CIA, Secret Intelligence Report
CIA Director William Casey sends a "quick assessment on possible military aspects of the Falkland affair, the forces in or available in the area" to Secretary of State Haig:
"The Argentines successfully invaded the Falkland Islands this morning; some 200-350 Argentine Marines with armored vehicles evidently went ashore near Port Stanley and airborne units reportedly secured the local airfield. There is also information that three Argentine ships are in the harbor at nearby Port Williams. The Argentines may be debarking as many as 500-1000 well-armed troops from the task force, [four lines excised]." [….]
"We also do not believe the Argentines would fare well in a full scale-naval engagement with the British, particularly in view of the nature of the forces the British are preparing to send to the Falklands." [….]
"The invasion has probably strengthened Galtieri's standing within the military, especially the Navy and among predominantly nationalist political opponents who have long advocated invading the Falklands. We expect this support to continue…Like Thatcher, Galtieri probably calculates that he will have to avoid appearing to waver or risk serious domestic and international political costs. The Argentines see a direct correlation between a tough – and successful – effort on the Falklands and success in their Beagle dispute with Chile. Similarly, they believe a defeat on the Falklands would be an enormous setback in the Chile dispute, thus doubling their stake in the current confrontation. "
April 2, 1982 – Falklands Islands Situation Report # 4
CIA, Top Secret Situation Report
This report begins with an excision of more than twenty lines and continues with two veiled sections about Argentine forces on the ground:
"2. Argentine military forces on the main islands continue to dig in."
[Eight lines excised] [….]
"Comment: The Argentines continue to prepare for the arrival of British forces in the area later this month."
[Six lines excised]"
No comments:
Post a Comment