An increase in Sunni Arab
violence last month left over 700 dead and nearly 2,000 wounded. This
was the worst month for violence since December 2011. Most of the
casualties were civilians, usually Shia killed by Sunni Arab terrorists.
About 20 percent were members of the security forces (including those
from the autonomous Kurdish provinces). The Sunni Arab radicals are
trying to halt the April 21
st
provincial elections and, in general, force the Shia
government to collapse. That has not been working but the Sunni Arab
radicals keep trying.
Many Iraqi Sunni Arabs are driven to this violence for
economic and cultural reasons. After the fall of their leader Saddam
Hussein in 2003 the Sunni Arabs lost their economic and political power.
For centuries, even though part of the Ottoman Turk Empire, the Sunni
Arab minority ruled Baghdad and the Shia tribes to the south (and the
city of Basra.) In the north Mosul province was largely Kurd and part of
Turkey proper, not a conquered province.
After World War I, the victorious British, wary of the new
Turkish Republic eventually trying to rebuild its empire, detached Mosul
province (and all its oil wells) from Turkey and combined it with the
former imperial provinces of Baghdad and Basra to form the new country
of Iraq. Despite their minority status, the Sunni Arabs (about 20
percent of the population) took charge of the new constitutional
monarchy (ruled by a Sunni Arab noble family chased out of the new
kingdom of “Saudi” Arabia recently created by the Saud family). The Shia
majority (and minorities, mainly Kurdish Sunnis and several Christian
sects and others) objected but the Sunni Arab dominated security forces
kept a lid on things. In the 1950s the Sunni Arab generals slaughtered
the royal family and the country became a military dictatorship that was
eventually taken over by the Baath Party (a socialist, and very Sunni,
group) led by Saddam Hussein. This guy was vicious, paranoid and
occasionally quite mad. But he rewarded his Sunni Arab followers with
most of the oil income and nearly all the political, military and
economic power. Iraqi Sunni Arabs miss that and many are willing to kill
or be killed to get it back. Because of the increased violence last
month, Shia radical groups, who have been largely dormant since 2008,
have been increasingly active attacking Sunni Arab mosques and Sunni
Arab civilians in general. Many of these Shia radicals want to drive all
Sunni Arabs out of Iraq, killing those that resist. A growing number of
Iraqi Shia agrees with this solution. Most politicians do not, as
trying to chase over four million Sunni Arabs into neighboring countries
would bring a strong local and international reaction.
The Shia are not willing to give up power and are angry at the
Sunni for their greed and growing terror attacks on Shia (especially
civilians). Unused to running things, the Shia have had a hard time
since 2003 building an efficient government. The corruption that has
long (as in thousands of years) cursed the region does not help, but the
main problem is that Sunni Arabs dominated the government and economy
for centuries and were the most educated group in the area. While
vicious, greedy tyrants, the Sunnis had the skills to make the
government work. The Shia are still playing catch-up.
The Shia government is dealing with two main centers of Sunni
resistance. In Anbar province (the largely Sunni and mostly desert west)
a growing number of Sunni tribes are in open rebellion. There’s a
similar situation in the Kurdish north, especially in the cities of
Mosul and Kirkuk, which are on the border between Arab Iraq and the
autonomous Kurdish northern Iraq. Mosul and Kirkuk have oil and thirty
years ago were mainly Kurdish. But then Saddam began forcing Kurds
further north and giving their homes, land and jobs to poor Sunni Arab
families from the south. After 2003 the Kurds came south to reclaim the
property Saddam had taken from them. The Sunni Arabs resisted, and
continue to resist. The claims of all the Kurdish refugees have never
been completely settled and the Kurdish government of the autonomous
(since the 1990s when British and American warplanes and commandos aided
Kurdish rebels in expelling Saddam’s troops and keeping them out) north
threaten to take back Mosul and Kirkuk (and the surrounding oil fields)
by force. This would trigger a civil war with the Arabs which would
probably end in a bloody stalemate. So the Kurds support the low-level
violence against the Sunni Arab terrorist groups and the two cities
remain the scene of constant ethnic (the Kurds are not Arabs) warfare.
While there is a standoff with the well-armed and organized
Kurdish army in the north, the Sunni Arabs in the West are irregulars
and more vulnerable to the growing strength and abilities of the Shia
dominated army and police force. The radicals in the Sunni Arab
community welcome more violence because they believe that if enough
Sunni Arabs are killed by the Shia the Sunni governments in neighboring
countries (especially Saudi Arabia and, once the Sunni rebels win,
Syria) will intervene and restore the Iraqi Sunni Arabs to power. Most
Iraqi Sunni Arabs understand that this would never work, but speaking up
against the radicals (including al Qaeda, which has always been a Sunni
supremacist outfit) can get you killed. Despite that threat many Iraqi
Sunni Arabs do fight the radicals, but that’s a war they seem to be
losing as the Shia are coming to believe that all Sunni Arabs are their
enemy and all should be treated roughly.
One thing most Sunni Arabs can agree on is the need to be
united in dealing with the Shia dominated government. The growing
violence last month led to a call for an autonomous Sunni Arab
government in Anbar (the province that comprises most of western Iraq).
The government will not allow that as long as Sunni Arab terrorists find
sanctuary and support in Anbar. As far as the Shia are concerned they
have been very generous with the Sunni Arabs, with the understanding
that the Sunni Arab community would respond and help in suppressing
Sunni Arab terror groups. The Shia consider the Sunni Arab community to
have failed in this regard and must either make a better effort to calm
down their own radicals or face the consequences.
Some Shia politicians are openly accusing Turkey of backing
Sunni protestors and terrorists as part of a conspiracy to regain their
lost (because of the British after World War I) Mosul province (the
northern third of Iraq). The Turks deny this and there’s no “regain
Mosul” movement in Turkey. The Turks are negotiating deals with the
Kurdish government of northern Iraq in order to keep things quiet up
there and to help suppress the Kurdish separatist radicals in Turkey
(the PKK).
The growing violence inside Iraq has distracted Iraqis from
the civil war raging in neighboring Syria. There, over eight times as
many people died from violence last month. The areas just across the
border from Iraq are largely controlled by Sunni Arab rebels or
separatist Kurds. The Iraqi Shia fear that a Sunni Arab government in
Sunni will provide sanctuary for Iraqi Sunni terrorists. Then again, the
current Shia minority Assad government in Syria also provided sanctuary
for Sunni Arab terrorists for decades, especially during the Sunni Arab
terror campaign in 2004-8 (that, at its height, was killing over 3,000
people a month).
May 4, 2013: The results of the recent provincial elections
show the current party in power (led by prime minister Maliki) had a
majority in seven of twelve provinces. These were the first provincial
elections since the Americans left two years ago. Six provinces did not
hold elections. The three Kurdish provinces in the north have their own
schedule for local voting. There was too much violence in Sunni Arab
Anbar and Nineveh provinces and in Kirkuk province there have been no
elections since 2005 because of disputes over who is eligible to vote.
May 3, 2013: The government signed the contracts to buy a
second batch of 18 F-16 jet fighters. Ultimately the government wants to
have 96 F-16s and the first of these will enter service in two years.
April 28, 2013: The government blocked (from Iraq) eight
satellite TV channels for broadcasting encouragement to Sunni Arab
separatists and terrorists in Iraq. Most of the Sunni Arabs in the
region would feel better if the Sunni Arab minority in Iraq were running
Iraq. This is because of the growing threats from Shia Iran to take
over the region and impose Shia Islam on everyone. Most Iraqis are Shia,
and do not want to be ruled by Iran either.
April 27, 2013: In the north (Salaheddin province) Sunni
terrorists have been particularly active and even took control of a
small town (Suleiman Beg) for a short while.
April 23, 2013: In the north (Hawijah, 50 kilometers south of
Kirkuk) soldiers and police were ordered to break up a camp where a
thousand Sunni Arab demonstrators were protesting not being in charge
and getting most of the oil money anymore and refusing to go home. The
police believed several dozen armed Sunni Arab terrorists were hiding
out among the demonstrators and the raid was to grab the terrorists. The
demonstrators resisted the troops and the soldiers opened fire. Three
soldiers and about fifty civilians died and the Sunni Arab community was
outraged.
April 22, 2013: Sunni Arab separatists organized large
demonstrations and strikes (ordering businesses to close or else) in
five provinces with large Sunni populations (minorities, except in
Anbar).
April 21, 2013: Provincial elections were held in 12 of 18
provinces. Voters are deciding which members of fifty parties and
coalitions shall hold 378 seats on provincial legislatures. These
elections are held every four years.
April 20, 2013: The government postponed provincial elections in Anbar and Nineveh because of the threat of violence.
No comments:
Post a Comment