The Philippine military plans air, naval bases at Subic with access for US

The Philippine military has revived plans to build new air and naval bases at Subic Bay, a former U.S. naval base that American forces could use to counter China's creeping presence in the disputed South China Sea, senior navy officials said.

The proposed bases in the Philippines, a close U.S. ally, coincides with a resurgence of U.S. warships, planes and personnel in the region as Washington turns its attention to a newly assertive China and shifts its foreign, economic and security policy towards Asia.

The bases would allow the Philippines to station warships and fighter jets just 124 nautical miles from Scarborough Shoal, a contentious area of the South China Sea now controlled by China after a tense standoff last year.

The Philippine Navy, whose resources and battle capabilities are no match for China's growing naval might, has yet to formally present its 10-billion-peso ($230 million) base development plan to President Benigno Aquino.

But senior officials say they believe it has a strong chance of winning approval as Aquino seeks to upgrade the country's decrepit forces.

The Philippine Congress last year approved $1.8 billion for military modernization, with the bulk going to acquisition of ships, aircraft and equipment such as radar. The military had raised the plan in the past, but is now pushing it with more urgency following a series of naval stand-offs with China.

"The chances of this plan taking off under President Aquino are high because his administration has been very supportive in terms of equipment upgrade," said a senior military officer who asked not to be identified.

"The people around him understood our needs and more importantly, what our country is facing at this time."

Subic, a deep-water port sheltered by jungle-clad mountains 80 km (50 miles) north of Manila, has been a special economic zone since U.S. forces were evicted in 1992, ending 94 years of American military presence in the Philippines and shutting the largest U.S. military installation in Southeast Asia.

Since then, American warships and planes have been allowed to visit the Philippines for maintenance and refuelling.

U.S. military "rotations" through the Philippines have become more frequent as Beijing grows more assertive in the South China Sea, a vast expanse of mineral-rich waters and vital sea lanes claimed entirely by China, Taiwan and Vietnam and in part by Malaysia, Brunei and the Philippines - one of Asia's biggest security flashpoints.

A 30-hectare (74-acre) area has been identified for the bases, which would station fighter jets and the Philippines' biggest warships that patrol the disputed sea, including two Hamilton-class cutter ships it acquired for free from the United States.

The plan has taken on added urgency since a tense two-month standoff last year between Chinese and Philippine ships at the Scarborough Shoal, which is only about 124 nautical miles off the Philippine coast. Chinese ships now control the shoal, often chasing away Filipino fishermen.

U.S. and Philippine navy ships begin war games near the shoal on Thursday.

The South China Sea dispute will again loom large over regional diplomacy next week when U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry joins his counterparts from Southeast Asian nations and China among other countries for an annual meeting in Brunei.

The Philippines plans to raise the issue of Chinese ships' "encroachment" near another disputed coral reef where Manila recently beefed up its small military presence, diplomatic sources told Reuters. China in turn has accused the Philippines of "illegal occupation" of the reef, which is a strategic gateway to an area believed to be rich in oil and natural gas.

RISE IN U.S. NAVY VISITS

There is no plan to allow the United States to rebuild its old bases, a sensitive issue in the Philippines where a nationalist backlash against the U.S. military helped lead to the 1992 closure of Subic and Clark Air Base.

New Philippine air and naval bases, however, would give visiting U.S. warships more security to launch operations in the South China Sea and elsewhere in Southeast Asia. A Visiting Forces Agreement, ratified by the Philippine Senate in 1999, allows U.S. forces full access to Philippine bases.

Roberto Garcia, chairman of the Subic Bay Metropolitan Authority (SBMA), which oversees the Subic Bay Freeport, confirmed the plan to build the new bases, saying he had shelved plans in the area for a theme park to make way for it.

"I don't see any problem if the government wants to build an air and naval base in the Freeport area," Garcia said, noting the increase in the number of U.S. military port calls to Subic.

This year alone, 72 U.S. warships and submarines visited Subic, compared with 88 for all of 2012, 54 in 2011 and 51 in 2010, according to official data.

The Philippine military also wants to revive an airstrip that once handled some of the largest military aircraft in the U.S. arsenal. The former Cubi Point Naval Air Station, carved out of a mountain adjoining Subic, served FedEx Corp FDX.N cargo plans after the U.S. forces withdrew.

But FedEx ceased operations at the airstrip, now called Subic Bay International Airport, in 2009. Two senior air force officers told Reuters the military had proposed to Aquino to convert parts of the airstrip into an air base.

Another Philippine navy officer said the arrival in a few weeks of a second Hamilton-class cutter from the United States would put pressure on the navy to find a suitable port for large warships.

Since 2002, U.S. forces helping fight al Qaeda-linked Islamist militants in the southern Philippines have shared several bases with Philippine troops. U.S. Navy surveillance planes are allocated spaces in a local air force base at Clark.

"We've seen a lot of similar 'joint use' arrangement. The U.S. does not want bases, only access," a Philippine navy captain familiar with the Subic proposal told Reuters.

"We will share our bases with them and I am sure the U.S. would love them."

China Has A Daring And Prudent Plan

Earlier this year pictures came out of China showing yet another stealth fighter prototype. This one is called the J-31 “Falcon Eagle” (from an inscription on the tail), and while it looks like the American F-22, it’s also smaller than China’s other stealth fighter (the J-20, which has already flown). The J-31 was built by the Shenyang Aircraft Corporation (which makes the J-11, the illegal Chinese copy of the Russian Su-27). The J-31 has some characteristics of the F-35 as well but appears more an attempt to match the F-22. It’s possible that the F-31 was a competing (with the J-20) design that lost out. That’s because the J-31 has not flown yet. Whatever the case, the J-31 is further evidence that China is determined to develop its own high tech military gear. While China is eager to develop advanced military technology locally, it recognizes that this takes time and more effort than nations new to this expect. Thus China is trying to avoid the mistakes Russia made in this area, and having competing designs and developing necessary supporting industries is part of that. All this takes a lot of time and involves lots of little (and some major) failures. The Chinese are doing it right and are willing to wait until they get military tech that is truly world class.

The other stealth fighter, the J-20, was made by CAC (Chengdu Aircraft Company), which also produced the JF-17 and J-10. The J-20 made its first flight over a year ago and several more since then. A second J-20 prototype has also been seen and first flew last May. While the J-20 looks like the American F-22 when viewed head on, it's overall shape, weight, and engine power is closer to the American F-15C. In other words, it's about 20 meters (62 feet) long, with a wing span of 13.3 meters (42 feet). J-20 has about the same wing area as the F-15C, which is about 25 percent less than the F-22 (which is a few percent larger than the F-15 in terms of length and wingspan). Worse, for the J-20, is the fact that its engine power is about the same as the F-15C, while the F-22 has 65 percent more power. With the afterburner turned on, the J-20 has more power than the F-15C and nearly as much as the F-22. But because the afterburner consumes so much fuel, you can't use more than a few minutes at a time. The F-22 is still one of only three aircraft (in service) that can supercruise (go faster than the speed of sound without using the afterburner). In addition to the F-22, the Eurofighter and the Gripen can also supercruise.

The J-20 has some stealthiness when it's coming at you head on. But from any other aspect, the J-20 will light up the radar screen. For this reason the J-20 is seen as a developmental aircraft, not the prototype of a new model headed for mass production. As such, it is only the fifth stealth fighter to fly, the others being the U.S. F-22 and F-35, plus the Russian T-50 and I.42. The older U.S. F-117 was actually a light bomber and the B-2 was obviously a heavy bomber. Based on recent Chinese warplane development projects (J-11 in particular), the J-20 has a long development road ahead of it and will likely change size and shape before it reaches the production design. The J-31 may be an insurance policy, in case the J-20 effort goes off the rails in a big way.

While the shape of the J-20 confers a degree of stealthiness (invisibility to radar), even more electronic invisibility comes from special materials covering the aircraft. It's not known how far along the Chinese are in creating, or stealing, these materials, or the needed engines. The current J-20 engines are sufficient for early flight tests but not capable of providing the supercruise, something that would be essential for the J-20. That's because China would most likely use the aircraft singly, or in small groups, to seek out and attack American carriers. As for F-22 class engines, that is being worked on. Two years ago China announced it was developing the WS-15 engine (since the 1990s), a more powerful beast well suited for the J-20. No date was given as to when the WS-15 would be available for use or whether it would have the same vectoring (ability to move the hot jet exhaust in different directions in order to make the fighter more maneuverable) the F-22 uses.

For the J-20 to be a superior fighter, it would need electronics (including radars and defense systems) on a par with the F-35 and F-22. So far, the Chinese have not caught up with stuff used by current American fighters. But the gap is being closed, faster than it was during the Cold War when the Russians were creating, or stealing, their way to military tech equivalence with the West. The Russians never made it but the Chinese believe they can succeed.

Work on the J-20 began in the late 1990s, and the Chinese knew that it could be 25 years or more before they had a competitive stealth fighter-bomber. The J-20 is being tested in central China. The twin engine J-20 appears to be about the same weight as the 30 ton F-15C. The F-35A is a 31 ton, single engine fighter, while the twin-engine F-22 is slightly larger at 38 tons. The Russian I.42 was a 42 ton aircraft and their T-50 weighed in at 37 tons.

China is also developing other support technologies, like the AESA radar, highly efficient cockpit, stealth, and software to tie everything together. Developing, or even copying, this tech is not easy. But the Chinese already know that, having decades of experience adapting stolen technology to their needs. Thus it appears that China is planning on having the J-20, in some form, ready for service by the end of the decade. The key factor is their ability to develop or steal the needed technology by then. The J-20 appears to be a fighter-bomber, as this kind of aircraft would be most useful dealing with the U.S. Navy and key targets in Taiwan or Japan. In any event, the J-20 is an attempt to develop some kind of 5th generation aircraft, complete with stealth.

The only other competitor in this area is Russia, where fifth generation fighter developments were halted when the Soviet Union disintegrated in 1991. Actually, all development work on new fighters, by everyone, slowed down in the 1990s. But work on the F-22, F-35, Eurofighter, and Rafale continued, and those aircraft became, in roughly that order, the most advanced fighter aircraft available today. MiG resumed work on the I.42 in the 1990s, but had to stop after a few years because of a lack of money. Sukhoi has never stopped working on its T-50, funded by much higher sales of its Su-27/30 fighters. This fifth generation may come to be called the "last generation," after they are replaced by the second generation of pilotless combat aircraft (counting armed Predators and the like as the first).

Hong Kong Garrison Grows

China is increasing the garrison it maintains in Hong Kong. In 1997 Hong Kong returned to Chinese control, after the 99 year lease Britain had on the territory was not renewed by China. Hong Kong was allowed to maintain some economic and administrative autonomy, but the police and military garrison are under the control of China.

Until recently the Hong Kong garrison consisted of one infantry brigade (three light and one mechanized infantry battalions), one artillery battery, one engineer battalion, one reconnaissance company (which also acts as a quick reaction force), an intelligence battalion, an armor company and some logistics units. The additions will include a Special Operations battalion, an air-defense battalion, a tank battalion and another engineer battalion.

The garrison is there to defend the city against internal unrest, more than external threats. For the troops, it's a choice assignment, as Hong Kong is a cool place to live if you are young (as most of the troops are) and have a place to stay (China took over the old British barracks and built some new military compounds.