Syria (as China see’s it) Tipping the balance – one-sided weigh-in from the West

The persistent crisis in Syria is rooted in constant wrestling between the Syrian government and the opposition.

For both the Chinese government and experts on Middle Eastern issues, the persistent crisis in Syria is rooted in constant wrestling between the Syrian government and the opposition. A “sustainable” and “genuine” ceasefire can thus be achieved only through dialogue and the joint effort of conflicting parties. Any externally imposed demand for one party to cease violence without the other party making the same commitment risks giving rise to an “imbalanced” and “partial” approach that is likely to exacerbate violence in the country.

Internal time-bomb

Many Chinese experts have examined the ongoing violence by looking into the fragmentary nature of Syrian opposition forces. China’s former ambassador to Egypt and Tunisia An Huihou divides Syria’s opposition into three diffuse groups.

“The first is the Overseas Military Committee composed of political exiles, which carries no significant influence in domestic issues and is undermined by internal disputes. The second is the National Coordinating Committee, which denounces violence and advocates dialogue with the government.” The Free Syrian Army constitutes the third and most intricate opposition force, with inclinations towards military combat.

He concluded that with no centralized or authoritative power to direct or coordinate a ceasefire between these three opposition forces and the Syrian government, implementation of a ceasefire is a thorny mission.

External pressure

External military assistance has only strained the already delicate relations between the various opposition forces and the Syrian government.

Like many Chinese experts, An maintained that external intervention in the form of financial and military assistance to the Syrian opposition is a fundamental cause of ongoing violence in the country. He noted that while reports suggest that the Syrian government has not withdrawn its troops from larger cities or fully implemented the six points of Kofi Annan’s peace plan, opposition forces are also stirring unrest.

In his description of the ongoing war dynamic in Syria, “armed forces of the opposition, with the support and assistance of some Western and Arab countries, continue to instigate attacks targeting the Bashar al-Assad regime, drawing in turn the government’s reciprocal counter-attacks and suppression.” As a result, ceasefire has been overshadowed by violence in the country, despite both sides’ acceptance of Annan’s peace plan and truce agreement.

In effect, the US and the Arab League pledged to provide Syrian opposition groups with financial and technical assistance in April, with Hillary Clinton stating publicly that material support to opposition groups “will not sabotage Annan’s ongoing efforts to reach a peaceful solution” to the crisis. As An noted, “alongside salaries and weaponry worth 200-300 million US dollars from the Gulf countries, the armed opposition also received so-called non-lethal material assistance worth 25 million US dollars from the United States, including night-vision goggles and other materials.”

In the summit meeting of the Friends of Syria on April 4, 2012, the US announced that it will contribute 12 million US dollars to the Syrian opposition, twice as much as it promised before. In contrast, China pledged emergency humanitarian aid worth two million US dollars to Syria on March 9.

Even before China’s veto, China and Russia saw the UN Security Council resolution, drafted by Western countries and the Arab League, as imposing a one-sided demand on the Syrian regime while overlooking the joint responsibility of the opposition to do the same. This also explains why the two countries decided not to attend the summit meeting of the Friends of Syria in February 2012, which is often seen as a partisan pro-opposition group in league with Western and Arab powers, thus mocked as being the “Foes of Syria” by some.

Wu Bingbing, Director of the Institute of Arab-Islamic Culture Studies of Peking University and Deputy Director & Associate Professor of the Department of Arabic Language and Culture of Peking University, also criticized certain Western countries for “deliberately pushing for regime change in Syria by means of external forces.”

According to Wu, “the existing regime has secured support from at least half of the Syrian population in different sectors” (Shia Alawis from within the Syrian ruling regime, which in turn represent 12% of the entire Syria population; 4% of other Shiite sects; Christians, which account for 10% of the population; and the largely middle-class Sunnis, who are relatively privileged in the existing political system).

He therefore argues that the West is trying to “conceal the reality in Syria by excessively portraying the Syrian crisis as a sectarian conflict.” He adds further that even if “certain Western countries superficially support and incite the opposition to push for regime change, the social, economic, cultural and demographic structure of Syria cannot be changed.”

Towards a true ceasefire

While the two sides have accepted Annan’s peace proposal and agreed to a ceasefire at the end of March, sporadic attacks across Syria have continued to make news headlines. An Huihou added that while media reports have headlined the Syrian government as having violated the truce agreement and shelled major cities, violent actions instigated by the opposition were omitted in mainstream Western coverage.

As the head of the UN Observer Mission to Syria, Major General Robert Mood warned after his arrival in Damascus on April 29 that even 1,000 unarmed observers cannot end the violence in the country unless there is a mutual commitment from both sides.

Nevertheless, as international discourse has shifted and pressure has mounted on the Syrian factions to seek political dialogue, the Syrian government held parliamentary elections in 15 constituencies across the country on May 7, the first since a new constitution was promulgated this February. This was described by the majority of Western media as the first multi-party parliamentary elections in the country since the Arab Baath Socialist Party rose to power decades ago.

Experts however cast doubt on the effectiveness of the elections. As Ma Weigong remarked, alongside the opposition’s claims that they would boycott the elections, the actual implementation of the multi-party elections remains to be observed and should “neither be overestimated nor underestimated.” Dr Wang Suolao also noted that since the ruling Ba'ath Party was the main winner, the elections are naturally deemed “unfair” by the opposition and Western countries, which will therefore continue to stir trouble for the ruling government. But as he and experts such as An and Ma have highlighted in echo of China’s official statement, the crux of the issue is whether the Syrian government and opposition can commit themselves to “negotiations without any preconditions or predetermined results.”