National Defence expected to lose some F-35s before all 65 delivered

National Defence scientists predicted in 2011 that the military would have almost certainly lost several of its brand-new F-35 stealth fighters before all 65 were even delivered, Postmedia News has learned.

In December 2011, the Defence Department’s research arm, Defence Research and Development Canada, published a report in which it said “that the probability of having 63 or more (F-35s) remaining at this time (when the last one is delivered) is approximately 54 per cent.”

Canadian military planners had originally expected to take possession of all 65 of this country’s stealth fighters over a staggered six-year period ending in 2022.

The DRDC report, obtained through access to information legislation, appears to also show how many F-35s the military could expect to lose over various time periods, but that information has been blacked out.

National Defence and the Conservative government have resisted budgeting for extra aircraft at the outset because doing so would push the estimated cost of acquiring the F-35 beyond the $9-billion envelope set aside for the purchase.

Instead, the government has made a vague statement about having “retained the option to purchase, or not, replacement aircraft in the future” — even though the report indicates the military would be short of the minimum required aircraft even before the entire fleet is delivered.

Former chief of defence staff Walter Natynczyk and former Royal Canadian Air Force commander Andre Deschamps both previously said 65 F-35s is the bare minimum required to meet the military’s requirements.

The DRDC report says the reason Defence Department scientists predicted the military would lose a number of F-35s in the first few years of operation is because “the rate of losses for any (fighter) aircraft fleet is … higher at the beginning of the fleet’s service life.”

The report adds that the rate of loss generally drops as the manufacturer learns more about the aircraft and fixes unforeseen problems, and as the Canadian Forces and other militaries learn more and change how they use the planes to compensate.

It adds that the information in the report “could be used to help plan for replacement aircraft purchases or to determine how to use the original 65 aircraft.”

The December 2011 report does include the proviso that the analysis was only based on information available at that time.

Officials would not comment specifically on the DRDC report.

Instead, Public Works spokeswoman Annie Duguay noted that a National Defence update on the F-35 project last year  “estimated that seven to 11 aircraft could be lost over the 42-year timeframe, and the cost to replace these lost aircraft could be in the order of $1 billion.”

“Rather than initially acquiring more aircraft than are required, the government has retained the option to purchase or not replacement aircraft in the future,” Duguay wrote, echoing established Conservative government policy.

Those F-35s already in operation in the U.S. have shown some problems since rolling off the assembly line.

The U.S. air force’s entire F-35 fleet were temporarily grounded in February when a crack was found in a test aircraft’s engine, the second such grounding in as many months.

A scathing Pentagon report leaked in March also identified a large number of problems facing the U.S. F-35 fleet, from radars that don’t work, to blurry vision from the aircraft’s sophisticated helmet, to an inability to fly through clouds.

The Pentagon report also found problems with maintaining the F-35s, with mechanics taking two days to replace an engine that is supposed to take two hours, and difficulties when aircraft is stored in temperatures below 15 degrees Celsius.

And it found the aircraft were not as reliable as expected as many required more maintenance than anticipated.

Despite these issues, the Pentagon declared in December that the F-35 was ready to begin extended pilot training while continuing to iron out the identified problems.

The Harper government pushed the reset button on its plans to purchase the F-35 last year.

This came after years of criticism over what has been seen as the Conservatives’ refusal to fully disclose how much the F-35s would cost, and after the auditor general raised serious concerns about the Defence Department’s handling of the file.

Bureaucrats have been ordered back to the drawing board to again examine what missions Canada’s jets will perform in the future, what threats they will face, and what fighter capabilities are currently available.

The Royal Canadian Air Force is leading the review with support from other federal departments, while a panel of independent experts has been tasked with monitoring the process to ensure it is rigorous and impartial.

While no timelines have been laid out, a final report 

The Conservative government has set aside $9 billion to purchase new aircraft to replace the air force’s aging fleet of CF-18 fighters.

National Defence revealed late last year that the cost of not only purchasing, but operating, maintaining and disposing of 65 F-35s through 2052 would be in excess of $45 billion.