Determined to kill or capture a murderous Mekong River drug lord,
China's security forces considered a tactic they'd never tried before:
calling a drone strike on his remote hideaway deep in the hills of
Myanmar.
The attack didn't happen — the man was later captured and brought to
China for trial — but the fact that authorities were considering such an
option cast new light on China's unmanned aerial vehicle program, which
has been quietly percolating for years and now appears to be moving
into overdrive.
Chinese aerospace firms have developed dozens of drones, known also
as unmanned aerial vehicles, or UAVs. Many have appeared at air shows
and military parades, including some that bear an uncanny resemblance to
the Predator, Global Hawk and Reaper models used with deadly effect by
the U.S. Air Force and CIA. Analysts say that although China still
trails the U.S. and Israel, the industry leaders, its technology is
maturing rapidly and on the cusp of widespread use for surveillance and
combat strikes.
"My sense is that China is moving into large-scale deployments of
UAVs," said Ian Easton, co-author of a recent report on Chinese drones
for the Project 2049 Institute security think tank.
China's move into large-scale drone deployment displays its
military's growing sophistication and could challenge U.S. military
dominance in the Asia-Pacific. It also could elevate the threat to
neighbors with territorial disputes with Beijing, including Vietnam,
Japan, India and the Philippines. China says its drones are capable of
carrying bombs and missiles as well as conducting reconnaissance,
potentially turning them into offensive weapons in a border conflict.
China's increased use of drones also adds to concerns about the lack
of internationally recognized standards for drone attacks. The United
States has widely employed drones as a means of eliminating terror
suspects in Pakistan and the Arabian Peninsula.
"China is following the precedent set by the U.S. The thinking is
that, 'If the U.S. can do it, so can we. They're a big country with
security interests and so are we'," said Siemon Wezeman, a senior fellow
at the arms transfers program at the Stockholm International Peace
Research Institute in Sweden, or SIPRI.
"The justification for an attack would be that Beijing too has a
responsibility for the safety of its citizens. There needs to be
agreement on what the limits are," he said.
Though China claims its military posture is entirely defensive, its
navy and civilian maritime services have engaged in repeated standoffs
with ships from other nations in the South China and East China seas.
India, meanwhile, says Chinese troops have set up camp almost 20
kilometers (12 miles) into Indian-claimed territory.
It isn't yet known exactly what China's latest drones are capable of,
because, like most Chinese equipment, they remain untested in battle.
The military and associated aerospace firms have offered little
information, although in an interview last month with the official
Xinhua News Agency, Yang Baikui, chief designer at plane maker COSIC,
said Chinese drones were closing the gap but still needed to progress in
half a dozen major areas, from airframe design to digital linkups.
Executives at COSIC and drone makers ASN, Avic, and the 611 Institute
declined to be interviewed by The Associated Press, citing their
military links. The Defense Ministry's latest report on the status of
the military released in mid-April made no mention of drones, and
spokesman Yang Yujun made only the barest acknowledgement of their
existence in response to a question.
"Drones are a new high-tech form of weaponry employed and used by
many militaries around the world," Yang said. "China's armed forces are
developing weaponry and equipment for the purpose of upholding
territorial integrity, national security and world peace. It will pose
no threat to any country."
Drones are already patrolling China's borders, and a navy drone was
deployed to the western province of Sichuan to provide aerial
surveillance following last month's deadly earthquake there.
They may also soon be appearing over China's maritime claims,
including Japanese-controlled East China Sea islands that China
considers its own. That could sharpen tensions in an area where Chinese
and Japanese patrol boats already confront each other on a regular basis
and Japan frequently scrambles fighters to tail Chinese manned
aircraft.
Retired Maj. Gen. Peng Guoqian told state media in January that
drones were already being used to photograph and conduct surveillance
over the islands, called Diaoyu by China and Senkaku by Japan.
The Pentagon says Chinese drones could boost the effectiveness of
long-range radar in monitoring activity and locating targets in the
western Pacific far from the Chinese coast. Their missions could include
guiding home an anti-ship ballistic missile known in military circles
as a "carrier killer," the Pentagon said in its 2012 report on China's
military.
Reports about the search for notorious river bandit Naw Kham, wanted
for the 2011 murders of 13 Chinese sailors, offer some clues about
China's plans for drones.
The head of the Chinese Public Security Ministry's anti-narcotics
bureau, Liu Yuejin, was quoted by state media as saying a plan had been
floated to target Naw Kham's fortified camp with a drone loaded with 20
kilograms of TNT. The type of drone wasn't mentioned.
The plan was dropped by higher-ups in favor of taking Naw Kham alive,
but the revelation served as a statement of Chinese intentions and
capabilities.
China began developing drones in the 1960s and is believed to have
used them for reconnaissance during its brief 1979 invasion of Vietnam.
The program was aided by the adaptation of foreign civilian or dual-use
UAVs for military purposes, then took a leap forward with the purchase
of Harpy drones from Israel. Later, U.S. opposition to Israeli upgrades
on the Harpys spurred China to build its own version.
China's gains are aided by the industry's relatively low costs and
short production schedule and boosted by the assembly of the country's
homebuilt Beidou navigation satellite system and improved high-speed
data links.
China's military is expected to field hundreds, if not thousands, of
drones, although the overall size of the fleet is difficult to estimate
and the U.S. will ultimately have many more.
Chinese UAVs range from simple propeller-driven models to the
high-concept, stealthy Dark Sword, featuring a joined wing and tail
assembly similar to the U.S. Avenger.
More than 90 percent of the Chinese drones now in service are
variants on the simpler ASN-209 surveillance drone seen in navy drills
and which are now being produced under license by Egypt.
Others include the Wing Loong, or Pterodactyl, which bears a striking
resemblance to the U.S. Reaper and carries a brace of missiles. Chinese
media reports and air show staff say it has been exported to countries
in the Middle East and Central Asia, possibly the United Arab Emirates
and Uzbekistan, at just a fraction of the Reaper's price tag of $30
million each.
Military officials in the UAE and Uzbekistan declined to comment on the reports.
Another combat drone being offered for export, the CH-4, has space
for four missiles and is said to be able to fly continuously for 30
hours.
Even more ambitious is the Xiang Long BZK-005, similar to the U.S.
Global Hawk. It has a reported 6,437-kilometer (4,000-mile) range and is
roughly the size of a medium-size fighter jet. Deployment may be some
time off, however, and a 2011 crash points to rumored problems with the
guidance system.
Further developments could see China competing with world's two major
drone producers, the United States and Israel, for markets in close
ally Pakistan, Myanmar and other developing nations. Customers might
even include Russia, which is the world's No. 2 arms exporter but has
had little success making UAVs.
There are some indications China may already be exporting know-how to
Pakistan, given design similarities between Chinese drones and
Pakistan's Shahpar UAV, said Huw Williams, an expert on drones at Jane's
Defence Weekly. However, Williams said China will likely struggle to
find customers for its larger drones, given limited demand and the large
number of countries developing such systems of their own.
"They're very interested in getting into this market," SIPRI's Wezeman said. "Another few years and they will have caught up."
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