Rosoboronexport would be high among the competing companies
for a $10 billion deal to supply new generation submarines.
India
is set to loosen its purse strings for some big ticket arms acquisitions in the
coming months. The latest order about to come out from the Indian repertoire is
for submarines, which is going to be worth a whopping ten billion US dollars.
The Russians will be close competitors for this deal and Rosoboronexport of
Russia would be high up among the competing companies. Other serious contenders
would be HDW of Germany and Navantia of Spain.
Earlier this year, India
had released a 15 billion dollar defence deal which went to the French, much to
the chagrin of the Russians and other players in the international arms market.
In February 2012, India
had awarded the highly lucrative deal worth $15 billion to the French company
Dassault Aviation for 126 fighter aircraft for the Indian Air Force. The
talks with Dassault on fastening the nuts and bolts of the deal are presently
going on.
The upcoming defence deal is for the Indian Navy. It is
aimed at buying six state-of-the-art submarines, mainly with an eye on China.
The deal with Dassault for 126 fighter aircraft too was aimed at developing
Indian defence capabilities vis-a-vis
China.
Project 75I
The Indian government is soon going to come up with a
Request for Proposal (RFP) for six next generation submarines. Indian Navy
Chief Admiral DK Joshi has gone on record as saying that the Defence
Acquisition Council a high-powered body of the defence ministry, has already
given the green signal for buying six submarines under a project codenamed
P-75I and a global tender would be floated “very soon”.
This will be a huge opportunity and a challenge for the
Russians to bag the deal because the RFP would be a global competitive bid
process in which the winner takes all. The Russians and the French are expected
to be among the top contenders. Both would have plus and minus points for
getting the deal, and needless to say, no country would like to miss the bus.
Russia
to Face Stiff Competition from France
Russia
will inevitably face a stiff competition from the French for the new submarines
deal. The French have an edge because they are already building six Scorpene
submarines for India.
The argument for them is that since they are already working on a submarine
project with India
it would be logical to have continuity as the French already have an elaborate
infrastructure in place. But the flip side is that the upcoming $10 billion
submarine deal would be a global competitive bid. It is like playing an entirely
new match on a new turf where it would depend on which players emerge as
performers of the day.
The Russian USP would be that India
is already operating over a dozen Russian-made submarines and Russia
is a tried, tested and trusted arms supplier for India.
The latest order, as an when it materialises, is aimed at significantly beefing
up the muscle of the Indian Navy whose existing humble submarine fleet
comprises of just 10 Russian Kilo-class, four German HDWs and an Akula-2
nuclear-powered attack submarine leased from Russia at $1 billion. This will be
in addition to the six Scorpene submarines which are being built in India
with technology from Dassault under a project codenamed P-75.
A USP of the new to-be-ordered submarines, according to
Admiral Joshi, would be that these would be bigger than the Scorpene and
would be equipped with air-independent propulsion (AIP) systems to recharge
their batteries without having to surface for more than three weeks. Besides,
the new boats would also have land attack missile capability.
INS Chakra’s Delimitations
The Indian submarine fleet got a valuable addition when INS
Chakra, the nuclear submarine from Russia
was finally inducted in April 2012, thus once again heralding the Indian Navy
into the nuclear age after an interregnum of two decades. However there is a
flip side to INS Chakra, the Akula-2 class submarine given by Russia
to India on a
lease for ten years. INS Chakra cannot be armed with strategic weapons or
nuclear tipped ballistic missiles. Its symbolic importance is that it will
certainly help India
keep a watchful eye on the vast expanse of Indian Ocean
which of late has emerged as the epicentre of global naval activities.
India,
a principal littoral state with fourth largest naval fleet in the world, needs
to have a robust navy in Indian Ocean and beyond
considering the rapid advancements of the Chinese Navy. China
is stepping up its naval presence in the Indian Ocean
though it is not an Indian Ocean power. China
has almost five dozen submarines, including a dozen nuclear submarines, which
give them a head start over India
in naval terms.
The Russian Edge
The upcoming RFP for the six submarines is aimed at
correcting this anomaly. India,
which at one point of time had 18 submarines, is now down to just 14
submarines, including ten Sindhughosh class Russian Kilo submarines and four
Shishumar class German HDW diesel submarines. For 17 years India
did not construct indigenous submarines. Further bad news from the Indian
perspective is that its submarine fleet is expected to go down to half as the
Kilo class submarines acquired in late eighties are facing retirement after two
and half decades of service.
Under the six-submarine Scorpene deal, India
is expecting to get the first two submarines in 2014 and 2015. The delivery
schedule for all the six boats is likely to be completed by 2019. But the flip
side is that the first two out of six would be simple diesel submarines and the
next four would be equipped with Air Independent Propulsion (AIP) technology
called MESMA in French parlance.
This is where the Russians can smell the kill for the new
$10 billion submarine deal. While the Scorpene deal with the French did not
focus on the AIP technology, the proposed deal would have all six submarines
equipped with AIP technology. The Russian engineers have already mastered
the AIP technology, in vogue for the past one decade. India
has retained Russian engineers since 2011 in Vishakhapatnam
to understand complex operational aspects of a nuclear powered submarine.
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