Australia's new defence strategy, to be unveiled today, is
expected to maintain funding at historically low levels while seeking to repair
damage to the relationship with China that followed the muscular white paper of
2009, which suggested China was a threat.
The document is likely to propose purchasing at least 12
Super Hornet fighter jets to plug the gap in plans to buy a fleet of 100
delayed Joint Strike Fighters. A fourth air warfare destroyer and further steps
towards selecting a fleet of new submarines are also likely to be confirmed.
The Gillard government's decision to unveil a new Defence
white paper almost a year before it was due, and less than two weeks before the
budget, is seen by analysts as an attempt to maintain a ''steady as she goes''
policy before the election.
''It seems likely this will be a document that's really just
ticking a box because the government said it would do it,'' said Hugh White,
professor of strategic studies at the Australian
National University.
He said it would be a surprise if the government announced
any cuts to Defence expenditure after savage reductions last year.
Many defence analysts believed Defence Minister Stephen Smith's
announcement last year that the new white paper would be produced in 2013,
rather than 2014 as previously expected, was to deflect attention from budget
cuts of $5.5 billion over four years.
Current spending is now 1.56 per cent of GDP - the lowest
since 1938 - and due to fall to 1.49 per cent of GDP next year, a figure not
seen since 1937.
The government's new stance comes as it winds down from
active engagement in Afghanistan,
allowing it to argue that increased short-term spending is not necessary.
Recent reductions are in stark contrast to the 2009 white
paper during Kevin Rudd's prime ministership, which predicted annual real
growth in Defence expenditure of 3 per cent to 2017-18 and 2.2 per cent
thereafter to 2030.
The opposition spokesman on defence, David Johnston, said
today's white paper would have no credibility because the government had ''no
money, no plan and now way forward'' for Defence.
One of the tasks of the new document will be to reassure Australia's
biggest trading partner, China,
that it does not perceive it as a threat - a posture that infuriated the
Chinese in the 2009 paper.
However, Professor White said he was concerned the new paper
would ''go too far the other way''. He said China's
growing power clearly changed the strategic power balance in the Asia-Pacific,
although it did not threaten Australia.
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