Russia intensified its air campaign against the Syrian opposition in and
around Aleppo City from September 20 – 22 following the breakdown of the
nationwide ceasefire in Syria. The dramatic uptick in Russian airstrikes
coincided with the Syrian Arab Army’s announcement of the start of an
offensive to seize the remaining opposition-held districts of Aleppo City on
September 22, demonstrating Russia’s continued commitment to support pro-regime
operations against the Syrian opposition. Russian strikes concentrated against
opposition-held terrain in the southern districts of Aleppo City as well as in
the city’s western countryside, marking the largest three-day surge in Russian
airstrikes against the city and its environs since mid-August. Russian
warplanes reportedly conducted several airstrikes using cluster or incendiary
munitions, including an alleged wave of incendiary attacks against opposition
frontlines south of Aleppo City, while regime jets also intensified their
bombardment of the city and its suburbs.
The surge in Russian strikes defied U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry’s demand on September 21 that pro-regime forces “immediately ground all aircraft” flying over opposition-held areas in order to “restore credibility” to U.S.-Russian negotiations on the Syrian Civil War. Russia has periodically intensified and tempered its air operations in Aleppo Province during negotiations with the U.S., wielding the threat of even deeper humanitarian crisis and the defeat of the acceptable opposition in Aleppo City in order to extract concessions. Russia will not accede to a partnership with the U.S. except on its own terms, and will continue to wage its air campaign in Syria coercively in order to secure them.
The surge in Russian strikes defied U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry’s demand on September 21 that pro-regime forces “immediately ground all aircraft” flying over opposition-held areas in order to “restore credibility” to U.S.-Russian negotiations on the Syrian Civil War. Russia has periodically intensified and tempered its air operations in Aleppo Province during negotiations with the U.S., wielding the threat of even deeper humanitarian crisis and the defeat of the acceptable opposition in Aleppo City in order to extract concessions. Russia will not accede to a partnership with the U.S. except on its own terms, and will continue to wage its air campaign in Syria coercively in order to secure them.
The following graphic depicts SW’s assessment of
Russian airstrike locations based on reports from local Syrian activist
networks, statements by Russian and Western officials, and documentation of
Russian airstrikes through social media. This map represents locations targeted
by Russia’s air campaign, rather than the number of individual strikes or
sorties.
High-Confidence Reporting. SW places high confidence in reports corroborated
by documentation from opposition factions and activist networks on the ground
in Syria deemed to be credible that demonstrate a number of key indicators of
Russian airstrikes.
Low-Confidence Reporting. ISW places low confidence in reports
corroborated only by multiple secondary sources, including from local Syrian
activist networks deemed credible or Syrian state-run media.
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