Nyet! Now Russia Won’t Sell Badass Missile to Syria

American pilots can officially exhale. If they’re called upon to enforce a no-fly zone over Syria, they won’t have to outmaneuver one of the most advanced air-defense systems in the world. That’s because of a fateful decision made by Syrian dictator Bashar Assad’s last major international benefactor. 

Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, ended nervous Washington and Pentagon speculation today by telling the ITAR-TASS news agency that the Kremlin isn’t actually going to sell the S-300 air defense missile to Assad. Whatever other arms deals Russia will honor with Syria, the S-300 won’t be included. 

U.S. officials had worried to the Wall Street Journal on Wednesday that the Russians were prepared to ship Assad as many as 144 operational 3-000s, along with six (presumably mobile) launchers. Syria already has about five times the air defenses that Moammar Gadhafi’s Libya did, packed within a fifth of Libya’s territory, something that Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Martin Dempsey has warned about for over a year. 

It’s unclear how formidable those air defenses actually are. (For a sober, wonky exploration of the subject, Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies has you covered.) What’s very clear is that the S-300 would be an instant upgrade. It ranges 125 miles a shot; and can shoot down missiles as well as fighter planes. However unenthusiastic the U.S. military is about a no-fly zone right now, confronting the S-300 would make it instantly worried about losing many, many pilots. “This is a system that scares every Western air force,” Lexington Institute defense analyst Dan Goure once remarked. 

This is getting to be something of a pattern with the Russians and American adversaries. In 2010, thanks in part to American entreaties, Russia canceled a long-planned sale of S-300s to Iran. Had the Russians gone through with the deal, the Israeli and-occasionally-American planning for a bombing run on Iran would be immediately become more complicated. (So, kind of a mixed blessing?) The Iranian misfortune now extends to Iran’s proxy in Damascus, although who knows if Assad ever actually had a deal for the air-defense missiles — Syria has tried and failed to buy S-300s for decades. 

Nor is it clear that Washington played a role in stopping the sale. Max Fisher of the Washington Post speculates that Lavrov’s counterpart, John Kerry, might have pressed the issue in advance of their meeting this week in Moscow. (They are do have kind of a bromance going.) Regardless, a Syria without the S-300 serves the Obama administration’s interests, as theoretically the vulnerability should make Assad more pliable to international pressure to step down and abandon his two-year massacre of the Syrian uprising. 

Of course, without Syrian S-300s, the administration still faces rising pressure from legislators to take over Syrian airspace and Americanize the conflict, particularly after last weekend’s Israeli bombing runs. Those pilots, ironically, are now freer to take a mission the military wants to avoid. So — thanks, Russia?

US and Turkey to consider no-fly zones for Syria

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu are considering implementing no-fly zones for Syria after holding Saturday talks in Istanbul.

­According to Reuters, Clinton said that Ankara and Washington need to plan ways to assist the rebels fighting to topple President Bashar al-Assad – including possibly implementing a no-fly zone.

During an interview with reporters, Clinton indicated the no-fly zone was a possible option, but said the issue needed “greater in-depth analysis.”

It wouldn’t be the first time the US used its power to aid opposition forces. The same tactic was used to help Libyan rebels overthrow Muammar Gaddafi last year.

Until now, the US has been reluctant to take on a military role in Syria. But if the Libyan situation repeats itself, US military intervention could be a real possibility in the near future – only serving to escalate Syria’s 17-month-old conflict.

During the meeting, Clinton also said a working group will be set up in Turkey to respond to the Syrian crisis, according to AP.

The group would increase the involvement of the intelligence services and militaries of both the US and Turkey.

“We have been closely coordinating over the course of this conflict, but now we need to get into the real details of such operational planning. It needs to be across both of our governments,” Clinton said.

Clinton is also scheduled to hold talks with Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and President Abdullah Gul – both of whom support the Syrian opposition movement.

The US is aiming to lay groundwork for democratic transition in Syria.

The meeting comes as reports of violence were taking place in Damascus.

Earlier on Saturday, Syrian state TV reported that gunmen abducted three Syrian journalists and their driver, who work for a pro-government TV station, while covering violence in a suburb of Damascus.

According to Middle Eastern history and politics Professor Jeremy Salt, the opposition has little hope of winning the conflict without the help of its Western allies.

“As of now, Damascus has mostly been cleared of rebels. Aleppo on its way to being cleared. We can see that the army has a strategy here. It cleared out the Salah al-Din district within two days, and now it’s working its way through other suburbs. So unless the rebels get more support in terms of heavy weaponry, they are very much fighting on the back foot. So that’s why Hillary Clinton is in Istanbul. To ask the basic question, ‘What’s next?’” Salt told RT.

Meanwhile, opposition fighters are still struggling to gain control of Aleppo – a key battle city.

Rebels in Aleppo say they are preparing a counterattack against government forces, after heavy bombardment forced them to withdraw from the south-west district of Salah al-Din on Thursday.

Aleppo is the cause of serious concern for Western countries, Foreign Affairs Analyst Richard Heydarian told RT.

“The West is smelling blood right now because of the recent events, including the fleeing of the prime minister. What the Clinton administration [sic] is trying to do right now is try to coordinate some sort of military approach with Turkey and possibly also with the help of Israel and other Atab countries because they feel the opposition has a chance to retain its stronghold in Aleppo,” Heydarian said.

Turkey, however, has its own motivations for taking part in the meeting. The country is dealing with a growing humanitarian crisis of its own, as it struggles to support 50,000 Syrian refugees who have fled into the country.

Clinton has announced an extra US$5.5 million in help for displaced Syrians in Turkey.

“Turkey has two sides to this. On the one hand, it is very much concerned with the tragedy and a lot of Syrians flowing in – it is one of the biggest recipients of refugees from Syria. On the other hand – it is a possible rise of Kurdish insurgency – and there is coordination between Kurds in Syria and Iran. Turkey fears Kurds could launch its own independence campaign against Turkey,” Heydarian said.