On land and sea, China’s nuclear capability growing

Earlier this month, a minor Chinese environmental office broke some of the biggest news in nuclear missile technology since the end of the Cold War.

 

The Shaanxi Province Environmental Monitoring Center posted a work summary of its projects, which included site monitoring for research into the Dong Feng-41 missile. The Department of Defense told Congress earlier this year that China was developing the DF-41, a road-mobile, next-generation intercontinental ballistic missile capable of launching multiple nuclear warheads.

 

The missile had been conceptualized for years, well before China’s military modernization of the past decade began. However, no Chinese governmental agency was willing to confirm its development until the provincial environmental office’s website did so. The post was quickly taken down, but only after it had been reported by the China Communist Party-affiliated Global Times.

 

The DF-41 news comes amid reports that China also conducted tests this month of its current land-based missile standard, the DF-31A.

 

U.S. officials also expect China to have operational nuclear missile-equipped submarines this year. The HK-6 bomber, a nuclear-capable aircraft with a range of about 2,000 miles, became part of the Chinese arsenal last year.

 

Collectively, it represents a nuclear triad, the decades-old standard that the United States still counts on for surviving a global nuclear war.

 

The Chinese triad remains heavily imbalanced in favor of land-based missiles, since its aircraft can’t fly very far and its submarines may not be all that reliable, according to analysts.

 

However, the bigger question remains: Why is China, a country with a “no first-use” policy, upgrading its nuclear arsenal at a time when the United States and Russia are reducing their stockpiles?

China adds ‘carrier killer’ to missiles facing Taiwan

WARNING:Pentagon sources said that China’s positioning of the ‘carrier killer’ missiles was a warning to the US to stay well clear of the area in case of a cross-strait conflict

China has based its new anti-ship Dong Feng-21D (DF-21D) “carrier killer” missiles along the coast facing Taiwan, US Defense Intelligence Agency Director Michael Flynn said in testimony before the US Senate Armed Services Committee.

Flynn said that Beijing was enhancing the firepower of the more than 1,200 conventional short-range ballistic missiles deployed opposite Taiwan with a limited, but growing, number of conventionally armed, medium-range ballistic missiles, including the DF-21D.

“China is developing a tiered ballistic missile defense system and has successfully tested the upper-tier capability on two occasions,” he said.

Flynn said that China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) was building a modern military capable of defending China’s “core interests” of protecting territorial integrity, including Taiwan.

“Preparation for a Taiwan conflict with US intervention remains the primary driver of the PLA’s evolving force structure, weapons development, operational planning and training,” Flynn said, adding that “China has spent as much as US$215 billion on military-related goods and services in 2012, in contrast to the US$107 billion Beijing reported in its official military budget.”

“Even as the Chinese military plans for conflict and continues its build-up across from Taiwan, cross-strait relations have remained good following President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) re-election,” he added.

Flynn said the PLA Navy was also developing a JIN-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine and JL-2 submarine-launched missiles.

He said that China’s investment in naval weapons is focused primarily on anti-air and anti-surface capabilities to achieve periodic and local sea and air superiority.

Flynn said that the Chinese air force was transforming from a force oriented solely toward territorial defense into one capable of both offshore offensive and defensive roles, including strike, air and missile defense, as well as early warning and reconnaissance.

While Flynn did not say why China had deployed the new “carrier-killer” missiles opposite Taiwan, Pentagon sources said it was a clear warning to the US to stay well clear of the area in case of a conflict.

However, a report published earlier this month by Ronald O’Rourke, the Congressional Research Service’s specialist in naval affairs, said the missile could be defeated with a combination of active and passive measures along its “kill chain.”

O’Rourke said the US Navy could reduce the aircraft carrier electromagnetic emissions used by the missile and even release false emissions to fool it. In addition, the US Navy could disable the missile’s targeting systems, destroy it in flight or use decoys to confuse it as it approached its target, he added.

China’s DF-21D Missile Is a One-Shot Aircraft Carrier Killer

Since the end of WWII, America's naval might has been undisputed and our aircraft carriers have been its crown jewels. However, the days of dominance could end with China's new DF-21D ballistic missile—the only device on Earth capable of sinking an aircraft carrier—four and a half acres of sovereign US territory—with one shot.

The DF-21D (Dong-Feng 21 variant D) is the world's first and only anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM). It's a two stage, land-launched missile with a maximum estimated range of 2,700 to 3,000 km. Its single fuel-air explosive warhead packs 200 to 500 kilotons. It was developed by China Changfeng Mechanics and Electronics Technology Academy as part of the country's massive military modernization effort, an initiative focused primarily on developing overwhelming missile technologies for which there are no effective defenses. The Defense Department believes it entered active service around 2009.

While the Chinese obviously aren't saying much on the inner workings of the new missile system, military experts believe it will rely on China's Over the Horizon radar (OTH) to monitor a 3,000-km swath of the South China Sea, where China is now claiming dominion over. The OTH system bounces its radar signal off the ionosphere to see past the curvature of the earth. If the OTH detects a carrier battle fleet, the system instigates a set of Yaogan satellites to search the area and provide precise targeting data. Additionally, when the OTH detects an approaching fleet, the system will reportedly launch a swarm of micro-satellites into low orbit where they will help refine the targeting data further and transmit it back to the onshore command center. Meanwhile, UAVs will be launched to track the fleet. Once the missile has been launched and separated from its first stage, the warhead employs synthetic aperture radar to find the carrier. It receives real time telemetry data as it locks onto its target and initiates its terminal descent.

This capability could be used to effectively deny US carriers from intervening in, say, the Taiwan Strait. It could also be used as a very large stick in resolving local territorial disputes. Many members of the security community also worry that the FAE warheads could easily be replaced with nuclear ones. If that occurred, it would very lead to an arms race with Japan and India (neither of whom are particularly fond of the Communist PRC). Or, it could dissolve the US-Russian INF Treaty, which prevents the two countries from from deploying short and intermediate range land-based ballistic and cruise missiles.