Ethiopia - The Kenyan Alliance

Ethiopia continues to congratulate itself on the peaceful (so far) transition of power following the death of Meles Zenawi in August. Meles ruled Ethiopia for 21 years. Ethiopia has also had a history of very violent power transitions. The new prime minister, Hailemariam Desalegn, was Meles picked successor, so he arrived with the mantle of authority. Meles made Hailemariam his second-in-command in 2010, and in retrospect it appears Meles had a power transfer plan in mind. Ethiopia has new national elections in 2015.

October 20, 2012: The African Union peacekeeping operation Somalia (AMISOM) is touting the seizure of the Somali port of Kismayo as a victory but one that does not signal the defeat of the Somali Al Shabaab Islamist militia. The Kenyan military performed extremely well in the latter phases of the attack on the port and Kenyans are proud of the Kenya Defense Force’s (KDF) achievements. However, diplomats in the Horn of Africa know the real victor in Somalia is Ethiopia. The Kenyans were more acceptable military interveners than the Ethiopians, because so many Somalis regard the Ethiopians as invaders, even if a large of majority of Somalis oppose Al Shabaab. Ethiopia is the geographic nexus of the horn. It borders on Sudan, South Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, and Kenya. It is also the region’s economic powerhouse. Ethiopia’s alliance with Kenya gives it a reliable security partner in the Horn. Trouble with Islamist Sudan (northern Sudan) brought Kenya and Ethiopia together. Tribal disturbances along the Kenya-Ethiopia border forced their governments to work together on bi-lateral security issues. The Somali experience, however, has sealed that alliance. (Austin Bay)

October 18, 2012: Peace negotiations between Ethiopia and the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) have broken down again. Kenya was serving as the mediator in the newest round of talks. The ONLF said that Ethiopia had demanded that the rebel group recognize the authority of the Ethiopian constitution as a pre-condition for talks. The ONLF said that the condition was unacceptable because the talks were supposed to begin without pre-conditions. There is a Kismayo connection to the talks. Many ethnic Ogaden Somalis live in Kismayo and surrounding areas. Kenya had hoped that positive negotiations between the ONLF and Ethiopia would help improve political cooperation among Ogaden clans in southern Somalia.

October 17, 2012: A grenade attack in Coast state wounded ten Kenyan policemen. The policemen were searching a house and had found a weapons cache. Police attributed the grenade attack to the Somali Al Shabaab. Kenyan authorities believe Al Shabaab is responsible for several grenade attacks and shootings in Coast state that have occurred this year.

October 16, 2012: Somali government and Kenyan military forces said that they are confronting a security vacuum in the city of Kismayo. Somali forces have arrested several dozen suspected Al Shabaab fighters in the port city.

Kenya charged Sheik Mohammed Dor with inciting violence in the country. Dor is a member of parliament and represents a Muslim area. Dor denied the charges. He is also accused of supporting the Mombasa Republican Council (MRC). The MRC is a separatist organization which favors secession for the Coast province.

October 15, 2012: A Kenyan municipal leader was hacked to death in the Coast province town of Kwale. Police called the man’s murder a revenge slaying for the arrest Mombasa Republican Council (MRC) leader, Omar Mwanbyadzi. A gunfight broke out when police arrested Mwanbyadzi and two people died in the firefight.

October 14, 2012: Kenya held ceremonies commemorating Kenya Defense Forces Day. This is also the first anniversary of Kenya’s intervention in Somalia.

October 12, 2012: Al Shabaab has threatened Kenya with further retribution for its involvement in Somalia. An Al Shabaab spokesman vowed to wage war on Kenyan soil.

October 11, 2012: Ethiopian troops in armored vehicle and trucks are reportedly massed in the Somali border town of Luq. A Somali National Army (SNA) commander reported that the Ethiopian soldiers are preparing for a major offensive on Al Shabaab controlled territory.

October 9, 2012: Kenya claimed that its military forces killed over 3,000 Al Shabaab fighters since it intervened in Somalia in October 2011. Kenya lost 22 soldiers in Somalia.

Ethiopia released 75 Eritreans captured in March during a cross border raid on a military camp. The prisoners were Eritrean soldiers and Ethiopia held them as prisoners of war. Seven of the released Eritrean applied for political asylum in Ethiopia.

October 2, 2012: AMISOM units extended their control over the Somali port of Kismayo. Al Shabaab fighters claimed they set off a bomb in the port. They also said they would launch further attacks on AMISOM soldiers. The Somali government estimated the Al Shabaab still has between 4,000 and 5,000 fighters in southern Somalia.

October 1, 2012: Kenyan naval vessels shelled Al Shabaab coastal positions in the Kismayo area as sporadic fighting continued in the area.

Somalia - Kismayo Falls To Amphibious Assault

Kenyan and government troops have entered Kismayo, facing light resistance. Most of the attackers began moving it at 2 AM from the land side. Some of the attacking Kenyans came in from the sea at night, landing on beaches and fighting surprised al Shabaab fighters camped nearby. Some al Shabaab fighters put up a fight, but most appear to have fled or gone into hiding. Losing control of Kismayo, and its port and airfield is a major blow to al Shabaab, who found the city a major source of income. Al Shabaab still controls large parts of rural central Somalia, but obtains less income from these areas. Cash keeps al Shabaab going and loss of income means fewer al Shabaab gunmen. Over 10,000 civilians had fled Kismayo in anticipation of the attack, and most of those will probably return soon. As these civilians fled the city over the last few weeks, they reported seeing hundreds of armed al Shabaab supporters heading into the city. These reinforcements did not put up much of a fight initially, but may go underground and wage a terror campaign, as was done in Mogadishu and other towns. The loss of Kismayo will probably lead to more desertions and factionalism within al Shabaab. The terrorist group has lost over a thousand members recently due to surrenders, defections and factions leaving the group. There are still a lot of Islamic radicals out there, but fewer of them follow orders from al Shabaab.

Several thousand additional peacekeepers will be sent to towns outside Mogadishu to help locally recruited troops and police keep the peace. There areas, away from the coasts, as the last bastions of al Shabaab support. Here, the Islamic radicals are defeated one village at a time. Often all it takes is for a hundred or so peacekeepers to make a deal with a village militia to confront the local al Shabaab gunmen. The al Shabaab guys can count and will usually flee if they decide the odds are against them. Those al Shabaab men are more likely to desert the Islamic radical cause, or surrender to the government and accept amnesty.

Pirate activity is way down. Ransoms paid so far this year are estimated at $30 million, which is a decline of over 70 percent from last year. The main reason for the sharp decline is the widespread use of armed guards on the large merchant ships that bring the biggest ransoms. The pirates have been quick to note that no ship with armed guards has been successfully attacked. The use of armed guards was long resisted, largely because of the fear that it would cause more violence. That has not happened, as the pirates do not press attacks on ships that fire back. The armed guards are usually professionals and have the advantage of height (and a more stable firing platform), better training and superior weapons. Shipping companies and others close to the situation warn that the pirates are not going out-of-business. The pirates are searching for new technology and tactics, and are trying to get larger ransoms for the few ships they do take. In other words, the pirates are not going away and neither should the anti-piracy effort. Meanwhile, a lot fewer Somalis are working for the pirate gangs, because there is less money to pay them.  Leaders of the anti-piracy operations believe that going after the financiers and people who supply the pirates with weapons and consumer goods is doing a lot of damage to the pirates. But it is understood that the piracy problem can be eliminated only once the ports the pirates operate from are shut down. That is not going to happen as long as the pirates are better armed and wealthier (and able to bribe officials) than what passes for local government (in most cases, Puntland).

After al Shabaab is eliminated from an area more foreign officials for aid groups can enter the country. These officials find themselves facing a nasty problem with how local aid officials, hired to distribute foreign aid, have used their positions to sell access to the aid and the refugee camps. These corrupt aid officials are often armed and have gunmen working for them.

September 26, 2012: Warships again bombarded al Shabaab targets in Kismayo.

September 24, 2012:  Al Shabaab threatened to assassinate all 274 remaining members of parliament. This threat came after the Islamic terror group took credit for killing a member of parliament on the 22nd. Ten days earlier al Shabaab launched an unsuccessful attempt to kill the new president.

September 23, 2012: Kenyan Air Force warplanes bombed the airport outside Kismayo, destroying buildings used by al Shabaab.

September 22, 2012:  Some 80 kilometers outside Mogadishu 200 al Shabaab members surrendered to peacekeepers.

September 20, 2012: Two suicide bombers attacked a restaurant popular with journalists, leaving fifteen dead (including three journalists.) Al Shabaab took credit for this attack. Al Shabaab has long killed journalists who criticized the Islamic radical group.

September 17, 2012: Kenyan and Somali troops kept advancing towards Kismayo and are now 40 kilometers from the port city. This appeared to spur several hundred al Shabaab men to flee Kismayo. Residents reported dozens of trucks and cars being used by some al Shabaab factions to leave.

Kenya police: Iranians shipped 100kg of explosives

Iranian nationals charged with preparing to commit acts intended to cause grievous harm to western targets.

Two Iranians accused of planning attacks on Western targets in Kenya shipped more than 100 kilograms of powerful explosive into this East African country, and most of it has not been recovered, a police officer told a court on Tuesday.

Iranian nationals Ahmad Abolfathi Mohammad and Sayed Mansour Mousavi are charged with preparing to commit acts intended to cause grievous harm after they were arrested last month and led officials to a 15-kilogram stash of the explosive RDX.

Police Sgt. Erick Opagal of Kenya's Anti-Terrorism Police Unit asked the court to deny the two suspects bail because more than 85 kilograms of the explosive authorities say was shipped into Kenya has not been found.

"The police have information that the [suspects] have a vast network in the country meant to execute explosive attacks against government installations, public gatherings and foreign establishments," Opagal said in an affidavit.

Granting bail would allow the suspects to continue planning attacks, he told the court.

Global terror

Officials say the two suspects may have been planning attacks on Israeli, U.S., British or Saudi Arabian interests in Kenya. Security officials believe the two are members of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Quds Force, an elite and secretive unit that acts against foreign interests.

Iranian agents are suspected in several successful or thwarted attacks, especially against Israeli interests, around the globe over the last year.

Several resorts on Kenya's coast are Israeli-owned, as is Nairobi's largest and newest shopping mall. Militants bombed an Israeli-owned luxury hotel near the coastal city of Mombasa in 2002, killing 13 people, and tried to shoot down an Israeli airliner. An Al-Qaida operative was linked to those attacks.

On June 12 the two Iranian suspects arrived in Kenya and traveled to Mombasa, Opagal's affidavit said, adding that they returned to Nairobi on June 16 after receiving the explosive from an accomplice who is still at large. Opagal said that after their arrest on June 19 in Nairobi they led officers to some of the explosives hidden at a Mombasa golf course.

One of the Iranian's lawyers, David Kirimi, said on Tuesday that the prosecution was "blowing the matter out of proportion." He said his clients were sickly men, one with a liver condition and the other a heart ailment, and their detention was further damaging their health.

Kirimi said they were civil servants in Iran who were in Kenya on tourist visas.

Magistrate Paul Biwott said he would rule on the bail application on Monday.

Five Iranian scientists with links to Tehran's nuclear program have been killed in the last two years, according to Iran by Israel as well as U.S. and British intelligence agencies. In return, Israel blames Iran for alleged reprisal missions on Israeli property and personnel overseas.

Officials: Iranians targeted sites in Kenya

Two Iranians who led authorities to a cache of explosives after their arrest planned to attack Israeli, U.S., British or Saudi targets inside Kenya.

 The two are believed to be members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Quds Force, an elite and secretive unit that acts against foreign interests, one of the officials said.

The foiled attack appeared to fit into a global pattern of alleged plots by Iranian agents. Previous plots were uncovered in the U.S. — against Saudi Arabia’s ambassador — as well as in Thailand, Azerbaijan and India.

Kenyan security forces arrested the Iranians on June 19 and were then led to 15 kilograms (33 pounds) of RDX, a powerful explosive that could have been used against multiple targets or concentrated in one large bomb. If used together, the explosives could have leveled a medium-sized hotel, officials told AP. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the investigation.

The two suspects — Ahmad Abolfathi Mohammad and Sayed Mansour Mousavi — appeared in a Kenyan court last week, where Mohammad said he had been interrogated by Israeli agents. Israel’s embassy said it had no comment.

In Israel, the office of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told the AP that “there are no limits to the Iranian terror.”

“After Iran sent its people to assassinate the Saudi ambassador on American soil and carry out attacks in Azerbaijan, Bangkok, Tbilisi and New Delhi, now its intention to carry out attacks in Africa is revealed. The international community needs to fight the world’s greatest exporter of terror,” said a statement from Netanyahu’s office.

Given the previous alleged plots against Israeli interests overseas, it appeared likely that Israeli properties in Kenya were the likely primary targets, said one of the two officials, a Western diplomat.

Anthony Cordesman, a Middle East expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the alleged plot fits into a pattern of Iranian actions against Israel.

Israel wants Iran to be prevented from developing a nuclear weapon. Tehran insists its nuclear activities are for peaceful purposes only, such as generating electricity and medical research.

Five Iranian scientists with links to Tehran’s nuclear program have been killed in the last two years, and Iran has blamed Israel — as well as U.S. and British intelligence agencies — for the attacks. In return, Israel blames Iran for alleged reprisal missions on Israeli property and personnel overseas.

Iran has denied any links to attacks outside its borders.

“It is much more likely if they were to do anything in Africa that they would try to find Israeli targets rather than U.S., British or Saudi targets,” Cordesman said. “The reason basically is that to some extent, there is an al-Quds operation against Israel, which is a reprisal to Israeli attacks on Iranian physicists and scientists.”

Several resorts on Kenya’s coast are Israeli-owned, as is Nairobi’s largest and newest shopping mall. Militants in 2002 bombed an Israeli-owned luxury hotel near the coastal city of Mombasa, killing 13 people. The militants also tried to shoot down an Israeli airliner at the same time. An al-Qaida operative was linked to those attacks.

Representatives at the U.S. Embassy, the British High Commission and the Israeli Embassy declined to comment on the latest arrests. Kenya’s government spokesman did not answer phone calls or text messages seeking comment.

Investigators believe that if the Iranian plot had been successful, suspicion would have naturally fallen not on Iran but instead on the al-Qaida-linked Somali militant group al-Shabab. Al-Shabab has threatened to bring Nairobi’s skyscrapers to the ground following Kenya’s military push into Somalia last year.

Militants — most likely from Somalia — have pulled off small-scale attacks in Kenya in the last year, including kidnappings, grenade attacks and a bombing in downtown Nairobi that peeled back the roof of a building.

It is unlikely the Iranians were working in concert with al-Shabab because the two groups come from two different branches of Islam and don’t normally cooperate.

The advanced explosives the Iranians had and their links to the Quds Force would indicate the mission in Kenya was cleared by the highest levels inside Iran’s government, the two officials who spoke to the AP said.

Cordesman said it’s not clear how much central direction Quds operatives receive from top Iranian leaders.

The two Iranians were arrested in Kenya’s capital, Nairobi, but led investigators to the explosives in Mombasa. Mohammad said in court last week that he and Mousavi were injected with an unknown substance against their will. The Kenyan magistrate ordered the allegation to be investigated.

Prosecutors said in their charge sheet that the two had explosives “in circumstances that indicated they were armed with the intent to commit a felony, namely, acts intended to cause grievous harm.”

Despite the threats that the Iranian agents appeared to pose, the Kenyan government has not directly commented on the arrests or the discovery of the explosives.

Yusuf Haji, Kenya’s acting internal security minister and current defense minister, was asked at a news conference Friday about the case, but he said the issue was “sensitive” and that he had no comment while the court case was ongoing. Haji said more information would be revealed when the prosecution presents its evidence.

Kenyan officials have an economic incentive to treat the case delicately. Kenya’s Business Daily reported Monday that Tehran and Nairobi will sign oil contracts next month despite the risk of sanctions for buying Iranian oil. Iran’s first vice president visited Kenya in May.

David Kirimi, a lawyer who represents the Iranians, said in court last week that their arrests could harm relations between Kenya and Iran. The prosecutor said he was pressing a case against a specific crime and was not concerned with diplomacy.

Mohammad alleged in court that — in addition to the injection — he was tortured, although he described only difficult living conditions, such as having to sleep on a cement floor.

Other overseas plots believed to have been carried out by Iranian agents include bomb plans in Thailand, an attack against the wife of an Israeli diplomat in India, and the targeting of Israeli teachers at a Jewish school in Azerbaijan.

Kenya official: Iranian agents planned attack against Israeli, U.S. targets

Keyan officials say Ahmad Abolfathi Mohammad, Sayed Mansour, who were arrested with 15 kilograms of explosives, are members of the elite unit of Iran's Revolutionary Guards.

A Kenyan policewoman escorting two Iranian nationals Sayed Mansour Mousavi, left, and Ahmed Abolfathi Mohammed, right, in the Nairobi magistrate court in Nairobi, Kenya, Wednesday, June. 27, 2012. (SW: note that a woman is in charge them - very unislamic!)

Officials in Kenya said on Monday that two Iranian agents arrested with explosives planned to attack Israeli, American, British or Saudi Arabian targets inside Kenya.

The officials said that the plot appears to fit into a global pattern of attacks or attempted attacks by Iranian agents, mostly against Israeli interests.

Kenyan security forces arrested Ahmad Abolfathi Mohammad and Sayed Mansour Mousavi last week with 15 kilograms of RDX, a powerful explosive, in the coastal city of Mombasa. Several hotels on the coast are Israeli-owned.

One official said the Iranians are members of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Quds Force, an elite and secretive unit. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were discussing security issues.

Last week, one of the two Iranians facing charges in Kenya told the Kenyan court that he had been interrogated by Israeli agents while in detention.

Mohammad on Wednesday said the two were interrogated by Israeli agents, a claim that, if true, would suggest security officials believe the Iranians might have been targeting an Israeli-owned property. Iranian agents are suspected in several attacks or thwarted attacks around the globe over the last year, including in Azerbaijan, Thailand and India. Most of the plots had connections to Israeli targets.

Several resorts on Kenya’s coast are Israeli-owned. Militants in 2002 bombed an Israeli-owned luxury hotel near Mombasa, killing 13 people. The militants also tried to shoot down an Israeli airliner at the same time. An al-Qaida operative was linked to those attacks.

Israel’s deputy ambassador to Kenya, Yaki Lopez, told The Associated Press on Wednesday that “this whole incident is an internal Kenyan issue.” He said he had no further comment, including on whether Israeli agents were involved in interrogations.

Human rights lawyers say interrogations of suspects by foreign security agents in Kenya are unconstitutional unless the suspects will also be taken to face charges in the foreign country.

Mohammad also told the court he was tortured in Kenyan custody. He said he went without food for long periods and that he was forced to sleep on a cement floor with only his jacket to keep him warm. Police prosecutor Daniel Musangi denied the accusations that the suspects were tortured. Magistrate Paul Biwott said the allegations were serious and ordered an investigation.

Days after the arrest of the Iranians, the U.S. government, citing information about an imminent terrorist attack, withdrew its government workers from Mombasa and issued an alert last Friday warning against non-essential travel to Kenya’s second largest city. But the warning may not have been linked to the Iranians. On Sunday attackers carried out a grenade and gunfire attack on a bar outside Mombasa, killing three people and wounding 25.

Kenya has seen a spate of attacks in recent months following the country’s decision last October to send troops into neighboring Somalia to fight al-Shabab militants. However, al-Shabab and its partner organization al-Qaida have not traditionally used Iranian operatives in its operations.

The two Iranians were charged Monday. Prosecutors say they were possession of explosives known as RDX “in circumstances that indicated they were armed with the intent to commit a felony namely, acts intended to cause grievous harm.”

RDX is a powerful military-grade explosive. They denied both charges and through a translator asked for bond.

On Wednesday, lawyer David Kirimi, who represents Mohammad and Mousavi, argued that the two suspects are investors and their arrests will harm Kenya-Iran relations. But Biwott dismissed that argument, citing the magnitude of the accusations. Musangi, the police prosecutor, said the two were likely to flee if released.