
As if Iran didn’t have enough problems, it has caused some
more when some senior officials called for annexing neighbor Azerbaijan.
Iran shares a land border with Azerbaijan and has a historical claim on
Azerbaijan. In the 19th century Azerbaijan (as in the area occupied by
the Azeris, a Turkic people) was divided by Russia and Iran. Currently
about a quarter of the Iranian population is Azeri, but the Azeris of
Azerbaijan believe all Azeris should be part of an independent
Azerbaijan. This was how it was for centuries before Turkey, Russia, and
Iran began seeking to conquer the Caucasus (where Azerbaijan is). Some
Iranian Azeris like this idea and Iran is always looking for ways to
make Azerbaijan back off. Iran is responding to this separatist talk by
demanding that Iran absorb Azerbaijan. Russia and Turkey would never
allow this.
Iranian officials like to talk about how ready they are for
war. But Iran has been involved in a war for over a decade, one Iranian
leaders don’t like to talk about. This is the battle against the growing
list of sanctions. This one is fought in courts, corporate
headquarters, ports, and on Iran’s borders. It’s a war Iran is losing at
the moment, which may explain why Iranian officials are generally
silent on the matter. The latest round of sanctions, imposed last year,
made it very difficult for Iran to export oil and import a lot of stuff
it needs for industry, the military, and consumer happiness. Iran still
believes it can eventually get around these new sanctions, but so far
that has not been the case.
Unemployment, shortages, and inflation are
increasing inside Iran and the government is having a hard time putting a
positive spin on that. Another American move, one that the Iranians did
not expect, is also hurting. This is the growing production of gas and
oil from shale deposits in the United States. Americans quietly
perfected the technology to make this work and now oil and gas importers
worldwide have vast new local sources. This is driving down the price
of oil and adding to the hurt felt inside Iran. Despite the
effectiveness of the sanctions, the Iranian government believes that
they can get through this without having to give up their nukes or risk a
major uprising.
April 20, 2013: The military continues its propaganda campaign
by announcing three more breakthroughs which are merely locally made
prototypes of decades old weapons designs. The latest bunch of
breakthroughs include a frequency-hopping encrypted military radio, a
mobile anti-aircraft system using a quad launcher for shoulder fired
anti-aircraft missiles, and a computerized T-72 tank simulator. This
sort of thing only works with Iranians who do not know how to get access
to the Internet outside Iran and people who can read English. In other
words, the supporters of the religious dictatorship in Iran are the
prime audience for these deceptive announcements about military
technology because these people don’t know any better and are impressed.
While these announcements seem pathetic to outsiders, they serve a
purpose inside Iran.
A group of senior Iranian officials arrived in Syria for talks
on the situation there. For two years now the pro-Iran Assad government
has been fighting and losing against a popular Sunni rebellion. Iran
loses a lot if the Sunni rebels win. Some Iranian military experts
believe the Assads will lose, but some Iranians believe that it might be
possible to wear the rebels down and achieve some kind of peace deal
that would leave the Assads in control of at least part of Syria. To
this end Iran has been training and equipping an elite urban combat
force for the Assads. So far these troops have scored some successes but
they are not numerous enough to deal with the dozens of different rebel
groups attacking all over the country. Meanwhile, NATO and the Gulf
Arabs are increasing their aid for the rebels. Iran will support the
Assads to the end and beyond, that may be a topic of these new
discussions as well.
April 19, 2013: The U.S. announced $10 billion in arms sales
to Israel, the UAE (United Arab Emirates), and Saudi Arabia. Much of the
stuff is high-tech warplanes and missiles and is mainly in response to
the increasingly aggressive behavior of Iran.
April 18, 2013: The government has agreed to meet with UN
officials next month to discuss UN accusations that Iran is developing
nuclear weapons. This is all theater and standard Iran practice to try
and calm down the UN a bit and avoid more sanctions. UN atomic energy
experts believe that Iran has greatly increased its ability to enrich
uranium. Last July the government announced the installation of more
efficient centrifuges, for producing nuclear fuel (or more highly
enriched uranium for a nuclear bomb). The government also announced that
it was moving its uranium enrichment operation to underground (and
bomb-proof) facilities. This has been completed and production has as
much as tripled. The UN is concerned about this.
April 16, 2013: The head of the Israeli military pointed out
that Israel could carry out an attack on Iranian missile and nuclear
weapons targets without help from any other nation (like the United
States).
April 15, 2013: President Ahmadinejad is now saying publicly
that Iran does not need a nuclear weapon. This is seen as an effort to
tone down anger in the West and head off even more sanctions.
April 7, 2013: Saudi Arabia has called in dozens of local Shia
clerics and civic leaders for questioning. Iran has already denied that
18 people arrested for spying in Saudi Arabia last month worked for
them. That may be true but so many Iranian agents have been caught by
Arab police in the last few years that it is generally accepted that the
Iranian espionage efforts continue in Arab countries. Arabs see Iranian
efforts to develop nuclear weapons as aimed primarily at them. Iran has
dominated the region for thousands of years and many Iranians believe
that a new Iranian empire would be possible if Iran controlled all the
oil in the region. Iran accuses the Saudis of inventing these espionage
plots as a way to create more anti-Shia sentiment inside Saudi Arabia.
That is certainly happening whether intended or not. In this particular
case Iran has made a big deal over the recent arrest of a Saudi diplomat
in Iran. This all began with a traffic accident that apparently
involved the Saudi diplomat driving while intoxicated. All Saudi
government employees are expected to be good Moslems and not drink, but
alcoholic beverages are more easily obtained in Iran than Saudi Arabia
and the Iranian government tends to look the other way when fellow
Moslems from outside the country have a few drinks. But this time the
Iranians want to persuade the Saudis to tone down their anti-Shia spy
campaign.
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