The US
Navy and allies just completed a 12-day mine clearing exercise in the Strait of
Hormuz. While the military avoided mentioning the standoff with Iran, the
message was clear.
The
allied nations were here and would do anything it takes to keep this critical
21-mile channel open.
It was
August when I put up a post saying I wanted to attend this week's Persian Gulf
mine clearing exercise.
After
reporting Iran's incessant threats to mine the Strait of Hormuz and choke the
global oil supply, I wanted some reality.
I
thought the words out of Iran would have a different meaning 50 miles offshore
of the Islamic Republic, and would carry greater weight to the troops sailing
through the Strait on a regular basis.
I
expected answers. Some concrete, hang-your-hat-on opinions and experience from
U.S. Naval troops that would give face to the threat.
To that
end, I was disappointed. I mean, I should have known better. Known that the
lower ranks are so busy performing the mission that they have little time to
consider anything else. And the upper ranks aren't going to express anything
outside policy: "The Iranian Navy has been nothing but professional and
courteous," was the inescapable line last week.
When I
asked why the enlisted troops I spoke to had little awareness of what was
happening in the Gulf, one Navy Lieutenant Commander told me, "We need
them to be occupied every second of every day." He was referring to
keeping sailors from dwelling on home and family and preserving morale, but the
effect applies to current events, as well.
Most
sailors had little idea of Iran's bluster. And the few I talked to who were
aware, just shrugged and laughed. "Doesn't matter much," they said.
"The mission is the mission." In the end, it's still hot and they
still get paid.
Fear is
something that may flicker through the cockpit of an F/A-18 desperate to find
its mark on a carrier deck at night, or appear full blown for an instant during
one of the disfiguring accidents that plague carrier flight crew, but it rarely
settles in for the night.
Still
this fails to explain how complex marine mines are, and how daunting the task
of neutralizing them really is. With about a dozen variations, knowing a mine
is laid remains only a fraction of the fight. Magnetic, resonant, triggered …
there are mines for every occasion.
Several
admirals we spoke with pointed out how it costs as little as $1,000 to $1,500
to create a marine mine that could cause billions of dollars in damage. It's an
almost romantic idea; biblical in its David-like ambition, but perhaps
unlikely.
What
officials refer to when they mention this figure and contraption is an animal
bladder filled with fuel, placed near the surface of the sea. While not only
being easy to identify but difficult to control and ignite, surface mines lack
a formidable favor of physics.
The
deeper a mine, the greater the pressure imposed upon it by the water above,
which results in a more powerful explosion when it detonates.
Just one
of many slippery perceptions out here in the Gulf about a device that invites
no easy answers.
If Iran
does manage to dump a string of mines into the Strait without the U.S. stopping
them, it will take a long, long time to conclude an acceptable risk of passage.
And as
one Navy LT,—an oceanographer—told me, that is what it will come down to:
acceptable risk. I pressed him, "So what? Eighty percent, 70, 65 percent
secure? What's the number that sends commercial traffic back through the
strait? Is it even a number?"
"I
don't know," he admitted. "But, yes, it is a number."
Acceptable
risk. If you're crewing a vessel through the Strait, you may want to check your
company's insurance policy.
As
simple as it sounds, the only way to know all the mines are gone is to see that
nothing explodes. If one gets missed, chances are someone will find it, but
that won't keep the strait from serving global vessels and ensuring tankers
make their way to the marketplace.
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