Reducing reaction times key factor for Russian Air Force modernization

Newly appointed Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Air Force Victor Bondarev has given a press conference in Moscow.

Major General Bondarev related to journalists plans for the Air Force’s development, and voiced some previously unknown information.

The greatest interest aroused by Bondarev’s statement was that the first complex of new generation C-500 anti-missile systems could be supplied to the troops already in 2013, though it had been previously announced that the system would only be ready for testing in 2015. Such a sharp “acceleration” of the process raises questions, but a possible explanation lies in the system being gradually brought to specified conditions.

Taking the year 2013 as a starting point, it is logical to assume that this year only a “reduced” version of the system, equipped with a “transition” combat control item, radar from the previous C-400 system, and a new missile launch pad will be ready for testing. Later, in the next 3-5 years, as new elements of the system are developed and adopted, the troops will be supplied with improved variants of the system. This practice has a number of advantages. Due to the fact that personnel of several regiments have already mastered experimental anti-missile systems by the time standard systems are adopted, it will be possible to reduce the time needed for training detachments.

Reaction time and combat readiness

One of the modern military aircraft’s main characteristics is its reaction time to threats, and during his press conference Bondarev also drew attention to this factor. Answering the question about the state of the air defense system, he said that today the time of reaction to the appearance of an enemy aircraft in the zone of responsibility was 3-4 seconds, which allowed the intercepting of almost any target.

Maj. Gen. Bondarev also voiced another figure – 4 hours – which applies to the Air Force’s reaction time. This figure was mentioned in response to the question about the necessity of resuming Russian military aircrafts’ permanent presence on Sakhalin and expanding Russia’s presence in the Arctic.

He stressed that “If we are not present somewhere today, that doesn't mean that we can't appear there very quickly. The Air Force is a mobile type of armed forces, and airplanes can reach the same Sakhalin Island in four hours.”

The Commander-in-Chief also noted that Russian military aviation was regularly training quick redeployment to advanced aerodromes.

Maintenance of the Air Force in combat readiness is possible only in case of uninterrupted training of flight personnel. Today it is conducted both with the use of simulators allowing the practice of actions in emergency situations, and in the air. Moreover, the number of flight hours per crew is growing. In 2011, on average for the Air Force it totaled more than 90 hours, and this year it is going to exceed 100 hours per year.

In 2012, Air Force academies that have completed their restructuring are resuming the intake of students. This year about 180 students will enter universities aiming to become pilots in the Russian Air Force, and about 80 more will train to become pilots in other state structures possessing aviation of its own, such as the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Federal Security Service, and the Ministry of Emergency Situations. Next year, this number should be increased. Theoretically, while Russia plans to bring the number of its Air Force to 2200-2500 airplanes and helicopters by the mid-2020s, it will be necessary to have 4500-5000 people as flight personnel. Thus, it is essential to increase the intake of students at the academies.

Retiring the Antonov An-26

Bondarev did not disclose the number of aircraft which should be supplied to the Air Force this year. However, he made several interesting points when speaking about modernization plans and decommissioning of aircraft. In particular, according to the Commander-in-Chief, the Antonov An-26 light military transport aircraft will be completely written off in the next few years. “These airplanes are absolutely out of date, and their further modernization is inexpedient,” he noted. This statement brings us back to the problem of replacing light transport aircraft, which was the topic of many discussions including those on Voice of Russia’s website. Touching upon a possible successor, Bondarev noted that a new light transport airplane was being developed for the Air Force, but he did not name either the developer, or the scheduled time of production.

Meanwhile, nothing can prevent analysts from making an educated guess. Based on the availability of relevant projects that are within the reach of our Air Force, it is highly probable that work on the Ilyushin Il-112В project will resume. The 2011 report by OJSC Ilyushin Aviation Company published on the Internet states the company’s desire to reinvigorate the Ministry of Defense’s interest in the project. It is noteworthy that in May 2010 the Ministry of Defense dropped the Il-112В project as the price of its development had twice exceeded the initialestimate.

If the military and the United Aircraft Corporation do find common ground, and work on the Il-112В project resumes, this will be an optimal solution for the Russian Air Force, because in this case there will be no need to search for a foreign aircraft to fill the gap left by the An-26.

China, India challenge US monopoly on AMD, satellite defense

Development of antimissile and anti-satellite systems is not the prerogative of the United States or Russia. Many other countries, however, like China, Israel and India are developing such systems. The creation of them, caused by nuclear proliferation, is becoming an integral factor in the military-industrial policy of leading Eurasian countries.

China studying possibilities

Serious talks about Chinese potential in this field started in January 2007. At that time a missile interceptor was launched from Chinese territory that destroyed the Chinese meteorological satellite Feng Yun-1C. The interception of a spacecraft at an altitude of 864 kilometers with a direct hit was weighty confirmation of China’s abilities.

In order to appreciate the significance of this event, it must be noted that most military satellites use lower orbits. An attack against a satellite group can seriously undermine the abilities of a modern army, which cannot operate without its space component.

However, the case of China’s development of missile defense systems is somewhat different. The interception of a satellite differs greatly from the interception of a ballistic missile. First of all, there is much less time for the system to detect the target, classify it, make a decision and launch a missile. Today China definitely does not possess the ability to deploy a full-fledged modern ABM system. As regards to surface-to-air missile systems adopted by the Chinese, the exported Russian S-300PMU/PMU2 is the most advanced among them – but all Beijing does is create a copy of it, which goes under the index HQ-9.

Thus, the missile defense of the People’s Republic of China can be defined as rudimentary. Its most up-to-date surface-to-air missile systems are able to destroy planes and cruise missiles, but not ballistic missiles.

India searching for a way

Talks about possible development of anti-satellite systems in India kicked off when it started independent space launches. Yet it was only recently that they have evolved into a serious discussion. It came after the successful test-launch in April 2012 of an Agni-V missile, which has a flight range of more than 5,000 kilometers.

At the press conference dedicated to the missile launch, the head of the Indian Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO) Vijay Kumar Saraswat said that “the Agni-V launch has opened a new era. In addition to new capabilities of our strategic defense, the missile opens up fascinating possibilities in the field of creating anti-satellite weapons and launching mini-satellites.”

According to analysts, the Indian “satellite destroyer” will be based on a Soviet-era idea. An interceptor is placed into orbit, which then maneuvers into approaching an enemy spacecraft and destroys it point blank. The advantage of this method is a far greater reliability of interception; the disadvantage, though, is a significant expenditure of time.

However, satellite defense is not as important for India as missile defense. The long history of difficult relations with Pakistan and China with their huge arsenals of medium and short range missiles capable of hitting targets on the Indian territory, forces this country to watch closely the developments in the field of the ABM defense.

India has long been developing in this sphere, but has not been successful so far. The country’s military is trying to use a medium-range ballistic missile as a basis for an interceptor missile. A serious problem for India is the lack of a modern radar system, which would be on the same level as the American Aegis radar system or the latest Russian radars, for example, as part of the С-400 system.

New Delhi is trying to make up for this by purchasing equipment abroad, which is why Israel – as a long-time and active partner of India in the military sphere – has a profound influence on the policy of this country. However, being a supplier of medium-range surface-to-air missile systems to India, Israel has not given it the Arrow system capable of intercepting ballistic targets. The reason for this is theposition of the United States: The Arrow was created with significant American participation, and the US is traditionally prejudiced against the transfer of such technologies to tertiary countries that are not their satellites. In 2002 the US already blocked such a transaction, and as a result – instead of the whole system – India received only two Green Pine radar stations.

In the foreseeable future there is only one realistic way for India to receive a functioning ABM system – to sign a contract on the delivery of the Russian S-400 or S-300VMD systems.