US Ospreys and Air Tankers Put Iran in Israel's Reach

The United States plans to give Israel weapons that would enable it to send ground forces against Iranian nuclear facilities that it can’t penetrate from the air.

The deal includes air-refueling aircraft, advanced radars for F-15 fighter jets, and up to eight V-22 Ospreys, an aircraft that can land like a helicopter and carry two dozen special operations forces with their gear over long distances at aircraft speeds.

The Osprey “is the ideal platform for sending Israeli special forces into Iran,” says Kenneth Pollack, a former CIA analyst now at the Brookings Institution’s Saban Center for Middle East Policy.

The aircraft could help solve Israel’s inability to breach Iran’s uranium enrichment facility buried under a granite mountain at Fordow. It might be impregnable to even the heaviest conventional bunker-busting munitions in the U.S. arsenal, Pollack said. Israeli military planners have been brainstorming how to conduct an effective operation, Pollack said, citing conversations with senior Israeli military officers.

“One of the possibilities is (Israel) would use special forces to assault the Fordow facility and blow it up,” Pollack said.

The weapons deal would be part of a military aid package for Israel that includes $1 billion for up to eight V-22 tilt-rotors; $500 million to retrofit radars into F-15 fighters and another $1 billion for a variety of air-to-ground weapons. Additional details about the U.S.-financed deal were revealed during a visit to Washington by Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon on June 15.

The State Department said discussions of the arms deal are ongoing.

Secretary of State John Kerry on Thursday had a working dinner with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem and will visit with Israeli, Palestinian and Jordanian officials through Saturday, discussing broad regional issues and the peace process.

Jonathan Schanzer, executive director of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, said the arms package was part of an Israeli wish list including some items that were not discussed publicly to help it keep amilitary edge over other nations in the region and for possible operations against Iran.

Israel’s air force would be hard-pressed to cause lasting damage to the Iranian nuclear program because it cannot sustain long-term bombardment and has limited bunker-busting capabilities and limited air-refueling capabilities, said Kenneth Katzman, who co-wrote the 2012 report “Israel: Possible military strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities” for the Congressional Research Service.

When he first announced the deal during a visit to Israel in April, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said the Ospreys would provide Israel with high-speed maritime search-and rescue-capabilities.

Yaalon said the arms sale would send a message to Israel’s chief adversary in the region.

“Without a credible military option, there’s no chance the Iranian regime will realize it has to stop the militarynuclear project,” Yaalon said.

Other parts of the arms package include Boeing’s KC-135 “Stratotanker,” which can refuel Ospreys and other aircraft while airborne and extend the tilt-rotor aircraft’s 426-mile range almost indefinitely. The deal also includes anti-radiation missiles that are used to target air defense systems, and advanced radars for Israel’s fleet of F-15 fighter jets, according to a Defense Department press release.

That equipment would increase Israel’s capabilities against Iran, said Ely Karmon, a senior research scholar at the Institute for Counter-Terrorism at The Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya, Israel.

The refueling equipment would extend the reach of Israeli special forces, which could be used against Iran as they were in Israel’s attack on a Syrian nuclear facility under construction in 2007, Karmon said.

In the 2007 attack, at least one Israeli team was on the ground to provide laser targeting of sophisticated airmunitions, Karmon said. “The same would be done for Iranian sites.”

The Osprey also could be used for search-and-rescue operations if Israeli aircraft involved in a complex airoperation are shot down and pilots endangered, Karmon said.

Michael Rubin, an analyst for the American Enterprise Institute, said senior U.S. and Israeli bombers would do significant damage to Iran’s hardened sites by targeting the entrances, and Israel could use the Ospreys for missions other than Iran’s nuclear sites. Israel may want the ability to send troops to secure chemical facilities in remote regions of Syria or to block Iranian shipments bound for terrorists in the Gaza Strip, Sinai Peninsula or Lebanon, Rubin said.

“Sudan and Eritrea are floating the idea of building an Iranian naval base or shipping Iranian missiles to the Gaza Strip,” Rubin said, referring to the Palestinian territory controlled by the terrorist group Hamas. “If you wanted to disrupt such missiles in a convoy, you’d do it with an Osprey.”

The arms deal also sends a message to Iran and reassurance to Israel that the United States is serious about standing by the Jewish state, Karmon said.

Katzman said he doesn’t think the arms sale provides Israel with significant new capabilities that Israel did not already have. He said the overall defense package, which also includes advanced F-16 fighter jets for the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, Iran’s chief rivals in the Persian Gulf, is more “a symbolic move to show (American) resolve to Iran,” Katzman said.

South Korea Announces Evaluation of F-X Fighter Bids to Begin Next Week

South Korea’s primary defense acquisition agency, the Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA), announced that evaluations would begin next week to select the winning bid in the competition for a $7.3 billion contract for 60 advanced fighter aircraft. Previously submitted bids from three defense contractors were found to be lacking relevant details and were resubmitted, at South Korea’s request, on 5 July.

Lockheed Martin’s F-35 Lightning II, Boeing’s F-15SE Silent Eagle, and EADS’ Eurofighter Typhoon are all in competition for the multi-billion deal. The winning aircraft is intended as a replacement for the aging fighters now in South Korea’s inventory. In 2002, Seoul contracted to procure 60 Boeing F-15s as part of an extensive modernization effort and the present deal is a continuation of that program.

 F-15 ‘Silent Eagle’ flight demonstrator. South Korea is a leading partner in what is considered the final upgrade for the F-15.

A DAPA statement of 5 July announced that the bids would be evaluated “in accordance with due process.” The statement also guaranteed “fair competition” and a “thorough evaluation” to select the aircraft that “most benefits our national interest.”

According to DAPA, a hand-picked team of 15 expert analysts will review each of the three bids in an evaluation that assesses 300 different categories. These evaluations will review and grade the operational capability of the three contenders as well as their levels of compatibility and interoperability with existing South Korean forces. This assessment process is scheduled to be conducted between 9 and 14 July.

Beginning in late July, following the technical evaluation, an elite team of 45 Republic of Korea Air Force (ROKAF) experts will conduct flight tests designed to evaluate 500 performance features of the three competitors. These tests will further evaluate each aircraft’s performance and will measure how well they fit into the existing South Korean military framework and add measurable value to the nation’s warfighting capability.

DAPA announced in June that some evaluations would be performed on simulators since the F-35 Lightning II is still in development. EADS and Boeing are also working on enhancements to the Typhoon and the F-15SE as well.

In earlier statements, DAPA said that final selection of the next-generation fighter would be announced sometime in October. Now, DAPA admits that October is only an optimistic initial target date and the final selection may not be announced until early 2013. DAPA’s director of program management told reporters on 5 July that “the final decision may be put off until into the next administration,” indicating a date sometime in 2013.

 For the Eurofighter groop, FX3 provides an opportunity to bring their Typhoon back to the center stage, after losing the Indian MMRCA bid to Dassault. Photo: Cpl Babs Robinson, RAF

From a purely practical standpoint, the Eurofighter Typhoon is a long shot in this competition. However, EADS is highly motivated to nail this deal down having lost out in several recent high-value contracts. And, with India’s recent decision to buy the French Dassault Rafale, hope continues to spring eternal. With this in mind, it’s probable to suspect that EADS will heat up the competition with an offer that will be very difficult for Seoul to ignore. In EADS’ favor is the Typhoon’s proven performance record and the F-35’s lack of real-world experience.

Boeing’s F-15SE is a strong contender in this competition. The ROKAF currently operates F-16 Falcons and F-15K Slam Eagles as well as other American-made aircraft. South Korea has a long history of flying American aircraft dating back to the Korean Conflict. Saudi Arabia’s recent decision to go with a new variant of the F-15 also bodes well for Boeing. Boeing also is planning to introduce an attractive array of new enhancements to make the Eagle deadlier, stealthier, and more tempting since South Korean forces already have accumulated several years of experience operating the F-15.

As for the F-35 Lightning II, as advertised it is a dream machine of claimed performance that would be unmatched by any other fifth-generation combat aircraft in the world today. Although unproven and plagued by technical problems and cost overruns, the F-35 still has strong support from an impressive list of customer nations and still enjoys the backing of the United States. If the F-35 performs as designed, it would give Seoul an immense performance edge over Pyongyang and possibly even Beijing. Selecting the F-35 would also give South Korea a long-term warfighting machine that shares a common airframe with the US, Japan, Australia, and other Western nations. Weapon’s commonality and interoperability may also prove to be factors that weigh heavily in Lockheed Martin’s favor.

All three defense contractors have a lot riding on this competition. They all need orders to keep their combat aviation production lines humming along in a time of increasingly austere economic forecasts. Let the games begin.