Turkish Kurds and the Turkish
business community have both praised the ceasefire and peace process
between the Turkish government and the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) as a
chance to end the bloodshed and pursue economic development. For
Turkish Kurds ending the war opens the predominantly Kurdish areas in
southeastern Turkey to more investment and development. The business
community saw the peace process as a boon for the entire country. This
month a major credit rating agency upgraded its rating for Turkish
bonds, from Ba1 to Baa3. The upgrade came because international lenders
said the peace process is reducing political uncertainty in Turkey.
The upgrade was expected. Shortly after PKK senior commander Abdullah
Ocalan announced on March 21 that the PKK would implement a ceasefire
with the Turkish government the Turkish business community speculated
that Turkey’s credit rating would go up because ending the war would
reduce worries about Turkish stability.
The economics of peace make sense. However, the war began in
August 1984. Long wars leave many political, diplomatic, economic and
security problems in their wake, and the Kurdish War is no exception.
The comprehensive settlement must address a tangled thicket of
problems. Here are a couple of the diplomatic and security pretzels.
When U.S. President Barack Obama met with Turkish Prime Minister Recep
Tayyip Erdogan on Obama commended the Turkish government for seeking a
peaceful end to the PKK insurgency. Well and good. The U.S., however,
regards the PKK as a terrorist organization –because Turkey, a U.S.
ally, insisted that the U.S. declare the PKK a terrorist organization.
The PKK has not yet disarmed. It is in the process of retreating into
its base area in Iraq. Iraq regards the retreat of PKK fighters into
Iraq as a breach of its national sovereignty, especially for non-Iraqi
PKK fighters. Iraq is right. Iraq is also a U.S. ally.
Several Middle Eastern sources have quoted PKK commanders who
say they intend to keep their units together. That could threaten a
peace agreement with Turkey but several senior PKK leaders have said
Turkish PKK fighters will disarm once the peace agreement is reached and
affirmed. The emerging peace deal will likely include programs for
reintegrating them into civilian life (training, education, etc.) for
Turkish and possibly Iraqi Kurds who fought for the PKK. The outlook
for Syrian and Iranian PKK fighters, however, is anything but clear.
Syria is embroiled in a huge civil war. Iran is a dictatorship. In a
statement issued in early May, PKK field commander Murat Karanliyan said
that he hoped the peace deal would ultimately include members of the
Iranian Kurd Party of Free Life of Kurdistan (PJAK) and the Syrian Kurd
Democratic Union Party (PYD). The PKK has confirmed that both Iranian
and Syrian Kurd fighters have been operating inside Turkey. The Iranian
government is reportedly concerned that PKK militants who have been
fighting in Turkey will now join PJAK units and launch attacks in Iran.
At the moment PJAK and the Iranian government are observing a ceasefire.
(Austin Bay)
May 14, 2013: The PKK reported that its first group of
fighters has withdrawn from Turkey. Nine men and six women entered Iraq
through the border town of Harur (Dohuk province, Iraq).
May 8, 2013: Kurdish members of parliament in the Peace and
Democracy Party (BDP) announced that the PKK withdrawal from
southeastern Turkey has begun. From 200 to 500 PKK fighters have begun
moving toward the Turkey-Iraq border. The fighters will cross the border
in the Semdinli and Sirnak areas. Turkish media reported that PKK
fighters have told them they have seen an increase in Turkish aerial
surveillance flights and that Turkish security units have been
reinforced along the border. The PKK rebels appear to be worried that
they will be ambushed.
May 7, 2013: Iraq’s national government reiterated its support
for the peace process between the PKK and Turkey. However, the Iraqi
government also stated that the withdrawal of PKK militants into Iraq
from Turkey is a violation of Iraqi sovereignty. The Iraqi government
has made this objection several times since details of the ceasefire
agreement were made public in late March. Iraq’s Kurdish Regional
Government immediately said that only Iraqi Kurds fighting with the PKK
should withdraw into Iraq.
April 25, 2013: PKK field commander Murat Karayilan announced
(from a base camp in Iraq’s Qandil Mountains) that PKK fighters will
begin withdrawing from Turkey sometime in early May. The withdrawal will
be conducted in phases.
April 17, 2013: The Iraqi national government is objecting to
an oil and gas deal signed by the government of Turkey and Iraq’s
Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) that arranged for the KRG to sell
oil and gas directly to Turkey. The Iraqi national government said that
the deal is illegal because only the national government can approve oil
and gas contracts. It’s believed that KRG could export one million
barrels a day by 2015 or 2016. The region currently exports about
250,000 barrels a day.
April 16, 2013: PKK senior commander Abdullah Ocalan has
released a document which outlines his priorities for gaining support
for the peace process and organizing a PKK withdrawal from Turkey. It
amounts to a political field order. Oclana is calling for four
political conferences which will be held to solidify support for the
ceasefire and peace process. The conferences will be held in Dykarbakir
and Ankara, Turkey, Irbil, Iraqi Kurdistan and one somewhere in Western
Europe (possibly Brussels). Ocalan wants all Turkish ethnic minorities
to participate in the Ankara conference. The Diyarbakir conference will
be held primarily for Turkish Kurds. The meeting in Iraq will be for
Iranian, Syrian and Iraqi Kurds. According to a Kurdish politician who
is familiar with Ocalan’s order, the Iranian Party for Free Life in
Kurdistan (PJAK) and the Syrian Kurd Democratic Union Party (PYD) will
also participate in the Iraqi conference.
April 13, 2013: The Turkish business community throughout the
country is reportedly delighted with the PKK ceasefire. Turkish
businesses think a peace agreement improves the political prospects for
establishing new trade partnerships in the Middle East. Ending the war
will demonstrate that Turkey is politically stable. The investment
community expects a peace agreement will lead to a upgrade in Turkey’s
credit rating.
April 2, 2013: Turkish Kurds living in predominantly Kurdish
regions of Turkey are hopeful that the PKK ceasefire will continue and
lead to a comprehensive peace settlement. Turkish media report that
Turkish Kurds hope the end of the war will lead to economic development
in their region. Over 40,000 people have been killed in the long war.
Kurdish members of parliament in pro-Kurd Peace and Democracy Party
(BDP) claim that they are positioned to help reach a durable peace
settlement.
March 26, 2013: The Turkish military said that it has not
suspended operations against PKK militants. The military will defend
Turkey and Turkish citizens against PKK attacks and threats from PKK
militants. The military is prepared to observe the ceasefire as the
peace process advances.
Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) said that it
supported the peace process between the PKK and the Turkish government.
However, it would prefer that members of the PKK who withdraw from
Turkey withdraw to their own home country. Syrian and Iraqi Kurds
fighting with the PKK should withdraw to their respective countries. The
KRG indicated that Turkish militants fighting with the PKK should
remain in Turkey. The KRG said that it knows that there are Iranian
Kurds who are members of the PKK and some of the Iranians are in the PKK
base camps in the Qandil Mountains.
March 25, 2013: Turkish F-16 fighter bombers overflew several
PKK base camps in northern Iraq.
The Turkish military said the over
flights are for reconnaissance only. The jets will only attack PKK camps
if PKK militants attack Turkish forces or targets in Turkey.
March 23, 2013: PKK field commander Murat Karayilan declared a
ceasefire with the Turkish government. The ceasefire is to be observed
by all PKK members. On March 21 PKK senior commander Abdullah Ocalan
told his organization that it was time to observe a permanent ceasefire
and reach a peace agreement with the Turkish government. Ocalan is
imprisoned in Turkey.
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