The increasing
costs of the new U.S. F-35 fighter is scaring off foreign buyers. The
latest country to express doubts about the cost and effectiveness of the
F-35 versus their current jet fighters (often F-16s) is the
Netherlands. Although the Dutch are buying two F-35s for evaluation,
it’s already been noted that the F-35 costs 60 percent more (than the
F-16, per flight hour) to operate. For European nations, with static or
shrinking defense budgets and growing demands to help with peacekeeping
operations, more expensive (to buy and operate) jet fighters just don’t
fit in.
Initially the F-35 operating costs were supposed to be the
same or lower than other fighters (like the F-16, F-15 or F-18). But
then it was noted that those operating costs were creeping upwards. Two
years ago, after months of contentious disagreement, the U.S. Air Force
came around to agreeing with U.S. Navy claims that the F-35 will cost
much more to maintain, rather than (as the F-35 promoters assert) less.
The year before the U.S. Navy, after nervously watching the
manufacturing costs of the new F-35C and F-35B carrier aircraft
increase, concluded that these aircraft would also be a lot more
expensive to maintain. It comes down to this. Currently, it costs the
navy, on average, $19,000 an hour to operate its AV-8 vertical takeoff
or F-18C fighter aircraft. The navy calculated that it would cost 63
percent more to operate the F-35C (which will replace the F-18C) and the
F-35B (which will replace the AV-8). These costs include buying the
aircraft, training and maintaining the pilots, the aircraft, and
purchasing expendable items (fuel, spare parts, munitions). The navy
concluded that maintenance alone would be about a third more.
The differences between air force and navy cost estimates came
down to different methods of doing maintenance and calculating costs.
The two services have, over the decades, developed different ways to use
civilian maintenance services and stockpiling spare parts. Most navy
warplanes operate from carriers, which is more difficult and expensive
than from a land base. In effect, the navy was forced to become more
efficient in order to afford operating expensive warplanes at all. But
now the air force and navy have resolved a lot of these differences and
agreed that the costs of the "cheaper" F-35 are actually higher.
The U.S. Department of Defense and the U.S. Air Force have
also had disputes over how much each new F-35 fighter will cost. The air
force insists that it is $65 million each, while the Department of
Defense says when all costs are included it will be more like $111
million each. Another number being debated is how many F-35s will
actually be produced. The air force assumes 3,162, but the Department of
Defense is not so sure that many will eventually be built. Total
development cost is now put at $65 billion, which comes to over $20
million per aircraft if 3,162 are built. Development costs for the new
U.S. F-35 fighter-bomber has grown by more than a third over the last
few years. The additional development costs are accompanied by
additional delays. Current estimates are that the F-35 will enter
service in another 3-4 years. The Department of Defense believes
production and development costs will continue to rise and that the
number to be built will decline. Both trends increase the average
aircraft cost. Based on past experience, the higher Department of
Defense estimates are more likely to be accurate.
Like the F-22, which had production capped at less than 200
aircraft, the capabilities, as superior as they are, may not justify the
much higher costs. The F-35, at least for the navy, is headed in the
same direction. The navy can go ahead with the more recent F-18E and
keep refurbishing, or even building, the AV-8. The navy recently began
examining the possibility of buying fewer F-35s, in the long run, and
replacing them with combat UAVs, like the X-47B. Politics, and lobbying
by the F-35 manufacturer, will probably keep the F-35 headed for fleet
service, no matter what the cost.
The 31 ton F-35 is armed with an internal 25mm cannon and four
internal air-to-air missiles (or two missiles and two smart bombs) plus
four external smart bombs and two missiles. All sensors are carried
internally and max weapon load is 6.8 tons. The aircraft is very
stealthy when just carrying internal weapons.
Like the F-22 fighter, the F-35 is stealthy and is stuffed
with a lot of new technology. Most (about 60 percent) of the F-35s built
will be used by foreign nations. The rising cost of the F-35 brings
with it reluctance to buy as many aircraft as currently planned. The
success of smart bombs in Iraq and Afghanistan has also made it clear
that fewer aircraft will be needed in the future. In any event, it's
likely that F-35s will end up costing more than $100 million each.
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