A new Pentagon assessment of Iran’s military power maintains that in
two years time, Iran could flight-test an intercontinental ballistic
missile capable of striking the United States, given “sufficient foreign
assistance”, is provided to Tehran. The new assessment reiterated a
longstanding estimate of the U.S. intelligence community. Iran could
test such a missile by 2015 with assistance from nations like North
Korea, China or Russia. Pyongyang is already in the process of
developing the KN-08, an extended range ballistic missile that can reach
the US West Coast. The missile’s range could be extended to provide the
missile an intercontinental strike capability. Pyongyang and Tehran
have been collaborating and exchanging technologies regarding ballistic
missiles and nuclear weapons for many years; both countries are seeking
to match the two technologies to acquire nuclear weapons delivery
capabilities. U.S. experts agree that North Korea and Iran could be
capable of developing and testing few ICBM class missiles based on
liquid propellants, but doubt they could acquire solid-propelled weapon
in the near future. The lengthy pre-flight procedures required for
fuelling liquid-propelled missiles means that such weapons cannot be
mass-fired without warning, as the shorter range missiles could,
therefore, providing the defender time to respond, employ missile
defense or conduct preemptive attack.
An unclassified portion of
the “Annual Report on Military Power of Iran,” dated January 2013 and
made available by the Pentagon today, also states that Iran is
continuing to develop both the “technological capabilities applicable to
nuclear weapons” and “ballistic missiles that could be adapted to
deliver nuclear weapons.” In December 2012 US sources were sceptical
about Iran’s ability to reach such milestone by 2015. Tehran encountered
a major obstacle in 2011, after an explosion killed 21 people during a
test, among the casualties was Hasan Tehrani Moghaddam, who was in
charge of the country’s missile program.
The Defense Department
adds that Iran “continues to develop technological capabilities
applicable to nuclear weapons” and is “proceeding with uranium
enrichment and heavy-water nuclear reactor activities in violation of
multiple U.N. Security Council resolutions.”
Iran “also continues to develop ballistic missiles that could be adapted to deliver nuclear weapons,” it states. Despite “increased pressure resulting from sanctions” imposed by the United Nations, there “has been no change to Iran’s national security and military strategies over the last year,” according to the report.
In the past Iran was reportedly working
on ‘Project Koussar’, a ballistic missile capable of reaching targets at
ranges of 4000 – 5000 km. These missiles, sometime referred to as
Shahab 5 and Shahab 6 were believed to be based on different propulsion
used on the Shahab 3. Some sources indicated the Iranians were erlying
on the RD-216 originally developed for the SS-5 IRBM and also used to
with the Kosmos SL8 satellite launcher.
James Clapper, the director of national intelligence, told the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence last month that “we do not know if Iran will eventually decide to build nuclear weapons.” The U.S. government’s 17 intelligence agencies, according to Clapper, “judge Iran would likely choose a ballistic missile as its preferred method of delivering a nuclear weapon, if one is ever fielded,” he said in the U.S. intelligence community’s annual worldwide threat assessment. These missiles are capable of delivering a weapon of mass destruction, he said.
“In
addition, Iran has demonstrated an ability to launch small satellites,
and we grow increasingly concerned that these technical steps — along
with a regime hostile toward the United States and our allies — provide
Tehran with the means and motivation to develop larger space-launch
vehicles and longer-range missiles, including an intercontinental
ballistic missile,” according to Clapper.
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