How Dangerous is the S-300 Syria is About to Receive?

What are the implications of Moscow delivering S-300 air-defense systems to Syria, could one weapon system decide the outcome of the Syrian power struggle, is the Russian missile system as invincible as it is described? 

“The missile batteries would give Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime a powerful weapon against foreign air strikes” Eremenko comments, “one of the options being bounced around as a form of international intervention – and could fracture the fragile accord on Syria reached last week between Moscow and Washington, which hope to get the warring sides to negotiate.”

According to Eremenko, “Verifiable information about the S-300 deal is desperately scant: Was there a deal at all? What did it cover? Has any part of it been implemented? For now, what we know about the S-300 saga, from its origins to its implications, has been based on disappearing documents, anonymous sources, rumors, approximations and misunderstandings.”

Is there really a deal to sell Russian S-300 systems to Syria?

Technically, it’s all hearsay, according to Eremenko. The single evidence was a 2011 annual report by S-300’s manufacturer, the Nizhny Novgorod Machine Building Plant, which mentioned a contract for such missiles for Syria. However, the report has since vanished from the plant’s website. The Vedomosti business daily that commented about that story said the contract was worth $105 million and that an unspecified number of S-300 systems were slated for delivery between 2012 and early 2013. Based on the quoted price, the alleged contract would cover the infrastructure required for one battery only. (One S-300 missile system is estimated to cost some $115 million, the cost of each missile is over one million US$.)

Other reports commonly attributed to ‘western intelligence sources’ mention that Syria has ordered four S-300 batteries and 144 missiles, thus committing $900 million for such order. Deliveries of the hardware would commence by late summer. Other media sources reported initial shipments were made in December 2012. Russian official sources have stated that a contract covering the delivery of advanced air-defense systems to Syria has been signed two years ago.

 

Can the international community or any third parties affect the sale?

“The deal is strictly between Moscow and Damascus – which is to say, it’s all in the hands of Russian President Vladimir Putin,” Eremenko wrote, “all attempts to ban arms sales to Syria via the UN Security Council have been blocked by Russia. Of course, there is behind-the-scenes haggling and arm-twisting, but that’s unofficial.”

Why are the S-300s dangerous? They’ve been on the production line since 1978 – aren’t they outdated by now?

The S-300 systems have been modernized repeatedly to remain state-of-the-art airplane- and rocket-destruction machines. The S-300PMU2 Favorit can launch six missiles at once and engage 12 targets simultaneously, both at high and low altitude. The missile interceptors (effectors) used by the S-300 PMU2 outmaneuver any modern fighter, including F-16, F-15, F-18 and F-22, these missiles can also effectively hit cruise missiles at ranges of 40-70km. The same unit can also employ the latest 48N6E2 missiles to intercept short and medium range ballistic missiles that would be targeting the site. This missile having a maximum range of 195km is what makes the system ‘strategic’ When covered by by point defense missile systems, such as the SA-15 Tor or SA-22 Pantsir S1, an S-300 PMU2 would be virtually immune to standoff attack by precision guided weapons. The system is also designed to operate effectively even when subjected to severe countermeasures and electronic attack, which makes it especially difficult to suppress.

Who are the targets?

In addition to engaging fighter aircraft, cruise and ballistic missiles, the S-300 system will also pose acute danger to strategic assets flying well beyond the Syrian border, including Israeli or coalition support aircraft, airborne early warning, electronic warfare and monitoring or aerial refueling aircraft which are part of strike packages or aircraft supporting intelligence gathering and surveillance. “Any attempts by foreign powers to enforce a no-fly zone over Syria, as was done in Libya in 2011.” Eremenko wrote.

What’s the possible time frame? How long until Assad can shoot foreign fighter jets out of the sky?

The S-300 system deploys in five minutes – once it’s paid for, produced, tested, shipped, and manned by trained personnel. Novosti wrote, still, it would likely take a while before Damascus actually gets any missiles. However, there are few issues that would delay delivery. The manufacturer is unlikely to have ready-to-ship S-300 systems lying on the shelves: Whatever leftovers there were from a deal with Iran, scrapped in 2010, were long ago snatched up by other customers such as Algeria, according to Ruslan Pukhov of the Center for Analysis of Strategy and Technologies, a for-profit research group in Moscow. This means the systems would need to be produced and test launches conducted, a job that would take about a year, Pukhov said. “Furthermore, dozens or even hundreds of staff would have to be trained to operate the complicated machinery, which should take about six months. This would push Assad’s most optimistic deadline of owning fully operable S-300 complexes to November at best, with spring of 2014 being a more realistic estimate.”

According to Israel’s 1st TV news channel, Syrian soldiers have recently completed a two-month training on the S300 air-defense system in Russia. These crews are expected to become the lead cadre receiving the systems expected within two months in Syria. Israel is concerned about the possibility that the S300 systems will be manned by Russian troops in Syria. In the early 1970s Russian crews have maintained a full air-defense division in Egypt, assisting in defending the country from Israeli attacks during the War of Attrition that followed the Egyptian defeat in the Six Day War of 1967.

Unmoved by Israel, Russia will send top air-defense system to Assad

Moscow says it must honor its deal with Damascus, even though Netanyahu warned Putin that delivery of S-300 missiles could plunge the region into war

Undeterred by pleas and warnings from Israel, Russia made clear on Thursday that it will go ahead with its planned delivery of a highly sophisticated air-defense system to Syria’s President Bashar Assad. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly warned Russian President Vladimir Putin in an emergency face-to-face meeting on Tuesday that Moscow’s sale of the S-300 missile defense system to Assad could push the Middle East into war. 

But Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, evidently unmoved by the dramatic Israeli warning, declared on Thursday that while Moscow was “not signing any new deals,” it would honor existing contracts with Syria, including for the air-defense systems. “We’ve already carried out some of the deal,” Lavrov said, “and we will carry the rest of it out in full.”

A failure to honor signed contracts, Lavrov added in a television interview, would “harm the credibility” of Russia in other arms-sales contracts.

Lavrov’s statements indicated that Netanyahu’s mission to Russia — he flew to meet Putin, immediately after his return from China, for emergency talks in the Black Sea resort of Sochi — had failed. In their talks, Netanyahu reportedly told the Russian president that the S-300 had no relevance to Assad’s civil-war battles against rebel groups, and implored Moscow not to deliver the systems, Channel 2 reported.

He said that if acquired by Assad, the S-300 — a state-of-the-art system that can intercept fighter jets and cruise missiles — “is likely to draw us into a response, and could send the region deteriorating into war,” the Channel 2 report said.

On Thursday night, in response to Lavrov’s statements, Israeli officials were quoted by Channel 2 as saying that Jerusalem preferred not to describe Netanyahu’s mission as a failure, but acknowledged that Israel’s “situation would have been far better” if Putin had agreed to cancel the delivery. An Israeli source was quoted as saying that Netanyahu had told Putin the S-300s represent a weapons system that “shatters [Israel's] qualitative edge,” presumably since it would greatly constrain the Israeli air force’s freedom of movement above Syria and neighboring Lebanon.

The Israeli source was also quoted as saying that Israel would “firmly oppose” the transfer of S-300s to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Twice this month, Israel carried out air attacks in the Damascus area to blow up Fateh-110 ground-to-ground missile consignments en route to Hezbollah via Syria from Iran.

 Lavrov said recently that the S-300s were to help Syria defend itself against air attacks. Israel suspects that Russia will deliver to Assad six S-300 missile batteries, as well as 144 missiles, the Wall Street Journal reported last week.

At their brief joint press conference Tuesday, it was clear that Netanyahu and Putin had not reached agreement on how to grapple with the Syrian crisis.

The Russian president said that the only way to resolve the crisis was via “the soonest end to armed conflict and the beginning of political settlement.”

He added: “At this sensitive moment, it’s particularly important to avoid any action that could destabilize the situation.”

 

Netanyahu, however, said that the volatile situation in the Middle East requires action to improve security. “The region around us is very unstable and explosive, and therefore I am glad for the opportunity to examine together new ways to stabilize the area and bring security and stability to the area,” he said. The prime minister’s bottom line was that “Israel will do whatever it takes to defend its citizens.”

Russia has continued to ship weapons to Syria, despite the civil war there, but while it has reportedly delivered less-sophisticated air-defense systems, it refrained from providing Damascus with the S-300s, which have a range of up to 200 kilometers (125 miles), and the capability to track down and strike multiple targets simultaneously with lethal efficiency.

The weapon would mean a quantum leap in Syria’s air defense capability, including against neighboring countries.

Israel reportedly attacked suspected shipments of advanced Iranian weaponry — the Fateh-110 surface-to-surface missile — in Syria with back-to-back airstrikes this month. Israeli officials signaled there would be more attacks unless Syria refrains from trying to deliver such “game-changing” missiles to Hezbollah. Hezbollah said weapons shipments won’t cease.

On Wednesday, Israel reportedly warned Assad that further attacks were being considered, and that it would “bring down” his regime if he retaliated.

On Monday, Israeli Tourism Minister Uzi Landau accused Russia of destabilizing the Middle East by selling weapons to Assad’s regime. “Anyone who provides weaponry to terror organizations is siding with terror,” Landau said.

Iran Says 'Iran to unveil indigenous S-300 missiles: Army cmdr.'

A senior official of Iran Army says the country will unveil an indigenous Bavar-373 missile defense system, which is similar to the Russian S-300, during the next Iranian calendar year which begins March 21, 2014.

“Although because of US stonewalling efforts, Iran failed to purchase the S-300 system [from Russia], this system is being developed in the country and will be officially unveiled [in the next Persian calendar year],” deputy commander of Iran Army for self-sufficiency and research, Rear Admiral Farhad Amiri said on Sunday.

The official said the manufacturing of the Iranian S-300 system is underway and its subsystems have been already tested, adding that Bavar-373 missile system is projected to be unveiled in 2014.

Under a contract signed in 2007, Russia was required to provide Iran with at least five S-300 defense systems.

Moscow refused to deliver the system to Iran under the pretext that it is covered by the fourth round of the UN Security Council sanctions against Iran.

Over the past years, Iran has attained self-sufficiency in producing important military equipment and systems.

The Islamic Republic has repeatedly assured its neighbors that its military might poses no threat to other countries, insisting that its defense doctrine is based on deterrence.

Iran to unveil domestically-made missile system similar to Russian S-300

Necessary tests have been carried on the Bavar-373 missile subsystems, he added.

Although the U.S. hindered us from buying the Russian missile, but we started building it domestically, so that it will be inaugurated next year, he noted.

Under a contract signed in 2007, Russia was required to provide Iran with at least five S-300 air defense systems.

Iran will unveil new ballistic and cruise missiles in the first six months of the current Iranian calendar year, which started on March 21, Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi told the Mehr News Agency on Saturday.

Vahidi also said that the new cruise missile will have a longer range compared with previous domestically manufactured cruise missiles.

In addition, he said that new bombs would be unveiled, a new submarine and a new missile-launching flying boat would be launched, and new helicopters, aircraft, and unmanned aerial vehicles would be delivered to the country's armed forces in the first six months of the calendar year.