Since the end of
the Cold War in 1991 there has been a major shift in naval power in the
Indian Ocean. With the demise of the Russian fleet (seen as an Indian
ally) and the rise of Chinese naval power, India has sought cooperation
from a growing U.S. Navy presence in the area. This is all about keeping
Indian naval power supreme in the Indian Ocean. The rising Chinese
threat is seen as more than India can handle alone. With Indian
inability to expand, or even maintain their current naval power more
help has to come from somewhere.
While India was technically neutral during the Cold War, India
was generally hostile to the United States and quite cozy with Russia.
India still has good relationships with Russia, but the Russians have no
fleet to speak of these days and suddenly the Americans are seen as
potential allies. In part this is because the anti-American slant was
more the product of Indian post-colonial nationalism (that was generally
anti-Western) and infatuation with socialism. Both those policies
proved failures and, while many Indian politicians do not accept the
shift to a market economy and better relations with the West, these
changes have happened anyway.
But above all this there is China, which has already taken
some disputed territory on the Indian border and claims still more.
Chinese ships (both commercial and military) are more frequently seen in
the Indian Ocean. Chinese shipping firms have refurbished ports
throughout the region and manage them to handle growing Chinese trade
with the countries where these ports are located. The Chinese presence
cannot be ignored and the Indians are now welcoming the Americans.
Yet there won’t be a lot of Americans. The U.S. defense budget
is declining and so is the size of the American fleet. Most of the U.S.
naval presence in the Indian Ocean is in and around the Persian Gulf
and is there mainly to curb growing Iranian aggression. The only major
American base actually in the Indian Ocean is Diego Garcia (a 44 square
kilometer island 4,700 kilometers south of Afghanistan).
The U.S. Navy
maintains a base in Bahrain in the Persian Gulf and several Gulf states
host American warplanes. What India wants is some American warships
closer to the Indian coast. That does not seem to be happening soon
enough to influence the Chinese fleet moving into the region.
No comments:
Post a Comment