The fighting grinds on, with
Iran supplying more of its own troops, along with Hezbollah militiamen
from Lebanon to push the rebels back in some areas, while abandoning
large areas of the country to rebel control. The government is
concentrating its forces to defend Damascus, the coastal area and roads
between the two. Total deaths for two years of fighting are now over
82,000, with about 60 percent of them civilians. Most of the rest are
government troops and pro-government militias (Alawites, Christians). A
fifth of the population has been driven from their homes and over a
million people have fled the country. The refugee situation is expected
to get worse. The economy has been disrupted in most of the country,
making it difficult to get essential supplies (like food) to millions of
people. Everyone is having supply problems, but it’s worse for the
rebels who do not (like the government) have bases with warehouses full
of ammo and weapons. The ammo shortage has been a growing constraint on
rebel activity.
The Arab League has not been able to muster enough unity to
call for international (Western) intervention in Syria. The Arab League
did so two years ago for Libya and many Arabs considered it shameful
that the Arab world could not handle the military intervention itself.
Despite trillions of dollars in oil income and hundreds of millions of
Arabs demanding something be done, the Arab League had to call on
outsiders to save Libya from degenerating into a drawn out bloodbath.
That is what is happening in Syria and many Arabs refuse to accept
responsibility and just blame the West and Israel for the mess in Syria.
Given that toxic atmosphere, Western nations, including NATO member
Turkey, are reluctant to do what the Arabs want done but will not admit
they want done and cannot do themselves. What a mess.
The U.S. has said it would intervene if Syria used chemical
weapons. The chemical weapons appear to have been used but the U.S. is
trying to back out of its commitment because no other NATO nation is
willing to go in simply because some chemical weapons have been used. So
the U.S. says it is still investigating, while it desperately (and
quietly) tries to get the Arab states to call for intervention and NATO
states to agree to respond to such a call.
In eastern Syria local tribes have taken control of oil fields
and are smuggling the oil into Turkey for the benefit of the tribes,
not the rebels. This is the sort of factionalism and selfishness that
has weakened the ability of the rebels to decisively defeat the
outnumbered government forces.
Although the rebels are more numerous and aggressive, they are
increasingly divided by religious and political differences and that
leads to less cooperation and sometimes violence. The government has two
advantages, the main one being that it is united in its fight for
survival. But the government also has the financial and military support
of Iran and its Hezbollah militia in Lebanon. While Hezbollah is a
Lebanese organization, it was founded with Iranian help and sustained by
billions in Iranian cash and weapons over the last three decades.
Without Iran, Hezbollah would get by torn apart by the Lebanese majority
it has long terrorized. Iran, despite losing half its oil income in the
past year due to stronger sanctions and international pressure to halt
its nuclear weapons program, is determined to maintain its control (via
the Assad family) of Syria. While the majority of Syrians oppose the
Assads, the opposition is fragmented and Iran has worked with the Assads
to exploit those divisions and keep the rebels too weak to take control
of the entire country. Iran is spending billions to do this and flying
more and more military specialists and combat troops into Syria.
While the many rebel factions understand what Iran and the
Assads are doing they are finding unity elusive. The big divide is
between the Islamic radical factions, the Kurds and the nationalists.
The Islamic radicals are a minority but are the most fanatical fighters.
There are several problems with the radicals. For one thing about half
of them are foreigners. While some foreign help is appreciated, the
Islamic radical groups sometimes act like an invading army to civilians.
That’s because of the second problem; the radicals want to replace the
Assad’s secular dictatorship with a religious dictatorship. This does
not go down well with the Kurds (15 percent of the population) and the
nationalist rebels (mostly the Sunnis who represent 70 percent of the
population.) The Sunnis are fragmented into many tribal and political
factions and all agree on having some kind of democracy (or
“arrangement”) where each could do their own thing and not be dominated
by one faction (as the Assads have done for over three decades.)
Hezbollah has admitted that its forces were fighting in Syria,
mainly to secure border areas and roads to Damascus (its supply line to
Iran). Hezbollah leaders also boasted that they could continue to get
new weapons from Iran via Syria and that these would be used against
Israel, in part to avenge recent Israeli air attacks in Syria. Some of
the Syrian rebels believe that the Israeli air raids were actually an
effort by Israel to prevent Syrian soldiers from deserting to the
rebels. This sort of thinking is the result of decades of Arab
propaganda accusing Israel of being responsible for just about
everything that goes wrong in the Arab world. Such long-held delusions
are hard to shake. Some rebel factions see the Israeli air raids as a
good thing for them, but out of fear of being branded “Israeli puppets”
keep quiet about it.
May 11, 2013: Two car bombs went off in a Turkish town near
the Syrian border. The attack killed at least 46, wounded over a hundred
and did much property damage. The Turks quickly figured out who was
responsible; it was Turkish communist radical group that had long been
supported by the Assads and Iran. The Turks accused the Assads of trying
to use such terrorist violence to turn the Turkish people against the
growing number of Syrian refugees and the rebels. The Turks also see
this as an Assad ploy to get the Turkish military to move into Syria,
which the Assads believe they could use to gain broad popular support
from Arabs because of the bad memories of centuries of harsh Turkish
rule in Arab countries (until the Turk Empire was dissolved in 1918).
This popular revulsion, so the logic goes, would force Arab governments
to stop supporting the rebels. It’s unclear if it would all work out
this way but the Assads are desperate and that makes desperate moves
seem like a reasonable risk. The Assads denied any connection with the
bombing.
May 8, 2013: The Internet in Syria went dead for nearly 24
hours. The cause was apparently a technical problem (or a deliberate
act) at the handful of links to the outside world that carry all
Internet traffic into and out of Syria.
May 7, 2013: Israel believes that Russia plans to deliver to Syria four S-300 units, each with
a long-range search radar to detect targets and six launcher
vehicles (each carrying four or two missiles). This deal would involve
delivering 144 missiles as well as technical assistance. The S-300 is
similar to the American Patriot system and more difficult for Israeli
electronic countermeasures to deal with. Currently the Israelis are able
to blind Syrian air defenses with electronic countermeasures and
protect their warplanes operating over Syria. With the S-300s there
might be Israeli aircraft losses. Israeli officials are trying to
convince the Russians to not send the S-300s (which Syria had ordered
before the rebellion began which, to the Russians, means delivering them
is not a violation of the UN arms sanctions on Syria.)
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