Korea - The Starving Masses Push Back

Two decades of increasing shortages in North Korea have left some telltale signs that can be seen from the air (or space). With the freely available commercial satellite pictures there are a lot more people scrutinizing this view of North Korea and noticing interesting patterns. For example, look at any residential area and you can pick out the buildings belonging to the government or government officials or those favored by the government, like successful athletes, entertainers or scientists. These are the ones with roofs that are not falling apart for lack of maintenance or building materials for repairs. Most North Koreans are fixated on finding food, or something that can be exchanged for food. Building materials are produced but increasingly exported to China because the government needs the foreign currency to buy goodies and assure the loyalty of the few percent of the population that keeps everyone else in line. While South Korea and much of China has emerged from the feudal period, North Korea never did. The place is run by a hereditary aristocracy that monopolizes the wealth and stays in power with armed retainers. It’s all quite visible from the air, including the palatial homes and country estates of the most senior officials.

 

One thing North Korea learned from its decision earlier this year to close the Kaesong Industrial Complex (financed and run by 123 South Korean firms employing 53,000 North Koreans) in order to punish South Korea for trying to get the North Koreans to halt their nuclear weapons program was that cash is king.  Kaesong was shut down by the north in April and the northern leaders soon discovered that the foreign currency generated by Kaesong was sorely missed. Few of the senior people in North Korea know much about accounting or how the world economy works, but the cash shortage created by the Kaesong shutdown got their attention. This was seen as an opportunity by China who soon convinced the northern leadership to make up with South Korea and get Kaesong operating again. China also pointed out that it would be possible to created many more Kaesongs and have even more cash with which to keep the Kim dynasty in power longer. To further encourage the northerners to get smart China threatened to further reduce food, oil and other shipments if the North Koreans didn’t calm down and at least make an effort to get their economic act together. So the north agreed to let the South Korean companies revive production at Kaesong as soon as they could. At that point the northern leadership got another lesson in economics. Many of the South Korea factory owners did not want or could not return to Kaesong. Either they had lost the customers who bought the goods produced in Kaesong or simply no longer trusted the North Koreans. The Chinese explained to the North Koreans how that all worked and apparently the North Koreans now have some trusted officials who have actually become “business literate” and can understand what the Chinese are saying and explain it all to their bosses. So Kim Jong Um has ordered the men who run the nine provinces of North Korea to designate two areas in their largest cities to become additional Kaesongs. China will help foreigners willing and able to provide the money and managers to set up operations and North Korea will provide the cheap labor (and keep most of the wages paid for these workers). The North Korean leaders have been warned that these new Kaesongs will not be an overnight success and North Korea must pay attention to maintaining trust and good relations with their foreign partners. That is difficult for North Korea officials to do as they tend to treat foreigners, including the Chinese at times, like serfs who exist to serve the North Korean leadership. Many North Koreans fear that the 18 new economic enterprise zones will turn out more like Rasun City than Kaesong. Rasun City was another economic zone, like Kaesong, started in 2010 in the area where the North Korean, Chinese and Russian border meet. Rather than just depend on one country (like South Korea in Kaesong) North Korea expected everyone to come looking to set up shop in Rasun City. That did not happen. Without the guidance of South Korean economic development experts the North Koreans scared off potential investors and mismanaged Rasun City badly. Most North Koreans see Rasun City as a failure while Kaesong was a success. The Chinese are trying to persuade the North Korean leaders to recognize the difference between what happened at Rasun City and Kaesong and act accordingly. As if to encourage the North Koreans South Korea has revealed that it is having a lot of problems getting South Korean companies interested in setting up operations in Kaesong and that it may take years of stability up there to return to the pre-shutdown level of activity. The shutdown will not soon be forgotten by South Korean businesses.

  

Meanwhile the North Korean leaders have other economic problems that could get ugly. Namely the decision to cut food distributions to ordinary citizens. This is not “free” food but usually the only payment many North Koreans get for weeks of hard labor during harvest season or to repair roads and other infrastructure after natural disasters or simply to maintain minimum standards for what little economy is left. Although the government has always boasted of “taking care of the people” that is increasingly not the case, yet people are still expected to take care of the government. Winter is underway and with food and fuel shortages a lot of people are going to be angry, as well as hungry and cold. Some members of the senior leadership can see where this is going and the orders cutting food and fuel for the poorest North Koreans are often being countermanded. Someone is paying attention, but many people at the top still ignore the suffering and believe their own propaganda, not what is actually happening at the local level.

  

The North Korean government is also concerned about how much ordinary North Korean are learning about the outside world, especially the much higher living standards in South Korea. To deal with that more secret police have been assigned to workers at Kaesong. For every hundred workers there will be 60 security personnel. This is part of a larger effort to keep news from spreading in North Korea. It’s too late to stop this sort of thing. That is believed to be why the government recently backed down on efforts to cut free food distributions in remote areas. In the past the news would not have spread and those affected would realize that and just suffer in silence. That has changed and that scares a government used to having all its orders followed promptly and without question.

  

While never considered the North Korean military a threat, it has viewed the increased capabilities of the South Korea military with alarm. Although China has the largest military in the region and is the most aggressive in using it, the devil is in the details. Most Chinese military personnel belong to the army. This is a threat to all neighbors China shares land borders with, especially Russia. While much is made of Chinese efforts to upgrade their navy and air force, these two services are still inferior to the Japanese navy and air force. The Japanese have more modern and effective ships and their crews are far more proficient than their Chinese counterparts. Same thing with the Japanese Air Force. Moreover, the Japanese naval forces are themselves overshadowed by American warships assigned to the Western Pacific.  In addition to the Japanese and American forces the Chinese have to worry about the formidable Taiwanese air and naval forces as well those of South Korea. Technically Russia is an ally, but the Russians keep most of their air and naval forces out of the Pacific and are inclined to continue their tradition of never having been at war with the United States. So China has to be careful. Any confrontations with Japan at sea in the air have to be handled carefully because China is still playing with a weak hand. In Korea this becomes an issue if China has to move into North Korea to deal with a government collapse there. South Koreans expect to deal with this, and finally unite Korea. China has expressed opposition to this. While the larger Chinese army would give China an edge on the ground, at sea and in the air things would be different. China would be blockaded and her economy crippled. This could cause major uprisings inside China. In this case, South Korea is the one who could pull the trigger and destroy the communist dictatorship that has run China for over 60 years.

  

South Korea recently launched the first of ten LST II class amphibious assault ships. These are 7,100 ton vessels that can carry 300 hundred troops as well as 10-20 vehicles. There is a landing pad that can hold two helicopters. Two smaller landing craft that can run up on a beach are also carried. The first ship will enter service in 2015 and are part of an expansion of South Korea amphibious forces. The South Korean Marine Corps is being expanded from 25,000 men to 32,000 by the end of the decade.

  

The international hacker community is becoming less mysterious. Over the last decade Internet security firms (especially Kaspersky Labs and Symantec) have been increasingly successful at identifying the hacker organizations responsible for some of the large-scale hacker attacks on business and government networks. These commercial security outfits often cooperate with intelligence agencies to share their findings and get a better sense of who and what the threat is.

 

Many of these hacker groups don’t really have a name, and are often groups of hackers put together for a specific campaign and that particular effort is given a name by the security experts who uncover and publicize it. Such was the case with Icefog, which was notable for going on for a long time. Operations like Icefog are also called APTs (Advanced Persistent Threats) because they are well crafted enough to remain undetected for a long time and d0 serious damage.  Icefog was directed at South Korean and Japanese military and Internet targets and analysts have found that a single group of North Korean hackers, called Dark Seoul, is responsible for nearly a billion dollars’ worth of damage since 2009 via Internet campaigns like Icefog.

  

South Korean intelligence analysts are now convinced that Kim Jong Un replaced the head of the army last August. The outgoing commander was 75 years old and appointed by Kim’s father. The new commander, Ri Yong-gil, is believed to be at least ten years younger and has won the confidence of Kim Jong Un over the last two years. In that time Kim Jong Un, usually on the advice of his aunt (his father’s sister) and uncle, has replaced over 200 senior military commanders. This was mainly to get men considered more loyal to the new, much younger, head of the country.

    

October 18, 2013: South Korea has agreed to speed up delivery of twelve jet fighters to the Philippines. The aircraft is the FA-50, which is the combat version of the South Korean designed and manufactured T-50 jet trainer. This aircraft was developed over the last decade, at a cost of over two billion dollars. The first test flight of the T-50 took place in 2002. The 13 ton aircraft is actually a light fighter, and can fly at supersonic speeds. With some added equipment (radars and fire control), the T-50 becomes the FA-50, a combat aircraft. The Philippines retired the last of its ancient F-5 jets in 2005 and now expects to get its first FA-50 by late 2014 and all the rest by 2015.

  

October 15, 2013: The Philippines upgraded its military ties with South Korea. The new agreement implements exchanges of military personnel for familiarization and training. This is also meant to exchange information about how each nations’ troops handle disaster relief and peacekeeping operations. Less publicized were the parts of the new agreement dealing with more detailed planning for cooperation against growing Chinese aggression in the sea areas between China and all its neighbors (particularly the Philippines, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam.) All of these Chinese neighbors are strengthening military alliances with each other and the United States to better deal with the Chinese tactics of gradual but persistent pressure.

  

October 10, 2013: Panama has revealed that the illegal Cuban weapons found on North Korean cargo ship last July were not “scrap” but were fully operational. The 250 tons of Cuban SA-2 anti-aircraft missile systems and MiG-21 components (including over a dozen jet engines) were buried under a cargo of sugar trying to get through the Panama Canal. North Korea at first denied any knowledge of the weapons but eventually admitted that they were obtained from Cuba and not declared. Such weapons shipments are forbidden by international sanctions and were seized. Cuba tried to explain it away as a shipment of military surplus that was non-functional and basically scrap. Panama called in experts who concluded that the stuff was operational. Cuba was being paid over $100 million for these weapons and other already shipped. The North Korean ship and its 35 man crew is still being held in Panama because North Korea refuses to pay a million dollar fine to get them released.

October 8, 2013: South Korean intelligence confirmed that it is quite certain North Korea has resumed operation of the Yongbyon nuclear reactor. North Korea announced it would restart Yongbyon last April. This reactor can produce nuclear material for bombs and had been completely shut down since 2007 and partially dismantled in 2008. It was believed that it would take at least six months (and possibly years) to resume production at Yongbyon. This reactor was shut down as part of an aid deal. But the northerners refused to completely dismantle their Yongbyon nuclear reactor.

 

They insisted on leaving some of the structure intact, and would not surrender unused nuclear fuel.

 

This sort of double dealing is so typical of the North Koreans. In response, South Korea increased its defense spending.

  

October 4, 2013: Despite North Korean efforts to improve relations with South Korea, old habits die hard. Today North Korean media launched a vicious personal attack on the South Korean leader. 

  

October 3, 2013: Japan and the United States agreed to expand their military alliance. This means an American missile defense radar system would be built in Japan and the U.S. would station large (Reaper and Global Hawk) UAVs in Japan. The X Band radar the U.S. will install near Kyoto will give Japan anti-missile systems more warning that a missile is headed towards Japan. This is mostly directed at North Korea, which generally threatens Japan whenever South Korea is warned about where North Korea ballistic missiles might be aimed. The American UAVs would help Japan monitor offshore areas where Chinese warships are showing up with greater frequency. 

South Korea pushes to build three more Aegis destroyers

The South Korean Navy has made a request to build three more Aegis destroyers to bolster defense against its Asian neighbors and North Korea amid increasing military tension due to territorial disputes, a military source said Wednesday.

 

South Korea currently operates three 7,600-ton Aegis warships, but the Navy has sought to increase its fleet to cope with rising regional tension in light of Pyongyang's third nuclear test conducted earlier this year and ongoing territorial disputes between China and Japan.

 

"The Navy made a request for three additional Aegis ships to the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) a year ago," the source said, asking for anonymity. "The JCS will discuss the plan in a meeting slated for next month."

 

If the plan is approved, the Navy will begin to build the ships between 2020 and 2025, he noted.

It is estimated to cost about 3 trillion won (US$2.8 billion) to build the three ships, according to military officials.

 

South Korea has built three Aegis destroyers since 2004 under a Navy buildup project to bolster defense against North Korea.

 

The 166-meter-long destroyer is equipped with the latest radar system as well as missiles and torpedoes in their vertical launch system. With 300 crew members, it can also carry two mid-sized helicopters and sail at a top speed of 30 knots within a range of 1,000 kilometres.

Report: N. Korea Deploys New Guns Along Border

North Korea has deployed new rocket launchers along its border capable of hitting targets beyond Seoul, a report said Sunday.

Artillery units from the North were spotted replacing older multiple rocket stations with an upgraded version of the 240mm guns, Yonhap news agency said.

The agency quoted an unnamed government official as saying the new multiple rocket launchers with a maximum range of 70 kilome ters (42 miles) could extend their reach beyond the South Korean capital.

The South’s defense ministry declined to confirm the report.

North Korea has 5,100 multiple rocket launchers, according to military data.

It has been eager to upgrade its mainstream multiple rocket launchers, which pose a serious security threat to South Korea.

Residents in Seoul and neighboring satellite cities, together home to nearly half the South’s 49 million people, have always lived under threat of attack from the North’s rockets and long-range artillery.

In 2010, North Korea using multiple rocket launchers shelled a South Korean island near the disputed Yellow Sea border, killing four people.

U.S. flattop arrives in S. Korea for joint naval drills

The U.S. nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Nimitz arrived in South Korea Saturday to participate in joint naval drills as part of routine training, the Combined Forces Command (CFC) said.

   The 97,000-ton Nimitz, one of the world's largest warships, made a port call at the southeastern port city of Busan for a three-day stay to participate in joint military drills over the weekend in southern and eastern waters of the Korean Peninsula.

USS Nimitz is part of the Nimitz Strike Group, which is composed of guided-missile destroyers USS Momsen, USS Preble and guided-missile cruiser USS Princeton, according to the U.S. Navy's Web site.

   The naval drill involving the Nimitz warship, which follows a five-day anti-submarine drill in the Yellow Sea that concluded Friday, is aimed at enhancing military readiness and interoperability between the allies, the CFC said.

   During a guided tour of the ship, Rear Admiral Michael White, commander of the Nimitz Strike Group, told reporters that the two navies perform 15 to 16 exercises a year and that this port call is part of routine training between the two militaries.

   Last week, North Korea condemned the military exercises and warned that it would mercilessly avenge any breach of its territorial sovereignty with rocket forces. Pyongyang called on Seoul to stop "hostile acts and military provocations" if it wants to normalize the suspended Kaesong Industrial Zone.

   About 28,500 American troops are stationed in South Korea as the 1950-53 Korean War ended in an armistice agreement, not a peace treaty.

Korea - The Winners

North Korea continues to refuse calls to halt their nuclear weapons and long-range missiles program. That stubbornness has resulted in a growing list of international trade sanctions. In response the north has threatened war with South Korea in increasingly hostile terms in the last few months. War would hurt South Korea, but it would destroy North Korea and no one is quite sure what North Korea is up to. China is among the perplexed. It appears that the North Korean leadership is split on what to do about the continued economic and social problems. Although GDP has increased by 25 percent in the last decade, most of that increase went to the military and the few thousand families that run the country. They have flat screen TVs, new cars and impressive homes (visible on Google Earth) outside the capital. Inside Pyongyang there is a lot of new construction, including stores selling luxury goods. 

In the rest of the country all you see is a poorly maintained slum with frequent electrical blackouts and growing shortages of fuel for heating and transportation. The GDP growth comes largely by allowing Chinese firms to operate mines and factories, using cheaper North Korean labor. The government seizes most of the profits from this increased economic activity, leaving most North Koreans with less than they had a decade ago. This has caused growing unrest, including anti-government graffiti (unknown a decade ago) and more people fleeing to China and from there to South Korea with details of the hell up north. China has been urging North Korea to allow economic freedom, as China did in the 1980s. But many in the North Korean leadership believe this would lead to revolution and catastrophe for them.

 

North Korea has put more restrictions on travel to the Chinese border. Like most old-school communist police states everyone must carry an internal passport at all times and you need a permit to travel outside your home town. For those travelling to areas near the Chinese border additional permissions and documentation must now be obtained. This puts pressure on the government and secret police officials involved because for everyone they approve who disappears (and is presumed to have fled to China) the responsible official is in trouble. Too much of that can get you sent to prison. Despite the risk, $50-100 in bribes will get you past all the document checks as you get near to the Chinese border.

 

One reason for this crackdown on travel to the Chinese border is increased hostility towards the North Korean government by China. This is expressed in several ways. For example Chinese officials will not meet with their North Korean counterparts. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un recently sought to arrange a visit to China, but his officials who went to China to arrange the trip last month were snubbed and came back without meeting any senior Chinese officials. At the border crossings Chinese border guards are interfering with North Korean government exports of drugs and counterfeit U.S. currency, as well as blocking some imports. China is sending less fuel and food. China is unhappy with North Korean threats of war and this is how China sends the message. So far North Korea has not responded in a dramatic fashion, but it has been gradually toning down the threatening gestures (long range missiles readied for launch, additional troop activity along the DMZ and anti-South Korea propaganda).  Officially North Korea is still getting ready for war. 

 

The North Korean government is trying to find new jobs for the workers at the recently closed (by North Korea) Kaesong Industrial Complex in North Korea. This put over 50,000 North Koreans out of work. The South Korean government is providing help with the losses suffered by the South Korean companies that operated the Kaesong factories. North Korea has blamed South Korea for all this and is quietly trying to get jobs in China for some of the unemployed Kaesong workers. Most of the workers and their families brought to Kaesong to work in the South Korea factories are being sent back to the other parts of North Korea they came from. Shutting down Kaesong cost the North Korean government a lot of money since the wages of the Kaesong workers were heavily taxed. 

North Korea has long exported workers to China and Russia, as long as the workers were housed in dormitories where they could be watched by North Korean secret police. Any of these workers who tried to defect would be putting their family into prison, which was a death sentence for the very young and very old. North Korean workers don’t like working outside the country when they have to leave their families behind. But working in Russia and China was at least a job and you got enough to eat.

South Korea has lost more than money with the closure of Kaesong. The South Korean managers have long been a good source of intel on the north. One of the last bits of such intel received was North Korean officials fearing that the 50,000 workers at Kaesong were learning too much about the higher standard of living in South Korea and were beginning to question the mismanagement of the North Korean economy. Apparently this has been a problem for several years and the decision to shut down Kaesong was delayed because of all the cash it was bringing in for the North Korean government. The North Korean government is also trying to ensure that the former Kaesong workers do not pollute other North Koreans with impure thought. To that end these workers are being forced to attend two hours a day of indoctrination and reminders that North Korea is the worker’s paradise and that South Korea is evil incarnate. The workers are unhappy with the mandatory indoctrination sessions, and the sharp drop in income. 

 

South Koreans appear less concerned about the North Korean threat than many foreign countries (like the United States and Japan). That’s because South Koreans believe that aside from all the hostile rhetoric, in the end the people of North Korea and South Korea are all Koreans and that something can be worked out. The alternative is fixating on another war, which benefits neither the north nor the south. Nevertheless, many South Koreans are beginning to wonder just how deranged and unpredictable the leaders up north really are. 

 

Although North Korea has been receiving technical assistance on ballistic missile design from China and Russia for decades, it is obvious that not enough such help has been provided to enable the North Koreans to perfect their long range (over 1,000 kilometers) multi-stage rockets. Satellite photos of launch sites and some test results are public information. From this it is obvious that the North Korean long-range missile program is a low-budget operation that emphasizes spectacular propaganda events, not systematic development of useful capabilities. The North Koreans are trying to leapfrog the tedious development process used by the U.S., Russia and China and ends up launching high-risk rocket designs. That’s why they have such a high failure rate. North Korea builds most of the rocket components itself and these are largely simple technology that has been around for a while. The problem they have is assembling all the thousands of parts to create a workable and reliable long-range rocket. Even when they have a successful test, it’s doubtful that they have a very reliable design. 

 

North Korea appears to have followed the same path in developing nuclear weapons. The three North Korean weapons tests conducted so far indicate a crude design. This would appear to mean North Korea had to develop the design largely by themselves. A separate question is whether Russia supplied technical help on adapting a nuclear weapon to handle the physical and electronic stresses of being launched by a ballistic missile. This is no trivial task and problems with warhead design continue to plague the existing nuclear powers. It would appear that the North Koreans have not yet “weaponized” their nuclear device design to work in a missile (or even an aircraft bomb). But the possibility of illicitly obtained Russian tech is always there until evidence to the contrary is found. The same with technical assistance from Pakistan, which was helped by China to develop its nuclear warhead equipped missiles.  In the end the biggest obstacle the North Koreans face is a reliable warhead design. Testing such a design without actually firing a live nuke into the ocean requires another bunch of tech (and high-performance computers) that North Korea does not have. 

 

May 4, 2013: South Korean pro-democracy activists (many of them refugees from the north) attempting to release balloons (carrying 200,000 leaflets and cheap consumer goods into the north) were stopped by police. Police have often tried to prevent these balloon launchings in the past, and usually failed. But this time the cops shut it down at a park six kilometers from the DMZ. Police also halted a balloon launch last month. This time local villagers had complained to the police, fearing that this time North Korea would make good on its frequent threats to fire artillery at the launch sites. The North Korean artillery has never fired after these balloons floated north. When the balloons reach the north police and soldiers are sent out to seize the cargo carried by the balloons, lest northerners be polluted by this South Korean propaganda. Over the years, many of these downed balloons have been found by civilians and the word slowly circulated about what the message really was. China has long called for the two Korea’s to stop threatening each other over this use of balloons. This has been going on for years. To the north, this is a deliberate provocation by the south. But the reality is that many South Koreans want the North Korean dictatorship to collapse and that is more likely to happen when more North Koreans know the truth about life in the two Koreas. For decades the North Korean government has restricted information in the north and smothered the people with propaganda describing the north as the best of all possible worlds and the south as worse off. In the last decade, more and more northerners have learned the truth and this has caused confusion, fear, corruption and calls for change. Many northern leaders believe some of their own propaganda, and don’t understand how a democracy works. They cannot comprehend people doing anything without first obtaining permission from a government official. The balloon releases must be a South Korean government operation. In the most recent case the north openly threatened military action if balloons were released again. Southern officials responded that the south would fire back if attacked, but in the end the southern government did ban the balloon release. 

 

May 2, 2013: A North Korean court sentenced American Kenneth Bae to 15 years in prison after convicting him of espionage and plotting to overthrow the North Korean government. Bae was a tour operator and advocate for more aid to starving North Koreans. The charges against him described setting up a network of anti-North Korea programs in China and smuggling anti-government literature into North Korea. No evidence was presented at the trial and Bae, who was said to have confessed, did not testify. This is the fourth American to be seized and prosecuted in North Korea since 2009. Bae was arrested there six months ago. The other three Americans were eventually freed after negotiations with North Korea. 

 

April 26, 2013: North Korea refused a South Korean offer to negotiate a peaceful settlement of whatever complaints the north has. The south was particularly eager to reopen the Kaesong industrial park in North Korea, where 53,000 North Koreans work for 123 South Korean firms.

South Korea to Buy State-of-the-Art Interceptor Missiles from U.S.

The Joint Chiefs of Staff are following a Navy recommendation to buy American-made SM-3 interceptor missiles for Aegis ships.

The SM-3 missile is capable of intercepting an incoming enemy ballistic missile at an altitude of 150 km, much higher than the ground-based PAC-3 missiles now in use.

The Navy recommended the purchase because the new PAC-3 system has a high failure rate because it leaves only 5 to 7 seconds to intercept North Korea's Scud or Rodong missiles.

A government source said the SM-3 missiles can be deployed on the Aegis ships like the Sejong the Great once the Navy's software is upgraded.

South Korea has only an improved version of the Patriot PAC-2 missile and has been eyeing a better version, the PAC-3.

One SM-3 missile costs W15 billion (US$1=W1,104), seven times as much as the PAC-3. SM-3s are a key component of the U.S. missile defense system, but experts question whether they would be suitable against North Korean missiles, which fly at a low altitude over short ranges.

During a visit to South Korea, China, and Japan recently, Gen. Martin Dempsey, the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, said, "Now is the right time, with the right capabilities in place, to seek to establish a collaborative, trilateral ballistic missile defense architecture incorporating U.S., Japanese and South Korean military assets."

He also proposed that "senior military officers of all three countries advise their political leaders to integrate air and missile defense systems."

This spawned speculation that the U.S. is trying to deploy its own SM-3 missiles in South Korea following their deployment on the U.S. mainland and in Japan.

South Korea is pushing for its own defense system against ballistic missile attacks from the North rather than joining the U.S. shield.

"There are some historic sensitivities," Dempsey said, referring to suspicions in South Korea and China against Japan over its past aggression. But he added, "All three nations should be mature enough to set aside their differences and focus on the common, prolonged threat of ballistic missiles from Pyongyang."

South Korea offers China a deal

Six weeks of aggressive threats to start a war have come to nothing for North Korea. None of this bluster has produced any needed aid (as in free food or fuel) or offers to reduce the sanctions. No one shows any sign of giving in to this latest barrage of threats. This is a major disappointment for the northern leadership. For over half a century you could always get something useful if you ranted and threatened long enough. The north cannot risk making good on these threats and starting an actual war, as they would lose big. North Korean military planners were taught the “correlation of forces” by their Russian mentors and have calculated the growing strength of the south and the decline of the north. All those smart bombs and combat-proven new tech the south and their allies have would make a mess of the north. But maybe another nuclear or long-range missile test will help.

 

In the last few days North Korean troops have been seen building fortifications near border crossings. This is unusual because for decades it was assumed any war between north and south would begin with a North Korean invasion of the south. The new fortifications indicate that the north is recognizing the power balance shift and that it is more likely South Korean troops will be moving north if it comes to war. 

 

South Korea has offered to negotiate with North Korea over the recently closed (by North Korea) Kaesong Industrial Complex in North Korea. This put over 50,000 North Koreans out of work and is costing the South Korean companies millions of dollars. The South Korean government has said it will provide help with these losses and wants to see what the North Koreans have to say about putting 50,000 of their own people out of good jobs and making future investment from South Korea less likely because of this nonsense. South Korean who work at the Kaesong Industrial Complex have long been a good source of intel on the north and apparently these sources indicate that it’s not just unemployed workers in Kaesong who are unhappy with their government’s antics. By asking for talks the south is indicating it wants to make it easy for the north to back down and get the Kaesong Industrial Complex and its employees working again. 

 

The out-of-work Kaesong employees say their complaints about their government are not unique to the well-off (relatively speaking) workers at the special economic zone, but are common throughout the north. People are tired of all the propaganda, which is another tool the government uses to get everyone to ignore all the hungry, ill-housed and underemployed people up north. Its bad enough northerners have to hear it all the time, but many are ordered out to perform in public demonstrations of “popular anger at the enemy”. This is annoying and time consuming. It used to be you got a little food for attending these “voluntary” exercises, but the food situation has gotten so bad that the government reserves have been depleted. Everyone was reminded of this during the recent evacuation exercises, when city dwellers moved to rural dispersal sites as they would in wartime to avoid bombing attacks on the cities. The evacuees found that there was no food available for them and as a result the evacuation exercise fell apart as people simply walked away to find food. Only the senior leadership, most of who live in the cities, always has enough food. In the capital (Pyongyang) the government gave most residents several days of food in early April (to celebrate the birthday of founder Kim Il Sung). A few other cities got such distributions but most of the population did not, which only increases the resentment against those pampered government lackeys in the cities (especially the capital). In most of the country, hunger, or the threat of it, is a constant worry. Many of the North Korean soldiers the propaganda declares are “ready for war” are actually, and quite visibly, out helping plant the new crops (as they do every year). 

 

The last six weeks have made it clear to the North Korean leadership that they have lost control of information. News of how the outside world is reacting to all the threats, and how those threats look to the rest of the world, is quickly getting to most North Koreans. The secret police (who monitor public attitudes) are reporting that people have a low opinion of their government and the current threats of war have not changed that. The secret police also point out that a lot of North Korean propaganda, especially the stuff insisting that North Koreans have it better than people of other countries (like China, South Korea and Japan) is considered a bad joke by most North Koreans, and a growing number of them are openly mocking the mandatory lectures and demonstrations they must attend. This is ominous, the fact that the people are losing their fear of retaliation. This is what happened in Eastern Europe in 1989 when all the communist governments there collapsed in a few months. North Korean leaders studied that event carefully and concluded that they had their people under control, that the people still feared their leaders. The decline in fear is scary news indeed because North Korea is basically a police state and without lots of fear that sort of government does not work. 

 

The north is buzzing with talk of the April 14^th collapse of a large mosaic wall honoring Kim Il Sung in Musan. It was quickly deduced that the mosaic came down because someone had sold off some of the construction materials and the wall was not as strong as it was supposed to be. When a strong enough wind came along, the wall came down. This is the first time a monument to the two previous rulers of North Korea (Kim Il Sung and his son Kim Jong Il) was subject to obvious corruption. There are 35,000 statues and monuments like this in North Korea and these representations of the two deceased rulers are considered sacred. It is a big deal that these monuments are now considered fair game by corrupt officials. For true-believers in the North Korean leadership this is a shocking event. For most North Koreans it is kind of expected. The old value system, inculcated by decades of relentless Kim-worshipping propaganda, is collapsing. The government will take action over this. 

There was a similar collapse of a lesser monument (honoring a lesser hero) in 2005, apparently due to poor design, not corruption. Still, those responsible for that collapse were punished. That will happen this time as well and there will be an official story that does not mention corruption. Since Kim Jong Un came to power he has had over 400 monuments built to honor his father and grandfather. Most of these have been mosaics and there will be inspections to find out if others were built by corrupt officials and are in danger of collapse. Omens like this must be avoided at all costs. 

 

The current crisis (not enough food, fuel or hard currency) has led North Korea to put more pressure on its diplomats to come up with scams to raise cash. North Korean diplomats in Pakistan have, for example, made quite a business selling liquor in a country where sale of alcoholic beverages is very restricted and highly taxed. The North Koreans import name brand stuff and bring it in via diplomatic pouch and sell it freely to anyone who will pay (a price lower than the official price). This is a highly profitable arrangement and the Pakistani government eventually found out. The North Korean diplomats deny everything and keep selling the booze. 

 

The U.S. has told North Korea that it will only resume food aid if the north will allow American officials to monitor the distribution. Food aid was halted in 2009 when North Korea expelled these observers. North Korea had been increasingly selling food aid to raise cash for imports (of weapons and luxury goods for the leadership). The north cannot do this with observers present and refuses to back off on this policy. 

 

April 24, 2013: South Korea and China have established a hot line to handle any crisis in North Korea that would require action by the two countries (war or collapse of the government up there). Despite the huge cost of unification to South Koreans (who have only become affluent in the last 30 years) the idea of uniting Korea is still popular in South Korea. China has reservations about this and the South Korean have been trying to work out an understanding to get China to approve unification. 

Such a deal is not unprecedented. In the 1950s Austria ended its post-World War II occupation and partition (into allies and Soviet zones) by promising the Russians that it would remain neutral forever (or, as it turned out, until the Soviet Union disappeared) if Soviet troops left. A similar deal is apparently attractive to the Chinese, or at least they are willing to quietly talk about it. South Korea is a major trading partner and any deal that solved the North Korean mess and got U.S. troops out of Korea appeals to many Chinese.

 

April 23, 2013: North Korea demanded that it receive official recognition as a country equipped with nuclear weapons. The U.S., and most of the rest of the world, dismissed that claim out of hand. As far as anyone can tell North Korean nuclear weapons are crude and, for all practical purposes have not completed development into real weapons. At the same time North Korea has denounced a treaty it signed in 2005 where it agreed to halt nuclear weapons development in return for economic aid. The North Koreans apparently never had any intention of abiding by that deal and now say they will never give up their nukes. 

 

April 21, 2013: North Korea has appealed to Mongolia for food aid. Even before DNA analysis became possible Koreans knew they had links to Mongols and Turks and were quite proud of. The Korean language is related to those of Central Asia (the Ural-Altaic family of languages) not the Han family (Chinese, Tibetan and many others in East Asia). Subsequent DNA studies have confirmed these ethnic links and North Korea is hoping for a handout from Mongolia (which North Korea has long had good relations with). 

 

Iran confirmed that it is in negotiations to sell North Korea oil. This may be just to grab some media attention but the North Koreans may also be looking for some potential alternative source if their only current oil supplier (China) cuts them off or reduces shipments. The Chinese are not happy with North Korea’s self-destructive policies, especially their nuclear and ballistic missile programs. This oil import deal would never be allowed (by the West) to go forward because the North Koreans are broke and the one thing they do have to sell is a workable atomic bomb design. That could pay for a lot of oil, if Iran could deliver it.   

 

April 19, 2013: The U.S. reminded everyone (especially North Korea) that support for its ally South Korea includes the use, if necessary, of nuclear weapons. 

 

April 18, 2013: North Korea said that it will even start negotiations to defuse tensions in Korea until the world lifted all the sanctions imposed on them. The rest of the world told North Korea that the sanctions won’t be lifted until the north stops its nuclear weapons development program. 

 

April 17, 2013: South Korea has ordered 36 American AH-64 helicopter gunships 

 

April 16, 2013: North Korea threatened to retaliate militarily against South Korea if the South Korean government did not ban anti-North Korean demonstrations in the south. This threat led to more anti-North Korea demonstrations and no reaction from South Korean officials.

South Korea to build Thai navy frigate

The Royal Thai Navy has chosen a South Korean naval ship manufacturer to build a new frigate that will cost about 13 billion baht.

An RTN selection committee announced on Friday it had chosen Daewoo Shipbuilding and Marine Engineering to manufacture the frigate, a navy source said.

The company was one of the last two South Korean firms to enter the final round of the bid organised by the RTN panel.

The other three foreign firms ousted from the previous rounds were from Spain, Italy and China.

RTN chief of staff Chakchai Phucharoenyot, who chaired the panel, said Daewoo Shipbuilding and Marine Engineering was selected because it had proposed specifications for the frigate that were in line with the navy's demands.

The navy also asked the company to manufacture a Combat Management System (CMS) which can be allied to the systems installed in the frigates HTMS Naresuan and HTMS Taksin, he said.

The frigate, which will be the first South Korean-manufactured navy ship in Thailand, is expected to be commissioned in two years' time, Adm Chakchai said.

The new frigate will have a displacement of between 3,000 and 4,000 tonnes.

The cabinet earlier approved the RTN's procurement of two frigates with a budget of 30 billion baht. The frigates will be considered for manufacturing one by one.

According to the navy source, the RTN preferred European frigates but they were too expensive.

Meanwhile, a Defence Ministry source revealed that Defence Minister Sukumpol Suwanatat will lead military top brass on a visit to Russia between Tuesday and next Monday to bolster military ties.

Thai delegates will inspect the armaments industry in Russia, the source said.

S.Korea to Buy Bunker-Buster Missiles from Europe

South Korea will likely buy European long-range air-to-surface cruise missiles by 2014. Launched from the air above Daejeon, the Taurus KEPD 350s could hit an underground bunker in Pyongyang with precision.

A military officer said Wednesday price negotiations with Taurus Systems, a German-Swedish joint venture, will start soon since the missile has found favor with the brass here.

The Taurus would be the first strategic weapon Seoul has imported from Europe rather than the U.S.

The only long-range missiles in the Air Force's inventory are 40-odd SLAM-ER missiles with a range of 278 km, which were made by Boeing. An Air Force officer said, "We urgently need more long-range air-to-surface missiles due to the mounting nuclear threat and the increasing possibility of provocations from North Korea."

The Taurus has a range of 500 km. Launched from South Korean airspace that is not under threat from North Korean surface-to-air missiles, they could hit strategic targets like nuclear and missile bases in the rear with precision.

The country is expected to buy about 200 of them, to be mounted on F-15K or KF-16 fighter jets.

The Taurus has a dual-stage "blast/fragmentation" and/or "penetrator" warhead capable of penetrating up to 6 m of reinforced concrete. It is very accurate: despite a range of hundreds of kilometers, it has an error rate of a mere 2 to 3 m.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Defense Department said it has deployed another Aegis destroyer, the USS Decatur, to waters near the Korean Peninsula to guard against possible North Korean provocations.

Like the USS McCain, which was dispatched here earlier, the Decatur is an Arleigh Burke-class Aegis destroyer armed with SM-3 and Tomahawk cruise missiles that can intercept incoming ballistic missiles. It arrived in the western Pacific to "perform a missile defense mission," U.S. Defense Department spokesman George Little said.

North Korea's nationwide military drills loom next week amid threat

 Sang (file pic)

North Korea has started submarine drills and stepped up preparations for nationwide military exercises, which may be timed to coincide with annual joint drills by South Korea and the United States set to start next week, military sources said Wednesday.

   The latest move comes as Pyongyang has ratcheted up its hostile rhetoric against Seoul and Washington as the two allies last week launched a two-month field training exercise called Foal Eagle. Separately, joint forces will conduct computer-simulated drills named Key Resolve from March 11 to 21.

   On Tuesday, Pyongyang threatened to scrap the 1953 armistice that ended the Korean War, citing tensions over South Korean-U.S. joint military exercises and the United Nations' move to impose sanctions for its Feb. 12 nuclear test.

   A statement by the North's military said the armistice will be "completely" nullified from March 11, when Key Resolve gets into full swing in the South, warning a "precise" strike at any time.

   "North Korea's submarines have entered military maneuvers in the Yellow Sea and East Sea," a military source said, on the condition of anonymity. "This year's winter drill was more intense than in the past years and artillery exercises tripled."

   When President Park Geun-hye was sworn into office on Feb. 25, North Korea's artillery unit carried out firearm training targeting the South Korean capital Seoul, he said.

   The North will start large-scale drills across the nation from next week when South Korean and the U.S. troops start the two-week war game, another military source said, asking for anonymity.

   A large-scale firearm drill will be held near the east coastal city of Wonsan, while nationwide military maneuvers will be carried out, the source said.

   According to multiple military sources, the North has recently declared a "no-fly zone" in the west and the east of the Korean Peninsula during the May 11-20 Key Resolve training period, fueling speculation that it may fire off missiles. Seoul's defense ministry declined to comment.

   In the past, Pyongyang had declared no-fly zones before it fired short-range missiles or conducted maritime firing drills.

   "As (North Korea's) army, navy and air force are preparing a large-scale firearm training near Wonsan, the no-fly zone may be aimed at maritime or air firing drills," a third source said. "But we don't exclude a possibility of a missile launch."

   In response to the North's latest military movement, South Korea has stepped up its military readiness and surveillance to counter any North Korean provocations during the training period, the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said.

   In a statement, the South Korean military on Wednesday said that if the North provokes the South again, it will "strongly and sternly" punish the North Korean leadership, not to mention the origin of the provocation and its supporting forces.

   "If North Korea goes ahead with provocations and threatens the lives and safety of South Koreans, our military will strongly and sternly retaliate against the command and its supporting forces," said the statement read by Army. Maj. Gen. Kim Yong-hyun, a senior official at the Joint Chiefs of Staff, in a press conference. "We want to make it clear that (our military) has made all preparations to do that."

   Seoul and Washington said the annual drills are defensive in nature, but the communist nation has always denounced them as a rehearsal for a northward U.S. invasion aimed at toppling its communist regime.

   About 28,500 U.S. troops are stationed in South Korea.

North Korea shipped missile parts to Syria

North Korea tried to export ballistic missile parts to Syria in May in violation of UN sanctions, Japanese media said Wednesday, citing diplomats who have seen a classified UN report.

South Korean authorities inspected North Korean cargo bound for Syria and confiscated hundreds of cylinders that could be used to build the weapons, the Asahi Shimbun said.

Seoul in June reported the discovery to the United Nation's North Korea sanctions committee, which then dispatched experts to South Korea to inspect the materials, the liberal daily said.

If confirmed, the reported action shows Pyongyang violated UN bans on trading military- and weapons-related materials, imposed successively since 2006 after nuclear tests by the secretive regime.

The 445 graphite cylinders were on a Chinese-registered freighter with a cargo bound for a Syrian company with North Korean links, Kyodo News said, citing UN diplomats.

The Asahi said South Korea confiscated 535 cylinders, disguised as lead pipes that would have no connection to ballistic missiles.

The finding was included in a report filed this month to members of a special committee that is charged with overseeing the implementation of sanctions imposed on North Korea, Kyodo said.

The apparent attempt at arms exports came shortly after the UN Security Council adopted a presidential statement calling for tougher sanctions against Pyongyang, which in April attempted but failed to launch a satellite.

The launch was widely seen by other nations as cover for a missile test.

The graphite cylinders found aboard the cargo ship Xin Yan Tai in South Korea's Busan port could be used for rocket nozzles and re-entry vehicle nose tips, Kyodo said.

The ship, registered in Shanghai, was built in 2005 and is owned by a Shanghai shipping company, Kyodo said, citing the China Classification Society of vessels.

The Shanghai firm's involvement in the case could pose a question over China's commitment to implementing sanctions on North Korea, Kyodo added.

The interim report was prepared by a panel of experts from the five permanent members of the Security Council, Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States, as well as Japan and South Korea, Kyodo said.

Arms race explodes as neighbours try to counter China

An arms-buying spree across south-east Asia will be the elephant in the room when almost 20 world leaders meet in the Cambodian capital, Phnom Penh, on Tuesday.

Defence spending across the region increased 13.5 per cent to $US25.4 billion ($24.5 billion) last year and was expected to rise to $US40 billion by 2016, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute said.

Flush with economic success and wary of China's military expansion, countries are acquiring sophisticated sea- and air-based arsenals that include dozens of submarines that can operate in secret.

The institute said Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia had increased defence budgets by 66 per cent to 82 per cent from 2002 to last year.

 Indonesia was buying submarines from South Korea and coastal radar systems from China and the US, Vietnam was getting submarines and combat jets from Russia and had acquired Israeli ballistic missiles, defence analysts said.

Vietnam's defence budget for this year is $US3.1 billion, a rise of 35 per cent over last year. The Philippines has a huge wish-list of equipment it wants from the US and is also approaching Japan, South Korea, France and Britain for defence acquisitions.

Singapore, already the fifth-largest weapons importing nation, looked like keeping its title as the region's biggest spender, allocating $US9.7 billion this year on defence, 24 per cent of its national budget. The city-state's purchases included combat jets from the US and submarines from Sweden.

Thailand was planning to buy submarines and warplanes from Sweden that would eventually be fitted with anti-ship missiles, while arms deliveries to Malaysia jumped eightfold over the five years to 2009.

For decades, much of south-east Asia spent little on weapons except guns and tanks to respond to internal threats. But they are now building their defence capabilities amid tensions over territorial claims in the South China Sea and other squabbles that underscore the role of the East Asia Summit.

Leaders attending include the US President, Barack Obama, the Chinese Premier, Wen Jiabao, and the Australian Prime Minister, Julia Gillard.

Defence officials estimated 86 submarines would be added to regional fleets by 2020, 30 of which would belong to China, which already had the most.

Some Chinese nuclear submarines were expected to carry 12 sea-launched ballistic missiles and could eventually be equipped with multiple warheads.

A south-east Asia analyst from the Australian Defence Force Academy at the University of NSW, Carl Thayer, said the ''deployment of nuclear submarines, including ballistic missile submarines, will introduce a new geostrategic dimension to the regional balance of power''.

Professor Thayer said Chinese nuclear submarine deployments would attract continuing attention from the US Navy. He warned the arms buying spree could have a destabilising impact on regional security.

In a paper delivered in Vietnam at the weekend, Professor Thayer says ''south-east Asia is ripe for rivalry - but not armed conflict - due to the strategic mistrust between a rising and increasingly militarily powerful China and a US committed to maintaining the present balance of power''.

Senior US officials said Mr Obama's trip to Cambodia, the first by a US president, would reinforce the ''pivot'' of US security forces to Asia and the Pacific. The strategy is seen as a counterweight to China, which is aggressively asserting its claim to almost all the South China Sea. Parts of the area are also claimed by the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia and Vietnam.

In his paper, Professor Thayer says the ''most disturbing'' trend in defence spending is China's growing reliance on citizen fishing fleets and paramilitary forces gathering in a disputed area to assert Chinese jurisdiction.

 

Israel mulls purchasing 4 South Korean warships

A South Korean Incheon class frigate

 Israel has voiced enthusiasm in purchasing four frigates from South Korea and plans to send a team of its officials to Seoul next month to pursue a potential deal.

"Israel recently expressed an interest to buy four frigates," Yonhap news agency quoted an official at South Korean’s state-run weapons procurement agency, Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA), as saying Saturday on condition of anonymity.

The 1,400-ton frigates under negotiation with Israel are said to be priced at about US$100 million each.

South Korea offered to build warships for the Israeli navy after it lost a bid to sell Israel T-50 fighter trainer jets earlier this year.

A team of representatives from the South Korean government and Hyundai Shipyards visited Tel Aviv in April to discuss a deal aimed at building frigates for the Israeli navy.

There are reports that Hyundai would sell Israel the vessels, and that various Israeli defense industries would install locally-made systems on board, including radar and Barak anti-missile system.

Some of the work could be done by the Israel Shipyards in the city of Haifa, located about 90 kilometers (56 miles) north of Tel Aviv.

PAC-2 Missiles Flunk Intercept Test

South Korea's PAC-2 ballistic missiles have an intercept rate of less than 40 percent, according to joint South Korean-U.S. research released Sunday. The military is looking at buying PAC-3 missiles from the U.S. to make up for the deficiency.

The PAC-2 missile was developed as an anti-aircraft missile in the U.S. in 1990. It can approach targets at an altitude lower than 15 km and destroy them by detonating sub-missiles. Its poor accuracy has been a source of grief since the first Gulf War in 1991.

An upgraded version of the PAC-2 which South Korea bought is also incapable of perfectly destroying the warhead of an incoming missile, a Defense Ministry official admitted.

The PAC-3

Unlike the PAC-2, the PAC-3 is a "hit-to-kill" interceptor capable of striking an incoming missile at altitudes of up to 30 km. It supposedly causes no damage on the ground since it destroys the payload high up in the air.

Defense Minister Kim Kwan-jin told reporters after the recent Seoul-Washington Security Consultative Meeting that a PAC-3 system is in the pipeline.

The plan could cause controversy since it could technically mean that South Korea falls under the U.S. missile defense shield, which it has been trying to stay out of for fear of annoying neighbors like China.

"We need to join part of the U.S.' command, control, communications, computers and information system to share U.S. intelligence on North Korea's nuclear weapons and missiles," a government official said. "Sharing information or introducing the PAC-3 doesn't necessarily mean joining the U.S. missile defense system."

Then there is the cost. It reportedly cost the military about W1 trillion (US$1=W1,097) to buy 48 second-hand PAC-2 missiles from Germany since 2008, and at least W3 trillion would be needed to build a similar system with PAC-3 missiles.

Meanwhile, some experts suspect that Washington pressured Seoul to buy PAC-3 missiles in return for allowing it to extend its missile range from 300 km to 800 km in a recent agreement.

Korea to Boost Naval Capacity Amid Regional Arms Race

The Navy plans to build nine 3,000-ton class KSS-III submarines for deployment in 2020, it said Thursday. The government has set aside W2.7 trillion (US$1=W1,104) for the project.

"Submarines have to be at least 3,000 tons if they are to execute seaborne operations efficiently," said a Navy officer. "We decided to boost our submarine capacities to strengthen strategic deterrence and mobility."

The Navy also plans to boost its procurement target for 1,800-ton class subs to nine by 2018 in order to protect cargo ships and assist in naval operations. At present, Korea has 10 submarines in the 1,200-ton and 1,800-ton class.

The Navy also wants to increase its procurement target for 7,600-ton Aegis destroyers from three to six and build six to nine more next-generation KDDX naval destroyers after 2023.

"According to a study by the Defense Acquisition Program Administration, we would need at least three naval task force units in order to deal with a conflict in Dokdo and Ieo Island," said one Navy source. "We have to bolster our naval capacity to meet these needs."

 One naval task force unit consists of two Aegis destroyers, two Korean-type destroyers, two 3,000-ton subs, one transport vessel, 16 helicopters, three aerial surveillance aircraft and one logistics ship. At present, Korea has only one such unit.

According to IHS Jane's Defense weekly, Korea's naval warfare capacity is equivalent to only 16 percent of China's and 33 percent of Japan's. This could rise to 22 percent of China's and 49 percent of Japan's by 2020.

"We urgently need to bolster our naval warfare capacity, but the problem is money," said one government official. A 3,000-ton class sub costs around W1 trillion. DAPA projects it would cost at least W8.4 trillion to build three naval task force units.

Navy Chief of Staff Choi Yoon-hee told a National Assembly audit on Thursday it would take 10 to 20 years to put together three to four such units.

The Navy also projects a shortfall of around 3,400 sailors and has asked the Defense Ministry to bolster its manpower in stages until 2030. But the ministry apparently believes the Navy should maintain troop strength at the current 41,000