Russia
is spending $30 billion a year on defense and wondering if it is getting its
money’s worth. A recent readiness inspection found serious problems.
Headquarters personnel and troops were not ready for emergencies. Training and
maintenance had not been done. All this is nothing new for the Russian army,
which has always been beset by leadership and corruption problems. The
government has been trying to shake up the military leadership for over a
decade now, but in the last two decades of the Cold War (1947-91) the Russian
military became very corrupt and inefficient. Turning that around has proved
very difficult. Such a situation is not unique, in fact it is quite normal.
The government continues its campaign against political
opponents, by using house arrest (which includes no Internet or mail) for
leaders of the many illegal demonstrations. The government rarely allows legal
protests.
The anti-corruption campaign is faltering. With so many
government officials and businessmen involved in corruption, pushback was
expected. In 2010 there were 10,000 convictions for corruption. That fell to
7,600 in 2011 and 5,500 last year.
Moreover, the government has been putting far fewer people
in jail and instead allowing them to just pay a fine. Last year only 250 people
were charged with taking more than $330 in a corruption scheme. The biggest
cases, where millions of dollars goes missing, are rarely investigated, much
less leading to conviction and imprisonment.
Russia
is sending humanitarian aid to Mali,
and working with Western intelligence and counter-terrorism efforts in Africa.
Russia is
concerned about that huge pot of money (from ransoms and drug smuggling) that
the African Islamic radicals have being used to do some damage inside Russia.
At the same time Russia
is being accused of a double-standard in Syria,
where the beleaguered Assad government (which Russia
has long backed) has always supported terrorists. Russia
insists that the rebels would be more pro-terrorist than the Assads.
February 23, 2013:
Russians are being told by government officials that nearly a trillion dollars
being spent on rebuilding the military over the next decade will enable Russia
to create world class tech industries. Massive purchases by the Russian armed
forces will (it is hoped) enable Russian firms to develop new defense
technology inside Russia
and create more export demand as well. Russia
has already absorbed (mostly legally) a lot of Western tech since the Soviet
Union dissolved in 1991. Russia
is exporting over $10 billion worth of military equipment a year.
Russia
needs a new source of exports because oil and gas are running out. The national
budget is $400 billion a year for a GDP of $2,000 billion. A quarter of that is
raw materials exports, some 80 percent of it oil and gas. This accounts for a
quarter of the national government’s income. Oil and gas income are slowly
shrinking and this predicted tech industry boom is to take up the slack. Russia
has been trying to do this with defense exports for over a decade and is still
stuck in its Cold War position as the cheap, but second best alternative to
Western weapons and equipment. But there is a big market for second best from
countries that are mainly concerned with using troops to keep their own
population under control. Russia,
unlike most Western defense suppliers, has no problem with paying bribes and
offers cheap loans for buyers.
February 22, 2013:
China joined Russia
in making it clear both opposed military intervention because of North
Korea’s recent nuclear weapons test.
February 21, 2013:
The government agreed to lease Cuba
eight jet transports, worth nearly $700 million. Russia
got this deal by agreeing to write off some of the $20 billion Cuba
still owns for past (mostly Cold War era) purchases. The leasing fees will have
to be paid on time, of course, or the aircraft will be repossessed. Before the
Cold War ended in 1991 Russia
had kept the Cuban economy afloat for three decades with generous amounts of
aid. That all stopped after 1991 and, of course, Cuba
was unable to pay for the billions of dollars of additional items it had bought
from Russia on
credit. Cuba
defaulted on everyone after 1991 and still has a dismal credit rating.
February 15, 2013:
A large meteorite exploded over central Russia,
injuring over a thousand people. Some members of parliament blamed the United
States, while others called for the military
to develop a system that would spot these small meteorites and shoot them down.
Legislators, and many other Russians, were upset by the fact that meteor
incidents like this occur about once a century and that the last one, in 1908,
also occurred in Russia.
That meteor was larger. While the recent one produced the equivalent of 500
kilotons of explosives, the 1908 one produced 50 times more energy and would
have destroyed any urban area underneath it. Fortunately, the 1908 event
occurred over northern forests and simply blew down 80 million trees and killed
thousands of large animals. The Russian military is unlikely to undertake the
expensive, and likely to fail, task of developing an “anti-meteor” system.
February 14, 2013:
The government bowed to public pressure and agreed not to send conscripts to
combat zones. Only “contract soldiers” (higher paid volunteer troops) will do
combat, unless there is a general war. As a result of this new policy, combat
training of conscripts will be reduced from six to four months.
In the Caucasus (Dagestan)
a suicide bomber killed four policemen. Police operations after that attack
found and surrounded the terrorists responsible and killed six of them.
February 13, 2013:
In the Caucasus (Dagestan) a policeman was shot and
wounded by an Islamic terrorist.
February 12, 2013:
Despite Russian protests North Korea
carried out a third nuclear weapons test.
February 11, 2013:
Japan
complained once more of Russian military aircraft (two Il-38 patrol planes)
approaching Japanese air space then turned away at the last minute. When this
happens Japan
has to send two or more jet fighters aloft, an expensive process that would be
avoided if the Russians would stop playing these silly games. The Russians said
they did nothing wrong.
February 9, 2013:
In St. Petersburg police arrested nearly 300 people on suspicion of supporting
Islamic terrorism. About a third of those picked up were illegal migrants.
February 8, 2013:
South Korean officials were told that Russia
had asked North Korea
not to carry out a nuclear weapons test.
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