UK - Scrapping Trident 'would save £84bn'

Cancelling the like-for-like replacement of the UK's nuclear deterrent would save £83.5bn over the next 50 years, according to a report produced for the British American Security Information Council (BASIC).

Defence economist professor Keith Hartley was commissioned to investigate the skills, employment, technology and regional impacts of various options regarding replacement of the deterrent, including the option of not replacing Trident at all.

Hartley estimated that the costs of the like-for-like replacement of the system until 2062 would amount to an average of £1.86bn a year, including maintenance.

Government estimates currently put the capital costs of designing and building the submarines at over £20bn.

Replacing the existing deterrent with a cruise missile system based around four new Astute class submarines would cost around £56.5bn over the same period, Hartley wrote, although he acknowledged it would be a less effective deterrent.

The consequences of outright cancellation of the system would include difficulties in maintaining the submarine engineering skills base, and Hartley recommended that engineers should be given alternative work in submarine maintenance or, if possible, the building of surface ships between orders for hunter-killer submarines.

Ultimately, he wrote, the skills and employment impacts of Trident were not "the main policy objectives" of defence procurement and that the submarine industry had ample time to adjust to any cancellation.

"Such procurements are about the contributions of various equipment programmes to UK security, protection and peace," he wrote.

"…Even with a Trident cancellation in 2016, there will remain substantial work on the Astute class SSNs to around 2024/25 resulting in an adjustment period of some 8-10 years. Such a lengthy adjustment period allows time for appropriate public policies to be introduced to ease any adjustment costs."

BASIC's Trident Commission, led by former defence secretaries Malcolm Rifkind and Des Browne, as well as former Lib Dem leader Menzies Campbell, is currently carrying out a study of options for Britain's nuclear deterrent, including alternative systems and the effects of cancellation.

The commission's study is separate to a review of alternative systems currently being carried out by the Cabinet Office, reporting to Liberal Democrat Armed Forces Minister Nick Harvey.

Earlier this week the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament created an online game which highlighted what the CND believe would have to be cut in order fund the capital costs of replacing the Trident programme.