U.S. diplomats are trying to
ease tensions between Ethiopia and Egypt. Egyptian politicians were
caught on live microphones discussing ways to stop Ethiopia’s Nile River
dam projects. The options discussed included covert military attacks
and supporting rebel groups –in other words, the Egyptians were vetting
war options. The U.S. has proposed that Ethiopia and Egypt establish a
joint working group to examine the impact of the Grand Ethiopian
Renaissance Dam (GERD). The U.S. has urged Ethiopia to minimize the
impact of the dam on downstream nations. The Egyptian leaders were
initially embarrassed but they discovered that the Egyptian people rally
around the Nile. Despite its own numerous internal troubles, the
Egyptian government has continued to threaten Ethiopia should Ethiopia
fail to suspend dam construction. Egypt has diplomatic and political
power. However, threatening Ethiopia with covert attack invites
retaliation by Ethiopia and at the moment Egypt is far less stable than
Ethiopia. Egypt lacks the logistical capacity and long-range strike
weapons to conduct a sustained military operation. Conceivably they
could use the Nile River as a supply line, but barges on the river would
be very susceptible to interdiction by air attack, mines or other forms
of interdiction. (Austin Bay)
June 23, 2013: Ethiopia said that Egypt’s claims of a
dooms-day reduction in the flow of the Nile River due to the GERD are
absurd allegations. Ethiopia has consistently stated that filling the
reservoir behind the Grande Ethiopian Renaissance Dam will take five to
six years. Ethiopian government engineers contend that during this
process the flow rate of the Nile River not be reduced to any degree
that Egyptians will even notice it. The Ethiopian reservoir will hold 74
million cubic meters of water. One of the diplomatic options for
resolving the row between Ethiopia and Egypt is for Ethiopia to agree to
take ten or 11 years to fill the reservoir. (Austin Bay)
June 21, 2013: The head of Egypt's National Water Research
Centre claimed that Ethiopia could reduce the flow of Nile river water
to Egypt by ten billion kilo-liters a year. He also claimed that every
one billion kilo-liter reduction will take around 200,000 acres of farm
land out of production. According to Egyptian figures, Egypt already
suffers from a water deficit of around ten billion kilo-liters a year.
The research center recently reported that Ethiopia’s dams could lower
the river level and make upstream water ferry travel more difficult.
Ethiopia rejects these claims as inaccurate and simply more Egyptian
propaganda.
June 20, 2013: The U.S. State Department reported that so far
Ethiopia has managed a successful transfer of power following the August
2012 death of long-serving leader Meles Zenawi. Ethiopia’s economy has
averaged a ten percent increase in GDP every years for the last five
years. The U.S. and Ethiopia cooperate in numerous areas, to include
supporting several on-going African Union security operations in Africa.
At the moment the one serious problem in the Ethiopia-U.S. bilateral
relationship is what the State Department called Ethiopia’s “weak human
rights record.” Very bad human rights record is more accurate, but
diplomats must be diplomatic.
June 17, 2013: For several decades the Kenyan military (Kenyan
Defense Forces, KDF) has relied on the British Army Training Unit in
Kenya (BATUK) for assistance in training. The British training cadre
maintains a training facility in the town of Nanyuki. BATUK has also
served as a liaison unit to facilitate training exercises with British
forces and the KDF. Recently the KDF acknowledged that the training
cadre had helped prepare Kenyan forces for their operation in Somalia.
Implicit in the statement was that the training was high quality and it
produced good results in the field. Kenya is not the first former
British colony to recognize the benefit of British military training
methods. Pakistan, India, Bangladesh and South Africa are all former
British colonies and all rank high on the UN’s list of quality forces
for peacekeeping missions.
June 13, 2013: The Ethiopian parliament approved a new Nile
Water rights agreement which reduces Egypt’s traditional allotment if
Nile River water. Six upstream Nile River basin countries support the
agreement. Of course Egypt is not a party to the new agreement.
Ethiopia’s parliament was really mocking the Egyptian government’s
threats to retaliate against Ethiopia’s new dams. Ethiopian diplomats
pointed out that for over ten years Ethiopia has been asking Egypt to
participate in Nile River water discussions and Egypt has refused.
June 12, 2013: A senior Egyptian defense official stated that
the escalating disagreement between his country and Ethiopia over Nile
River water flow “is not a military issue at this stage,”
June 11, 2013: The Ethiopian government refused to stop work
on any of its new dam projects. Ethiopia accused Egypt of making
irresponsible threats.
June 10, 2013: Egyptian president Mohamed Morsi said that he
does not want to go to war with Ethiopia but unless Ethiopia suspends
its dam construction projects Egypt will consider “all options.” The
Ethiopian government issued an immediate reply and said that Ethiopia is
prepared to defend the new Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.
June 9, 2013: Egypt rejected Ethiopia’s rejection of the
Egyptian demand that Ethiopia cease construction of its major Blue Nile
dam projects. The government of Egypt said that Egypt will never give up
a single drop of Nile River water. The Egyptian government declared
that it has a plan of action. However, Egypt is willing to talk with
Ethiopia.
June 8, 2013: Residents of the Somali seaport of Kismayo
reported a major firefight occurred between the Ras Kamboni militia and a
local militia. The Ras Kamboni militia is an ally of the Kenyan Defense
Forces (Kenya Army) which are still the primary peacekeeping force in
Kismayo. The Ras Kamboni are loyal to Ahmed Madobe who recently declared
himself president of southern Jubaland. The Somali government is
concerned that Madobe will turn Jubaland into a semi-autonomous state.
June 7, 2013: Ethiopia rejected Egyptian demands that it cease
construction of it Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) project on
the Blue Nile River. The government said that Egypt’s complaints about
the dam were not based on scientific evidence. Ethiopia also contended
that Egypt lacks a coherent policy regarding Nile River water rights. A
government spokesman accused the former Egyptian government led by Hosni
Mubarak of supporting Ethiopian rebel groups and claimed that Mubarak’s
attempts to destabilize Ethiopia had failed.
June 6, 2013: The United Kingdom announced that it will
compensate five thousand Kenyans for their suffering during the 1950s
Mau Mau rebellion. The individuals compensated were held in detention
camps. Many were abused and several claimed they were tortured by
British colonial authorities. The British compensation offer is an
attempt to settle a variety of claims, some of which have been in
litigation for years. UK attorneys made the argument that the
independent (since 1963) Kenyan government had taking over
responsibilities for the colonial government and it should be liable for
any damage claims. In November 2012 claimants produced official files
that documented attempts by colonial security officials to cover up the
March 1959 Hola detention camp incident. At Hola 11 prisoners were
beaten to death. No prison official was ever properly investigated or
held responsible for the murders. The UK decided to pay the damage
claims. Each claimant will receive around $3,900. The Mau Mau rebellion
was a complex insurgency. The number of people who died during the
rebellion is disputed. 10,000 is a common figure. The rebellion began in
1952 and ended in 1960.
June 5, 2013: The Egyptian government demanded that Ethiopia
stop construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the
Blue Nile. The demand amounts to doubling down. After an open
microphone caught senior Egyptian leaders discussing covert actions
against Ethiopia, Egypt was initially embarrassed. However, protecting
the Nile has proved to be a domestic political issue that unites most
Egyptians.
June 4, 2013: A senior aide of Egypt’s President Mohamed Morsi
has apologized for one of the most public diplomatic and political
mistakes committed by anyone in recent years. The aide neglected to
tell politicians meeting with President Morsi to discuss Ethiopia’s Blue
Nile River dam projects that the meeting was being broadcast live on
state television. At the meeting several participants, unaware that the
world was watching and listening, openly suggested ways for Egypt to
sabotage Ethiopia’s dams, in particular the $4.2 billion Grand Ethiopian
Renaissance Dam (GERD). The GERD is about 15 kilometers from the
Ethiopia-Sudan border. The president and the politicians were discussing
a report by the tripartite Egypt-Sudan-Ethiopia commission analyzing
the impact of Ethiopia's dam project and its decision to divert the Blue
Nile River. Ethiopia has already partially diverted the Blue Nile at
the site of the GERD. One political leader, Yunis Makhyun, a member of
the Islamist fundamentalist Nur Party, called the GERD a strategic
threat to Egypt. He thought the Egyptian government should consider
supporting an Ethiopian rebel group, in order to pressure the Ethiopian
government. Ayman Nour, a member of the liberal-secular Ghad Party,
suggested Egypt buy or circulate rumors that it will buy new military
aircraft (implying ne strike aircraft that could hit the dam). He
speculated that this would put political pressure on Ethiopia. He also
said that Egyptian political, military and intelligence personnel might
be sent to Ethiopia to “intervene” in Ethiopian domestic politics.
Egypt claims 87 percent of the Nile River’s water. The legal basis of
this claim is a 1929 colonial-era agreement. In 1959 the Nasser
government reiterated this claim. Egypt claims the right to veto
upstream river projects. Ethiopia says it was not a party to the 1929
agreement. Since the public vetting of these belligerent options, the
Egyptian government has stated that none of the recommendations,
suggestions, or speculations by the political leaders at the meeting are
Egyptian government policy. (Austin Bay)
June 3, 2013: The Kenyan military will acquire unmanned aerial
aircraft (UAVs) for use in surveillance missions. The military said
that it has sought advice and assistance from both the U.S. and Japan.
The military will use the drones to support military missions, but the
government will also employ them in a variety of paramilitary security
missions. One of the key UAV missions is monitoring light weapons
smuggling. The national police also need help in monitoring tribal
raiders who cross Kenya’s northern border from South Sudan, Ethiopia and
Somalia. Cattle raids continue to be a major problem in northern
Kenya. The UAVs can also be used for game preserve protection, to
monitor wild animal herds and to look for poachers.
June 2, 2013: 10,000 Ethiopian political demonstrators marched
in the capital, Addis Ababa. Most of the demonstrators were from
opposition political parties. The demonstrators demanded that the
government respect the constitution. They also demanded that the
government release political prisoners. Authorities said it was the
largest anti-government demonstration held in the country since the 2005
election. Street violence in that disputed election left over 200
people dead. The demonstrators accused the government of suppressing
dissent. Ethiopia’s parliament has 547 members. Only one current member
of parliament represents an opposition party.
